Two-Gun Pete

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 11:39 PM) it's not a marketing move, seriously, what about this rebuild gives you that idea? This kid has maintaining #1 prospect status all year for a reason. Look beyond the slash line and see a guy that isn't going to learn how to be a big leaguer facing minor league pitchers. He's 22 and had about 200 PA above A ball coming into this year, including his "flop" last year in his 30 odd PA in MLB. Boston thought he could help them down the strech, obviously that was optimistic, but the Sox got this kid 4 months in AAA and he more than held his own. I view the skewed numbers coming out of Charlotte the same way I view the artificial numbers from a lot of places in the PCL. The park factor has skewed his numbers, IMO. Given his poor numbers v LHP, & poor numbers away from Charlotte, & his decline in performance over the course of the season, & this org's s***ty track record with prospects, I'm naturally concerned. I hope that I'm wrong, & I hope that Moncada overperforms. But I have reasons for my doubts.

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 11:31 PM) Those are the EXACT type of moves you have to do to compete nowadays if you can't have a 250m payroll. Lock a young guy up who shows promise for pennies and you hit the lotto, if he busts it's not a franchise crippling deal. Have you seem his splits? I mean, NO ONE can look @ those mediocre numbers (relative to his talent level), and say that he's ready without being full of b.s. Also, when you don't have a $250MM payroll, you MUST get player development right. You simply can't rush it, because you can't out spend any developmental mistakes.

QUOTE (daggins @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 11:21 PM) So going from one bandbox to another. He clearly has work to do but lets not pretend he doesn't have the talent to do it at the highest level. Ok, so what was the rush? I surely hope I'm wrong, but this feels stupidly premature. QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 11:23 PM) He's not getting called up because he's earned it. Par for the course for the org that just HAD TO give an extension to Anderson before he earned it as well. I hate this habit of "giving" contracts, promotions, etc... to players and members of this org before they earn it.

http://m.milb.com/milb/player/660162#nav_splits .216 BA vs. LHP. .236 BA, with a sub-.700 OPS away from The Charlotte Bandbox Burning service time on a crap team, when he hasn't conclusively vanquished AAA. I'll say it: I hate this call up. I'll be happy to be wrong, but white sox are gonna white sox this kid up.

And perhaps Panda is unflippable. But Id take a higher-rated prospect or two in addition to Panda, in exchange for Frazier & taking on some of Panda's contract. It isn't "just" trading for Panda. It's trading for Panda AND prospects. Or, Id be equally happy with Frazier-for-B/C prospects, then waiting for Sandoval to be free to sign for the league minimum, & picking him up @ that point. Either way, Im in favor of adding as many assets as possible.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 12:42 PM) Panda is far too large to flip. The Boston guy did say last night the deal isn't inevitable. At his full contract price, sure. But at he league minimum, he'd be a better flip project for this club. That's why Id have to imagine that the sawx would have to include something tasty for Hahn to take on significant cash. OTOH, even if this were a Frazier-for-B & C prospects, I still wouldn't mind signing Panda for the league minimum as a flip project. (While keeping Moncada in Charlotte for awhile longer.)

Id have to imagine that: 1.IF Hahn is doing the sawx the favor of geting them below the luxury tax (or 2-year luxury tax) by taking on some or all of Panda's contract, 2.THEN, any return would have to be significant. I wouldn't actually mind, because this system still needs bats, and Moncada needs time in AAA to work down his K-rate, improve his vs. LHP numbers, & hit better AWAY from the Charlotte bandbox. Panda is a reasonable flip candidate, given his history, but I wouldn't want him on this roster over the longer term. (READ: beyond 2018) Unless Dombrowski & Hahn worked something out in advance, I would doubt that he'd DFA Panda; if he did, Hahn could pick up Panda for the league minimum, & use as a flip project. We'll see...

