Two-Gun Pete

Dude, I'm glad you don't take my joking personally. But, your argument is the equivalent of: 1. Fangraphs is wrong, 2. DRS is wrong, 3. INSIDE Edge is wrong. The Hawk's Magnificent Eye Test, and ONLY The Hawk's Magnificent Eye Test matters. Look, if there was only one source that shows that Mazara sucks, that would be one thing. But when you willfully ignore PILES of evidence, you become the MLB fan equivalent of antivaxxers or COVID hoaxers. Also, no one "hates" Mazara, thats a cop-out. When the overwhelming majority of evidence says he sucks, it probably means that he sucks.

Yeah, I'd misremembered that. And you guys are right about not having burned an option. That said, I remain convinced that this club should: 1. let go of Gonzalez & Rodon, and sign Stroman and Q, 2. Send Cease to Charlotte to get his shit sorted using his last option, 3. Go stretch out Crochet in Birmingham or Charlotte, and 4. Sign another reliever, to give Crochet the time and space to find out if he CAN be stretched out. After watching them try to "develop SPs @ the big league level," but then watch Fulmer fail, Rodon fail, Lopez fail, and now Cease beginning the failure curve, Im fücking sick of watching the cavalcade of failure. You may be right that Hahn moronically wants to keep doing the same stupid shit with Crochet that they did with the others. But I keep praying that these imbeciles in the FO finally figure out how to bring young SPs into MLB, & get them to actually succeed. What they've been doing just sucks, full stop.

Couple things: 1. Are you related to Mazara? I ask this because overall, he kinda sucks. 2. With respect to the bolded, if you don't like DRS, look at the Inside Edge numbers. Mazara gets to exactly NONE of the "unlikely" chances (10% - 40% types). This illustrates that he has no range. His arm is mediocre as well. 3. In sum, he's a poor-fielding corner OF who needs a platoon partner, a defensive sub late in games, and a pinch runner. There are plenty of players with fewer flaws that are available for less money.

I think your use of caps lock is impressive. I also think that the two WS teams this year have shown the value of pitching depth, and I would like the White Sox to also acquire a metric fück-ton of it this offseason. I also think I would rather eventually give the big contract to Giolito at some point, rather than watch him sign elsewhere, because the SOX blew their payroll flexibility wad on Bauer. I think Stroman and Q are the two SPs the SOX need to provide a combined ~340 - 380 IP of ~3.0 - 4.0 FIP, while Cease sorts his shit out/Crochet gets stretched out in Charlotte. Also, i think Rodon and his greedy agent would be better off to try to find a more competent team to figure him out elsewhere, while 2021 can be Lopez's last chance in this roster, since Lopez no longer has any option years remaining. YMMV.

WRT the bolded, I have to admit that I'm confused. Who did they sign to "guaranteed contracted," that I'm suggesting go to Charlotte? Insofar as Crochet goes, its easier to start the "stretching out" process in MiLB than in the 26 man, when you're trying to compete. Whats more, with Crochet having appeared in MLB this year, you've already burned 1 option out of 3. 2021 you burn a second, & 2022 will be his last option year. That doesn't leave a lot of margin for error in his development. What if he struggles while in Chicago in 2021? What if he gets injured? What if his secondary stuff isn't quite ready for prime time? What if he's tipping pitches, but we don't yet know it? What if the league figures him out, & crushes his confidence? From my view, it would be better for his development to start him in MiLB in 21 to start stretching him out. He can clearly pitch out of the BP now, but he could eventually provide more value as a starter. Whats more, this org has shat themselves in terms of SP development; Rodon with his injuries, but ALSO his inability to locate his FB & come up with a reliable 3rd pitch was a failure. Lopez's strike-throwing allergy, and taking away his curve looks like a failure. Cease's walking the yard looks like a failure in the making. And all 3 did so/are doing so while burning through their option years. Why not take a more sober view towards developing Crochet? Why must they shit themselves with SP development over and over and over again? We've seen that movie several times before, & I think we should be sick of the sequels. Its for this reason that I'd rather sign the additional BP arm, & try to use 2021 to maximize Crochet's potential value. If whomever you sign takes a Herrera on the roster, you can always DFA whomever you sign, & then bring up Crochet after a few weeks/months of stretching out. If whomever you sign takes a giant Cease on the team, well then, Crochet will be on a quick flight from Charlotte or Birmingham.

