Dominikk85

I think it is a combination out of several factors: -his plate discipline isn't as good as it looked in college. He had huge walk rates in college but if you are that dangerous you will get walked a lot unless you swing at absolute everything ala javy baez -he does have solid raw power but not huge all fields pop. To hit homers he needs to pull the ball at good angles. He doesn't pull the ball enough in the air and he isn't really willing to learn here and embrace modern data. Eno sarris once asked him about pulling more fly balls and vaughn basically told him he doesn't care about that nerd stuff. -sox rushed him and didn't provide good player dev and vaughn also isn't willing to seek outside help like driveline However this year there actually seems to be some kind of good change. His pull rate is well up to 48% and his pulled fb or ld percentage is up from 14 to 20% this season compared to last. A xwoba and barrel rate is also way up. K rate is also up to be fair but in the long run it should be worth the trade off. The results have been terrible (7 wrc+) but it also was like a 100 babip. If he can maintain a 14% barrel rate it should easily be a career best. A good org would encourage him to keep doing what he does and that results will eventually come if he keeps doing it but it is the sox and I would fear that coaches tell him "your production is bad, try to hit line drives at the second basemans knees and stop that pull sh*t":)

I like some of the underlying data early on. Chase rate: 2024: 33.8% (27th) 2025: 31.2% (15th) Pull% 2024: 38.1% (29) 2025: 42.4% (10) This is a sign of slight improvement in the approach, the free swing opposite field approach of the last 5-6 years really isn't the way to go unless you have several elite hit tool guys which they have not. Still of course the overall product on the field isn't good yet, especially since some of the lowest chase rate guys aren't really players with future impact or trade value (Mason, thaiss, tauchman) but it is a good sign they are trying stuff.

Canaria was a good prospect but he just strikes out a ton and has done so for most of his minor league career. He does have some pop and hits at high launch angles but really not doesn't hit hard enough to justify a 30+% k rate.

It is buying out some years though and there is quite some injury risk. It could easily turn into a big bargain if crochet holds up but 170 m is serious money, that is not likely that Scott kingery extension back then where he got 20 m and you say who cares if he busts. It basically is an insurance for crochet

I think given what he started with he had a decent start. Yeah the team is bad but at least he created a top 5 farm system again. Of course that was aided by some good contracts to trade that he inherited from the previous regime and a top 5 farm system is no guarantee as evidenced by the last rebuild when they also had a top 3-5 farm system but so far it at least is a start. Obviously now he has to show that development and health of the upcoming players is better than last time. We will see in 1-2 Years.

Eno sarris said in a podcast that he showed vaughn a graph that his production was closely correlated to his pull rate, ie. He was doing better in phases where he pulled the ball more. He said vaughn wasn't interested in that and didn't seem to be very into analytics at all.

Yes. Even if a breakout is unlikely it still makes sense to try because if he sucks again all you have lost is 6 mill that you wouldn't have invested in the roster elsewhere anyway.

First basemen are a bit overpaid in arbitration because arb is more about traditional numbers like HR and RBI and less about stuff like OBP or even WAR and doesn't consider positional adjustment a lot (if any). Vaughn was bad the last years but he still hit around 20 bombs with 70-80 RBI. Of course that came with low OBP and no defensive and positional value and thus close to replacement level but for arb 20 bombs and RBIs in the 70s don't Look so terrible. That makes first basemen kinda Tricky. They are paid rather high in arbitration but rather low in free agency unless they are really good (like several seasons at 130-140 wRC+ or better). But that "mid" first baseman who maybe has a 105-115 wrc+ and a little over 1 war is really not a sought after asset, that tends to be a guy you use in pre arb and arb1 when he is cheap and try to offload in arb 2 and 3 because those guys get good arb money due to HR and RBI numbers. If vaughn wasn't a third overall pick he probably would have been non tendered, especially by a contender that needs to save money to stay under the luxury tax but the sox have almost no payroll and no incentive to invest on the big league team so they can just as well pay him and hope that he has a breakout and can be flipped for something at the deadline. I don't think he will be great but I could see him hit 265/320/450 with 25 homers and 80 RBI and then you maybe get something (not a top prospect but maybe an interesting minor league reliever or a lower level lotto ticket) for him.

Including 2025 he has made a guaranteed 47 mil, he can afford to bet on himself.

