turnin' two

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:12 PM) This is a super simplistic (maybe bad) way to look at it, but is he worth the expected value of whatever the average second round pick becomes? I’m guessing yes, he’ll probably be better. I think he still works as a pillow contract candidate as well. I know you can't tag him with the QO, but you can trade him midseason and probably get more value, and guys closer to the bigs than they will be able to get with the 2nd round pick. Last year at the break he had .270/25/54 with an OPS of .863. That gets you some talent back. Even significant dropoff from that gets you talent. I'd sign him for 1/15 with an option for year 2 at 18 and year 3 at 22(or something like that, haven't explored it too much). That way the team to whom you are trading him has some more control if they want it.

Gosh. Geesh. Lots of passion here. Here are some things on which I have an opinion. 1) Moustakas was well above average last year. His power output, XBH, and SLG put him in fairly elite company. He doesn't walk much. If he did he would be in a much higher echelon of player. Frazier had a higher OBP, but give me Moustakas' year every time. Maybe using one statistical category for complete player evaluation isn't the best idea. Ask Shin Soo Choo, or Jason Heyward. 2)Donaldson isn't declining. That's crazy. Citing other examples of people being crazy isn't proof. Donaldson is great, probably, no certainly the best offensive 3B in the AL. I may only put Arenado above him. With his age and cost, he wouldn't be ideal for the Sox situation (mostly due to age), but, he would still be a great signing. 3) I'd be completely cool with waiting a year to sign Arenado. I personally would prefer him even to Machado. 4)Moustakas isn't an ideal fit. He isn't the game changer that some of the others are, but he is a good player and a good fit. He could hit 4 this year, and 5,6 or 7 when the lineup fills out. 5)Signing Moose doesn't preclude the Sox from signing Machado. He would provide some nice insurance in case Manny signs elsewhere, in my opinion. A LH power bat is always welcome in my opinion. Moncada 2B Machado SS Abreu DH Eloy LF Moose 1B Avi RF Castillo C Anderson 3B Tilson/Engel/Leury CF That lineup could score some runs. And could obviously be moved around a bit, but anyway you'd slice it, that could be a tough lineup a year from now. There is probably a 6 and on, but that is more than enough input from the likes of me.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 03:36 AM) http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansa...e201140924.html This gives a lot of insight on how the Padres sold Hosmer and Boras...as it’s the exact same plan we have, with similar smaller market/revenue issues (media markets are different, obviously.) It’s the exact same strategy we laid out for Luis Robert. Hosmer being bilingual was another plus, with all the Latin American prospects in their system, just like the Sox have with the Cubans/Renteria/Santiago brothers. Hosmer’s decision, like most occupational choices, largely rested on the financials. The Padres guaranteed the most money and the most years. They offered an opt-out after five seasons, sweetening the deal. Yet Hosmer said he spent much of the offseason studying the Padres’ minor-league system and learning the tenets of their plan. He watched video of the prospects in their pipeline and discussed them with Padres general manager A.J. Preller and his agent, Scott Boras. Hosmer believed, in time, he could win in San Diego. “The very plan that San Diego has is one that he’s lived through,” said Boras, who earlier described the organization as a “volcano of hot talent lava.” Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansa...l#storylink=cpy With Royals on the sidelines, is anyone interested in Mike Moustakas? http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansa...e198736894.html That's all well and good, but mostly they offered the most money.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Feb 16, 2018 -> 04:41 PM) I respect all Sox players and really hope Big Game James is a solid performer this year, but when you see Fernando Tatis Jr listed as #9 on the MLBN prospect list that really stings. What?? This happened??? Why have I not heard about this atrocity!!!!

