Black_Jack29

If Hahn really wants some of the Red Sox players, he's going to have to wait until this winter.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Jul 31, 2016 -> 04:48 PM) Agree. As I said yesterday, I am afraid Hahn is still going for it in 2016. Not sure Melky's value will ever be higher than today and they just added a 4th outfielder who can be slotted in for the rest of the season. Melky is the only .800 OPS hitter on the Sox roster. If you deal him, you need to replace that production somehow... either via another trade or via shelling out way too much money for Reddick, Cespedes, or Rasmus this winter. I don't see the Sox being major players in free agency this winter. What would be the expected return on Melky? Maybe a Top 50 prospect and a decent bullpen arm? If so, I'd wait until next year to deal him.

QUOTE (gosoxtim8 @ Jul 31, 2016 -> 02:29 PM) i would think quintana would gave us moncada not sale For either Sale or Q, I'd want both Moncada and Jackie Bradley. And I doubt the Red Sox want to part with the latter while they're trying to get into the playoffs.

QUOTE (daggins @ Jul 31, 2016 -> 01:43 PM) Jayson Stark - Based on what i've heard, "less than 5% chance" Sale is moved. "More curious than serious". That's not surprising. Hahn might have more takers this winter. I hope that the Sox are able to at least move Shields and Robertson for something of value.

If the Sox are going to do a full tear-down, then yes. If not, I'd wait until next year to deal Melky. Especially with the way that Abreu's slugging percentage has plummeted.

QUOTE (Two-Gun Pete @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 11:54 PM) You're right no one "knows" his value. We can only estimate it. And yes, I've noted that his surplus value will only go down some ~$14M in a year. I've shown my work, & it looks like he's worth so ~$85.8M in surplus value due to his contract, PLUS ~18 or so WAR. if you disagree, that's fine, but show your work. And if there are other suitors, do the math, & come up with a deal that is both fair value, and will actually happen. Id be all for a trade, IF fair value can be attained. The problem with doing a mathematical analysis on Sale's value is that it's done in a bubble and neglects the numerous variables that affect it. These include the state of the Sox's farm system, the contract status of the players on the 25-man roster, the Sox's financial situation, the upcoming free agent market, the circumstances that affect the other 31 teams (roster, contracts, farm system, financial situation, where they are in the standings, etc.), the ramifications of Sale's mechanics on his long-term arm health, Sale's inability to control his emotions and propensity to embarrass his front office, and numerous other factors that are impossible to quantify. So I'm not going to waste my time. You very well may be right that "fair value" cannot be obtained for Sale at this point, but that doesn't really matter. What matters is that the Sox cannot compete with their current roster and farm system, and that trading Sale or Q is the only realistic way to remedy the situation. It would be in the organization's best interest for this to happen sooner (2016-2017) than later (2019). A Sale-less Sox that can regularly score runs is better than a sub-.500 Sox with an unhappy Sale on the roster. One thing that we can agree on is that if Hahn trades Sale to fill the numerous gaping position-player holes on the roster, he's going to have to try to maximize his return.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 11:52 PM) Unfortunately, Hahn's gona need to rob Peter to pay Paul. Sale may be the guy to go because he can bring back the monster haul. That's if they want to try that route instead of a complete rebuild. Personally, I'd go the complete rebuild route. If ya don't get the deals you want by Monday, hold onto them. Lay the groundwork, like Rosenthal mentioned today. This is the time for that. I believe Rabbit said we talked about trading for Frazier last year around this time. Couldn't make it happen by the deadline so he got the groundwork done. This is my opinion, if they only trade one, it's Sale because of the haul you can get back. I agree. Also agreed about going the complete rebuild route, but I don't see it happening.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 11:37 PM) Ok. So lay that plan out for us on how they attack this off-season in a crappy FA market with a bare farm system. Yep, and that's another factor that'll limit what the Sox can get for Sale. Any GM that does his homework knows that the Sox will need to trade for young position player talent sooner rather than later. I think that Hahn can hold out for another 12 months if he isn't enamored with the current offers (as circumstances change, new opportunities can develop), but I really can't see both Sale and Q on the roster after next year's trade deadline if the Sox aren't competitors at that point. Way too many holes to fill.

