Two-Gun Pete

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Feb 16, 2018 -> 08:03 AM) But that may not make a difference. One issue Hahn may see is how important is the defense to the young pitchers. Is it worth having a .200 hitting gold glove type over someone who can play some defense and hit. He may see the value of making Engel the 4th outfielder but using him mostly on days the young pitchers are on the mound. When your starting CFer had a pathetic 37 WRC+ in the inflated offensive environment of 2017, his defense simply does not matter; at THAT weak an offensive output, he's a net negative to the team, even if he's the best defensive CFer in the history of MLB. Now, if Engel an get his WRC+ to ~80 or so, AND play stellar defense, then that's a different matter. But I doubt he's capable of doing so. We'll see.

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Feb 14, 2018 -> 11:27 PM) Engel's D is amazing Is it really "amazing," though? I'll grant that the defensive metrics aren't all that great (yet). But, his DRS was negative last year, while Leury's was +3. I too am not sold on Engel, & I don't get the love for a guy whose bat makes him look like a future starting CFer. In Korea. Especially when there are so many other options in the system with better overall credentials.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 10:11 PM) Thor and TDA for RA Dickey has got to rank up there I can't agree with this; at a minimum, Dickey was coming off a Cy Young winning campaign when he was traded, if memory serves. By comparison, Shields was one of the worst pitchers before he was traded. In fact, he was probably hours away from being DFA'd, if the Padres' ownership had their druthers at the time. R A Dickey for Thor hurt, but at least Dickey had arguable value, whereas Shields was and is one of the suckiest sucks that ever sucked.

QUOTE (New Era on South Side @ Jan 21, 2018 -> 12:29 AM) Is Barry’s supposed to be offensive? Nah, Wanne had a hard time reading and comprehending English. So, I wanted to cite him as closely as possible, so that he wouldn't get confused. Now, let's all sit back, & wait for a run-on paragraph, replete with "whataboutism," courtesy of Wanne.

QUOTE (Wanne @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 08:17 PM) Those the same polls that had Hillarybilly winning huge before the election?!? Yeah...you carry on Champ lol...nice try. Well, reading is a skill... I did write "approval rating polls," did I not? Feel free to show us any of "Barry's" approval ratings being anywhere as low as Donny's. (PROTIP: you won't find them. Just be a big boy about it, & admit being wrong about "Barry being as despised as Trump.")

agreed.

QUOTE (Wanne @ Jan 20, 2018 -> 01:50 PM) lol...where the hell were you people from 2008 to 2016 with the Divider in Chief in charge? Barry did more to completely divide this country and stir up racial divide than anybody I've seen in my lifetime...but it all depends on what side of the fence you're on huh? I realize most on this board kissed his ass at every turn...they saw absolutely nothing he did as bad. That's your home boy from Chicago...I get it. It's why I usually never get involved in these type of threads/forums. Barry was just as despised...and by just as large a segment. Yeah, I'm guessing it'll be "fake news" to you, but approval ratings polls have told us a completely different narrative. But, by all means, carry on believing as you do, if that's what you want.

I don't see Yelich as being a fit for the rebuild, and I don't see him as being a CFer going forward. Looking @ Fangraphs, he has a negative DRS as a CFer. What's worse, this is in the NL, where the opposing pitcher hits, and thus there may be fewer opportunities for a CFer to make plays. One would anticipate that his DRS would worsen in the Big Boy AL. He DOES have a positive DRS in LF, and comparable power numbers to Avi. However, him moving off CF would reduce his value to an acquiring team. IF Yelich were to be acquired, I'd view him as a replacement for Avi in one of the corners, rather than as a CFer. [Though, I wouldn't want to send Miami anything of value to do so, and I do not support his acquisition.]

