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Everything posted by Two-Gun Pete
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Kopech the latest MLB player with questionable Twitter history
Two-Gun Pete replied to LittleHurt05's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Oh, I'm aware. And I recognize that anything that is put on the interwebs lives forever. But, I believe he has the same account NOW as he did then. My view is that it can be helpful for a young signee/draftee to clean up stupid posts from his high school FB/Twitter/etc accounts, THEN delete the accounts, and then re-start, if only to provide some small measure of distance from previously ill-considered posts put up in the past. Keeping the same HS FB/Twitter/Insta accounts is asking for past mistakes to haunt a player's future, IMO. -
Kopech the latest MLB player with questionable Twitter history
Two-Gun Pete replied to LittleHurt05's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I didn't read his tweets as being directed at an individual or group in a derogatory way; Many Millennials stupidly use the N-word ending with an "a" as some bizarre greeting for each other. Regardless, it was stupid for him to do. That said, I'm absolutely STUNNED that players simply aren't advised by their agents and/or their teams' on proper social media norms to limit a players' exposure to this sort of thing. A good rule could be for a player to delete all social media accounts upon being signed, and then re-start afresh. [With proper professional advise insofar as how to behave in such a way that their online presences don't put the players/teams into a position of disrepute.] For the agent, if your sole job is to get your clients as much cash on AND OFF the field, why wouldn't you advise ALL clients to clean up/delete all social media accounts, and then re-start? For the teams, why not have this be a part of all new player orientation? [Don't know if the SOX do this, but I do know of at least one local NCAA school that does do this.] -
This is a bit of an expansion of terms, otherwise known as "goalpost moving." I posted, "...scout, draft, sign, & then (Most importantly, IMHO), DEVELOP a prep draftee. The other poster b****es about not drafting prep players; giving this incompetent group of rubes in this FO credit for developing other team's prep draftees is goalpost moving. That aside, and to the other posters' viewpoint of drafting their own prep draftee (not aquiring one that someone else drafted) I think it's been since Crede that they be developed their own prep draftee.
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Its cute to pine for the "sexy" pick in terms of prep players. But, I can't believe anyone in this fandom has even a scrap of confidence in this FO to scout, draft, sign, & then (Most importantly, IMHO), DEVELOP a prep draftee. I mean, didn't these posters watch this FO piss away the #1 prospect by turning him into a 1 fWAR, sub-.700 OPS struggler? And haven't they seem the last two decades or so for failure to develop any of their own draftees? Sorry, but until Getz, et al show they can not Fuck up top prospects, I'm content to see this org take college players in the draft. Until further notice, these guys are too impatient and too incompetent to be trusted with top prep draftees, IMO.
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I'll disagree with you on this. IMHO, the best thing that could happen for this kid is for this stupid FO to have an excuse to send him down. I think that a long-lasting, but not career-threatening injury in Spring Training, followed by a few weeks of riding busses would be the best way to get the lad's attention. I thought it in July of '17, & I'm convinced of it now: Moncada was stupidly rushed, & his development was harmed. He can still turn it around, but his sub-.700 OPS, despite being on track for 20 HR shows how screwed up he is at the plate, & how these coaches are not helping him.
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White Sox are always gonna white sox it up. This is dumb. Either right after the trade deadline, or next April was the right move. Its stuff like this that makes fans think KW & Hahn are stoooopud. Here's hoping that somehow, THIS prospect breaks the losing streak of Fulmer, Giolito, and Lopez, despite having pretty much all of the same coaches as they did.
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When will the White Sox be good?