I started this thread before the deadline. It didn't happen at the deadline and I don't think it is quite the best system but the system does rank pretty high now. Top 100 prospects on fangraphs 16 c. montgomery 23 Schultz 37 Hagen Smith 40 quero 42 teel 61 Bryan ramos 66 Jairo inciarte Braden montgomery is not ranked top100 but he is close. That is a pretty good state and a lot of those guys are already pretty close to the majors. That is no guarantee there will be success but it is a good starting point. Also Robert hasn't been traded yet. His value is at a low now but maybe someone is willing to pay 80 cents on the dollar or you keep him till the deadline and hope for a bounce back so he can add another 1-2 top100 guys

I would usually assume like plus 50% in the K rate. So if it is 10% in college it would be 15% in pro ball, if it is 15% in college it would be like low 20s in pro ball and low 20s in college would be 30+ in pro. So montgomery is a bit risky, especially since 20% was a low and the two years before it was 26% which is super dangerous territory (meaning mid 30s% in pro ball usually). But of course in some cases that might be fixable if it is only 1 or 2 flaws that cause that k rate that could be fixed.

I kinda like him as the plate discipline is really good but I'm a bit skeptical if the power is enough to play in the majors to more than a solid utility role. Those AAA parks often make power play up and defenses in milb aren't as good. Those mlb defenses analyze you very well and if you don't hit the ball very hard that 320 babip can become a 280 babip very quickly and all of a sudden that 300 hitter in AAA becomes a 260 hitter in mlb. Also at 23 his power is probably maxed out at mlb parks might actually make the power play down a little. Even his walks while they still will be a strength won't be quite as high in mlb as they where in AAA if he can't hurt pitchers with power. I still like him as a piece, he definitely should be a better utility piece than mendick and leury due to his plate discipline but unless he surprisingly has an unexpected power increase don't expect him to be a 300/400/400 hitter but more like 250/340/330 or so. Teel is a nice get, I think he can become an average starting catcher or a little better. Montgomery I'm skeptical. Lots of tools and could be really good but struck out a lot in college. If can can hit above 250 he would be a very nice player but we don't know that. Teel is the one that really hurts the red sox. Meidroth is a nice piece but very blocked in Boston and Montgomery is years away and red sox set up well in the OF but at catcher they could miss him, they don't have an obvious answer there.

I agree. Many of the recent rule changes where good (pitch clock, 3 batter minimum for pitchers) that that rule isn't really good. The idea seems to be to create a "buzzer beater" situation like in nba where the star can take a shot in the end to win or lose the game. So instead of closer vs 8th hitter who hits 240 with 8 homers you get closer vs Aaron judge or shohei ohtani to decide the game. But of course that can distort games a lot in favor of top heavy teams and also it would distort stats if a star gets another 162 at bats (albeit you could resolve that by making the manager skip the designated golden AB guy in a prior At bat (so that you can kinda push around the final AB of your star).

That is true, however it is still hard to produce above average mlb hitters. Even look at the dodgers,they are arguably the best team in developing and they had 5 homegrown players in the starting lineup of game 1 of the world series but only two of those where under 30. The dodgers haven't developed a good home grown hitter since Bellinger and Smith. Or look how much trouble the Yankees have to develop home grown hitters. Astros and Os seem to be good but if you discount the guys drafted top 5 overall it doesn't look all that good anymore. Developing good home grown hitters consistently is extremely hard even for the best teams. The same of course applies to starting pitching, super hard to produce consistent, durable starters. Still even acknowledging it is hard the sox have been very had. Especially bad has been the 2015-2019 period where they drafted 8, 10, 11, 4, 3. Over those 5 years the sox got Fulmer, Collins, burger, madrigal and vaughn. Here are some outcomes of draft years for those spots going back from 2021 (later it is too early to judge) 2021: Benny Montgomery,Kumar rocker, brady house, Jackson Jobe, Marcelo Mayer 2020: Robert hassell, Reid detmers, Garrett crochet, max Meyer, Asa lacey 2019: Josh jung, hunter bishop, Alex menoah, vaughn (sox), bleday 2018: Carter Stewart, Travis swaggerty, Grayson Rodriguez, Alec bohm, madrigal (sox) 2017: Jo adell, Adam haseley, jake burger (sox), Mckenzie gore, Brendan McKay 2016: Cal quantril, Zach Collins (sox), Kyle Lewis, Ian Anderson, Riley pint 2015: Tyler Stephenson, Cornelius Randolph, fulmer (sox), Brendan Rodgers, Dillon tate 2014: Max pentecost, Michael conforto, Kyle Freeland, Carlos rodon (sox), Kyle schwarber You see those selections (as a random selection to compare the sox against) aren't great But most have at least one player better than the best sox player from that time.

I would say mostly the hit tool is very hard to project, power and speed is easier to project but when you hit under the mendoza line the other tools don't matter much. Pitchers of course have their own risk, mostly injury.

The hit tool is the hardest tool to project especially for international and HS guys because everyone who has a half decent swing and good athleticism can hit .400 as long the pitching is bad enough. I'm hitting .400 in my beer league every year too:). In pitching 95 is 95 but in hitting the result is extremely dependent on the pitcher that you face. College hitters have less variance and bust rate but also less upside when you get past best first couple college bat picks (typically a college second rounder or late first rounder will make mlb has a bench/utility bat ceiling while a hs bat in that range could be a good player or bust out in AA with a 40 % k rate. Pitching of course also busts a lot, here it is more about injuries and also ability to throw strikes or hold your stuff through a pro schedule (every 5 days instead of once a week often velo drops). With the sox hitting it was imo a combination of bad development and prioritizing safety over upside. Sheets for example really isn't that much of a disappointment, his bat is mlb bench quality (got a little unlucky with babip), problem is that he is a 1b/emergency outfielder with a bench bat.