QUOTE (hi8is @ Sep 22, 2017 -> 12:28 AM) It's far to soon to be going around calling Carson "garbage" but I actually was pissed on draft day when the Red Sox picked Benitendi. This post has been edited by the Soxtalk staff to remove objectionable material. Soxtalk encourages a free discussion between its members, but does not allow personal attacks, threats, graphic sexual material, nudity, or any other materials judged offensive by the Administrators and Moderators. Thank you.

Yeah, useless wins like any of the ones we've seen recently turn into garbage time heroes like Carson Fulmer, as opposed to an Andrew Benintendi on draft day.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Sep 21, 2017 -> 06:18 PM) Avi's red flags are why it's better to not trade him or extend him at this point. Let him play next season and go from there. His future does not need to be determined right now. But there are two problems with doing nothing: 1. If Avi's 2017 is a mirage, then his value will never be higher. (Based on his overall body of work, & the very favorable offensive environment this season, & his luck, I happen to believe it is a mirage.) 2. Whether this is a "new normal," or a mirage, his controllable years are running out; this could make Avi more expensive to extend after 2018, or scupper his trade value, JD Martinez-style. I still say "sell high." I buy the track record, not the one lucky year if I'm Hahn.

Yeah, I REALLY don't want them to take a HS player with their first pick, for a variety of reasons. I simply don't believe that this org is competent enough to make the correct pick, & then successfully take that young man all the way through the system. Better to take the best college bat available, regardless of position, with the 1st round pick.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 7, 2017 -> 08:58 AM) "These toolsy athletes who could play defense did not develop into good hitters, ergo no toolsy athletes will develop into hitters" still remains weak logic. At the same time, players with mediocre MiLB track records generally don't go on to be productive MLB hitters. And it is beggars belief to hope otherwise. The hardest skill to acquire (wihin the limits of a player's natural ability) is to hit MLB pitching. Engel wasn't even above-average for the majority of his time in the minors. And others who came before him that were mediocre in MiLB were similarly unable to improve. Why would Engel be any different? I'll leave it at this: Even though the 2018 team doesn't figure to be competitive, the best player should still play over lesser ones. I'm simply not convinced that Engel is the best option, based on the entirety of his track record, & his abject lack of hitting ability @ the MLB level.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Sep 6, 2017 -> 04:02 PM) However, it is not necessary to stretch the imagination, in order to see Engel's realistic potential. He is really only lacking in one critical skill; he does not make consistent contact. He has power and elite speed and athleticism, do go along with his stellar defense, but obviously he has got to figure out how to become a productive, or at least acceptable hitter. You can't teach speed, athleticism or power, but you can teach hitting. Everything you just wrote here was said about Brian Anderson. And Jordan Danks. And others. (DeWayne Wise, perhaps as well?) How did that work out for them? Engel is a fine defender. But if he can't hit, he shouldnt be a starter. If any fandom has seen the "good glove/s***ty hitting" CFer fail, it should be this one. Whether we like it or not, Engel could be a decent 4th or 5th OFer on a good team. But that's about it for "the possibilities" for a guy who can't hit. Also, after a few years of MiLB, a hitter is largely what he's going to be. Engel can't be "taught" how to hit any more than Brian Anderson, or Danks, or any of the other "toolsy" types that KW craved for this org. Engel can work "on the margins" of his ability, but I doubt he'll amount to much of anything at the plate.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Sep 5, 2017 -> 08:12 PM) I highly doubt SS gets any of the treatment you are suggesting. And if the plan is for Davidson to man 3B all year, then Leury's only chance at a starting gig is CF. Personally I think Leury is the perfect super-sub and I'd rather see a Tilson/Engel CF, leaning Engel. Oh, I agree that Anderson will be gifted the SS position. But, Leury has been the better player, despite not playing his natural position for most of the season. I was just stating my preference that Id rather have the best player play, & that whoever he is, that he EARN it. Ultimately, I'll agree that Leury's best role on the next good SOX team will be as a super sub. But to start 2018, he's been better than at least two of the starters have been in 2017. QUOTE (credezcrew24 @ Sep 5, 2017 -> 09:03 PM) And that's a major flaw of WAR. Leury has looked like a complete armature in CF while Engel has looked good. The metrics will tell you they've been equal and that couldn't be farther from the truth. Disagreed. WAR accounts for both defensive & offensive contributions by a player. And while Leury isn't a natural CF (yet), he also isn't a liability out there; certainly not the liability that Engel has been @ the plate. In fact, I believe that Leury's DRS has been better than Engel's. But, I'll agree that Engel looks better by the eye test in CF. On balance, all of the options @ CF & SS have their warts. But, Leury has been the better player of the three, full stop. Now, whether or not he or Anderson or Engel can be a provider of positive WAR going forward is a reasonable debate. But Engel's track record has been one that suggests him not being capable enough to be a starter. We'll see...

