turnin' two

So much of what I have seen out of Machado tells me, that if I had 300 million to spend, Harper looks like the better option.

Yet you know there are 15 teams with better farm systems. How do you know that I wonder.

Yeah. His year this year was... well... yesh.

Now there is a competition. Cano? Heyward? Pujols? Davis? Cabrera? Darvish? Ellsbury?

Give me Harper. I have always just thought he was the superior player, the better hitter at least. Even in a great year (his best) for Machado and a bad year for Harper there was only a .16 advantage to Manny in OPS. Harper's best has been significantly better than Machado's and Machado's worst has been worse than Harper's. Yeah, Manny gives the Sox something they need in terms of a 3B, but Harper gives them a dangerous LH bat. He also gives them a guy gets on base with hits and walks. And not that this plays really a role at all, but boy I haven't liked what I have seen out of Machado in these playoffs. Not just that he has been dirty, which he certainly has in my opinion, but what makes it even worse is that his dirtiness has been very stupid, and has hurt his team, and could have hurt it worse. He hasn't looked like a guy that understands the situation. At least, he hasn't looked to me like a guy you want to rely upon.

Why not 110% of the time?

No. Not what I said at all. Really? Weren't we talking about something more specific? We were talking about Abreu. You said if they weren't going to extend him they should move him out to start "breaking in" other guys. You then said there were no other guys but it didn't matter. I said that's a bad plan. You said anyone not in the future is a bad plan. I said not having a plan is worse, in reference to your saying to basically get rid of Abreu for the sake of getting rid of him with no one to replace him or no real alternative at 1B. Certainly without any real prospect at 1B to take his place. Getting rid of guys for attrition's sake seems like a worse plan than having a very good, very professional, leader, and mentor on the team. If there was a legit prospect that he was blocking, then fine i see it. Otherwise there is no reason not to have Abreu on the team unless someone gives you a trade package that includes some really good prospects.

Hmm, well I believe not having a plan is even worse.

I knew you meant Abreu. You referred to other guys to break in. I think it is a poor strategy to get rid of productive players, even if they are aging, with no replacement plan at all. Evaluating Gillaspie for the sake of doing so as your everyday 1B is a terrible plan.

I am curious to whom you are referring. Delmonico? Palka? Davidson? There certainly aren't guys backed up in the high minors at 1B.

The difference between people on a message board and a guy that is employed to be an insider and expert shouldn't be that difficult to see.

Well, that is why I explicitly said that same thing and said that it would only make sense if the Sox paid a low prospect price and no more than 15 in any year of his contract.

Shoot. Really? I was just basing things on his performance over the last 15 years, and especially the last 2, in an extreme hitters park no less. I forgot that anyone over 34 was clinically dead (please forgive me, as I am also clinically dead).

Fair enough.

And when the Sox acquired James Shields, he was one year removed from a 3.21 ERA in 227 IP and a 1.18 WHIP. I "organized the data" as I did to not just use 1 year as a snap shot but to look at a little more. Gray has had 2 excellent years (not counting his rookie year because it was 12 starts, but that would qualify here as well) and 1 really good year in his career. The problem is that the most recent excellent year was in 2015. He had a good year in 2017, yes. He was very good and completely usable. The problem is here, the 2 years sandwiched around 2017 are both bad. If I had to bet which one was the real Sonny Gray at this point, I would guess a guy with a mid to high 4 ERA with much more confidence than I would a guy with a mid 3 ERA. He hasn't allowed a season with a BB/9 of fewer than 3 since 2015, including about 4 last season. The point about his splits are interesting. But if you are looking for a guy to be like Arrieta, a 29 year old with 1 year of control ( I know you addressed this as ledd than ideal, just thinking out loud) seems like an odd target. I am not against pursuing him, but I don't even think I'd offer Smith. Castillo, sure, maybe just flip problems, but I don't think I would give up anyone that could be a contributor in any sense because of the risk.

Oh. I have no doubt of that. I just think it will be a vast overpay.

In his last 3 years Gray has an ERA of 4.59 and a WHIP of 1.38 James Shields that last 2 years has an ERA of 4.78 and a WHIP of 1.36. Miguel Gonzalez the last 3 years has an ERA of 4.54 and a WHIP of 1.38 Not sure why the Sox would trade Fulmer or Smith for that. Why trade anything for that? He is a retread quality pitcher at this point. Somewhat related to this is the note that the DBacks seem to want to trade Greinke. He would be a much more interesting piece. Obviously there are a few conditions, like paying no more that 15 million on any year in his contract (so the Dbacks would be kicking in like 20M per season -- seems unlikely). I also wouldn't advocate trading all that much for him. Maybe something like Steele Walker, Spencer Adams and all the Ryan Cordell they can handle. I don't know. I didn't really think about it, just spit balling... Not difficult to see the Dbacks getting a better offer than that for him though.

Then it doesn't apply to Levine!

Avi had an OPS of near .900 in 2017. He hit a career high in HRs last year in 360 ABs and was plagued by injuries. He has shown that he can hit for high average and hit for power. He will be 28 years old. He isn't a complete disaster in the OF. What on Earth is the point of cutting him? Why not give him another chance to see if he can put it all together. Maybe 2017 was a fluke. Maybe last year was because he was hampered by injuries the entire season. He has shown playable skills at the plate each of the last 2 seasons with a .330 BA then 19 HRs in 360 ABs. It isn't like he is over the hill and due to decline. Nor is he ridiculously expensive. The players that are competing with him for playing time are similar in age and less accomplished. He has shown to be the best of the bunch. Palka could be a contributor with his power, but shouldn't be penciled into an OF spot. Cutting Avi because of an 8 million salary seems completely bonkers to me. He was nearly a 5 WAR player a year ago. What is the harm in seeing if he bounces back?

In a vacuum, yeah, of course. But what if it is Machado and 300 million more than it takes to keep Didi. What if that money could be used on Kershaw?

He is also 23. I doubt they are willing to write him off completely as a DH. And there is no way they'd be able to resign Didi, I guess, is that the point you are making about him being a FA? Manny makes sense for every team. He is that good of a player. But the Yanks need him less than just about every other team due to their very young and talented infield. But as I said, you can never count out the Yankees when it comes to a big ticket free agent.

I know you can never quite rule them out, but Machado certainly doesn't fill a need for them with Andujar, Didi and Torres. Obviously Machado is an upgrade there, but is he upgrade enough to warrant spending 350 million dollars? Especially when the team clearly needs starting pitching? Maybe they sign him then trade Didi... who knows.

Me too, a high ceiling HS SS type would fit well in the system.

Non tendering him doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense to me.

Yeah, I am failing to see any real difference there. The argument that a if a guy fails he could be a Tyler Saladino or Leury Garcia type doesn't really move the needle for me. Either way that is getting nothing out of a 1st round pick. They all have to be good to get value. If the 3rd overall pick ends up a utility IF or defensive substitution, you blew the pick. /////// And I think there is a joke there about Madrigal coming up short, but I won't be the guy to make it.