The disappointing thing about him is the plate discipline. In college he was advertised as having pristine plate discipline. In mlb his contact ability is fine but he consistently has above average chase rates and low walk rates. In college he walked a ton every year. Not sure what the issue is. Either he got pitched around so much that he walked despite mediocre pitch recognition or he has more trouble seeing mlb stuff than college stuff. His lack of ability to pull fly balls might actually be a coaching issue as sox have preached oppo approach and hit over power. I still think under the right circumstances he could take a step forward. 90% zone contact and a 112 Max EV is a good combination even though a mid 30s percent chase rate is not ideal of course but also not extremely egregious. With the right coaching I could seem him having a season where he hits 280 with 30 bombs.

Abreu is a legend but I think his batspeed is just gone, he can't turn around fastballs above 95 anymore. Last year he didn't pull a single fastball above 95 in the air, that is just the physical skill gone. He is still a good hitter and if he faces pitchers who throw 89 with 78 mph sliders he will destroy them but velo is just killing him and in mlb he doesn't see many guys who throw 90 but most are 95+ on fastball and 86+ on the slider nowadays.

I think it is a good hire. He has worked very successfully in Baltimore before. Yes he was fired but it was also after being promoted to a very different position. Mlb hitting coaching is quite different from being a minor league hitting coordinator, that is much more about game planning, mental stuff and relationships to players. As a hitting coordinator his role is to coach the coaches so that they ideally have a shared vision of what they want to teach to those kids.

The rich get richer, dodgers hired the probably best public pitching analyst max Bay (guy who modeled stuff + for eno sarris) https://x.com/choice_fielder/status/1853480735770050680?t=zVpZ34k9CzB5J4aka2ZNFQ&s=19

More important than having a top notch analytics group is having structures that implement the findings. There are 1000s of great baseball analysts out there who can do great work. There are still differences in quality of analytics but the key point is how it is implemented in scouting and coaching. What makes the really good orgs good is not that they are super cutting edge but that they are very good in communicating and implementing it across the whole Organisation. I read some posts by drivelines Kyle boddy a couple years ago where he claimed in some orgs reports by the analytics department are put into the bin without being read. Or slightly better but still bad others where the reports are being read and then guy reading it says "cool, that's interesting, now what should I do with it?" What will make or break the sox is not hiring a couple smart guys but having leadership implementing structures that forces everyone to actually implement the stuff. The sox did hire some smart guys in the past like for example Ryan Johansen who is a biomechanics expert but it clearly wasn't implemented as many of the sox hitters had a groundball, opposite field focused approach with a lot of chase. When the sox want to do it better this time they need to create better implementation structures and remove structures where old school coaches are laughing off analytics and just continue their way

Yes, also Santander might be really bad defensively relatively soon so if his bat Slips a little you have another expensive mediocre DH.

I think the sale return was great at the time. Moncada was a risky Player at that point but he was actually good for the sox before covid and injuries. Nobody could have seen that. Not everyone saw him at 1 overall but everyone had him top5. Kopech was a top50 overall prospect at the time and a great second piece. Sale was insanely good and at a great age and contract obviously but getting a consensus top5 prospect, a consensus top50 prospect was quite good. The big issue was that all those trade returns either were injury prone, underperformed or both.

The Os System isn't all that great anymore when you consider holliday, mayo and basallo untouchable. Sure getting one of the 3 as a headliner would be great but the Os weakest positions are second, third and first base and those are exactly the positions that their big 3 prospects project to play at (basallo can catch but most see him better Suited at 1B as he isn't a good defender). The Os need holliday at second and urias isn't great at third either so that keeps those two. At first mountcastle isn't bad but after they moved back the left field wall his power doesn't really play there anymore and he is more of a 15-20 homer guy with an ok but not great hit tool. The Os might want more than .270 with 20 homers from the 1b spot. But if anyone out of the 3 would be available it would be basallo.

I'm kinda scared to hear that. A too "noisy" hand load can hurt you and cause timing issues and it can make sense to quiet it down, especially when you are wild like Gary sheffield but vargas already has a pretty small and quiet hand load. I'm working with some hitters and I don't love the slight hand lift he does and would prefer the load to be more "connected" to the shoulders (more in line with the natural coiling of the hips and trunk) but it still isn't a very noisy load and with the sox "expertise" in player development I fear they will deaden his hands completely and kill the bit of power he has making him a total slap guy like the sox did with so many hitters