Yeah, Engel is a negative WAR player, at -0.4 fWAR in 71 games. Leury is at a +1.1 fWAR in 87 games. Leury was pretty good before the injury, and not as much thereafter. He's also got much more positional versatility than pretty much anyone else in the roster, and is a switch hitter. On balance, if it were a choice between Engel and Leury, I'd probably go with Leury, given that Engel simply can't hit enough to be a starter. I'm also not convinced that Engel is an overall better player than Tilson, but for Tilson being made of glass. I do like competition, and I would not count out any of our cavalcade of middling OF options for next season. I'd let Tilson, Engel, and Liriano duke it out for CF; I'd let Anderson and Leury duke it out @ SS for next season.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 3, 2017 -> 08:42 AM) Avi does have a career BABIP of .340 though, he's a high BABIP hitter. Heck ZIPS forecasts him as a .353 BABIP hitter going forward, so even with a 40 point drop he can still be a useful player. Here's the thing: If Avi is a ~3.0 WAR player with a .395-ish BABIP, what is he if/when his BABIP regresses 49 points? Perhaps a 2.0 WAR player? For me, there's too much downside risk to count on him sustaining his BABIP going forward. As such, I wouldn't want to count on him, or else this FO may give a contract expecting more than he's likely to provide. That said, while I prefer to sell high on Avi, I fully expect this FO to extend him.

QUOTE (Soha @ Sep 3, 2017 -> 09:08 AM) Weren't we being told in May that his BABIP was unsustainably high and that he could never pull it off for a whole season? Well he did. If anything, his numbers might be unlucky low because of the drop from the time he tried playing through the injury. Count me in as one who would like the Sox to explore a contract extension with him. That's the thing about luck, & why it's a bad idea to rely upon it for strategic planning. One never knows when it will run out. Consider: Some players parlay an artificially good 2016 into a contract extension. Right, Tim Anderson? Others start out with unsustainable BABIPS to start 2017, only to wilter out as the season progresses. Right, Leury Garcia? Right, Micker Adolfo? In other words, BABIP luck can last an entire season, or it can only last a few weeks. Who knows? When you look at the overall body of work on a player, the overwhelming majority of them are what their track records say they are. VERY RARELY do career mediocrities end up becoming Rod Carew, or Tony Gwynn, or Wade Boggs, as Avi looks like this season. While you're certainly free to believe in Avi, I reserve my right to doubt him. YMMV.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 3, 2017 -> 12:01 PM) This is practically a meme on Soxtalk. This guy sucks. The Sox should trade him for a lot. And yet, Shields-for-Tatis happened. All it takes is one imbecile to buy in.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Sep 3, 2017 -> 08:57 AM) So Avi is due for a massive degree of regression, he had one lucky season but Hahn should sell high on him??? Please keep this quiet because we don't want any other teams finding out they are going to get fleeced. QUOTE (Tony @ Sep 3, 2017 -> 10:38 AM) So based on your premise.......why would a team give the Sox ANY sort of value for Avi Garcia? Here's a true story for both of you: Once upon a time, an MLB GM actually traded Fernando Tatis Jr for the desiccated remains of James Shields. James Shields went on to be among the worst SPs in the game, while Fernando Tatis Jr looks like he might be one of the best prospects in the game. The moral of the story? All it takes is one imbecile to buy in. And, there's a sucker born every minute.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 3, 2017 -> 03:54 AM) Don't really agree with the strictly artificial. If it was so easy a lot more guys would be hitting .320 but hardly any do among the so many talented ball players in MLB. Is Avi the only one being so lucky or is it a product of hard work and making adjustments to his approach . Two things: 1. They were talking on the broadcast about how Avi has one of the highest BABIPs in Sox history, & also, the highest in the league. Therefore, there is (at a bare minimum) a massive degree of regression ahead of him. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=12,d 2. Do you believe in this one lucky season of his, or the mediocre pieces of 3+ seasons in which he was a poor player? I maintain that Hahn should sell high on him. There is no way that he will continue this level of performance. Extending him is this FO just begging to be made into a fool once again.