I agree, they need 2 legit starters, not one great (but expensive) starter. I favor Q/Stroman for this offseason. I then ship Cease and his vomit-inducing 5+ BB/9 the fvkc down to Charlotte, with the express orders that he doesn't see MLB again until he gets his shit sorted. I also want to make use of his (I think) only remaining option to do so. I think you then only have to suffer through a competition between Dunning and Lopez for the 5th SP. I think Lambert and Stiever have options, so off they go to Charlotte. Insofar as the BP goes, I think Colome is as good as is available now for the closer. But, my rule of thumb is that EVERY offseason you need to add a bullpen arm or two. So, it may be 2 BP arms, or 3. Remember that Crochet will be better served to try to stretch him out to be a SP. Also, I feel like Bummer hasnt been injured since I started this post, so he'll likely be due for another one by the time the season starts.

After JR whined like an overpriviledged b**** about losing money during the pandemic, I think it's a guarantee that they wont sign Bauer. At the same time, even as good as Bauer is, I don't think its prudent to blow all of your payroll flexibility on one guy. That is, when this rotation needs TWO FA SPs, IMO. And a closer, and a RFer, and another BP arm or two.

Injuries aside, the 3rd overall pick could/should have become more than Rodon became. And despite his elite slider, his complete inability to consistently/reliably locate his FB made his slider less useful. Which in turn, made Rodon less than he could have become. Who knows, with his stuff, and a good run of health, and more competent coaching, Rodon can still become something of note. But his allergy to throwing strikes isn't unique; both Lopez and Cease also have allergies to strike-throwing, and it doesn't seem to be coincidental, IMO.

Going to arb would mean he'll be on $6Mm+/yr, even if he loses. And, that's with him being under team control for 2021, and then FA thereafter. For a guy with a career 90 wrc+, a severe handedness deficit, and minimal range, Mazara aint worth it. Especially in what looks like a depressed FA market environment. This offseason, $6MM should go further than ~0.8 fWAR for a corner OFer.

I understand the attraction towards Bauer, I really do. And yes, adding him (@ perhaps ~$25MM/yr) would mean there would be 3 good SPs in the rotation. But under the likely payroll constraints, that would mean there would also likely be 2 shitty SPs, walking the yard every outing, and burning up the bullpen. More Cease starts (with his 5BB/9) and/or more Lopez starts (with his 5BB/9) means more Ross detwiler/detwiler-equivalent innings. Which in turn, will mean at best, a road wildcard playoff game, but more likely, this team on the outside looking in. Again, I'd be stoked (initially) if Bauer were signed here. But we'd all go back to dry-heaving the first time Cease gives up 4 runs in 3 2/3IP & 80 pitches thrown, because he can't reliably locate his FB. And then, with most of the payroll flexibility used up, there could be scant opportunity to add later on. (Remember, his agent isn't gonna give any discounts.) Just my perception at the moment, because I simply don't trust Lopez/Cease/Dunning/Kopech as yet.

I'll agree, it's a good thought exercise. And I agree that pitching is the most pressing need at the moment. I think I'd rather go the FA route, but I'd rather go with 2 SPs from the middle market than just one top end SP, & hope that Cease/Lopez/Dunning don't walk the yard all year long. Also, we're all speculating what the FA market will be like, and what FAs will get. My guess is that the top end of the FAs will get their money, or at least close to what they would "ordinarily" get in a regular year. Im also guessing that mid-level FAs, and guys that sat out (such as Q, Stroman, & Puig) will have to accept smaller and/or shorter offers this winter than usual. It will be interesting to see.

I think this is a fair question to pose. Given that Keuchel is on an average $18.5MM contract @ age 32, what would Bauer get at age 29? I'd guess $25MM/5 years; he's on a 1/$17.5MM deal now. So, with Bauer, I agree that 5 fWAR isn't out of the question. But then, you'd also have to absorb perhaps a -0.5fWAR from Cease, and -0.7fWAR from either Dunning or Lopez, and then potentially overexpose Engel to the tune of another +0.0 fWAR. Also, the bullpen would be gassed by July, while Cease & Lopez or Dunning walk the yard 2 days out of every 5th day. This would get the SOX to 5-0.7-0.5+0.0= +3.7 fWAR added, because you'd have to depend on unproven commodities for the #4/5 SPs, and hope that Engel won't revert to what his ZIPS projection say he will be. Couldn't Stroman get you to ~3.0fWAR for $12MM, & Q get you ~2.0fWAR for I dunno, $8MM, & then get ~1.5 fWAR out of Puig for $5MM or so? Sure, youd have to absorb -0.5 fWAR out of the 5th starter, but thats only 1 day out of 5. So, you'd be looking at a total of 3+2+1.5-0.5 = 6.0 fWAR, all in. I'll admit, this wouldn't be without risk, as you'd still have an unproven #5 SP, & you'd have to hope that Puig can be what his projections say that he is now. But, you'd still have more SP depth, and OF depth to hedge your bets. Because of the likely salary constraints, I think I still prefer Stroman & Q as a 2 SP solution, rather than just Bauer. I think there'd be too much negative WAR risk with the other players if you blow all the salary flexibility wad on Bauer.