QUOTE (Two-Gun Pete @ Jul 31, 2016 -> 12:08 AM) And getting exactly Jack and Sh*+ for vets that have been sold off has contributed to this decade of sucktitude. The Sox are in the position they're in because they haven't been able to draft/develop offensive talent, not because Kenny and Hahn have been getting swindled in trades.

QUOTE (Two-Gun Pete @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 11:54 PM) And again, come up with a realistic trade that'll get it done. Boston doesn't "need" to add a Sale-like player to compete; if the season ended today, they'd already be in the postseason. Who said that Boston was the only trading partner available? Even teams that are currently on the outside looking in might be willing to deal for Sale. Sale is under team control through 2019. His value will not be that much lower a year from now. You have no idea what Sale is worth. The only people who know that are Rick Hahn and the GM that accepts Hahn's offer. In other words, both the market and the fit set Sale's value, not fans on message boards. Some teams, such as the Red Sox, probably aren't in a position to give Hahn what he'd want for Sale. On the other hand, there may be a .500 team out there who desperately needs an ace and also has a couple of ML-ready Top 30 prospects that Hahn really likes. And maybe that team also has a #3 starter that Hahn and Coop both like. And perhaps Hahn can convince this GM to throw in a good veteran defensive catcher as well. If Hahn pulls the trigger on such a deal, he'll probably have a better team in 2018 than what he'll have with Sale and a bunch of mediocre, one-year-rental position players.

QUOTE (Two-Gun Pete @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 10:12 PM) To be honest, while I share your angst in this, the ineptitude of his team mates, his manager, & the front office have little to do with what he is actually worth in trade. Trading just to trade is one way this organization has slid into the crapper. See: Peavey, Swisher, & other vets sold for nothing as examples of this. No, the idea is to trade Sale for a couple of really good, young ML-ready position players. The Sox are currently loaded with solid starting pitching and have a dearth of offensive power. You can't win games when you struggle to score two runs. Sale is unique in that he's not only one of the top 5 pitchers in the league, but he's also under a ridiculously team-friendly contract for the next few years. The market for starting pitching is also crazy right now. A player like Sale could net a sh*tload of talent in return and set the Sox up to compete again in a year or two. So, no, he's not too valuable to trade... for the right price. And if Hahn can't get that price right now, I'm totally cool with him waiting until the winter meetings to shop Sale again. And if that doesn't work out, he can wait until next year's trade deadline. If the Sox can't get their act together and compete for a wild card, it'll become a question of when, rather than if, the Sox should trade Sale.

QUOTE (Two-Gun Pete @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 09:46 PM) I truly can't see Sale getting traded. When you actually add up his value, I can't see any team coming close to giving up enough. Consider: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-begin...ng-trade-value/ Trade value is, more or less: 1. Current value, 2. +/- Surplus value, 3. +/- Rarity, 4. +/- The intellect or stupidity of the selling team. For Chris Sale, let's do a little back of the envelope arithmetic: 1. Current value ~5.25 average fWAR * 3.5 years = 18.4 fWAR 2. Surplus value is the difference between his contract & his production of fWAR. He's owed ~$42M thru 2019. Assuming each WAR costs $7M in free agency, he might 'cost' $128.8M to sign; Surplus value is thus: $128.8 - $42 = $86.8M. 3. There aren't as many 5 WAR players available in trade, much less a young lefty ace. In trade, such a player might be worth a handful of WAR as a 'kicker.' 4. This front office is incredibly stupid, so subtract perhaps 5 fWAR from Sale's trade value. (This is how Avi Garcia got here, & how Swisher was sold for a box of turds. ) All told, there is no logical way Sale gets traded. Or, put another way, if he IS traded in the next 2 seasons, it will mean that KW & Rick sold The Hope Diamond for the cost of cubic zirconium. Interesting analysis, but it fails to account for the fact that the Sox can't score enough runs to play .500 ball and don't have enough offensive talent in their minor league system to remedy this.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jul 30, 2016 -> 12:40 PM) This team is jack with Sale though. What would you suggest they do? Hold pat? I don't see how gradual improvements over the next three years will be enough when Chris will be exiting via free agency in 2020. Starting over is really our only option. The problem isn't losing Sale, it's that there isn't enough offensive talent to score runs. The Sox could still have a decent rotation next season if they get a #3 or #4 starter as part of a deal for Sale. If they get a solid, ML-ready CF and an almost-ready stud prospect like Moncada as the centerpieces of that deal, they'll probably be in a better position to contend in 2017/2018 than they have been for the past two seasons. On the other hand, they're going to be mired near the .500 mark again if they keep Sale and try to get by with one-year rentals of Austin Jackson and Dioner Navarro types through free agency.

