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Everything posted by Two-Gun Pete
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This interests me. How, exactly would one make it the opposite of "subjective," which would be "objective?"
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Yeah, thays pretty ridiculous. Salary relief on a team that's well below $100MM in salaries? What's more, even if he's between 2-4 WAR going forward, he's still earning his contract. There is next to zero reason to do a salary dump on Abreu. Just admit you don't like Abreu for whatever reason. At least then, you'd be intellectually honest.
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Are we REALLY certain that this is actual "growth," and not just a lucky year for him? Haven't we seen "one year wonders" go right back to sucking out loud at baseball? (Right, Avisail?) And is it prudent to believe in a guy who has sucked at baseball for as long as he's been in the White Sox organization, with this one year as a statistical outlier? I'm happy for Davidson, & I truly hope that this is who he really is going forward. But, the back of his baseball card tells us otherwise. This is a HIGHER BB Rate than he had, even in A+; this fact alone suggests to me that his current level of form is not sustainable. Moreover, I'd guess that he's due for some regression, to the tune of some 100-150 points off his OPS as his BB Rate normalizes. I hope I'm wrong.
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If he had "no business being in the major leagues," isn't that the textbook definition of being rushed? By the way, I happen to agree that he had no business being here, he NEVER earned his promotion, and it was only the front office's stupidity and collectively inflated ego that made him be brought up in 2016. Again, doesn't this kinda point towards being rushed up? This org, this team, and we the fans will continue to pay a heavy price for the stupidity of the front office from ~2012, up until the moment that RH had the "mired in mediocrity" press conference.
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Yes, I agree that his numbers as a pro have sucked a horse's ass. But, [email protected] posted the above in the gamethread last night. Dontcha just love "development at the MLB level?" As noted above, [email protected] shared that in the gamethread, after another poster recommended moving Fulmer [and possibly Giolito] down to Charlotte.
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Wait, what? I was told he "had nothing left to prove at the AAA level." How can such a move be possible? And what about "development at the MLB level?" I am shocked. Shocked!
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What does this mean, exactly? Fulmer hasn't had a FIP below 5 since 2016 between AA and AAA. He hasn't had a BB/9 below 4 since his abbreviated AAA stint that same year. So I ask again: What, exactly does "he has nothing left to prove" mean, when his numbers show that he's been pretty craptacular since he's been a pro.
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Source: Rodon about to head out on Rehab assignment
Two-Gun Pete replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Well, for one, each off season is unique, & we don't yet know if it will be a buyer's or seller's market when Rodon enters FA. For two, Boras didn't become the most powerful agent in MLB by getting his players to sign cut-rate deals. Taken together, I remain dubious as to Rodon re-signing here. That said, an oft-injured, and purportedly out of shape slob doesn't inspire confidence in this fan, either. On the other hand, given that Fulmer and Giolito and Lopez are walking the yard each time they're on the mound, maybe Rodon may yet surprise us. We'll see. -
Carson Fulmer is the living embodiment of "learning at the MLB level," IMO. I just want to be on the record as hating the "learn at the MLB level" idea with the fire of 1,000 suns. That is all.
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What are Davidson's non-KC splits so far this year?
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Source: Rodon about to head out on Rehab assignment
Two-Gun Pete replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Yeah, and I'd like a pony, too... ...Then I remembered who Rodon's agent was, and recognized that 'He Gone' a heartbeat after his arb years are up. I actually hope for him to be healthy, which would be a novelty for Rodon, and effective as well, so that he can be traded before he leaves via FA. -
I don't think it is/was racist to refer to Anderson as a basketball player, because as others have said here, that's exactly what he was when he was drafted. That said, the more cogent point [to me, anyway] is that for a guy with little experience, he was rushed, full-stop. A guy with as little meaningful high-level competition as Anderson had is going to make mistakes. And so, it is a disservice to Anderson for him to have been brought up when he was. I think its more illustrative of the moronic way this org has treated its prospects for far too long moreso than Anderson being mistake-prone. Of course he's gonna make mistakes, he was a JUCO player who later only had 55 games in AAA. This org reaps what it sows with this kid. I had hoped that they would have learned their lesson, but then we have to watch Moncada's Ks and his middle reliever-caliber RH bat. [66 WRC+ vs LHP] And yes, Moncada's been great this year, but how much better could he have been NOW with more time in Charlotte in 2017? [Imagine him with a ~25% K rate, and a ~90ish wRC+ as a RHH, had he been given the time to work out these issues. One drools at the possibility...] Here's hoping that someway, somehow the jokers who have given us a decade+ of being "mired in mediocrity" can learn something, and stop rushing players who clearly aren't done with their development. I don't want to see Jimenez or Kopech until September.
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He could also backslide into the middling hitter he's been against every other opponent except for KC. He's got to keep the BB rate up, and reduce the K rate for him to be cogent to the discussion of this team's future. He also isn't as good with the glove as others @ 3rd or 1st, so its all about his bat, and him doing it on the regular, rather than just against KC. On the positive side, I loved the extra inning HR; I thought his swing on that one looked a lot like a prime-of-his-career Konerko. But, it was vs a weak opponent and vs a LHP who was struggling to locate. Here's hoping he can continue this vs other opponents and in other situations as well.