Whoops, two other reasons why I favor specifically Stroman and Q that I'd forgotten to post last night. Your list above just reminded me. Consider these #s 9 & 10 from my list above: 9. This org has pursued what they thought were "B-level" FAs in the past, such as squandering $7MM on a 34 year old Gio Gonzalez, and $12MM on a geezing geezer in Encarnacion. However, Stroman will only turn 30 this offseason, while Q will turn 32 this offseason. I think they're more likely to retain a decent level of performance, given their ages. 10. Stroman and Q have both had the equivalent of the 2020 season off. (Q went 10 IP for the scrubs.) Like Keuchel before them, who had half of 2019 and half of a normal 2020 season off, this reduced workload at this point in their careers may help them to retain their performances better/for a few more years than "normal" 30/32 year olds. As you just post, yes, this rotation needs a better floor of performances from their #3/4 (Cease/Lopez) are likely to give them. To your point, I think there are other choices than Stroman/Q as solutions in this regard. But for the 10 reasons I mentioned, plus that trashstros fans post, I specifically favor Stroman/Q as FA additions this offseason.

Last thing I'll post on this. Here's a link from another source that speaks to his elite spin rates, his high GB rates, and his ability to regularly go 6IP in most of his outings. They express why I favor Stroman as part of a 2 FA SP solution this offseason better than I can: Trashstros fans post about Stroman

Oh, I hear you. I happen to think that adding ~340ish or so IP of ~4 to ~4.25 FIP to this rotation is exactly what this team needs. I would love to add Bauer and his ~180ish or so IP of ~3ish FIP, but then we'd all have to vomit on Lopez's and Cease's starts all year long. And, we'd also probably have to go without re-siging colome, and have to live with a black hole in RF as well. While I share your reservations about "B-level" FAs, looking at Stroman & Q, they're younger, and better than, say Gio Gonzalez. And if signing these two can ALSO allow re-signing Colome and a cromulent, 100 wrc+, +1 or more DRS, ~2.0ish fWAR everyday RFer, I think I'd take it over Bauer and ONLY Bauer signed this offseason.

Oh, its not a surprise to those of us who have been paying attention to the way this org operates. As it has been said, "If someone shows you who they are through their actions, you should believe them." I included that item as #1 on the list, so that those who think we have a snowball's chance in hell of signing a top end FA are confronted with real-world conditions in this org. I included item #6 as further evidence of this org's very real budgetary constraints, whether one believes them to be legit or not. That aside, we'll get to read the usual, tired posts of "would, could or should" arguments all offseason. As in variations of: "If I were JR, I WOULD sign Bauer!" Or, "The SOX have plenty of money. They COULD sign Bauer!" Or, "Bauer's really good at baseball. They SHOULD sign him, no matter what!" We've read variations of these same 3 arguments ad nauseum about pretty much every top FA in pretty much every offseason. Yet, Machado, Harper, Gerrit Cole, and even Wheeler signed elsewhere. While I could be wrong about the SOX having budgetary constraints that will (once again) preclude siging top end FAs, I also think we're seeing a decades-long trend of them generally not doing so. YMMV.

Sure, your argument is the equivalent of, "a Porsche 911 will beat a human being in the 1/4 mile." We all already know this to be true. What if offers are roughly equal from competing teams, as they often are? Would having a known cheat help in recruiting FAs? As we've seen in the Wheeler pursuit, there often are non-monetary reasons for why a player picks one team over another, even with one offer being better (SOX) than another (Mets). Players won't simply come out and tell the world which managers they hate, for a variety of reasons. But there is a long list of players that have verbalized their hatred of what Houston did; hiring the manager who was either too weak, too stupid, or complicit in the cheating simply can't help in recruiting.