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 11, 2018 -> 07:05 AM) Their final offer was close to the Cubs offer for Darvish whereas Cubs aren't even talking to Arrieta. I don't get this. What did they know about him that would make them not want to sign him? Injury? Roids? Clubhouse Cancer?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 9, 2018 -> 01:38 PM) http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/5373/year/2006 Contreras wasn’t the same pitcher after the injury in late May that year. 5.40 ERA after the Break. Buehrle 6.44 after the ASB. Freddy Garcia at 4.12 would have been the best choice, probably. But his k-rate was already dipping precipitously. Jerks went through his own issues in the second half...so our lockdown bullpen disappeared as well (Politte/Cotts, etc.) That doesn't mean they couldn't have dominated in a 1 game wild card matchup. Granted, they were likely too worn out to be effective through out the entire playoffs, but Contreras had 2 starts in September where he went 8 IP, gave up 1 run and K's 8 in one and 9 in the other. Those starts probably win you a wild card game. Garcia threw 2 8 IP 1 hitters in September 2006, without allowing a run in either. He had another start of 7.1 and one of 6.1 IP allowing just a run in each. Those all seem like pretty good starts to me. In September he had an ERA of 2.49 with a BAA of .190, and OPS against .533 and a WHIP below 1. This seems like a guy you want on the mound in a Wild Card game to me. Buehrle didn't have a dominating start in Sept, but I wouldn't bet against him in a big spot. Garland had 2 starts of 6 IP with 1 run allowed. And another of 8.1 IP with 2 ER (3 R). Even Javy Vazquez had 4 starts of 10+ Ks in September (so maybe judging a guy primarily by K rate is a terrible idea), going at least 7 IP in all of them. But in 6 starts he allowed 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 runs. That is a little weird. I stand by my initial thought without even looking at anything. Any of Buehrle, Contreras or Garcia would have given the Sox a chance to win a WC game (and even if you couldn't line it up, neither Garland nor even Vazquez would automatically eliminate you -- though I really wouldn't have trusted Javy in a situation like that). But who knows. They were each capable of throwing a clunker also.

WSCR is the best justification there is for paying for SXM radio.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 9, 2018 -> 09:37 AM) What starting pitcher was going to win a wild card game at that point? I know they didn't have great years, but I certainly wouldn't count out Buehrle, Contreras or Garcia coming up big in a one game shot. I always thought that team had enough offense to just carry Anderson's lack of production in CF to have his glove in the lineup. I seem to remember thinking Makowiak cost the team 3-4 games in CF (not his fault, he shouldn't have been in that position).

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 10:05 AM) This “hate” narrative around here is beyond absurd. The dude was a career negative WAR player up until last year. People can keep ignoring that and the .392 BABIP he had last year all they like, but let’s not act like this guy is a proven superstar or something. There are legitimate red flags with him that have been pointed repeatedly. I have no idea why that offends so many people but it’s getting ridiculous. I’m all for optimism, but there’s nothing wrong with being objective at the same time. OK maybe hate is too strong a word. But the point is, what do you expect of Avi? It seems for many people, if he is not a superstar, he is a failure. He can be a very good productive player with out hitting .330.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 08:44 AM) His BB% increased and K% declined throughout the year, his BB% last year was below his career average, O-swing% was below career average, Z-swing% was well above career average, Z-contact% was well above career average, contact% was the highest it's been since his partial seasons, swstr% was career low. All of those things point to improved plate discipline or the potential for it. His pull rate was well above career average, hard contact rate was well above career average, soft contact rate was well below career average, FB% above career average, IFFB% below career average, he had one of the highest average exit velocities in MLB, and he had some sort of arm injury in July, after which he didn't hit a HR for a month and a half. All of those things point to improved power numbers or the potential for it. Avi could win the MVP, Triple Crown, cure cancer, dress in tights and fight crime by night and control the movement of the heavens and there would still be people that hate him and think he should do more.

QUOTE (Scoots @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 04:06 PM) The Royals have 5 picks in the first 42...that's nuts I'd bet they'd rather not have the picks and still have Hosmer, Cain and Moose.

