turnin' two

I don't think you got my point, maybe I didn't make it well. I don't know why you are quoting "one of your big 3 contracts", I never said or implied that in anyway. Though your meaning is certainly true. Projecting the payroll to top out around 130-140 seems reasonable to me. One 35-ish and 2 25-ish deals. I really meant that I would be ok with pursuing Corbin as long as that doesn't preclude Harper/Machado. I should have been clearer about that position. I still don't love Corbin. But this team needs at least 1 good starter at this point. He is the best of the bunch this year, even if there are some concerns (the guys like Keuchel, Eovaldi and Happ all have concerns, and will likely cost a similar amount - they'll all command at least 15/ season I'd have to guess). If the FO thinks there is more to his year this season that a walk year bump, well, his results are hard to argue with, it seems like his slider became much more of a swing and miss pitch. That development may be sustainable. His last 2 seasons are nearly 400 innings of 3.58 ERA, a 4/1 K/BB and more than a K/IP. Looking to next year, there are some guys that are attractive, though with their own concerns. Bumgarner (injuries, declining stuff), Sale( fading down the stretch and some injury concerns this year) Cole (last season was an anomaly for him as well) and Porcello (meh). No doubt at least Sale and Bum are in a different class of pitcher than Corbin. But, I have to believe there is a at least a decent chance Sale stays in Boston and Bum stays in SF. Is hoping for one of those guys worth passing on Corbin, well, I'm not sure. All I was saying is that I am starting to warm up to the idea. There is the trade market as well. Depending on cost, as I advocated for earlier, I would prefer Greinke. If you could get him cheap prospect wise (Steele Walker and Spencer Adams?) and get the Dbacks to pick up about 45 million or so on his contract. Yeah he is a bit older, but he puts up quality lines every season. Paxton would be great, but there are some major durability concerns there, and prospect cost. Kluber, sure. But he will cost you in prospects, at this point, I'd rather spend in cash currency than prospect currency. Maybe with those considerations, Corbin may be the best alternative. He wouldn't be my first target, but I am starting to understand the pursuit. And they certainly wouldn't be in the position they were in in 2016. Because they would have Kopech coming back in 20, Cease and Dunning seem imminent for 2020 (not to mention some more wild card guys like Hansen, Mederios, Lambert, Flores etc who could be ready to go beyond AAA by 2020), and a boatload of offensive prospects with which to bolster the lineup or trade for what you need. Those situations are not analogous at all.

Seems like you don't realize a whole lot of things.

Corbin isn't my favorite target for a few reasons, injury history, performance history, outlying walk year. Though with that said, he is the best option on the free agent market, I am warming up to the idea, especially if it doesn't impede other pursuits.

The noise of the crowd is nearly as great.

What a bum! Any sane front office would non tender him! Seriously though, congrats to Jose. Great hitter and seems like a class dude all the way around. A perfect mentor for the kids on this team.

The only question I have about this scenario is do they (the Sox) announce the trade for Trout the same day or wait to the next?

Yeah. They do. They may not know Adolfo or Basabe, but they know Eloy.

Completely agree. There needs to be some benefit for the team. If you are doing that, make the first 3 years 50 and the second 2 years 15. That way the team gets some value out of it. Then after the opt out, front load it again to make it more attractive.

Yeah, but if you saw the chat, they said the Sox are a wild card and they are a reasonable choice on any of the free agents.

That is more of an indictment on the trib.

Seems like that is far from an established fact. Harper is the better hitter, Manny the better defender (at 3B, at SS... eh not really anything special). Manny had his best ever OPS this season, his first over .900. Harper has had 2 over 1.000. Machado's career high in BB is 70 (twice!). Harper has walked over 100 times 3 times including a high of 130 this season. Power- wise, well they average about the same HRs/162 (32-31 in Harper's favor). Really the plate discipline is the biggest difference. That is something that I think could have tremendous value to the White Sox. Certainly something the lack currently. I'm thrilled with either, but I would prefer Harper.

So, the Sox have, according to Cot's, including arbitration projections, 54,425 allocated to next season's payroll. The Indians were smack in the middle of payroll last year (15th/30) at about 137 million. To get the Sox to the middle of the pack, well they have about 80 million dollars to work within. Now, who knows what their budget is, and where they want to be, but to say middle of the pack doesn't seem extreme to me either way. That is the target I am going to use, so basically, I am spending a lot of Jerry's money this offseason. 40 Million on Bryce. I'd give him the 11/330 deal that I mentioned in another thread with it front loaded a bit. That still gives you about 40 million to work with. With signing Harper, you could not tender the contract to Avi, saving you 8 Million there as well (even if they initially agree to a deal, can't they cut him before spring training for a nominal %?). 10 Million (each year for 2 years -- a little more $ than the MLBTR projection) to Mike Moustakas. Another LH bat, plays 3B, short enough term where he wouldn't block anyone, not that that is a pressing matter. 7/ season ( 6 years) for Kikuchi. Just using the MLBTR projection here. I have no idea (obviously) where this will end up. 10/ year 2 years for Cody Allen. ( a little more than the MLBTR Projection). 8 /year for 2 years for Kelvin Herrera ( an extra year from what MLBTR projects) That would give the Sox: Lineup: Rotation Bullpen Moncada (2B) Rodon Allen Harper (RF) Lopez Herrera Abreu (1B) Kikuchi Jones Moustakas (3B) Giolito Fry Eloy (LF) Covey(??) Burr Palka (DH) Frare Anderson (SS) Minaya Castillo/Narvaez (C) Engel (CF) Bench: Leury Sanchez Davidson/ Nicky This would put your payroll at about 121 million. This also give you the flexibility to play Moncada in CF and Sanchez at 2B. Your lineup would be very deep and dangerous. 7 guys capable of hitting at least 20 HRs, Good LH/RH balance. While, not perfect, this lineup, I think, could carry Engel. The rotation is a question for certain. Definitely the weakest part of the team, but I just don't see the answers in free agency. If you could get Greinke on the cheap, he'd be a great fit. Not sure who else would be available. Rumors are that Cleveland may be interested in trading Kluber, that would also be worth exploring. Though he would cost a ton in prospect capital, so he seems less likely. The bullpen, while again, not perfect, should be deep. There are 2- maybe 3 options for closer, though I prefer Jones in a set up role. While Herrera and Allen's best days are likely behind them, they are still effective and I wouldn't be surprised to see Allen back to his dominant ways. It would give you a formidable 7-8-9, also keeping in mind guys like Hamilton in AAA. I think you could do this without breaking the bank (spending a lot yes, but still below average in terms of total payroll). This would give you a solid, deep lineup, and a dangerous bullpen. You don't block any important prospects, buy a little time for development, and you get competitive. You may even be able to win the Central, especially if Cleveland is looking at trimming payroll as rumors suggest, heck, they are already weakened considerably just by the free agents they appear ready to lose. If the season didn't work out, you should be able to trade at least Herrera and Allen and get a decent return as well. I know it won't happen. Don't bother me with those trifles!