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 11:14 AM) Maybe a bit, but let's be honest, he's been good not great in AAA. He hasn't exactly forced he organizations hand. Agreed on this point. Anyone who looks @ his (or any other Charlotte farmhand's) numbers is short changing their own analysis of a player if they don't also look @ the player's splits. Charlotte is such an offensively-slanted environment that it can skew a player's overall numbers, & give you a false reading on him. In Moncada's case, his vs. LHP splits and his away splits both show that he's not yet ready. Bring up Delmonico instead. If he fails, no big deal. But if Moncada fails, this rebuild could stall entirely, IMO.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jul 6, 2017 -> 11:42 AM) At this point, I'd be fine not seeing Moncada until next summer. I don't think that what the Sox will do, but I'd be fine with it. He has been good in AAA, but its not like he is playing so well he's given the Sox no choice but to call him up. I think i agree with this. Look @ his splits: http://m.milb.com/milb/player/660162#nav_splits V. LHP: .782 OPS, .218 ave V. RHP: .859 OPS, .311 ave In the Charlotte bandbox: .956 OPS, .329 BA Everywhere else: .725 OPS, .241 BA To those who would clamor for him being called up right now, I would caution against irrational exuberance. He doesn't look ready to me, IMHO; his overall numbers look skewed by the offensively-favored environment he enjoys @ home. Simply looking @ the overall numbers can lead one to conclude that Moncada is more ready than his splits would indicate.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 10, 2017 -> 10:50 AM) Which is exactly what Adolfo has gotten for the most part, with identical numbes. Meh, not so much "identical" numbers, from my view. Both K @ a fairly high rate, ~26% for Tatis, vs ~30% for Adolfo. But the mitigating factor for Tatis is his relatively high BB rate, @ 12% vs a middling 5% rate for Adolfo. Regardless, as many others have said, it was a trade that was so stupid, it insulted the terminally stupid. Given THAT crappy roster, with demonstratably the worst manager in White Sox history, I still can't fathom why that happened. Hell, had they waited a day or two, Shields might have been DFA'ed, & available for free. At this point, Id rather look forward to whatever Frazier & Cabrera will provide in trade than look backward at (yet another) dumb move made by this FO.

QUOTE (maxjusttyped @ Jul 8, 2017 -> 07:21 PM) That's what rebuilding looks like. Throw enough darts and hopefully 1 of Davidson, Yolmer, Leury, Engel, etc ends up sticking. Oh, I'm aware. I just don't hold much hope for Davidson going forward. I actually want to see more of Yolmer & Leury; they both have MiLB track records that suggest that they may be capable @ this level. QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jul 8, 2017 -> 07:30 PM) Yup, there is zero reason to keep Frazier around. If Davidson ultimately fails, then try someone else there. Delmonico & Sanchez are both waiting in the wings and there's always the possibility of claiming/picking up a failed prospect. Agreed that both Frazier & Cabrera need to go. My ideal outcome would be for Davidson to finish out the year, while Delmonico works out the holes in his glove in Charlotte.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 8, 2017 -> 07:11 PM) They have to move Frazier. No need to keep him around or re-sign him. Davidson's fine for a stop gap, plus an audition to see if he's more. Davidson & his 42% K rate will help this team tank it's way into a top 2 or top 3 pick. We just need another team to trade for Frazier sooner, so Matty The K Machine can do his part.