QUOTE (FloydBannister1983 @ Oct 31, 2017 -> 02:38 PM) There's plenty of opportunity cost. Jobs will open next year and the year after. If Girardi were to stupidly take a job with the White Sox and then a desirable job opened next year the cost to him to be stuck here would be enormous. Best for him to take a studio job for a year or even two. I agree with the previous people that said he'd manage that team on the north side of Chicago. He doesn't need to take a stepping stone job at this point of his career. Ok, so you think the job on the north side is opening next year? How long is he going to sit on the sidelines? As I mentioned in my previous post, all the high profile, highly desirable jobs have been recently filled or seem completely happy with their managers. I know that can change in an instant, but how bad would Maddon have to be to get fired after next year? Or Francona? Or Roberts? What is the job that he wants so badly that is a year away?

QUOTE (FloydBannister1983 @ Oct 30, 2017 -> 11:17 AM) There's the concept of opportunity cost. For a top manager like Girardi it would be significant. For bottom of the barrel guys like Ventura or Renteria there is no opportunity cost. Where is the opportunity cost? What better job is going to open? Boston? Just hired someone. Dodgers? Can't see Roberts going anywhere. Cubs? Maddon punched his ticket. Nats? Just hired someone, and were probably too cheap to sign him. Mets? Just filled. Phillies? Just filled. Houston? Can't imagine Hinch in on the hot seat. Maybe there are others Girardi would prefer, but not necessarily the obvious ones. Who knows what matters to him. After being let go after the run he just had, maybe a little JR style loyalty is just what Girardi would be craving. Though with that said, I can't see the Sox dumping Ricky after 1 year.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Oct 26, 2017 -> 11:56 PM) There is no reason for Girardi to want to come here. Hmm. How about the fact that only 30 MLB manager positions exist in the world. Girardi currently does not hold one of them. The Sox have one. Seems like a reason to me.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Oct 25, 2017 -> 09:25 AM) The graphic also missed the 1999 Yankees, who also went 11-1. And it's not like there was a lot of stats to dig through, they only had to check 22 teams. That's a pretty terrible job by whoever did it. They were also wrong about the 1998 Yankees. They were 11-2.

Is Tomas really a type of give away candidate? He was injured for most of this season, but last year had a 30 HR 30 2B season. He is only 26. He isn't a strong defender, but certainly a guy the Dbacks could continue to use, and if they don't re-sigh JD, he will probably be penciled in as a starter, I would think at least.