Two-Gun Pete replied to footlongcomiskeydog's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I wasn't opposed to doing just that BEFORE this whole process started. In fact, the heartbeat they decided to trade for James Shields would have been the timeframe I would have moved to launch the entire FO, "Red Wedding-Style." Insofar as the timeframe being delayed for a competitive window, THAT'S exactly what happens when a FO screws up player development. When the best player this org can produce out of: Anderson, Fulmer, Giolito, Lopez, and Moncada is a cromulent ~2.0ish fWAR SS in Anderson, timeframes get delayed. In sum, this is the fruit of letting unfinished prospects, "learn at the Big League level," instead of letting them iron out the lion's share of their deficiencies in MiLB. Speeding prospects to MLB increases urgency for them to perform, while shortening their expected timeframes to actually "figure things out." It also doesn't help that this org has incompetent on-field management/coaching in Chicago, and a relatively inexperienced Director of Player Development overseeing these prospects. Taken in totality, unless Giolito, Lopez, Moncada, and Anderson ALL take quantum leaps in their performance next season, AND some of the 2nd & 3rd wave prospects get healthy/progress next season, I'd say 2022 sounds about right. -
Heyman: Eloy/Kopech may not be promoted this year
Two-Gun Pete replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Yeah, after the "Rip-Roaring Successes" of Fulmer, Lopez, Giolito, Anderson, and Moncada, let's just keep running our top prospects up! Its worked so well so far, right? [What was that line about "doing the same thing over and over again, yet expecting different results?"] -
Heyman: Eloy/Kopech may not be promoted this year
Two-Gun Pete replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
All of this is well and good, if this org had any track record of success. But, they don't. That said, I wish this org had let every top prospect, such as a guy like Moncada, FINISH his work v. AAA opposition, BEFORE being called up. Ya know, get his K rate down in AAA, BEFORE being called up? Or hit better as a RHH than an obese, 38 year old AL middle reliever hits in extra innings in interleague play? Or learn how to protect better in 2 strike counts? Or how/when to be aggressive EARLY in counts? Or have enough reps to be a repeatable and consistent defender? Once he "checks all the boxes," THEN let him face Verlander and all the other titans of pitching in the world, and not a heartbeat before. Oftentimes, the world has a certain "syntax" to it; i.e. a kid has to learn to add and subtract, BEFORE taking on Calculus in school. Similarly, I'd rather have a prospect VANQUISH, PUNISH, and thoroughly CONQUER AAA before they sniff MLB, not "sorta-kinda do good, so let's call him up." Or, "he's got tools, so he'll be OK, even if he hasn't proved it yet, but let's call him up, anyway." As it pertains to Jimenez and Kopech, I salute the fact that the FO finally figured this out. These two certainly won't be hurt by staying in Charlotte until next April, and possibly, could be helped in their path to stardom. -
There's a lot to like about going through this thread again. Some of what was posted here was predictive, and some posts were way off. [Both by myself and others.] "He has nothing left to learn in AAA. He's bored in AAA. He'll play up to his competition in the Bigs. And so on...
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Wait, didn't Parkman post 2-2.5 WAR is an MLB regular? Why, yes he did. You entirely skipping over the "2-2.5 fWAR" part of his post is impressive goalpost moving. If you're going to attack the man's opinion, at least cite the same thing he did, rather than skipping past the most cogent part.
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Meh, kids shouldn't play sports the same way adults do. I don't think no-headers-in-youth-soccer will significantly change soccer as much as CTE has changed American Football. Hell, it isn't even "just" the concussion issue for American Football, as it is the summation of sub-concussive hits making your 17 year old have CTE playing American Football.
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We all see the "loud tools," & we all look hopefully toward Moncada becoming what his tools say he should be. OTOH, I keep going back to wondering exactly why he "had to" be called up last July. Last year, we all had to read how "Moncada has nothing left to learn in AAA." This year, we have to wonder if he can hit RH, if he'll ever get his K rate down, if he'll ever take a more aggressive approach early in counts, if he'll ever learn to protect in 2-strike counts, if he'll ever learn consistency in his approach to fielding, among other issues. I said then, & I still say now that Moncada had a lot more than "nothing left to learn." Him failing to become an absolute STUD would hurt this rebuild significantly.
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Nah, no one thinks KW is "evil," IMO. I think most who criticize him do so because they think he's stupid.
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Going back to Moncada, he had an OPS in the .830s in Coors Field-Charlotte, but a middling OPS of .696 everywhere else in 2017. He's now OPSing closer to .700 than .800 this season in MLB; while yes, every player is different, we see at least Moncada's history as a template for other top prospects coming through the IL for this org. Id say that we can't conclude that Eloy is closer to the Coors Field-Charlotte version yet.
