Dominikk85

He still walks at a solid clip and hits an occasional Homer but the hit tool is just not really there anymore. All those injuries probably have taken their toll.

Not really, Hamilton is very good by all defensive metrics (uzr, oaa..) But of course he is still a bad hitter who is just having a hot week which occasionally happens. But as long all those guys are injured I take every help even if it is fluky.

That call helped:). Nice play

I Guess triple and an error

I hate to go there as that could fuel racists but do we have to talk about the fact that 13 out of the 16 suspended players for DV have been Latino players (the other three Norris, dyson and Wright have been white)? Obviously Latinos are not more violent intrinsically than white or black Americans but I wonder whether the low education level of Latin players (mlb takes them out of school at age 16) contributes to that. Maybe mlb has to Re think the sign at 16 model

I found a post from 2018 that a cousin died in a car accident. Did you see that one or did another cousin of him die?

Teams aren't doing intentional walks anymore. Tony probably isn't up to date in many things but not intentionally walking guys is coming from the Saber metrics guys. Basically intentional walks are now only done in walk of situations or in front of NL pitchers https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/intentional-walk-decline-let-mlb-teams-do-the-scouting/

How is that an error by nick? He was running on full speed to that ball and throwing while running away from the base. Throw wasn't great but he would have been safe anyway had nick not tried that very difficult throw.

Teams won't forget his injury history though. He has a good age but his injury history will drag him down. I think best case for him is what eovaldi got (4/70 or so).

Lamb is almost the same hitter as grandal this year. High walk rate, low average, a bit of power.

Pretty smart by stone to predict the CU with that much confidence.

Yoan was the top prospect in baseball and eloy was a top20 prospect when they got him, certainly neither was a raw prospect and both posted a 900 ops in their last non sox Milb season. I definitely feel better when the sox get more polished prospects.

Has any hitter really signigificantly improved in the sox system though? Sox brought up some good hitters the last years but most of them were performing from the get go in the minors and generally more polished hitters. Who was the last more raw type for the sox who initially had some flaws but then fixed it and really overperformed the expectations? TA might fit that mold but that also was like half a decade ago, most of the raw flawed but toolsy guys really never improved much. I know the sox did try to gain ground by having guys like Johansen but while he is smart we don't know how much support he gets and we have yet to see the sox "fixing" raw hitters with warts. Not saying they should always get "finished products" like madrigal and Vaughn, especially since finished products outside the top 10 have too little upside but when going toolsy I would prefer young guys like HS and international who have more time to figure it out.

I think that is a good think. I listened to a podcast and a pitching guy many great mlb sliders have more drop than lateral movement (lateral movement is currently really "out" anyway and teams chase vertical movement (rise on FB and drop on breaking balls). I think that slider will play great in the majors but there is some risk he is a reliever. Unlike Fulmer though his elite breaking ball gives him a much higher floor as a reliever. Still obviously you don't want to go top 5 with a reliever risk guy but 5 to 10 with a guy with some relief risk who still has a good chance to become a front line starter is a good deal.

Interestingly hit batters are already at a high despite pitchers using substances. I think the safety argument is pretty bogus, it clearly doesn't seem to work right now.

MLB has said they are analyzing balls and monitoring unusual spin rates. I think They plan to do something like the Mitchell report where they are doing a secret study as a warning and then start real testing the next year so everyone has the chance to get off the juice. So it might be this year they are warning guys and occasionally busting one and then next year start real enforcement

I'm out on Fabian. D1 pitchers got a lot better and the old rule of thumb that above 20% k rate is death sentence is no longer true but I don't think fabian will hit above 230 in pro ball or ever strike out under 30% and more likely mid to high 30s which doesn't work even in modern baseball