What an awesome trade that was for Samardzija. Thank God they really went for it with that team and that manager. Seriously though, good luck to Ynoa. Here's hoping he figures it out, as we need as many youngsters as possible to figure it out.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 3, 2017 -> 09:01 AM) Versus the odds of a typical prospect succeeding at 21%, and not just a cherry picked one with the most ideal of circumstances as was pointed out here? It is also worth pointing out in the 4 years since this article was written, the K rate of major league also has accelerated greatly since then, and might even have outdated this research. Couple things that I'd like to add: 1. You said "typical" prospect. However, the research looked into the careers of position players that appeared in a Top 100/Top 150 list. This is actually the oposite of a "Cherry picked" sample, as you suggested. Adolfo has to look up about ~100 spots or so before he sniffs a Top 100 list. Because of this, his likelihood of busting is Higher, not lower. 2. You cite 21% as a success rate, but again, that's for all (high OR low OR average K rate) among Top 100 position players. When you further filter to Adolfo"s cohort (again, the exact opposite of "cherry picking ") the success rate (if he were in a Top 100 list, which he isn't ) is a mere 13%. For a non-Top 100 type, the success rate is likely less. Lastly, I agree that the research is dated. But, I challenge you to find a study that shows that it is a GOOD THING for a prospect to have a high K rate & low BB rate. If we have subsequent research that shows the opposite of this one, then I'll agree that this study should be disregarded. Thanks for disagreeing, without being disagreeable. And if you have contrary research, Id love to see it.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 1, 2017 -> 09:29 PM) Let's see your research then. Not really "my" research, but here, I'll Google that for you: https://www.beyondtheb...rates-prospects From the article: "...only 13% of high K prospects succeeded without a high walk rate, 76% busted without one..." For this article, a high K rate was defined as being >22%, whereas a high walk rate was defined as being >11%. We can go back-and-forth about "tools," or his age, or whatever perceived extenuating excuses one may have for him. The fact remains that Adolfo has a 30% k rate in low A, which suggests that he has scant chances of making it. I'll leave it at this: As a Sox fan, I hope he proves the numbers wrong, but it ain't looking good for him.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 1, 2017 -> 10:54 AM) You can't teach tools or raw power...it's like the former pitching phenom who gets opportunities with seven different organizations because he can touch 99. And his tools mean little, if he cannot reduce the strikeouts, and make contact at a greater rate. There are PILES of suspects with "raw power" in this and in other orgs that amounted to nothing. QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jul 1, 2017 -> 11:36 AM) Who is calling Adolfo a sure thing? He's a physically gifted young prospect finally putting those tools to work for the first time in his career. Yes, we all know the K rate is a huge concern, but that doesn't mean he's not a legit prospect. And the four years thing is absolute nonsense. He missed almost all of 2015 and about half of 2016. This is essentially his first full season of professional baseball. All things cosidered, this season has been a huge success so far. Again, take away the name and the signing bonus. If any other player had had his middling career hereto fore, that player would be looked at as a suspect, not a prospect. Again, I am hopeful that he makes it, but in reality, most farmhands do not. And even fewer in low A with a high K rate make it, regardless of whatever "tools" a player is purported to possess. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 1, 2017 -> 05:00 PM) I can't believe that you are treating him like a normal 4th year player in A ball. He was a true 17 year old in rookie ball for his first season. Injuries have also held him back to the point where he had about a seasons worth of ABs during those first three seasons. He is a raw 21 year old in A ball. There is nothing wrong with that unless you frame things to look worse than the actually are. He is also a guy who has made a significant leap this season. Instead of getting hurt feeling everytime someone points out the truth to you on an overreaction, maybe just learn from it and move on? No one's hurt here. Adolfo simply isn't a prospect until he can drop the K rate. That has always been my position with him. Actually, I regarded him as a suspect until he can successfully complete a season without a major injury, AND that he can cut the K rate down. On the former, I'll agree: 2017 has been a success for him; on the latter, we'll see. That said, there is plenty of research that indicates that K-rates matter greatly in prospects. Unsurprisingly, prospects with high K rates bust the most. This is especially true in prospects that have high K rates in the lower minors, as in Adolfo's case. Do you disagree? If so, feel free to counter the research that shows that high K-rates tend to lead prospects to bust. Or the observations of plenty of Sox farmhands that busted due to a high K rate, coupled with "tools" or "athleticism" or "raw power." I've got an open mind, and an honest hope that each and every Sox farmhand makes it to Cooperstown. [Even though I know that most won't make it.]

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jul 1, 2017 -> 09:59 AM) So you'd give up on a guy because of a high K-rate just because it's his 4th pro season? If you were GM, there would be lots of guys ages 19-21 leaving our system and then becoming MLB players with other teams... Look, I leave open the door for Adolfo, IF he can drop the K-rate. I just reserve the right to not count on a K machine in Low A. I can't believe this is so controversial to some. I'm interested in having good players in the system, so that they can make the Big club good one day. Take away the kid's name, & his signing bonus for a second: Would you get as butt-hurt about a hypothetical 4th year player in low A with Adolfo's disappointing track record being called a "suspect?"

