Two-Gun Pete

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Especially for a 37 year old DH. Also, prorate Puig's injury shortened seasons, and he's well above 2fWAR in those seasons.

And exactly how was any of that worse than credibly-accused child sex assailants, wife beaters, steroid cheats, or video sign stealers? (I also note that you had to go back 2 years to gin up a story about Puig, and not within the past 6-12 months, as I'd stipulated. )

For all the posters getting the vapors over "Puig is a dick," "Puig is a cancer," etc... How about a link proving your point? (And something from the past ~6-12 months, not from 6 years ago.) Not saying that he hasn't had his issues, but in a league and a game that has allowed racists, wife beaters, steroid cheats, alleged child abusers, and video sign stealers, exactly how is Puig anywhere near as bad as they are or were? This whole thing is overblown, in all honesty. He's not a great player, but he's more likely to produce 2 or more fWAR than Mazara or Encarnacion in 2020.

Nah, arguing the top guys (Cole/Strasburg/Rendon) or even Wheeler vs Keuchel really is a canard. And to be honest, not really worth discussing; of course we'd all prefer the top FA targets over lesser ones. I dont much disagree with signing Keuchel, as this rotation needed quality starts and leadership almost as much as it needed top end talent. I would have preferred Porcello over Gonzalez, only to the point that I think Porcello will be a better pitcher going forward. And, his Cy Young and WS ring would have added more leadership to the pitching staff. But, I think Gonzalez may have been chosen for his experience as both a SP and RP, so that he can move to the Pen when Kopech arrives. On Mazara, I'm not convinced about his defense, which is not "nothing." (Particularly when there's already a butcher in LF.) I also wonder about having to bet on both him AND Robert's rookie season AND Eloy avoiding a sophomore slump all simultaneously. I think I would have preferred Puig over Mazara. I like Encarnacion's bat, but all the questionable gloves among the OFers means that Engel and his turd of a bat will start ~60 or more games next year. (Dont talk to me about Engel's garbage time heroics hitting in 2019 with the juiced ball; I dont buy into those results.)

I've been critical of this front office for awhile. But I believe that they've earned every last morsel of ridicule and critique they've gotten over the past ~8 or so years. That said, I have to compliment this front office for stepping outside their safety zone to make the improvements they've made this offseason. Well done, RH and KW and JR. For my part, I would have preferred a few different moves than some that were made, but at least they've made a reasoned approach to this offseason.

This thread needs more italics like the song "Don't Fear The Reaper" needs more cowbell.

This may be true. But go ahead and look at Spotrac's Market Value. They address many of the ideas you pose here. Their takeaway is that Ryu and Boras aren't going for 3/70.

I'm not arguing for a discount. And I agree that paying whatever it takes to get the player they want would be the better way to go. Im arguing against those that post the idea that Ryu could/would take 3/$70MM, when Darvish got 6/$126MM.

Jack, you're entirely misreading the core of that post. I am not "mad at Boras." I am merely reinforcing the very real idea that none of Rye/Keuchel/Bumgarner are going to accept a measly contract offer. I am trying to combat the irrational exuberance that some are placing on FS SP contracts. IOW, Boras ain't gonna give any discounts. Period.

In what way have those morons shown any ability to learn anything? In what way have they shown a willingness to do things differently? What I'm guessing is that they'll undervalue SP contracts, and wonder why they can't get Ryu for 3/$45MM. Then they'll get desperate, and bail out the sawx while stupidly giving away value. I hope I'm wrong.

If I had to guess, the sawx FO is waiting for KW/RH to get desperate and stoopid. The sawx had to see how KW/RH stupidly gave away valuable pieces for Shields and Samardzjia, and are waiting to rip off the SOX. I hate the idea of these imbeciles making a trade, particularly given their rich history of abject failure in this area.

If you look at spotrac's methodology, it really looks akin to an appraisal on a house. That is, they looked at comparable players and their FA contracts, just as an appraiser looks at similar properties to the one you want to buy. So, look at Ryu, and look at Darvish's contract. Darvish got 6/$126MM at only 1 year younger than Ryu just 2 years ago. Ryu (and his greedy agent) would have to anticipate 4 or 5 years, at or above $100MM. Otherwise, it would be a steep discount in years or salary by comparison. I think Spotrac was pretty on point on Wheeler's deal, as well as other deals since then. So, either JR, et al accept that Fa SPs cost what they cost, OR, they repeat the same mistakes of yesteryear. (Possibly leading to an inferior on-field product.)

