Black_Jack29

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 22, 2016 -> 12:55 PM) My entire point is that if you're going to have Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera in your outfield Melky and Eaton both have a .790 OPS. Melky has hit 37 doubles and he and Eaton are slugging in the .440 and .430 range, respectively. If you think that those two are a drag on the run production simply because they don't hit as many homers as you'd like, you're wrong. As I've said twice already, the lack of HRs from DH is and has been a major problem. That's something that will have to be addressed this off-season. Saladino and Shuck are also part of the HR problem, but those two are only getting regular playing time because of injuries. Replace them with Lawrie and a halfway decent CF and you'll see the HR production increase. FWIW, the Sox are a good 20 or so HRs ahead of where they were last season. That can be attributed to Frazier. If Lawrie didn't get hurt and Abreu hit normally in the first half of this season, they'd be a good 35 HRs ahead of where they were last season.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 22, 2016 -> 11:53 AM) I'm cherry picking the seasons in which this team made the playoffs to highlight the reasons WHY they made the playoffs. Or perhaps they made the playoffs because they hit more HRs and because their rotation and bullpen were above average? What about all of those years when the Sox hit plenty of homers but their pitching was mediocre (1996, 1998, 2002, 2004)? What you're basically saying is that the Sox do well when they hit a lot of homers and they also happen to rank in the top of half of the AL in pitching. In other words, the Sox tend to not make the playoffs unless they score more runs than average (HRs are a large part of that) and they pitch better than average. Well, yeah, that's true for just about any team, regardless of their ballpark. The only point on which you and I seem to disagree which position players don't hit enough HRs. In the case of Anderson, it's too early to say that. In the case of Lawrie, he's Ray Durham with a .300 OBP. And while I agree that the slugging from our catchers has been below average, that's not a position where power is easy to come by. Not every team has a Buster Posey or Salvi Perez.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 22, 2016 -> 12:32 PM) Most middle infielders from those aforementioned teams: 2000 Jose Valentin - 25 HR, .835 OPS 2000 Ray Durham - 17 HR, .810 OPS 2005 Tadahito Iguchi - 15 HR, .780 OPS 2008 Alexei Ramirez - 21 HR .792 OPS You do a nice job of cherry-picking career high stats there, but the reality is that Alexei Ramirez was more typically a 15 HR, .740 OPS hitter. Iguchi had some power, but was basically a ~100 OPS+ hitter during his career with the Sox. Very average. It's true that Valentin and Durham had better power than average at their respective positions (especially Valentin). It'd be nice if the Sox farm system could develop another Ray Durham, but it hasn't. That said, I should point out that Lawrie slugged .413 this season. Extrapolated over the course of a full season, that'd put him on par with Ray Durham power-wise, but with fewer walks. If you think that the Sox need more HR power (and you wouldn't be wrong about that), the way to address it is through RF and DH. That's where the real power deficiency has been over the past few seasons.

(1) Anderson is a rookie and plays a position where defense comes before slugging. I don't see a problem with him, other than the fact that he shouldn't be hitting second. (2) Eaton and Melky's bats have been pluses this season. Both have plenty of extra-base hits. (3) Agreed here but, again, these are middle infielders. Most middle infielders don't hit like Robbie Alomar. (4) Catchers generally don't hit well at all but, even then, the Sox need to improve here. Trading away Navarro was a nice first step. The one guy who doesn't hit enough homers and who absolutely needs to is Avi. DH and RF are power positions, and his .386 SLG isn't going to cut it.

QUOTE (Coach @ Sep 22, 2016 -> 04:41 AM) We can disagree on a few things but what I was trying to point out is no matter what talent level a team has, it takes more than that to be champions. It takes heart. It also takes a lot of luck. As in Jon Garland, Cliff Politte, and Dustin Hermanson all having career years. And Bobby Jenks coming out of nowhere and dominating. And Jose Contreras having one more dominant run at his advanced age. And Joe Crede reaching his potential at exactly the right time. The Sox were lucky for the first five or six weeks of the season, and then it all fell apart. Abreu couldn't hit for power for the first half of the season, and looked like he was nursing a nagging injury. Albers completely fell apart. Rodon wasn't very good for the first four months of the season. Petricka went on the DL. Lawrie and A-Jax got hurt. Age appeared to creep up on Navarro and Robertson. For the Sox to make the postseason next year, they need to get better at DH and CF, and they need to better luck than they had this year. Those factors are way more important than Hawk's "the will to win" metric.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 21, 2016 -> 07:39 PM) I haven't really seen a lack of effort. Take last night. Down 4 runs in the 9th, they still were fighting to get back into an absolutely meaningless game. Yep. Whatever one thinks of Robin as a manager, I don't ever recall seeing players mailing it in under his stewardship.

