turnin' two

Yeah. The point is you will probably never make a jump that big. That is why there needs to be incremental improvements. There were 2 teams that made the playoffs this year that won fewer than 70 games in 2016, and another that won 90 last season and missed. And while maybe you can't make up 40 games in a year, there is ample evidence to show you can make up 20-25 games. Cleveland won 91 games last year. They stand poised to lose several important free agents. Rumors they are looking to trade one of their top starting pitchers. Who is to say that 85-87 wins won't win the Central next year? This offseason represents something of a unique opportunity. There are a few elite talents available on the FA market or through trade. The Sox have an opportunity not afforded to many rebuilding clubs. They can make a huge jump in talent without waiting for it to develop.

Well, that is just wrong. Maybe it isn't likely, but with Cleveland losing several key free agents and possibly moving a starter, the division isn't unreachable. If the Sox added Harper, Moustakas, a decent starter and a pen piece or two (and there are many available), they could certainly be competitive. Especially if some of the young guys develop or, gasp, take a leap forward. Again, maybe it isn't the most likely thing, but to say there is nothing they can do is overly dramatic for the sake of being overly dramatic.

Honestly not sure how they work out the logistics in Birmingham for playing time. I wouldn't be surprised if either of Adolfo or Robert start at WS, and Basabe starts at Birmingham and they are simultaneously promoted. Certainly the DH will be used for an extra OFer in Birmingham, and there could be some rotating in CF as well between Gonzalez/Robert/Basabe and maybe even Rutherford. Call and Booker will factor in as well, though they will likely be in Charlotte.

His defense hasn't had any effect on my thinking. You aren't paying for his defense. You are paying for the bat. You are paying for the power and the on base skills. You are paying for a change in philosophy. You are paying for a splash. You are paying for dingers. You are paying for the marketing. And to me, that is fine.

Still better on the Sox side than the Yankee side. Robertson was good for them, but the other two weren't or haven't been, and they paid at least market value to Robertson.

First ballot. No doubt about it. One of the best 3 or 4 3B ever.

FIFY.

Well, I am much happier with the title.

Way to go Frank.

Gee, thanks mister. I totally didn't understand that super complex scenario. That still isn't remotely my point. Yeah. He has since had surgery. But how is leaking that another team backed out of a deal to acquire him because of health concerns going to help his trade value?

The technical logistics are hardly the point.

Well obviously, but still it can't be good for the perception that he failed another team's (especially since it wasn't the O's) physical and that scuttled a trade. I don't see how that report could help his trade value.

I don't think the Reds would. I think Senzel is probably lower risk than Cease, and both have All Star upside. I think you'd have to sweeten the deal to get the Reds to bite.

I am all for front loading the deal to add some financial heft, but this seems batty. Harper is great, and I'd love the Sox to sign him, but he isn't worth 50+ per season. If he stays for the first 3 or 6 years, it would be 3/160 or 6/315?????? That is insane. It isn't worth it to the team. You don't have to beat his suspected market value by 15 million per season. In this scenario he would opt out after 3 or 6. I would say likely after year 3, because he would still be 29 and would likely be able to command another 8-10 year deal, and if he couldn't command that deal, boy do you not want him at over 50 million for the next 3 seasons. The front loading is tricky with the opt outs (though remember the opt outs add value to the deal as well. If they were doing something like this they would need to make years 1&2 attractive, 3 probably below average, then offer the opt out, then make 4&5 really attractive, with 6 below average. Then make years 7-10 around AAV of the deal. By doing that the Sox get some value out of years 3&6, and it should be looked at as if it were 2 separate 3 year contracts, and then a 4 year contract. Harper gets 2 front loaded deals, and straight AAV on the back end. So, if it is a 10/350 deal, something like 45/40/20 __OPT OUT__45/45/15__ OPT OUT__ 40/40/30/30. That way Harper gets front loaded deals, therefore added value. He still gets his opt outs, but the Sox get some protection. They loading themselves up with risk averaging 50 million at all. The AAV of the first 3 years is 35 million, though compared to a deal that is 35 across the board, it would add value, even more so compared to a backloaded or deferred deal. The second 3 years averages the same. The final 4 average to the same. So the AAV would be 35. But again, with the opt outs, you need to look at this as 3 separate contracts, with each being front loaded. Would he opt out after 3, well, still maybe. He would be 29, and could likely surpass 6/210 on a deal at that point. I think, if you front load it more than that, you need to push the opt outs back.

I don't see why the Reds would do that. He played more 2B than 3B in AAA this season, and you would think he would easily shift to a corner OF spot. It isn't like he is completely blocked.

Really? I don't see how it would be beneficial to say another team backed out of a trade because of health concerns that have only been magnified with his needing surgery.

Realistically who are the contenders for these guys? For Harper: Philly, STL, ATL, SF, Washington and the Sox. Is there anyone else? That seems to put our odds at 1/5. With the biggest factor being who will pay the most. Philly can obviously spend, no one quite knows where SF will go, the Braves and the Cards could, but the Sox seem to have more flexibility. Washington has already offered a ton of money, but who knows how high they will go, and their MO is to backload and defer money, where the Sox shouldn't have the restriction. I also don't know how high the Nats will go, considering they have other needs and at least 3 good OFers and 2 that could be great. Now granted there may be other teams involved on the fringe right now, but that hardly seems like a >1% chance. Machado: Philly, NYY, STL, and the Sox? I am having a hard time finding other teams that are a good fit for Manny, or even a stretch fit. Maybe the Pardes are a wild card team? I'm sure Boras will have a mystery team for Harper, as he always does, but there aren't a bunch of teams the Sox need to beat out here, and many of them don't offer situations a ton better than the Sox. Am I missing anything? I maybe, I feel like there is something obvious but by all reports the Sox don't need to worry about Boston, the Dodgers, Angels, Tigers or Cubs as teams that normally spend big in free agency.

This seems a bit overly dramatic to me. There is cause for concern with Collins, but there is also cause to believe he can be an impactful player. Guys with that discipline and power don't grow on trees. He may benefit from better umpires (don't tell Moncada...) and he may also benefit from time. He will almost certainly also benefit from playing half his games in Charlotte instead of Birmingham. Collins showed what he can be at the high end for a stretch last season, if he can tap into that with more regularity, he could really be a special player.

Yeah, I wasn't advocating for it, just saying it is interesting. And certainly not unless they get one of the big fish. Even still the 2 years of control is still concerning.

Yeah they were, and Basabe was repeating and older. Not trying to drag him down, and as I said, I am happy the Sox have both. I was just trying to show why some people may prefer Rutherford. Especially because the one tool that is most questionable for Basabe is the one that could legitimately destroy him as a prospect. A fact, of which Sox fans should be well aware. We have had no shortage of prospects that have more speed, power and arm than they knew what to do with, that we never saw in a Sox uniform.

Not sure Paxton makes complete sense, but for that package, while losing Dunning would really hurt, and Collins as well, I would have to consider that move. It doesn't seem unreasonable at all.

Maybe your problem is you expect him to be an MVP. He doesn't need to be. Just a really good hitter. That's what he is, and has always been.

Yeah, their situations are the same.

Ummm, no. That is quite literally his job.

40 points higher career BA at this point. Higher SLG as well. Strikes out far fewer times. It isn't a huge stretch. Glad to have both.