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But there's also an extant body of work by Moncada that has shown a proclivity to struggle v LHP; I had wanted him to work on this issue last season before he was called up. That said, here's hoping he can make himself relevant as a RHH.
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It is going to get worse before it gets better
Two-Gun Pete replied to Ducksnort's topic in Pale Hose Talk
With respect to Anderson, his promotion came in the dumb old days of 2016, when they thought that that crappy roster, with THAT dumb manager had a snowball's chance in hell of competing. To me, he should have been the last of the "rushed prospects" for awhile. But, with respect to Moncada: When he was acquired, he had had "all of" 45 games in AA. Moncada fangraphs While he was clearly more talented than most of his opponents, he also K'ed to a 30% clip in 2016. Now, fast-forward to 2017, and his overall good numbers were masked by a YAWNING gap between his home/away splits, and his LH/RH splits. Moncada Splits The Home/away splits matter, because Charlotte is an extremely hitter-friendly environment, while his handedness splits mattered because he's a switch hitter. Again, he K'ed to a 28.3% clip in AAA vs. the Dylan Coveys and Chris Becks and other AAAA mediocrities of the world. Now, we have to hear about how his ability to make contact remains flawed, while we wasted some of his pre-FA years, while he tries to learn things in MLB that he could have learned in AAA. [Which he could have done without using up as much of his controllable time.] I'd much rather have waited a bit, to have him square away his RH swing, work on his bat control, improve his ability to make contact, and above all, cut down on the Ks. What was the rush? Did we need Moncada to win? Did we need Moncada in Chicago to sell tickets? 2017 and 2018 are/were lost years. Why rush him up, possibly scupper his development, and speed him off to FA? From my view, Moncada's development was/is SO IMPORTANT to the rebuild that more patience was the proper prescription. I happen to believe the same about Jimenez and Kopech. YMMV. -
It is going to get worse before it gets better
Two-Gun Pete replied to Ducksnort's topic in Pale Hose Talk
After seeing the recurring meme of "development at the MLB level," I've grown a bit annoyed at watching youngsters come up and scuffle. Does anyone else like seeing Fulmer crapping his pants every 5 days? How about having to watch Moncada oscillate between sharply hit balls one day, and then piles of strikeouts looking the next? I'd much rather have Kopech PROVE that his command is MLB-ready, and that he can reliably get into the 6th/7th inning, than rush him up as an incomplete product. I'd much rather give Jimenez all the time he needs to be as close to 100% finished, than have him struggle whenever he's brought up as well. These kids are freakin' Romanov Dynasty Fabrege Eggs, and should be treated as such, not rushed up like a AAAA no hoper/Rule 5 Draftee-type. After all, getting back to winning >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the stupid "sugar high" of speeding every last prospect up, IMHO. 2018 is a lost year, and if it takes until September for these kids to figure it out, let them wait until September. -
QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 13, 2018 -> 04:19 PM) See Jimenez in 2017 for that. Moncada started out white hot and then fell back to earth. He also didn’t do a great job as RHer against lefties and his K rate was way too high. Agreed about this with respect to Moncada. Because of his horrific K rate and craptacular splits, I thought it was incredibly premature and impossibly stupid to bring him up in a lost 2017 season. Why rush the guy to his future free agency, when he clearly had (and has) holes in his game? I also think that K rates and contact rates are predictive insofar as a prospect's future. But then, I seem to respect OBP & HATE Ks much more than this front office does.
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 13, 2018 -> 08:09 AM) He's clearly a bust. If he isnt hitting now, he'll never hit. He's almost 23 for crying out loud. No one who is any good has ever had a rough 10 game stretch. Except that it hasn't just been a 10 game stretch. He hasn't hit as a RH very well, except for a bit during garbage time in 2017. I think it's perfectly legit for fans to be concerned. For me, I view this 3 different ways: 1. Renteria needs to put ALL of his players in the best position to succeed, not just 1 guy out of 25. Moncada clearly isn't a leadoff man right now, & putting him there hurts the other 24 guys in the roster and THEIR development. 2. Im f***ing sick of hearing about "development at the MLB level" for prospects in this org. How has that worked out so far? Since Beckham, what has this org developed doing it this way? Even IF you buy Avi's juiced ball and BABIP-luck filled 2017 (I don't ), this org SQUANDERED a lot of controllable years for him. So, I don't want to see Eloy or Kopech until they're CLEARLY DOMINANT in Charlotte, even if I have to wait until 2019. The rush-and-hope system simply hasn't worked for this org, full stop. 3. All of that said, I believe in Moncada's potential. He just may squander half of his controllable years before he figures it out at the MLB level. But batting him leadoff is hurting him and hurting his team mate's development, IMHO. Letting him continue to spin his wheels as a RH bat hurts him & hurts his team mates, IMHO.