I’m seeing what looks like some irrational exuberance for what SP FAs will go for. I thought that many posters vastly underestimated what Wheeler and others would sign for. I think it would inform the discussion to try to make an attempt to get more clarity on this issue. For this, I turn to Spotrac, which was pretty accurate for at least one data point. Zack Wheeler’s Market Value: $23.4MM/yr *4years = $93.8MM. He got $118MM/5 years for ~$23.6MM/per. Had the rumored Sox offer been $125MM/5 years, it would have been $25MM/per. Zack Wheeler Market Value on Spotrac Some of the other SP FAs are pretty interesting as well: Hyun-Jin Ryu’s Market Value: $27.6MM/yr * 4 years = $110.4MM. Ryu's Market Value on Spotrac Dallas Keuchel’s Market Value: $20.7MM/yr * 4 years = $103.6MM. Keuchel's Market Value on Spotrac Madison Bumgarner’s Market Value: $21.1MM/yr *5 years = $105.6MM. Bumgarner's Market Value on Spotrac Now, I’ll grant that this is just one source. But, as opposed to a sportwriter’s/insider’s “opinion,” what impresses me about Spotrac is that they actually make an effort to “show their work,” inasmuch as a word problem in 4th Grade math class. I think they were pretty spot-on with Wheeler, though the competitive market between us and Philly made it possible for him to achieve that 5th contracted year. Given the pitchers in question, and their agents, I think it is entirely possible that all three SPs in question just might get >$100MM and 4 or more years. I think this is especially true for the Borasshole clients in Ryu and Keuchel.

I actually view it differently than you. I dont think they're in stealth mode at all. I think the longer this goes, the worse our chances are with Wheeler. I think some other team either outbid us, or this team dithers about while another team swoops in to land Wheeler. I think Jerry, et. Al still have the fear of longer-term pitching contracts. I really hope I'm wrong, and Wheeler is in our rotation in 2020. Prove me wrong, Jerry.

I think the dropoff in the FA market is AFTER Bumgarner/Wheeler. Those two have similar numbers, although I understand Wheeler's velo has been higher. I prefer Bumgarner, as he's a lefty who has won. This is a rotation that needs veteran leadership, and an example of success to emulate. Id also like a LH starter in a day and age when the LOOGY will be de-emphasized, due to the 3-hutter rule. That said, if its Wheeler, I'd be happy. I believe it is essential for this rebuild to acquire one of Cole/Strasburg/Wheeler/Bumgarner. What I definitely DONT want is Keuchel or Ryu as the "headliner" SP acquisition. I dont trust Keuchel being good anymore, and Ryu is made of glass. Him hitting is a non-factor, IMO. Like it or not, the NL will get the DH in the next CBA. There aren't any more holdouts among the NL clubs on this issue. It opens up more jobs for the players, and the owners no longer want the additional injury risk to expensive SPs. Now, should he prefer the left coast, so be it. That simply means he isn't a candidate to sign here.

Wait, aren't your "ideal" and "mediocre" solutions the same thing, just stated in different order? That aside, squandering money to buy high on a statue that can't catch a cold in Castellanos is a bad idea, IMO. (Never mind that he's a Boras client, and chasing him could cause us to miss out on other options while Boras uses us for leverage.) Similarly, trading from a soon-to-be barren system also seems to be a bad idea. Were it me, I'd prefer either a cheaper gamble on Puig/Avi, or sign Akiyama to play CF and shift Robert to play RF. Either solution is a gamble. But neither would be crippling to other future moves to add or to extend extant players, IMO.

What do you make of this: Wheeler's Market Value, According to Spotrac His numbers and age are eerily similar to Corbin's. I think he might get $100MM/4, and perhaps more than that.

~$18MM for a geezing geezer whose xFIP in a cavernous NL park was >5? Holy fucking shit, is this rumor stupid. Now, IF SFG were to pick up $12MM of his one remaining season, and take a crappy low-level token like Korey Zangari in trade, fine.