QUOTE (harkness @ Sep 21, 2016 -> 07:11 PM) 41-33 at home 31-46 on the road. We must have some more talent at home than on the road. We're also 16-13 vs. the AL East, but 29-41 vs. a slightly inferior AL Central. Conclusions can't always be drawn from splits stats.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Sep 21, 2016 -> 04:05 PM) How can you guarantee that? You have absolutely no idea who they are interested in and who would replace him. Who has Coop developed lately? Who has taken the next step? Seriously? By my count, among the current roster, Coop gets credit for developing Sale, Quintana, Rodon, and Nate Jones. And if we want to go back a little bit further, you can include Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, and Jenks. And then he got some really nice shorter-term results out of Loaiza, Garland, Contreras, and several others. You'll be hard-pressed to find a better active pitching coach than Cooper. It's the fourth week of September and the Sox have only give up about 670 runs (for reference, the Sox gave up 645 runs in 2005). What's been "atrocious" has been the Sox's offense, not their pitching.

QUOTE (harkness @ Sep 21, 2016 -> 03:46 PM) But the "talent" excuse is just as much of a crutch as the "blame the coach" excuse. Not really. Hitting talent scores runs. Replacing Ventura with a different manager will have minimal effect on offensive output. I do agree that they've (offensively) underachieved, though. Hopefully they'll address that this winter.

QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 21, 2016 -> 02:41 PM) It's a gamble I hope they make. My hope is the new manager has a stronger grasp on what he wants to do with the pitching staff himself. If Cooper isn't calling the shots like he's used to, there could be some problems. We'll see what happens on October 3rd. I guarantee you that whoever they'd get to replace Cooper would be a downgrade. If JR is smart, he'll let Coop continue to do his thing and fill out the rest of the coaching staff with people who can improve offensive output.

QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 21, 2016 -> 02:32 PM) It's not like he's a bad pitching coach, but my feeling is if they're going to change the clubhouse and the leadership, start fresh. We all know Cooper is the manager of the pitching staff...and that could be a part of the current problem. Clean house. Start fresh. Why throw the baby out with the bath water? Coop is the one clear-cut positive on the coaching staff right now. Even with a mid-season bullpen implosion, the Sox are (likely) going to still allow less than 700 runs this season. That's pretty impressive for a team with a disaster #5 starter, no reliable 7th inning reliever, no true LOOGY, and a closer having a below-average year. The Sox have not had anything close to a bad pitching staff since 2007.

I'm also not buying this idea that the players are dogging it. That completely contradicts what I see. The Sox are barely going to score 650 runs this season. THAT'S the problem.

My guess is that it'd be Renteria. He has managerial experience, he knows the players, he knows the organization, he speaks Spanish, and my understanding is that the Cubs only parted ways with him because Maddon was available. I figured that was the reason they hired Renteria as bench coach in the first place. I'm not understanding the comments about Cooper. Does he want to leave, or is he rubbing the wrong people the wrong way? His results don't seem to be a problem.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 4, 2016 -> 12:44 PM) http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/8/3/123...trigger-on-sale Red Sox were unwilling to trade Moncada or Betts... I love his closing line... Typical Northeast jackassery. If Dombrowski doesn't want to give up Moncada or Betts, he's going to have to give up either Bradley or the #2-5 prospects in the Red Sox system, and probably something else on top of that. If he doesn't like that, he's going to have to settle for a lesser pitcher.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 4, 2016 -> 01:37 PM) The point is Anderson and Saladino cant both be starters....at that ops, so they need yet another player. The Sox are going to run Anderson out there at least five days a week because he's projected to be a starting ML shortstop and they have no other realistic options. The Sox will get Lawrie back next year and Saladino will be able to return to being a utility player.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Aug 4, 2016 -> 01:23 PM) I just don't think they'll touch their major league roster. Would love it but I don't know. That's why I made the Moncada, Benny, Kopech, Devers and Vaquez deal. If they're allowed to keep Benny and Moncada, I think that they could be convinced to deal Betts or Bradley. They have A LOT of offensive talent on both the major league and minor league rosters.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 4, 2016 -> 12:52 PM) Wtf is wrong with Hawk? He's like not paying attention or something. Sounds like he has a bad cold or something.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 4, 2016 -> 11:36 AM) That's fine. Avi had a OPS over .800 and was hitting over .300 his first 58 games of 2015. And again, I never said Avi was better than him. Puig is obviously better, but he's owed over $17 million after this year, and the trend as been going in the wrong direction. If he's doing so great, why is he in AAA? There are obviously some issues. I have a hard time believing the Dodgers are not going to have to eat some of that contract if they want to trade him. The Dodgers also gave up some good minor league talent to get Reddick to replace Puig (to be fair, they also got Hill). That tells me that the Dodgers don't think much of Puig at this point.