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I already know what others will say about this, but batting a strikeout machine 1st is actively hurting the rest of the team. I don't give a DAMN about this being a "developmental year" for Moncada; it's ALSO a "developmental year" for this pitching staff, too. It simply can't be easy for Geo or Lopez or Fulmer to take the mound knowing that if they make a single mistake , they'll lose. I thought it was premature to promote Moncada a year ago, because his RH splits sucked ass in AAA. That issue has continued into this season. But what's done is done, & for better or worse, he's here. I think the way forward for Moncada is to sit him for a few days, then bring him back into the lineup in the lower 3rd of the lineup.
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 1, 2018 -> 11:54 AM) You say you have conceded it, yet you keep bringing up as a vital measure, which means you really haven't. Actually, I brought it up in post #38, & not since then. (Double-checking, & there's no mention by me in either post #49, nor in post #54; I see where you've not only mentioned it twice, but you found several references to defend Engel at all costs.) Since post #38, I've agreed with you where I can. But since it appears you want a message board "win," here: Let's even ASSUME that Engel is the best defender, EVAR! Do you think he'll hit enough to not be a negative to his team mates?
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 1, 2018 -> 11:13 AM) A -1 DRS in 97 games of a rookie season when all other evidence points to the contrary is exactly what should be ignored, especially under the circumstances of the way the season played out. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 1, 2018 -> 11:15 AM) You also might want to read this note on how to use DRS. And I've already conceded that a partial year DRS is an imperfect measure. However, it isn't a positive sign for him. But, you're focusing on the less-important part of my view, which DA states pretty well: QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 1, 2018 -> 11:25 AM) It's pretty obvious Engel is an excellent defender, but he is not excellent enough to ignore his lack of offense. He will have to pick that up significantly. In an offensively-favorable environment in 2017, Engels WRC+ was 37. That's NL middle reliever-type offensive production. IF he DOUBLED his offensive output to a WRC+ of (snicker) 74, he'd still be a net negative to the team. IMO, if he gets the nod to start the season, Id give him a short leash, say some ~100 or so PA to prove his bat. But I think it would be better for Engel (and the org) for him to help Kopech, et. Al in Charlotte, while he tries to improve his bat in AAA.
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 1, 2018 -> 10:13 AM) Quoting carefully selected defensive metrics (while ignoring everything else) from a partial season of play is the worst sin possible when it comes to how to use these stats. It pretty much invalidates everything else. No doubt. But, the existence of negative evidence regarding Engels defense can't be ignored, IMO. I simply don't take as gospel that he's a great defender, and yes, he definitely passes the eye test. But is his glove enough to exclude other candidates? I don't think so. QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 1, 2018 -> 10:18 AM) I think this is overlooked. The team is going to put the defense on the field to help its pitching as much as possible because it helps the young pitchers gain confidence and it helps increase the value of the guys that you may be looking to flip at the deadline. I'll never doubt that CF is a primarily defensive position. But, how does it help Giolito or Lopez to be constantly under duress, knowing his team mates may not back him offensively? How hard is it on a kid to have to be "perfect," or else he'll lose 3-0 every game, Quintana-style? I'm NOT suggesting that Engel or whoever is in CF has to be a big offensive threat. I'm merely suggesting that he CAN'T be a net negative to the team via utter offensive incompetence.
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I don't get why some posters over here fall all over themselves to overlook all of Engels clear flaws, while other CF candidates strengths are ignored. I mean, I question Engels purported strength as a defender, given his inferior defensive metrics. (Yes, he made some highlight reel plays last year, but the fact remains that his DRS was negative last year.) At the same time, despite Engel having sucked at hitting at virtually every stop in MiLB, posters still have this insane "hope" that he'll magically start hitting in The Show. Meanwhile, Tilson and Cordell have both out hit Engel at every stop. For me, the depth chart @ CF should be: 1. Leury (better metrics in every way than Engel last season) 2. Cordell/Tilson (better bats than Engel) 3. May/Engel as injury replacements & Charlotte placeholders.
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When I clicked on this thread, I half-expected there to be a tweet about Basabe being injured. That aside, I don't see how Basabe is at all like a strikeout machine whose body is made entirely of glass. I have somewhat higher hopes for him than I do for Adolfo.
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Yeah, even if a poster is a 1-note symphony, and even if that poster posts opinions we don't share, just banning someone for those reasons ain't really "The American Way," so to speak. WSI was notable for doing this, & now that site is infinitely less interesting as a result. That aside, I don't think that framing an argument to sign a player around, "the payroll will be around so-and-so million in 2019, so OF COURSE the Sox should sign every middling FA available" is a good argument. IMHO, the more cogent argument for or against a player acquisition is the progress or lack of progress the youngsters make this season. Because if it turns out that many/most of the youngsters suck, then no amount of FA spending will make a difference. If, however, some/more youngsters surprise us, then a bit of WELL-PLACED investments can do the trick.