I've posted this before in other thread during this offseason. I'd look for a bridge signing to a future solution, or an affordable gamble, while preserving as much money as possible for this relatively deep pitching FA class. I believe it is ESSENTIAL that this team acquire one of the top 4 SP FA. I would also avoid making stupid trades for mere incremental improvement; that's what I saw in the moronic Samardzjia and Shields trades. IMO, that's exactly what a trade for a platoon player in Pederson would be, or a gamble on a one-year wonder like Nimmo. I would preserve as much trade capital as possible for the inevitable fire sales that other teams will have every year. (The last time the Sox did this was Robin's first year as manager; the FO picked up Youkilis and others for the playoff chase for cheap prices.) That said, my previous post was trying to get someone to convince me that trading from a soon-to-be empty farm system was a better idea than the moronic Samardzija and Shields trades. Or, that having two shitty OFers in the field, while overspending/buying high on a statue was a good idea. So far, no one has come up with cogent support for either of these ideas, IMO. So, when none of the solutions that are available are ideal, you buy a cheap one. Especially if your budget is in any way limited. To my view, that means either of Avi or Puig; I'd prefer Puig.

So, let me get this straight: Posters want to trade from a soon-to-be ~20th or so ranked system (once Robert/Madrigal arrive) for a platoon player w/1 year of control in Pederson, Or Buy high on a butcher in Castellanos whose improvement at the bat can largely be explained by the juiced ball in 2019. (See league average ops in 2019 vs 2018: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml ) Are these really the best solutions for RF at this point?

So, from the SOX standpoint, 2-3 of these prospects kills any sort of depth, and makes it all but impossible to make a "finishing touch" trade later. [i.e. a Chapman to scrubs-type move to complete a playoff run.] From the standpoint of another team, they'd be looking at a "pile of mediocrity for your good player" type of trade. How does Theo sell a Schwarber for Dunning/Micker/Sheets deal to his fanbase, for example? I don't think I'm convinced that a "Buy" trade [at THIS point] makes sense for a shallow system that could be ranked in the ~20s, once Robert and Madrigal arrive. That said, if/when some of the injured or less-effective prospects get healthy and re-establish their prospect value [such as in midseason this year], a "Buy" trade could make more sense. At the same time, when a projected contender surprisingly falls out of contention, and has to SELL, keeping "the powder dry" for such an opportunity could bear fruit for the SOX, IMO.

How about first listing trade assets that THIS org has that won't scupper this rebuild? I'm skeptical about the depth of this system, such that a trade may well kill whatever depth this org may have.

Yeah, so-called "offensive geniuses" just have to abandon the run at the earliest possible moment. I'm certain Nagy and others will use this game vs. a shitty defense as evidence of this so-called system as being legit.

I'm curious why you believe this. My view is that, for better or worse, Puig is at least a RFer, not a LFer. And, he wouldn't cost any (scant) trade resources. If others are more correct as to his price than Spotrac and I believe his market to be, why in God's name wouldn't the Reinsdorfs be in on that? Also, one other thing I note about this thread: Almost ALL of us believe Wheeler to be the better, younger, more ascendant, and with fewer IP SP than Bumgarner. Almost ALL of us believe that there will be a large degree of interest in Wheeler. Yet, almost all of the predictions posted here project Bumgarner to get a larger contract/more years than Wheeler. Is this wishful thinking on the part of posters here? I see the opposite, in all honesty. I believe Wheeler will get the Cobin contract+, while Bumgarner will get less $/fewer years.

1. I see Cole/Strasburg as being the cream of the crop. They're not coming here. (See last offseasons as a predictor of this offseason.) I see Wheeler to be better than Bum, but he'll get too much money and too many years for the Reinsdorfs. On the other hand, I see Ryu/Odorizzi/Keuchel as being inferior to Bumgarner. To me, that makes Bumgarner the right player at Reinsdorf's price range. 2. DH is one area where a cheap gamble could work. If it doesn't, then a trade in midseason could fix a Tsutsugoh signing. 3. I think Ozuna returns to st Louis, and he's a LFer, not a RFer. Puig isn't an ideal solution, so much as a "realistic" solution. What's more, we don't know who will be available next offseason, and at what price. If this hole in RF isn't solved this year, we could be right back in the same predicament next offseason.