turnin' two

Kind of makes you think looking at just one season is a fool's errand eh?

Moncada was the 18th best hitter in baseball last year at not swinging at balls out of the strike zone. Those in front of him were: Votto, McCutch, Nimmo, Betts, Bregman, C Hernandez, Hicks, Carpenter, Mauer, Gardner, Trout, Ramirez,Dozier, Grandal, Hoskins, Markakis and Pham. That is pretty good company. For the most part, those guys are the best hitters in baseball. He was 21st in swing % overall. Those are good traits. Traits that should lead to success. The only legit knock you could make against his plate discipline is that he takes too many strikes. He took about 34% of the strikes thrown to him this past season, but even there he swung more than Goldschmidt, Haniger, Bregman, Carpenter, Trout etc... I'd much rather have a guy like Moncada as a foundation for a better player than a guy that just hacks away at everything. Avi Garcia, for example swung at 44% of the pitches out of the strike zone. Not only are you less likely to hit pitches out of the zone, but unless you are Vlad Guerrero, less likely to hit them hard. Maybe he should be more aggressive protecting the plate with 2 strikes, but his overall approach is better than any rookies the Sox have had since probably Magglio.

That seems to make perfect sense.

The one delivery that has shown to have a very degree of TJ is the " inverted W" (I still don't understand why it just isn't an "M"), I believe that still holds true, and is much of what this article discusses. That article, though is from 2010. Here is an article that is 5 years more recent. https://www.fangraphs.com/community/velocity-and-the-likelihood-of-tommy-john-surgery/

Yeah, expecting the umpires to do their jobs well shouldn't be part of the equation. But blaming the hitter for knowing the K-zone is ridiculous. I'm not looking at a chart or anything, but I seem to remember that many of those calls weren't even very close. They were just all around terrible calls.

If velocity is the biggest cause of TJ, and you have a pitcher that throws as hard as any other starter in baseball, if you don't expect TJ to happen at some point, it is blind hoping. Sale is a different story. Experts (the fake kind) thought he was a high risk because of his delivery. Which has a minimal correlation in most cases. Sale, notably, has high velocity, but doesn't live by throwing 97-99 all the time.

I hate the poor approach of not swinging at pitches out of the strike zone.

The highest correlation to a pitcher needing TJ is high velocity. If you want a pitcher with an elite fastball, TJ is part of the risk equation.

Yes, and I believe that was in August last time I saw it.

Huh? I haven't been here long, but this is the most random nonsensical thing I have seen. And I lived through the Peavy44 era.

It is amusing you thought I was being hostile. I guess when I put "grammar gremlin" in my initial post you took that as a sign of seriousness. Sorry I wasn't clearer about that.

Well, I don't feel corrected. You should have said you feel perfectly. Fun times though mate. Your check is in the mail. Though I'd bet you're going to be waiting a while. I think I should be billing you as a English tutor, ah well, charity cases are often done pro bono, so this one is on me.

No, I wanted to quote the one where you said you were perfect. Immediately after you made a 2nd grade mistake.

You're entitled to think that. But your opinion could be debated. GRAMMAR GREMLIN!!!!!!

Yeah, I said it was optimistic. I intended it to be about a year from now, so year end.

What is the point in being competitive? You play to win. #2. But I think the entire point of this rebuild was to accomplish both.

Kemp put up an .818 OPS last year as well. Now granted he doesn't walk, really at all and has really become a liability on defense, but still he has some value as well. Especially considering he had that .818 OPS in Dodger Stadium for half his games, and he will not be in a very hitter friendly environment. I don't think he will be useless for the Dodgers next year either. But like most others here, I don't think it was a great trade, because, while the Reds will be better, they have some tough teams in that division. And Downs was a top 10 prospect for them, and Gray was trending in the right direction.

Which Sox prospects do you expect to be in the top 100 next year? And where do you see them ranked? Top 10-20 Range: I expect Kopech, Cease and Robert to all be in this category. Kopech may fall a little due to injury, but it shouldn't change his projection much at all. I think Cease has a year that really answers all the questions (seriously are there still questions????) and he propels himself into the top 10 range. I think it will be similar with Robert. He will finally be completely healthy (knock on wood), and he will put all his athleticism and skills together and have a monster year. 30-40 Range I think here the Sox will place Madrigal. I think he continues to display the skills we all know he has, getting tons of hits, swiping some bags, limiting his K's, and playing great defense. His lack of power will limit how high he can climb on a list like this, but not how effective he can be on the field. I also think Dunning will be in this range. He will continue to do what he has always done, get outs. Except this time at a higher level. 40-50 Range I would guess this is where the new guy fits. Overall number 3, come on down. Who knows. 50-60 Wild Card!!!! Miker Adolfo. Miker will come back strong, and bash baseballs all over the Southern League. Scouts will not be able to ignore what he has become and he will jump into the middle of the top 100. Blake Rutherford. Blake continues to get hits and rack up doubles. I wouldn't expect him to hit a bunch of homers in Birmingham, but he will get his XBH, and show all the skills that have put him in the top 100 the prior years. The lack of HR, prevents him from moving higher, but I think that changes a year from now. 70-80 Collins finds his way back into the top 100. His profile still isn't perfect, but he has stuck at C, reached base nearly 40% of the time, and hit more bombs. He finds the dimensions at Charlotte especially to his liking. 90-100 I think Basabe finds his way into the top 100. Another strong season showing speed and power. He shows offensive promise and the tools to stick in CF. The hit too still is shaky at times, but the positives are too much to ignore. Alec Hansen. Hansen is going to bounce back. He will dominate the Southern League and get bumped up to Charlotte. Despite his massive performance, his 2018 will still haunt scouts so he won't get as high as he deserves. Wild Card!!!!!! I think Amado Nunez will sneak into the top 100 as he continues to rake in full season ball. Those are my guesses. Am I being optimistic? Sure. What's the harm in that. They are prospects, and dang if I'm not going to be overly excited about them. Did I miss anyone? You think Gonzalez, Walker, Tyler Johnson, or Burger make it? Luis Curbelo? Medeiros? What are your guesses? Did I mis-place anyone? (For the record, I think Gonzalez will be just outside as his age holds him back, Johnson will be on the outside because he is a reliever, and I am not sure what to make of Walker and Burger. Mederios, I think, will play well, but not make the list.)

Is draft picks the only way to judge a GM? Seems like a silly criteria. The 2005 team was a perfect blueprint. Homegrown talent, international signings, trades and free agents. Players from each category were productive on that team. That is exactly what is needed.

This seems to make a whole heck of a lot of sense.

Right, it was referencing Buehler and saying that the Sox would never take a guy that was a TJ risk, and I was saying that any player with elite velocity has increased risk for TJ.

I wasn't referring to Buehler in that post at all.

Am I incorrect in remembering that Buehler was the more prized prospect heading into the draft season, and Fulmer passed him on the strength of that one season? Am I also incorrect in remembering that while maybe Buehler did have injury concerns, weren't there serious -- he is a reliever -- concerns with Fulmer? I guess it doesn't matter in a lot of ways. It is a blown pick and looking at the what-could-have-beens is only maddening.

This applies to anyone with elite velocity.

Yeah, no kidding there. I still cannot get over the Sox taking his teammate over him in the draft. Huge indictment of the scouting.