Two-Gun Pete

I'll add my voice to those who hated the Pilkington giveaway, the Rodon giveaway, and the fact that Lynn is a fat fuck. Here's hoping that: 1. Lynn gets back soon, 2. Kopech surprises us with how many IP he can produce, 3. Katz can "fix" Lopez, and 4. RH can miracle a trade for pieces using MiLBs worst system. Godspeed.

Ok, I didn't see a question here, but you raise a fair point: What would be an "A grade" for the offseason? To me, I would grade an "A" as follows: 1. Closed most obvious roster holes for the current season. 2. Improved roster or financial flexibility for future seasons. 3. Extended core pieces at reasonable prices. 4. Improve the coaching staff. 5. Made all the correct choices WRT QOs/options/arb cases 6. Improved overall roster depth and versatility. IOW, made the talent level and coaching staff BETTER. Just the fact that they shit their pants on #5, and made the team worse is a failure for this FO. Now, looking at Lynn's injury, do you still think they made the right choice between Rodon and Kimbrel? A "C grade" would have at least MAINTAINED the same relative talent level. I dont see this as the case. A "F grade" is that they've made the team worse and more expensive. Dude, quit belaboring this point. We'll see how an old NL guy with an injury history does with us. We've seen old NL types shit their pants here before. I get that you're super-stoked about this move, and thats cool. I'm "meh" about it, for reasons we've already discussed.

Your previous post asked only about defensive parameters, and so I'd addressed it that way. On the defensive metrics, OAA definitely has it's virtues, but one flaw it has for OF defense is that it doesn't account for the effect of the player's throwing abilities. With respect to RF defense in particular, this is more cogent to an OFers ability in right than in left. With respect to the arms of Pollock and Pederson, their ARM stats are both negative, but Pederson is -1.6 for a career, while Pollock is -12.5 for a career. This isn't indicative of their throwing abilities in full, to be sure. But it does suggest at why Pederson has been played in RF more than Pollock heretofore. And to be fair, I do enjoy that OAA makes a reasonable attempt to measure range and catch probability. Offensively, once again I'll admit I'm ageist against older players, and especially against older NL players coming over. With Joc, he is LH, and has had some success vs RHP, though he hasn't had his better seasons of late. But, at 29, I don't think he's washed up yet. For Pollock, we've seen older NL types fail here. Also, Pollock’s BABIP for 2021 suggests that he's due for some luck-related regression, in addition to any age-related regression. On the RFer that I'd preferred, at an AAV of $17MM/per, all hed have to be to be "worth his contract" (assuming a cost of $8.5Mm/WAR) is to be a ~1.8 fWAR player. IOW, worse than the hated Leury Garcia was in 2021. At that salary, if that player is closer to his projections, he could be re-marketed to restart the next rebuild. Also, I don't consider Colas or Cespedes to be a barrier, in any case. If the player I wanted for RF were here and Colas/Cespedes become MLB players, then at that point Eloy could have moved off LF by then. It never hurts to have more than one good OFer at a time.

And, we can disagree to the degree that the FO has addressed the router's issues. I believe that Harrison isn't much of a fit or a solution, and I think that Pollock has his share of questions as well. That said, at no point did I state that the object of the offseason was to make a "perfect roster;" it was your statement. And lastly, while I believe that backup catcher is a hole, I also put it after RF and 2B.

I didn't see a question mark in your post. Looking back at your post, the point isn't to wish for a "perfect roster," as per your statement. Its to make use of the offseason to improve the roster where it had holes.

Fangraphs has the blown save metric at 15th... Or are you looking at something else? Holds were 9th-best in MLB, but perhaps some of that was on Kimbrel himself? Edit: and I can agree that the way the unit was handled, and some of the sequencing was suboptimal as well.

Look at the defensive stats at catcher for this team. Yes, some of that was down to Grandal being ouchy last season. But, this has been an under-appreciated issue with this team, when you take a look at where we are compared to our enemies. As Grandal ages, this can become a bigger issue, IMO.