You're exactly right. His BABIP strongly suggests that these numbers are purely artificial and/or unsustainable. Meanwhile, he is getting closer to the end of his controllable years for this club, meaning he'd have to be extended at some point in the near future to stay here. Therefore, Hahn should sell high on Avi this offseason, even if you believe in these numbers. (I don't.)

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 23, 2017 -> 09:55 AM) The Fulmer start was a spot start due to a double-header. That had more to do with the luck of the rotation than anything else. Moncada was at a point where he wasn't getting anything from AAA. Collins also a reach, especially when you look at the level he is at, and the playing time squeeze he is getting with Zavala there. He is also having an artificially bad season due to experimenting with changes. They also kept guys like Giotlito and Lopez in AAA for almost the entire season when in years past they are probably on the opening day roster. Same with Moncada. They have taken their time to promote Zavala. Adolfo is still in low A despite his successes this season. Despite Kopech's domination he spent essentially the entire year at AA. Hansen never got a promotion out of A ball despite his dominance. This is off of the top of my head here, so I am sure I am missing some. Yes, Moncada's .216 BA as a RH bat in a bandbox in Charlotte really showed he "wasn't getting anything in AAA." He's conclusively proven he VANQUISHED AAA, through his continued DOMINANCE as a RH bat with his awesome .114 BA here in Chicago. Fulmer hadn't shown anything in AAA, & probably should have been in Birmingham to start the season. His placement in AAA in of itself was a push job, even moreso than the start. Volstad could have been used as a sacrificial lamb instead of Fulmer, or other options were equally available for the DH. Why reward mediocrity by giving him the start? For Collins vs Zavala, all I'll say is that the numbers conclusively show that Zavala is/was the more deserving hitter in A+. .220 BA for Collins is bad in A+. But promoting a .220 BA is even worse, & may not be the best for his development. We'll see. Giolito and Lopez were largely developed by other orgs, & finished here. I don't consider them rushed at all. Adolfo's previously-artificially high numbers have fallen as his BaBIP has properly regressed, & the Ks pile up. A 31% K rate in LOW A means he is a non-factor. He will likely never have an MLB PA with this org, as better, & more deserving prospects pass him up. Kopech and Hansen are near their IP limits, but Hansen did go from LOW A to A+ this year, contrary to your statement. While you may feel comfortable taking this front office at their word, I prefer to not be lied to by them. YMMV...

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 22, 2017 -> 02:58 PM) The Sox have really pumped the breaks on pushing prospects through the system in general in the past year. Well, they promoted Moncada, despite his craptacular splits; as a consequence, his numbers as a RH bat are as bad as a pitcher's. They promoted Zach Collins, again, despite inferior results. And, they stupidly gave Fulmer an MLB start, despite him not showing any good reason to-do so all season long. I'm sure there are other cases, but I don't believe that this FO has truly changed their ways about pushing prospects.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Aug 22, 2017 -> 08:48 PM) Leury is such a clown at times. I wonder if he wouldn't be a better starting SS than the current starting SS