That would definitely be a sticking point with front loading it. You would maybe have to structure the deal something like 40-40-40-15-15 (so 5/150). After year 5 give the opt out. Then start to front load a bit more after that 35-35-35--30-22.5-22.5 (another 6/180 for a total of 11-330). That gives the player the front loading up front on the first 5 and second 5 of the deal, but gives the team some value in years 4/5 and 10/11. The numbers in years 4/5 have to be a bit lower to protect the team from being completely taken by the out clause. Would a guy like Harper or Machado opt in to that 2nd contract? Tough to say at this point, but a 6 year 180 deal would still be nothing to sneeze at. The team could also work in mutual options with escalators. So if the player opts out, the team can opt in boosting each year by 5 mil or some such. Without an opt out, I would be willing to keep that higher rate for a longer time. Something like 40-40-40-40-35-35-30-20-20-15-15 (The same 11/330. Then the payments toward the back of the contract would decline along with the likely contributions of the player). I haven't done the math, but I would guess either of these structures would offer more value in pocket than a straight 30/year.

One thing the Sox have going for them is the lack of payroll currently. They could front load a contract, offering something like 40 million in the early years of the deal. Most of these huge deals have money that is deferred, which, devalues the money, a dollar in your pocket is more valuable today, than if it got there a year from now. Front loading would have the opposite effect, where the 40 million in year one, would essentially be more valuable than 50 million or so in year 10. That is a way, where if 2 teams are offering 350 million in total, the Sox, not having any significant payroll obligations right now, could differentiate themselves by front loading the deal, offering the same or a similar amount in total, but more in value.

we know. You clearly back out of your own bets.

Yeah, those aren't good sources.

Agree to disagree indeed. I would say that just because you can afford something, doesn't necessarily make it a good idea. That 15 Mil could be spent in far more productive ways than on a decent OFer that had a great season 4 years ago (not to mention this is the area in which your farm system has the most depth). Spend that money on guys like Herrera and Allen that the team could then trade mid-season. Or spend it on Harper or Machado. Keep it in your pocket for Arenado, Goldschmidt, Sale or Cole. Spending just because you can is never a good idea.

That still doesn't mean he is a good fit. He is over 30, often injured, had a terrible 2nd half, has played in an extreme hitters park and will likely command a deal somewhere around 3/45-4/60. And as you pointed out, will likely have to shift off CF in the not too distant future. Hopefully a bat like his will not be able to play as a corner OF for the Sox, if it does, well, this rebuild is in trouble if the team can't develop 2 corner OFers.

The Yankees colors are Navy and White. Not Black.

I don't get the Pollock love. He will be 31, has played in an extreme hitters park, and has numbers that are declining. His last 2 seasons he has a .261/.323/.477 for an .801 OPS. He has 54 2B, 11 3B, 35 HR 114 RBI and 33 SB. Just for reference, Avi Garcia has .292/.339/.478 for a .818 OPS with 38-7-37-129-8. There is a difference of 20 plate appearances between them. Different players for certain, and Pollock can play a respectable CF. But one guy everyone wants to non tender, the other, the older by 3 years, people want to give 15 million per season. One guy has been derided for being injured, the other deserves a giant FA contract apparently. I don't see how people can want to DFA Avi over 8 mil and sign Pollock to well, a heck of a lot more than that. Along with a multi year commitment. Anyways, Harper and Pollock don't belong in the same frame of mind, let alone sentence.

This is complete BS. There isn't a front office in baseball that would non tender him. You talked out of your ass, got called on it, and chickened out.

Whatever presentation the Sox made or didn't make didn't matter. Seems like he was signing on the west coast, and not for 300k. The situations are not similar. The result very may well be, but different situations.

Ok, how about this. Gosh! I sure can't wait for the Sox to add Gregor Blanco, Jordy Mercer and Chris TIllman! Gee why would people want to talk about the best players on the market.

Uhhhhh. Yeah. The rest of what is discussed is so relevant to improving our society and lives. Not at all a waste of bandwidth. Hell bandwidth is just another word for wasting time. Edit: 2K beat me to it. Haha.

So you can't be rational about it. Ok. Got it.