turnin' two

There are plenty of outliers. Buehrle picked off 100 guys in his career. That equates to about 6 per year. That seems like a stretch to say it is a major factor. His defense was great. He made on average 11 putouts per season. So he equated for 17 puts per year with his defense and pickoffs. I don't know. Seems like kind of a stretch to me. I guess I would like to see the article though.

Hmm. Doesn't seem right. Think of a good pitcher that didn't K a lot of guys and check his numbers. The next guy I though of was Tom Glavine. Routinely outperformed his FIP numbers. Next guy I thought of, Cole Hamels, same deal. Kyle Hendricks. Maybe jury is still out, but so far, just about every year. You could do the same on the other side. Without looking I bet guys like Kerry Wood and Javier Vazquez routinely under performed. It isn't exactly going out on a limb to say that Lopez's ERA is going to climb. If he were to maintain this ERA, well, it would be pretty elite. I'd be shocked. I would also be pretty darn surprised if he pitched to a 5 ERA the remainder of the season. Do you think he has pitched like a 5.5 ERA pitcher? I don't. He has looked much more in control of what is happening than Giolito or Fulmer.

Yeah, obviously. There are likely hundreds though. Those were just the first 2 I checked. I bet there are a lot of guys for which the numbers are close, but for the most part, high K's = good FIP (and xFIP). Good GO/AO = good FIP and xFIP. They are completely superfluous stats.

Just to play devil's advocate here, Kris Bryant and Alec Bohm are just about the same size.

Thank you, I agree and you said it better than my attempts.

Hmmm, but are they really that predictive? You could guess if a guy is going to out perform or under perform his FIP and xFIP just based in his K stats and be pretty darn good at it. Hmm, could there be outliers? Yes! Extreme ground ball pitchers. Mark Buehrle's numbers were pretty much always better than his FIP and xFIP. Jeff Samardizja routinely has better FIP and xFIP numbers. They aren't really that predictive, they are representative of the type of pitcher a guy is. A low FIP means high Ks or lots of ground balls. That is it. In some ways can that be predictive, sure. Would Lopez be a good fit for Camden right now? No. Would Dallas Keuchel, certainly moreso. People try to make FIP and xFIP more than they are all the time. They aren't magic. They don't tell the future. They are based off the past just like ERA. And they are normalized by using ERA.

Isn't that exactly what I said in my first post on the subject? To say, because of his xFIP, he is one of the two worst pitchers in starting pitchers in baseball is dramatic and incorrect. Does he have things on which he can improve? Yeah, of course, he is 24 and in his first full season. But the hyperbole is overkill. For the most part he has been effective on he mound and in spite of his flyball rate, his OPS against and exit velocity against are above average and may balance those other numbers out, because guys aren't hitting him hard.

Ok thank you, don't see how it really applies to what you (Chitown, not Tony) are saying about Lopez. Are you (again, Chitown not Tony) that Lopez has in some way benefited from having his home park at Guaranteed Rate? It isn't like it is AT&T or Safeco. If anything it seems to be pretty much in the middle of the distribution curve (and that is with a few years of a horrible offensive ballclub playing there).

I have no idea what this means.

Fair enough. I completely disagree, but fair enough.

Wasn't even looking at his WAR.

FIP and xFIP are basically the same stat as K/IP and BB/9. Those stats rely much too heavily on K numbers. They also rely heavily on BB numbers. Both things that I mentioned Lopez needs to work on, which also would indicate his FIP numbers would have been high. These can be useful, but using them as the primary evaluation tool for a guy seems heavily flawed to me. He has other stats that balance out those numbers. Such as OPS against, BAA, SLG against (.354). Will his ERA number rise a bit? Maybe, probably. The differential of 2 runs or so seems a bit extreme. But maybe this also indicates that his K/9 numbers are likely to rise a bit. And your last sentence should prove just how flawed it is to use FIP and xFIP as your only evaluation measures. If you have watched the games at all, this is clearly not a true statement.