I can agree with this.

I can agree with much of your post, but WRT the BP, the 2021 SOX were among the league leaders in WAR from the pen, despite that group producing the fewest IP in MLB. It was not a weak bullpen, by any measure. While it could perhaps have used some depth (as all contending teams do), at no point was closer a point of weakness. Rather, having the most expensive bullpen in MLB history (with Kimbrel) WAS an expensive luxury. Especially with DHs in the OF, and Harrison or Hernandez as the starting 2B, and Collins as backup to Grandal. Without Kimbrel, the pen remains an expensive luxury, compared to the obvious holes mentioned above.

Eh, 4.05 FIP last season, although that was in the NL in SF. I'd still take a flier on him over Velasquez.

In my view, all of these strengths were already in place now, at the beginning of the offseason, at the TDL, and at last offseason. They've done nothing to improve the weaknesses in the roster, in all of that time. And, there have been two spots where talent and fit have been lacking: RF and 2B. With the loss of Rodon, we can tack on SP as well. I think it is well within our bounds as fans of this team and as posters here to have two thoughts at the same time: 1. We're excited about the talent that was already in place. 2. We're disappointed in the heuristics that have lead to a TDL and Offseason that have made the team worse.

The difference in the two teams' windows is a fair point. But, Colas & Cespedes are prospects, and for as excited as we all once were on Adolfo, they're more likely to become Adolfo-level players than they are to become MLB contributors. Especially in the SOX's window, which I believe is only as long as Giolito is here. Insofar as market behaviors go, we can all agree that there has been a dire need for a RFer for ~15 or so years in this org. There also has been a dire need for a RFer during the entirety of this competitive window. When there is market interest in a player at a position of need during a competitive window, it behooves a prudent person to at least look into that player.

No, not moving the goalposts. You're just defending an incorrect viewpoint for some unknown reason, rather than accepting that that view was wrong, and moving on. So: Where was the need for a closer? The answer was that there was none, and they should have spent LESS time looking at Kimbrel than a 95 year old impotent man should look at condoms. And, we also covered LAD and TB's reasons for looking at Kimbrel: LAD had lowish fWAR out of their pen, and questionable health out of their pen at the TDL. Tampa uses the FUCK out of their RPs, and looks into pretty much every available RP. Both also had surpluses to market, while NO ONE wanted the SOX to trade from the 26 man. On Suzuki, there has been a need for a RFer since JD lost his ability to run. So once again, RF has been a DIRE need. Closer has not. The two situations are nothing alike. I'm not moving the goalposts, you're simply defending a viewpoint that is and was wrong.

I'm sure they are locked into these two. Had this team's window appeared to be open longer, then perhaps those two could be part of the window's calculus. But we really don't know enough about either to make a decision at this point, insofar as whether either can be a contributor BEFORE Giolito and TA take better contracts elsewhere. I've maintained that this org has needed a RFer since JD lost his ability to move. Whats more, the current team in this window has needed a RF since before they stupidly traded for Mazara, or signed Eaton (who was younger than Pollock when he returned here), when they cut Eaton, at the TDL, and this offseason. This current group has needed a RFer for NOW, not wait for some 'spects to maybe make it. And yes, I admit there is some risk with the player Id preferred, but he's a better risk for 2022 than either Cespedes or Colas. We can worry about 2023 or 2024 when they come, and likely, TA and Giolito are gone or on their way out.

I knew you'd come up with this. Key difference: The SOX have basically needed a RFer since Jermaine Dye lost his mobility. The SOX had zero need for an expensive closer the heartbeat they acquired Hendriks. See? One move would have solved a dire need, while we've already seen the other become an abject failure at conception. One could help the team now and for 4 years beyond that, the other actively hurt this team.

Most likely, watch them become the next Micker Adolfo. Or, if either make The Show, move one to LF, move Eloy to DH, have really, really good OF defense for a fucking change, and trade whoever doesn't have a spot.