Price and Porcello fail to get it done down the stretch and Dombrowski's hand is forced... Sale and Melky to the Red Sox for Betts, Devers, and Groome

Shut him down for the season. Thanks for the update.

QUOTE (dpd9189 @ Aug 3, 2016 -> 10:05 PM) If the Sox do a total rebuild, they need to trade both Q and Sale. These two guys will bring back the best packages in both quantity and quality of players/prospects. If you look at what is in the Sox organization right now, who are your starters in 2018? Frazier and Melky are UFA's after next year, they have no centerfielder, catcher (I know Zack Collins is a catcher but he might be a better fit at DH) or 2B right now. Abreu is a negative WAR player now and the jury is still out on Tim Anderson. This organization needs to start acquiring/drafting/developing everyday core players which right now they severely lack. Also if the Sox do a total rebuild, the next few years will suck but if they do it right then they can be good for a long time. People often complain on how long it took the Cubs to rebuild, however it only took them 3 seasons. Epstein took over after the 2011 season so 2012 was the first season of their rebuild, 3 years later they were in the NLCS. So rebuilds can be done if a short amount of time if they're done right. Hopefully the Sox follow suit and do this right. If they do, then I'll fully support it. Beats watching a 75 win team year after year. I'm not sure that trading both Sale and Q will help this organization more than just trading one of them. I think that the Sox can get 3-4 Top 25 prospects or 2 Top 25 prospects and a really good young ML player for Sale, and then you have Q under team control until 2020. The Sox have a middle-of-the-road payroll that would allow them to get a semi-decent DH and a good defensive catcher to back up Collins via free agency. I'd also like to see them offer Frazier an extension, and I think that a diminished Abreu hitting in front of him wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. If you trade both Sale and Q, you're relying on Rodon and Fulmer to be your #1 and #2. I don't see evidence that Rodon is going to be an ace and I haven't seen anybody project Fulmer to be more than a #3. And then you have to find #3 and #4 starters, and hope that Shields is doable as a #5. If the Sox can get somebody like Kopech in return and he turns out to be a stud as projected, then that certainly helps. But that seems risky to me when you already have a proven stud like Q.

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Aug 3, 2016 -> 03:43 PM) Two sources recently told me that you would be correct if you placed your bet in JR's direction. He does not want a rebuild so unless something drastically changes there will not be. If Hahn is able to get a really nice mix of ML talent and near-ready prospects in return for Sale, where the Sox might take half a step back in 2017 but would be able to move forward in 2018, hopefully JR would let him make that deal. Otherwise, we're going to have 77-83 win teams for the next few years.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 3, 2016 -> 12:58 PM) The Dodgers putting out "false stories" about him going crazy in the clubhouse when it didn't even happen...just doesn't make any sense to sabotage the value of your own player. The source was solid enough a few of the national baseball beat writers picked it up and had to apologize to Puig and Adam Katz (agent). My guess is that a teammate leaked the false story. Puig has a history of not getting along with people, which is one reason why I don't want to see him in a Sox uniform.

QUOTE (captain54 @ Aug 3, 2016 -> 01:34 PM) Consider the restrictions handed down from the big man upstairs… Consider Hahn being hamstrung, by his moves needing to cleared by Kenny Williams… Its like Rick Hahn is trying to be a professional GM of a big market MLB franchise. with an old 2001 Gateway computer with AOL dialup internet and an old Blackberry from 2002... Bottom line, if you really think about it.. JR is doing his job VERY well… keeping the franchise financially afloat..keeping the investors happy.. all while carrying bottom of the barrel attendance numbers and TV ratings.. and all while putting a mediocre product on the field…. I agree that there's a good chance that it's JR that doesn't want to do a full or partial rebuild going into next season. I may be proven wrong, but that's where I'd put my money.

Good thing it's not April.