Am I misreading this or are you saying this guy: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=lopezre01&year=2018&t=p has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year? He has a .640 OPS against. Opponents are hitting less than .200 against him. He has a WHIP of 1.12. Maybe he walks too many and strikes out too few but he is young and should continue to improve. Saying he has been one of the worst SP in baseball really makes no sense and I sure don't see a logical argument to support it.

I don't see this at all. Very different hitters. PK hit over .290 7 times. I have a hard time seeing Davidson doing that, even if I squint really hard. PK hit 30 doubles or more 8 times. PK averaged fewer than 100 K's per 162. They both have power yes. But if part of Davidson's season this year has been his great ability to draw walks. That was never a huge part of Konerko's game. He walked, but it wasn't really a defining characteristic. Davidson has been really good this year,certainly useful and he could continue to be a valuable part of this team moving forward if he keeps it up. They just seem like very different hitters to me with very different approaches.

So, basically, your theory is that if everyone sucks, they are in trouble? Got it.

His inability to throw strikes wouldn't be solved by a move to the bullpen.

His stuff has just crazy movement. If he could ever figure out where his pitches are going he could be dangerous. Too bad he hasn't shown much progress there.

I don't understand why Baez ever gets a strike to hit.

Madrigal seems like probably the safest pick in the draft. He will make it to the majors, likely do it quickly, be able to hit, run and field pretty well at whatever position he plays. His downside is that he may not be a game changing talent. I am not worried about his lack of power, even if it never develops. When you forecast the Sox lineup (clearly a dangerous task) but with guys like Moncada, Anderson, and Abreu at the MLB level and Eloy, Robert, Miker, Collins, Zavala, and all the others in the minors, the projectable lineup has enough power from all the other positions on the field for them to lack power in a guy that could be a 1 or 2 hitter with elite hitting and running ability. There will be ( usual caveat, if guys pan out) plus power at C,1B,2B, SS, LF, CF, RF. That can make up for a guy that doesn't have much power. I guess my point is that his height and even his lack of power shouldn't be huge reasons to not take him. I think I kind of agree with Lillian on the position factor though. If the Sox believe that the only position he can play is 2B, well, that isn't much of a fit and I don't think I would draft him unless they have him graded out significantly above the next guy. I get that you can trade him, but drafting a guy that in the best case scenario you trade seems like an odd strategy to me, if you have other available guys that are graded similarly. I am leaning towards hoping the Sox take a pitcher, but if they go hitter, while Madrigal may not be the most exciting prospect due to lack of power, guys like Jean Segura and Elvis Andrus may not be the most exciting guys on their teams (though they are really fun to watch), they really add a lot to their teams.

In my completely pointless opinion, I kind of hope the Sox go with Singer if he is available. I guess I don't know why but I am hoping they go pitcher. McClanahan is another guy I'd be completely ok with as his main issue seems to be control, and that is the issue I have the most faith in the Sox to fix. If they go position player, I guess Madrigal is the guy I'd prefer...

How about the Quintana trade? Obviously a lot can still happen, but it looks like Rick got the better of Theo there.

Bad logic: Someone that is highly paid is more competent or skilled than someone that is not as highly paid.

QUOTE (ChiSoxJon @ Apr 16, 2018 -> 02:06 PM) I'll personally assume these players are: Singer, McClanahan, Mize, Turang, Gorman, Rolison, Kowar, Kelenic, and De Sedas I don't have any inside info, and please correct me if I am wrong, but haven't the Sox been consistently connected with Swaggerty and Bohm as well?

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 26, 2018 -> 05:01 PM) Do you think that he would accept an offer like that? His best offer right now may be free drinks for a beer league softball team.

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:57 PM) Scott Boras would hang up the phone before Hahn could even finish that offer. No chance in hell a Boras client takes such a team friendly deal that will eventually screw him over when he starts entering his mid 30's. Maybe, which is why I said I was making up the numbers. Make them mutual options. Make them for more whatever. It was more the concept than the actual numbers.