5/$85MM, + the posting fee for a 27 year old that better scouting departments than the SOX's all wanted. So yes, I admit there are risks with this or any FA acquisition. But I would rather gamble on a 27 year old who performed to a star level, and who was pursued by better and smarter FOs than this one.

That's not a bad thought, TBH.

1. RH made bad decisions that lead to him making other bad decisions this offseason. This move is just a "meh," in my view. 2. To your questions, Joc Pederson is LH, younger, costs ~$9MM less, has played RF more than Pollock, doesn't get hurt as much as Pollock, and can play good defense. With the ~$9MM in savings, they also could have acquired a better SP than Velasquez, instead of trading from a weak MiLB system to maybe get a SP from Oakland, and then hope he doesn't turn into a turd when he leaves their pitcher-friendly park. And as you mentioned, for a bit more AAV than Pollock, they could have had Suzuki.

When he was acquired, I was stupid enough to believe RH's bullshit about "multiple championships;" I assumed he was either telling us the truth, or speaking about WS championships, not ALC championships. That said, there was a need for Lynn in the rotation, and he was good at his job when he was acquired. For Kimbrel, apart from a few lucky months in the 1st half of 21, Kimbrel had generally sucked at baseball with the scrubs. There also was zero need for him, whatsoever. So, they're nothing alike. That said, I'll admit that I'm ageist with respect to professional athletes. I never want to acquire any player who is >32 years old; I'm comfortable with the risk of missing once or twice, rather than acquiring Encarnacion/Eaton/Harrison.

1. I think that posters' relief at not having Kimbrel here is overstating the positive here. We've seen old man acquisitions fall on their faces every year since Edwin Encarnacion. We've seen NL types forget how to hit when they come here. We've seen oft-injured guys remain injured. So, that's why I'm "meh" about this. 2. No, it isn't. For roughly the same AAV, there could have been a better fit. For less cash, there could have been a better fit. It was ill-conceived to acquire Kimbrel in the first place, and it was ego that drove them to pick up his option. 3. Sure. Hes at least an OF, so there's that. But everyone faster than Konerko will run on him, that is, as long as he stays healthy.

I was one of those people who thought it was stupid to trade for him in the first place, and then to pick up his option. I also don't care what Colas or Cespedes do or don't do in the future, because I believe that this competitive window lasts only as long as Giolito is here. (IOW, through 2023.) So, yes, they could have gotten a better-fitting player who is young enough to not be a serious injury/age-related decline risk. And, for not much more on an AAV basis. We'll see.

Nah, I will. A year ago in ST, I doubted the previous 2-legged Hippo Carlos Rodon to take care of his body and to throw strikes. I was wrong about that, and thats fine. With Pollock, I think some here are being a bit irrationally exuberant. Yes, Pollock can play OF, but he's a LF/CF, not a RF. He's oft-injured, and he's old. So while its "better" that he's here than Kimbrel being here, he's not exactly an ideal fit. So, will others currently throwing roses at RH's feet for this move likewise eat crow if/when Pollock plays poorly, or his a poor fit, or gets injured? We'll see.

For me, its still an "F." Yes, they got rid of a guy they never should have gotten in the first place, who didn't want to be here this year, and who didn't really have a role with Hendriks here. And, congrats to RH for getting something for Kimbrel. But, I think its fair to be dubious about an oft-injured, 34 year old LFer, who just might have had a fortunate 2021. (In terms of his ability to continue to kick Father Time's ass, and to play RF.) Its still an "F," but instead of being like a ~10% result on a test, its a ~40% score on a test. IOW, its still "failing," but a higher score.

I mean, 30 points difference in BA isn't all that similar over a career. And yes, there would be a risk in signing Suzuki, but who's scouting department do you trust more, the scrubs or this one? I'd still gamble on Suzuki over Pollock for RF.