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 1, 2017 -> 09:40 AM) http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=m...itting/2017/ALL Where do you get that idea about Adolfo's numbers...trending up for the past month. Also has five walks in his last ten games. Tilson, if 100% healthy, is Pods lite at a time and place when the homer reigns supreme again. If healthy. (Shrugs) Adolfo was >.300 on his BA just a few weeks ago. But who cares? Almost anyone who's into his 4th professional season, & is still w/a ~29% K rate in low A is not a prospect, he's a suspect. I do not care how "highly rated" he was when he was signed. I do not care about his age, & I do not care about any injuries, and I do not care about his so-called "tools." He's K'ing in 29% of his PAs in low A. Now, if he can magically reduce his K rate, then Adolfo can again become a prospect. Agreed about Tilson being Pods lite if healthy. That said, I don't believe any of the OFers in the system, apart from Robert, will be regular 3 WAR or more players.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 1, 2017 -> 09:00 AM) Leury, Engel, Hanson, W. Garcia are all ahead of him, even May. Then you have the possibility of Moncada or Anderson. He's not going to be cut, but his odds of making it with the Sox now are pretty much infinitesimal. I don't disagree that his injuries have let others pass him in a theoretical depth chart. But, given that at least one OFer in the MLB roster (Melky) WILL be gone before year's end, & perhaps 2 or more might be gone as well, having depth matters. After all, they'll still need to field a team. But, once you get past the OFers already in Chicago, it's not as though there are any prospects to block. Basabe probably struck out again as I was typing this. Call has been just as injured as Tilson this year. Fisher's still in high A. Adolfo's numbers are in free-fall, as his Babip drops and the Ks pile up in low A. Robert is still n the DR. So yeah, Tilson may never make it, but then again, most of us wanted Leury gone before this season, too. We'll see.

QUOTE (lord chas @ Jun 30, 2017 -> 08:41 PM) Cut him and use his roster spot on someone else that can actually stay healthy I get that we're all disappointed in him being seemingly perpetually injured. But before you advocate cutting him, let's think about how many "ready" or "near-ready" OF options there are in the system. Also, let's think about exactly WHO is he blocking right now? And lastly, given that we should hope that Melky will be moved for prospects, and (perhaps) Avi may be moved before he turns back into Avi, OF prospect depth may matter more than you'd think right now. Sucks for the kid that he's injured. But again, who is he blocking right now?

QUOTE (Tony @ Jun 27, 2017 -> 01:30 PM) For you, the guy that sits in front of his computer and posts here? Nothing at all. For a Front Office that does this for a living? That extension becomes a lot more expensive while Anderson "earns" his extension. It was a calculated risk. Look, with where the salary structure of the roster, I would argue that it would remain a better deal to be more certain about what the organization was committing to.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 27, 2017 -> 09:25 AM) Tim Anderson is making $4 million per year. If he averages 0.5 WAR per year, he'll be worth the money. There was nothing wrong with that extension whatsoever. You will end up eating your words on that one. Except that we don't know if he's actually any good at hitting as yet, which is the primary difference between a starting position player and bench fodder. The salary isn't the issue. It's the fact that he hasn't proved he deserves an extension or not. Given that he's relatively inexperienced, what would have been wrong with letting him EARN the extension? I'm other words, waiting until the end of this season, or sometime in 2018?

Agreed that it's a bit early to judge the progress of the rebuild heretofore. I'm happy to have been wrong about the Front Office's willingness to sign Robert. I'm sad to have seen the impossibly premature extension given to Tim Anderson, whose performance @ the plate looks like that was a bad move. One wonders if Leury might be the better SS going forward. I hate the idea of promoting Collins and his (EDIT) .209 batting average to AA; if he can't make contact, he's not really a prospect, is he? Many of the pitching prospects look like they'll be relievers (Giolito & Fulmer), while Burdi & Kopech need to cut their walk rates down. Otoh, Dunning has been a pleasant surprise. However, all of this said, we're very early in this process, and all of the trends I mentioned here can easily reverse themselves by year's end, for better or worse. This front office still has to disperse more veterans to get back some pieces, and this draft class has only started to report, so ask us in September how it's going then...

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 26, 2017 -> 11:59 AM) Alexei and Tim Anderson are so similar it isn't even funny. When Alexei got here, he had a ton of the same sorts of defensive problems with consistency and basic play execution. At the plate, they are the same hitter. Yeah, except that one Ks to the tune of ~26% of his PAs, whereas the other only K'ed >13% once. Oh, and one has a contact rate of 70%, whereas the other had a contact rate well into the 80s. One had a silver slugger to his name, whereas the other one ride a whopping Wrc+ of 95 to sucker KW into giving him a contract extension.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 18, 2017 -> 08:33 AM) A young, middle order bat is exactly that. See, Avi's Rod Carew-esque Babip has lead to irrational exhuberance, such as calling him a "middle order bat." Or recalling KW's unadulterated BS of calling Avi's potential as "30-30." Now, drop his Babip to a league average Babip, or even slightly above average, and Avi's a below average player, at best. Re-signing him would be insanity, IMO.