I'm so sorry.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jul 29, 2016 -> 10:34 AM) Depends on what they want to do. Rebuilding? Lawrie moves to third, Sanchez and Saladino at second. Can live with that in a rebuild. Contending? No way. I agree. Lawrie is a decent get-me-by at 3B for a rebuilding team, but doesn't hit with enough power to play 3B for a contender.

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jul 29, 2016 -> 10:09 AM) Frazier seems replaceable. I'd rather take a modest return for him now, sacrifice his value this year & next. Given what the Sox had between Crede and Frazier, and what they currently have in the minors, I disagree.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jul 28, 2016 -> 10:39 AM) Gonzalez has one more year of control left. Gah, my bad.

I'm very sorry to hear about this, Jeremy. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 28, 2016 -> 08:39 AM) Without Frazier this team would be completely devoid of power. You think the offense is bad now ? Yikes ! Agreed. I think it's more likely that the Sox sign Frazier to a contract extension than trade him. Especially with Jose not slugging like he was a couple of years ago.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jul 28, 2016 -> 08:02 AM) If they keep Sale and Quintana, they won't rebuild and will try to compete next year. You have to try if you keep them. I don't see the Sox trading both Sale and Quintana. Gonzalez is gone next year and they'd probably prefer to dump Shields if they can. If all four of those guys are gone, they have Rodon, an unproven Fulmer, and three holes to fill. If think it's more likely that Hahn deals Sale for a couple of really good young ML-ready players and a veteran #3 or #4 starter sometime in the next 12 months.

QUOTE (daggins @ Jul 24, 2016 -> 11:14 AM) Shields says that Sale is more of a leader than he expected. No idea what that means. It sounds to me like Sale has a reputation for being selfish.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jul 24, 2016 -> 10:31 AM) I agree to the point of sometime in the next 5 months, not 8 days necessarily. I was originally thinking that the day to trade him would've been a year from now. So if Hahn wants to wait until the winter meetings, that's fine with me. QUOTE (ptatc @ Jul 24, 2016 -> 10:34 AM) If that's how he reacted to the guy who is thinking about trading him, imagine how he would react to the pisters on this board who WANT to trade him. Good thing I'm incognito!

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 24, 2016 -> 10:26 AM) Peggy Kusinski reporting Sale won't be disciplined. Is mad about trade speculation. Sorry can't link on Twitter right now Mental midget. Trade him.

What a mess. At least this happened right before the trade deadline. That's the only silver lining that I can find.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jul 24, 2016 -> 10:13 AM) I'd bet anything the comfort of the uniform had nothing to do with him tearing them up. It was a power play, being mad about the rumors of the team being torn apart in the next 8-9 days. In his warped mind, he probably thought he was being a leader and standing up for his teammates. Listening to Rozner this morning, I agree with him...this does nothing to his trade value one way or the other. Nothing has changed there. We'll see. 197 hours until the deadline. Bingo