I think this is a fair topic. I think Stroman makes sense for the following reasons: 1. This link suggests that there will be some sort of budget, which will preclude spending on top targets in FA. 2. The system still has talent, but is shallow. When you look at it, of the top 10 there will be a lot of graduations, leaving scant reserves from which to trade to improve the 26 man roster. [Seriously, it'll be Kopech, a handful of former prep SPs, and Adolfo atop the prospect lists, once Vaughn arrives here next season.] 3. This guy sucked this year. I mean, he really, really really sucked. Seriously, he sucked out loud at baseball this season. He had the worst BB/9 among SPs in MLB. In a competitive window, this team can't count on him, until he can get his shit sorted. He needs to start 2021 in Charlotte or Schaumburg, and fvkcing get his BB/9 down to a level that won't make you dry heave. 4. This guy is yet another SP who is on his way to bustville. Maybe he's a reason for Coop no longer being here, but he sucked even more than the guy in #3. 5. Over 162, this team will not even make it to the post season if it attempts to start the season with the guys under #3 &#4 in the starting rotation. Back in 2000, the SOX failed to make the postseason, due to an unreliable #5 SP. As currently comprised [Giolito-Keuchel-Dunning-Cease-Lopez], there's no prayer of making the postseason in a regular 162 game grind. Even if the SOX added Bauer, he can't pitch 3 times a week, and you'd have to hold your heaves for Cease and Lopez starts. 6. The payroll will require creativity to maintain future flexibility, when you consider that RF and a closer and an additional BP arm or two are needs, in addition to the gaping holes in the starting rotation. This is particularly important, if this team wants to retain the ability to add throughout the competitive window, and not just blow the entire payroll load in one offseason. 7. This list of FA SPs shows one or two top-end options, and then a cavalcade of geezing geezers, and other vets with their share of questions. If they propose Odorizzi having a market value of $17MM, I'd much rather have Stroman at ~half of that or less, PLUS Q at ~half of that as well. 8. He's had a strong GB rate rate over the course of his career, which could help him provide a good amount of IP, and lessen the burden on the BP over 162. TL/DR: Bauer can help in a playoff series, but he can't pitch more than once every five days. Just to be able to GET TO the playoffs, and to enable Cease re-find the strike zone, I'd rather sign 2 veteran SPs [Stroman/Q], and only have to gamble on Dunning as the #5.

Wait, let me go change my shirt while you find a link. Or a video. Or a story. Or anything else, beyond your opinion. Because, no one is arguing which is worse. Im showing (with links) that the players think that video cheating is worse. You've shown nothing. If you want to discuss which is worse (steroids or video cheating), feel free to start a topic elsewhere. This thread is/was about who may be the best man to help this team win now. And part of that is the ability to attract FA; Hinch may well hurt those efforts.

Cool. Then show us something where a player or group of players so states that they hate steroids more than video cheating. Because its their opinions and preferences that influence whether or not they end up coming to a team with a cheating manager. I've shown the opposite more than once. You've shown nothing. Find us a link. A podcast. A video. A story. Anything, and that would be evidence to support your opinion. With respect to Altuve, this was the first known "clean" season he's played in. We can't trust all of the fraudulently-obtained prior numbers, because we know they weren't real. We do know that he sucked this season, and we know that they didn't commit the same fraud this year. Therefore, we can conclude that he may very well suck at baseball without cheating.

With respect to the bolded, the same is true for players that were on teams that didn't use video to cheat. Would Altuve have won the MVP without video, for example? I dunno, but he sucked a horses ass without it in the regular season. Would many of Houston's pitchers do as well if they weren't regularly pitching with an illegally-obtained lead? We don't know. Would Hinch be as good without cheating? Again, we don't know. But probably not. With respect to the underlined, you're arguing against yourself. Because players (not just "pitchers and idiots") are on record as hating the video cheating more, it will make it harder/more expensive to attract FA. Not easier/cheaper if Hinch was THEIR coach, as you've posted here. You've shown no evidence that players dislike steroids more than video cheating. (Beyond your own opinion. ) I've shown the opposite, with links and evidence. Therefore, we can reasonably conclude that the video cheating offends players more. Amd that it could add an additional barrier to recruitment if Hinch were here.

Again, no one is arguing what is the greater crime. I am arguing (with links/video evidence) that the players dislike video cheating more than steroids. Do you have anything that shows the opposite? And yes, given the evidence, we can reasonably conclude that this issue can contribute to impeding recruitment efforts. All things being equal, players don't like to go to teams with personnel they don't like. Do you have any evidence that players dislike steroids more than video cheating? I'm entirely open to changing my view, if you do.

You're arguing the wrong thing. No-one is arguing what is more beneficial. What I am showing is that THE PLAYERS think that Houston's cheating is the greater crime. And THE PLAYERS hate the video cheating more. And no, it isn't just "pitchers and idiots" that think this. Whether its steroids or video that is more beneficial is entirely immaterial. It is what potential future employees think that matters. Were the SOX to hire Hinch, it could impede FA efforts, and make the org one that isn't a preferred destination for players as a result.

About the bolded, how do you know this? About the previous video, you clearly didn't watch it. Like it or not, there have been more than just "pitchers and idiots" that hate/hated what Houston did. For Example Steroids were so widespread that pretty much every team had someone who used. What Houston and Boston did was (as far as we know) more isolated to those teams. What added insult to injury was AJ Hinch stupidly running his piehole when the yankmees caught them. As you know, players remember this sort of shit-talk and cheating.

Bauer, Cc, & Gray talk about Houston cheating I dont know how to embed this, but at 26:20, they start discussing Houston's cheating. But, they also bring up the steroid era. Surprisingly, all three hate what Houston did more than steroid cheats. If anything, I could see Hinch making it harder for whoever hires him to recruit FAs. That said, I don't want TLR, or Hinch, full stop.