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Did he have to face as many prospects, recovering from injury MLB players, polished (relative for MiLB) AAAA types, and former prospects in AA as in AAA? Id guess that he didn't. This idea that AA pitching > AAA pitching is a bit antiquated, & sounds like a Hawkism. There are other factors to consider when conparing his AA record to his AAA record, IMO.
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Why can't it be both? On the one hand, the ballpark factor for HR for Coors Field-Charlotte was a MASSIVE 1.660. (I didnt see a similar ballpark factor at ANY other level of MiLB or MLB, BTW.) In other words, it was far & away easier to hit HR in Charlotte than anywhere else in all of the AAA leagues. (And yes, that includes all the high desert parks in the PCL like Reno.) So, it is beyond a doubt a skewing factor for hitters, especially for power hitters like Jimenez. Do you disagree with this fact? At the same time, his OPS away from Coors Field-Charlotte is ~350 points lower, but in a much smaller sample size. So, while it is "notable," Id say that the sample size isnt large enough for the difference in OPS to be significant-yet. But, to ignore the ballpark factors would be to put on blinders. So, let's see how he does, ESPECIALLY on the road for a few more weeks.
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Dont disagree with the sample size issue. However, AAA has more veteran AAAA types, former MLBers trying to make it back after injuries, former prospects, as well as current prospects pitching than in AA. This provides a hitter with room to grow/learn, given the higher degree of difficulty. There are more guys who "know how to pitch" in AAA than in AA. Because of these factors, I don't believe the old view that AA pitching is better than AAA any more; I believe that AAA pitching is better than AA pitching. There are things for Jimenez to learn in AAA, just as there were things for Moncada to learn before him. And while Jimenez may very well be ready now, I'm content to wait, and be SURE he is.
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Sometimes you gotta dig a little deeper than the overall #s. Looking @ home/away splits isn't getting too deep into minutiae, IMO.
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According to this, BB&T was the highest ballpark factor in the IL between 2014-2016. (I couldn't find a more recent citation.) If BB&T were in the PCL, it would be just behind Reno in ballpark factor. https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-stats-triple-a-ballpark-factors/c-208823408 To me, this makes the home/away splits for Charlotte's prospects very cogent to the discussion of their development/readiness.
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Now, that's a bit hyperbolic. It is well-known that Charlotte plays more like a AAA park in the PCL than an IL park. Disregarding this reality is foolish, is all that Ive posted. No need to extrapolate anything further than that.
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Don't disagree, and no one is hitting a "panic button." But it would be foolish to disregard the difference in difficulty for hitters in AAA parks other than Charlotte in that league. I don't know the park factor, but simply looking @ the overall #s for Jimenez can be deceiving, IMO. All the more reason to give him more reps in AAA.
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Or maybe, the Charlotte bandbox is artificially skewing his numbers, thereby giving us a false idea of his readiness. The lad won't become Dayan Viciedo, just by finishing up 2018 in AAA.
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His home/away splits are pretty far apart; OPSing a robust 1.104 in Coors Field-Charlotte, a less-stellar .762 everywhere else. The vs. LHP split is a meek .583, though there are sample size issues there. On balance, Id still like to see him up his numbers away from the Charlotte bandbox & vs. LHP before he sees Chicago. After seeing Moncada's splits in AAA last year, I remain reluctant to rush the top guys like Jimenez up.
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Since you asked, TBH, if Cordell were healthy, I'd prefer him to Engel. But, given who is available NOW, I prefer Tilson to Engel. My view is less about being a Tilson fan, than it is having seen enough of Engel. On a "micro level," Engel v. Tilson is a minor event. Trivial, even. But, on the "macro level," in terms of managing the AAAA assets, I believe its well past time to give Tilson a full look. And by "full look," I don't even believe that 610 PA would be required. Get him to ~400 PA or so, and see where he is. He was cromulent after having been away from the game for ~1 1/2 years, maybe he improves and can be part of a package for other assets. Or, more likely, he's as bad as Engel. We simply don't know after 120 PA that came after a protracted injury absence. Let's find out what he and other AAAA types are/aren't, BEYOND Engel. We already know what Engel is, IMO.