If they go after a good reliable reliever, I would rather see them go after a guy like Kintzler. He would cost less, (though honestly, I have no idea what is market will be) and he could close next season, (Minaya-Jones- Kintzler not too shabby...) and possibly the following, and when the team is really ready to go for it, and they have their rock star closer of the future( Burdi?), Kintzler would be a great guy to have pitching the 7th.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Oct 10, 2017 -> 03:04 PM) Meh, the money is irrelevant, I just don't see much of anything in Albuquerque. For the most part he's a 31 year old 4A relief pitcher. Rather see the Sox convert Hawkins to a reliever and throw him to the wolves. He has a career 3.16 ERA, with almost 11 k/9. Even over the last 1-2-3 seasons, he has been respectable. Not sure the Sox have a ton of prospects ready for relief roles and I don't think they will spend money on top relievers. Alburquerque seems like a good fit to me. Not suggesting he is featured in a high leverage role, but for some middle relief/ mop up innings, he seems reasonable.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Oct 10, 2017 -> 11:01 AM) Agree about Albuquerque gone and Putnam re-signed to a minor league deal. The numbers look pretty close although I think Avi's projection is a tad lite. I think Avi gets 8M and deserves it. Curious as to why everyone want to punt Alburquerque? I know he isn't Kenley Jansen or anything, but he has been fairly effective and the Sox aren't exactly dripping with bullpen options. 1.1 seems like a fairly small risk to me.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 4, 2017 -> 05:10 PM) I don't see Collins being anywhere close to a good enough hitter where you're happy with him as a corner OF on this roster, especially not with Jiminez already coming up. When people were talking about Collins as a 30-40 HR hitter that might have made sense, but he wasn't anywhere close to that this season. If he can't come up as a catcher then he needs to hit vastly better than Delmonico, for example. Gary Sanchez never hit more than 18 homers in a minor league season. Collins hit 19 this year. And the only year Sanchez had a higher OBP was in his first season in rookie ball. It is a little soon to say he won't be an impact bat.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 25, 2017 -> 10:45 AM) It's not about how many bases you steal, it's about how often you're caught stealing. You can steal 40 bases all you want, but if you're caught 20 times, you're hurting the team. Depending on sources, runner on first and no out has about a 43% chance of scoring. Runner on 2nd no out is 63% (different sources have slightly different numbers, but it around 40% to around 60% seems pretty consistent (there is also about a 20 point jump for 3rd over 2nd). Obviously the CS% is a huge factor. With out doing any analysis on it, I would have to say that 80% success is excessive. If a guy is hitting on 2/3 steals that could be hugely beneficial to the team. Please, don't get too hung up on this. I know it isn't perfect. It is just an example running the numbers made up off the top of my head right now. But... For example, a guy with 600 PA and an OBP of .322 (last year's avg) would have reached base 193 times in that season. If he steals 20 bags and is caught 10 times, basically simulating that he had made an out in his PA instead of getting on, it would effect his OBP by .017 points (from .322 to .305). So, last year, league average SLG was .417. In 600 ABs that would equate to 250 total bases. Adding on those 20 stolen bases as total bases (basically moving singles to doubles) would move a player with a .417 SLG to a SLG of .450. So a guy with an OBP of .322 and SLG of .417 (OPS of 739) turns into a guys with an OBP of .305 and a SLG of .450 (755 OPS). If he is successful on 2/3 SB attempts he essentially raises his OPS .14 by virtue of those steals. In this rough draft example the risk of those SBs outweighs the risk of being caught 10 times, at least with my screwy way of accounting for things. I know game situation matters here as well. Just a rough example, but this team has a couple guys with fairly elite speed, if they could use it well enough, it could be a weapon. And this season, where win totals didn't really matter, was a great opportunity to work on base stealing skills.

QUOTE (Sox-35th @ Sep 24, 2017 -> 09:23 AM) Stolen bases are overrated as a stat. They're nice, but an out is a lot of risk. Hmm. Risk, yes. A lot of risk? Well that depends. High reward as well. If Moncada (or Anderson) can turn 30 singles or walks into doubles, well that gives the Sox a much better chance to score. Having speed like that on 2nd will lead to more runs. Honest question, if Trea Turner stole 5 bases a year, would he be a difference maker? I think as he is now he certainly is one. Do you think he would have scored as many runs? Do you think that 42 steal Trea Turner distracts pitchers? Do you think 8 stolen base Trea Turner would?

One thing I would like to see more of from Moncada (as well as a whole bunch of the other guys), is stolen bases. This team has speed to burn and hasn't used it to any real extent. Anderson, Moncada, Engel and Hanson should be running just about every time they are on base. Anderson and Engel have great rations but they don't run enough. Having speed can create a lot of havoc and put pressure on the defense and pitcher, but only if the team uses that speed.

QUOTE (oneofthemikes @ Sep 21, 2017 -> 10:51 AM) Brice Turang gets my vote. Super high ceiling prep SS that projects to stay there long term. Struck out ONCE in 101 ABs last season. I'll be watching both he and Jarred Kelenic very closely this coming season. Draft that pitcher!

QUOTE (Tex @ Sep 17, 2017 -> 08:12 PM) I am excited about having a top 3 pick even though I know it's still a crap shoot. Wasn't Jordan a 3 pick? Shows what a crap shoot it is. I mean that guy couldn't get past Birmingham.