Past is the past. It sucks but I haver never faulted Hahn for this. Tatis was a prospect but he was ranked like the 28th international prospect of that class and not ranked anywhere close to the top100 by any outlet. Going by signing bonus he was 31st and the guys around him where 28. Christopher morel 29. Isaac paredes 30. Alvaro seijas 31. Tatis 32. Elvis alvarado 33.miguel hernandez 34. Yunior perez 35. Brailyn Marquez I only have heard 3 out of those 8 names and really only one seems to become an above average mlb player (maybe paredes can too). Those are just lottery tickets that sometimes work out but usually that is the guy becoming an average player, the tatis thing was totally unique because his athleticism jumped up unexpectedly (that j2s get stronger is normal but that they also get faster and more agile is rare) and because he has ++ work ethic and desire to get better. Sure you could have said Hahn should have gotten a better pitcher than shields but still he could have never won that trade. So what are you going to do? Never trade away young lotto tickets? You can do that but then you are not going to win because nobody will trade with you when you only offer 23 year old fringe prospects unless you are offering your top prospects which is an even worse thing to do. And even the super smart teams are doing that. The dodgers traded yadier Alvarez who is often injured but when not was a superstar hitter so far for Josh fields. It sucks that it happened but you can't let that keep you from making trades, sometimes that is going to happen and tatis really was the 99th percentile outcome. If anything I think Hahn does have that in his head a little too much and became a little gun shy at the deadline the last two years but I really don't fault anyone for that trade except for not getting a better guy than shields. But would you really have felt much better now if Hahn had traded him for let's say julio Teheran (who was a solid pitcher at that time)? Also I read preller always loved him and was looking for a chance to snatch him but while that might be true if he really saw that coming why didn't he offer him more or why did he give the same amount of money to Andres munoz instead of getting tatis?

Was thinking about that after the Gallegos incident. I always thought every pitcher does that so just let them go and we have a level playing field but I listened to a podcast with eno sarris and eno said he spoke with some guys behind the szenes and it was no longer just good old pine tar but teams are experimenting with different substances, mixing stuff and even use different stuff on different fingers and achieving several hundred more RPM on their pitches. He even talked about minor league teams doing spin clinics where young pitchers are taught how to optimally add substances. I'm not worried so much about cheating but about this being bad for the game as hitters can't handle 3k RPM breaking balls and high spin fastballs thus increasing strikeouts and making games not easier on the eyes. I think we are a a point where the league needs to do something, either control the pitcher before every inning or maybe allow one standardized substance with moderate spin effect that everyone can use. What is your thought?

Yes. Called strike rate is 25% of all pitches vs 16% League average. Since that is on a per pitch base the difference is even more dramatic than it sounds. Called strikes plus swinging strikes is a new Stat that currently is big in the fantasy analytics community for pitchers. Generally it means low swinging strike guys (like grandal) can take more called strikes but there is a limit to that.

Grandals swinging strike rate is excellent at below 8% (league average is 11). However his called strikes+swinging strikes percentage is 33% which is very high (league average 28% and everything over 30% is a red flag). CSW% is highly correlated with K rate so grandal is simply too passive (25% called strikes vs league average of around 16%). That leads to him falling behind too much. Obviously his sw strike rate is artificially lowered by only swinging middle middle, ie he would miss a little more if he covered more of the plate and part of his skill is being selective within the zone because he does have holes in his swing however 38% zone swing rate is just absurdly low (lg average is like 66 or so). Partience is always going a huge part of his game and he never was a guy like prime miggy Cabrera who could could cover all 4 edges of the zone but this year he just is too passive. OBP is Stil good and that is fine but his slugging percentage and average are very bad. He should be patient but that is just too passive.

Yeah I heard that. I think they were well into double digits games until their first win.

The difference is that in that case he would have already demonstrated performance against high level college pitching. That doesn't mean there is no chance he will do that but it is something else when you have shown it then if you maybe do it. If course HS kids now also face some high level competition on showcases and not just their 80mph HS pitchers but not the same sample size and quality as college players. That makes HS players more uncertain to predict. In short in HS players you want upside and room to grow because if you want a mature, present performing player you could take a college player. That doesn't mean polished HS players are bad but you still prefer some room to grow instead of maxed out older guys. Obviously if he did go to college now and raked and then entered the draft as a draft eligible soph his stock would go up but he also would be a different player then because he would have taken part of the bust risk on his own shoulders.

Maybe TLR resigns:)