Two-Gun Pete

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 09:55 PM) I think it's impossible to get a "fair" package for Sale, you're right. However, I do think that a calculated risk such as the package I just outlined has the potential to be a fair return for Sale, and it could be better than keeping him on a mediocre team with no direction. And getting exactly Jack and Sh*+ for vets that have been sold off has contributed to this decade of sucktitude. While your suggested deal would be intriguing, I doubt that Dombrowski would make that offer. (They're already in the postseason as we type this.) if KW/Rick trade Sale or Q or anyone else, I'm ok with it, as long as they extract every single droplet of value. If not, & they get Avi-like returns, those two should be fired on the spot. (As an aside, I don't see Avi having been a ranked prospect of any repute, despite me looking for evidence of this on the interwebs. )

QUOTE (Black_Jack29 @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 10:12 PM) So, no, he's not too valuable to trade... for the right price. And if Hahn can't get that price right now, I'm totally cool with him waiting until the winter meetings to shop Sale again. And if that doesn't work out, he can wait until next year's trade deadline. If the Sox can't get their act together and compete for a wild card, it'll become a question of when, rather than if, the Sox should trade Sale. And again, come up with a realistic trade that'll get it done. Boston doesn't "need" to add a Sale-like player to compete; if the season ended today, they'd already be in the postseason. And I agree, in that as Sale nears the end of his contract, his surplus value declines. But to my original post, he is, RIGHT NOW, too valuable to receive sufficient return in trade. In a season or two, he will be tradeable, IMO.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 09:55 PM) WTF? Surely you can't be seriously?! Boston's only 2gb of Toronto for the ALE. They're already the 2nd WC right now. And I happen to think that they're better than the teams behind them. So yes, EVERY team can use a SP of Sale's quality. But, I think Boston can add a lesser player, and still compete, while coughing up MUCH less in trade.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 09:49 PM) I can see Dombrowski getting worried and offering Moncada, Benintendi, Kopech, Devers, Vazquez, Rodriguez, and Shaw. Off the top of my head, that actually may not be enough, when you add up the current & surplus value. At the same time, Boston might not need a ~2 WAR SP for the rest of this season to compete.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 09:36 PM) They're only trading him if they get an overwhelming offer. That's why he hasn't been moved. But to keep sucking and not try something else is silly. I'm not advocating trading him just to trade him but the deal needs to be right. I think it'll be this offseason. Even after this season, his surplus value will still be "only" ~$75M. If it happens this offseason, I would be surprised. Sale's current & surplus value will still be too expensive for most GMs to stomach, IMO. Otherwise, we agree: trade what you can, but anything less than fair value hurts this org.

QUOTE (Deadpool @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 09:35 PM) No one is too valuable to be traded. Everyone has a price when your team is consistently this bad Ok. Go ahead & add up his current & surplus value, then come up with: 1. A package that will be fair value, & 2. A team able to make such an offer, & 3. A GM with enough cajones to thoroughly gut their org for 'one guy.'

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 09:19 PM) Disagree on Peavy. He wasn't sold for peanuts. Garcia was a legit prospect that hasn't worked out. Montas became one and helped us land Frazier. Wendelken helped us land Lawrie. Fair enough. But the overriding points remain: 1. Sale is (currently) too valuable to be traded. 2. Trading just to trade is one reason why this organizationis mired in mediocrity.

QUOTE (Black_Jack29 @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 08:57 PM) Interesting analysis, but it fails to account for the fact that the Sox can't score enough runs to play .500 ball and don't have enough offensive talent in their minor league system to remedy this. To be honest, while I share your angst in this, the ineptitude of his team mates, his manager, & the front office have little to do with what he is actually worth in trade. Trading just to trade is one way this organization has slid into the crapper. See: Peavey, Swisher, & other vets sold for nothing as examples of this.

I Think it depends on how you define "blowing it." If the mouthbreathers in the front office trade away assets for less than FULL VALUE, yes that would be "blowing it." The craptacular returns for swisher & peavey hurt this organization every bit as much as the stupid acquisitions of mediocre veterans like Jeff S.

I truly can't see Sale getting traded. When you actually add up his value, I can't see any team coming close to giving up enough. Consider: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-begin...ng-trade-value/ Trade value is, more or less: 1. Current value, 2. +/- Surplus value, 3. +/- Rarity, 4. +/- The intellect or stupidity of the selling team. For Chris Sale, let's do a little back of the envelope arithmetic: 1. Current value ~5.25 average fWAR * 3.5 years = 18.4 fWAR 2. Surplus value is the difference between his contract & his production of fWAR. He's owed ~$42M thru 2019. Assuming each WAR costs $7M in free agency, he might 'cost' $128.8M to sign; Surplus value is thus: $128.8 - $42 = $86.8M. 3. There aren't as many 5 WAR players available in trade, much less a young lefty ace. In trade, such a player might be worth a handful of WAR as a 'kicker.' 4. This front office is incredibly stupid, so subtract perhaps 5 fWAR from Sale's trade value. (This is how Avi Garcia got here, & how Swisher was sold for a box of turds. ) All told, there is no logical way Sale gets traded. Or, put another way, if he IS traded in the next 2 seasons, it will mean that KW & Rick sold The Hope Diamond for the cost of cubic zirconium.

Given that Frazier is on track to have his worst year in his career this year, it would be selling low on him. His fWAR by year since 2012: 2.6 3.1 4.7 4.4 0.9 I think he's more likely to rebuild his value, and be traded @ the deadline next year.