Dominikk85

The difference between his ops+ and wRC+ is interesting. Ops+ is 83 which is like replacement level but wrc+ is 102 which is slightly above average. That is unusual, wrc+ is considered more accurate but usually wRC+ is within 2-3 points of ops+ but in the rare case of low slugging and high obp it can differ as OPS overrated slugging and underrated obp.

The sox have underperformed their run differential but they also have also outperformed their projections despite severe injuries. Fangraphs had them like an 87 win team pre season and with the injuries more like an 85 win team (fg says 68-62 rest of the way). I don't think TLR managed everything great and he did make some mistakes but really the sox play way better than their projection. So you could argue TLR makes the team lose more games than their run differential but you could also say he made them play to a higher run differential than their true talent. Often his lineups are criticised and there is something to that but the sox scored 5.13 runs so far vs 4.86 projected so it is clearly working so far. I do hope that Katz supports him with the pitching management though an intervenes when necessary as Tony indeed missed some decisions there. The last games it got better though and he pulled the trigger earlier, the last 6 games all starters were pulled before they reached 100 pitches, so maybe he is listening to some guys.

Line up position almost doesn't matter. Best vs worst line up is maybe 1 or 2 wins. What matters more is who is actually in the lineup. In the beginning lamb and Hamilton did play too often but really in the last 10 days or so they mostly came off the bench. I liked the last line ups but part of it was forced by injuries of course.

Also even in the majors you forget most flame outs. Maybe then it was not declarated as ucl injury or labrum tear but you just heard "dead arm" and the guy was gone. We tend to remember the nolan Ryan's who pitched for 20 years and forget the guys who flamed out after two years so we think pitchers were more durable back then, but really those guys who threw 250+ innings for 20 years were 1%ers.

McCann obviously will get better as he is hitting now (babip and HR/FB way lower than career norms) but his Sox stats also were so good because he was protected and put in favorable spots. He likely is more of a 95 wrc+ true talent guy while grandal is like a 115-120 wrc+ guy.

Every team is streaky, that isn't a thing. There still is a strong platoon split but the sox did get better against rhp and posted a 104 wRC+ as a team against them so far which is not great but above average (6th in AL). They also absolutely murder LHP (mlb leading 141 wrc+). This is really the recipe for them, try to be slightly above average against righties and murder lefties and the offense will be fine. Just make sure you don't have long droughts against RHP, occasionally getting blanked by a good righty is fine but avoid long bad stretches against rhp.

Grandal is too passive currently. He is walking at an insane rate which is good and his chase rate is elite at 17% but his zone swing rate is just 41% (league average is like 65%) which means he is taking a ton of called strikes. You don't have to swing at every strike (you want to take some tough ones "on the black") but taking so many called strikes is not good because it means lots of two strike counts. His zone contact and swinging strike rate is actually improved but I wonder if that is because he just swings middle middle. He never was a huge plate coverage guy and a guy who patiently waits for a mistake pitch but I feel he has taken it a bit too far and is too passive. He needs to jump on pitches in the zone a little more.

Nice yermin. I think he got a little more patient again today after getting a bit too swing happy, probably thought he could hit every pitch out of the park after his hot streak. Grandal got a little Lucky here though that the throw was off line, the throw would have beat him by 15 feet:)

Pitchers didn't throw as hard and even the ones who did throw hard didn't throw every pitch max effort as back then your number 8 hitting second baseman hit 5 homers a year so you would take a bit off and let him get out himself or hit a single, but today your 8th hitter can hit 15-20 Homers and thus pitchers go max effort every pitch. This of course comes at a cost of health but is the only way to succeed

Which is a good thing, innings 7-10 is when you want to Defensively replace Vaughn if you have a lead. That will cost him an at bat here and there but still is a good decision. What was really bad was the one game were Vaughn came in as a defensive replacement:).

I think he could be signed for something like 4/45 (if he finishes the year strong) . Would be a good deal for both, rodon has made his money in case he falls apart again next year and the team that signs him gets upside and in case he falls apart you can still manage the loss. He certainly does have an increased injury risk that would prevent a big contract but the upside is still not super easy to find (he was a no 3 pick for a reason)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/mlb/news/former-mlb-exec-albert-pujols-age/1munpjji15ukb1w1jj1o05kjhc

There are also rumors that pujols is 3-4 years older than his birth certificate

Listened to a podcast with eno sarris and eno is a bit down on giolito. Eno has some command and stuff plus metrics and he said currently Lucas grades very bad in the command plus and also his stuff plus is down, especially fastball spin and ride. He said the command issue comes and goes with him so that is not a huge deal but the stuff plus is a bit worrisome. I wonder if maybe the new ball is some issue for him?

I wonder if Jerry and TLR could save face by giving Tony a young, sabermetrically leaning bench coach who reminds tony to pull a tired starter or pinch hit for billy hamilton. We all know jerry calls the shots and not Hahn so Hahn basically has to carefully talk Jerry into such an idea so Tony can finish the season, Jerry and Tony save face and then Tony retires in the off season and the young guy takes over.

QIt is a dumb take that this in on TLR. Once it was 1st and 3rd and nobody out the chance to win was down to like 5% anyway. Maybe they should have walked him but it was essentially over when they didn't score. The real bad thing was Leury stealing, with Hamilton up without the steal Tim would have had another crack at it. I also would have preferred collins over Billy there so if you Want to blame TLR it is for not pinch hitting for Billy Hamilton but once it is first and third and nobody out that game was already lost. If You think that pitching to winker changed the game odds significantly think again, we are maybe talking 3% win chance was 5% here. Bases Loaded And No Out Or 1st and third and no out both means you have almost no chance to prevent a run scoring.

Is he? Those teams are not good the next 2-3 years so getting a soon 28 yo wouldn't help them so much as he will be like 31+ when they are good again. Yermin is attractive for a contender with a hole in their line up who need a DH the next 2-3 years. Obviously the Pirates or Rockies could get him as a trade chip in case he proves to be the next Nelson Cruz but I would guess they would prefer 20-23yo prospects who can actually help their big league club in 3 years or so when their tank job is over

So far Vaughn is average by statcast outs above average which is great. He has made every 1 and 2 star play Opportunity that he got. I will Say he got a little Lucky though as he hasn't gotten a single 3 or 4 star opportunity and only, 2 5 star ones which he didn't catch. I'm not expecting him to make 5 star plays (even the top fielders make only like 30% of them) but the real test Will be when he gets the 3 and 4 star opportunities. He did get Lucky that balls were hit out of his range or at him basically. Still it is a good thing that he does make the routine outs it could have been a lot worse and I think at least for this year he is OK. Obviously long term he is too slow for the Of but he seems to have good instincts and not getting nervous out there

Really the surprise of the year. Their top3 looked good but after that it was pretty questionable but so far the rotation has been lights out, and the back of the rotation even outperformed the top. Rank in AL War 1st ERA+ 1st K-bb% 3rd Fip 1st IP 6th (would be second without all the rain outs) Rotation is good and going deep into games. Good start for Katz, now he just needs to get the pen back on track (9th in ERA but 5th in fip)

Lots of talk about the training staff but I wonder if you can really blame them. Eloy was a freak/idiotic play incident and and flexor strain can happen. Same applies to Tim's strain early in the season, that can happen when it is early and cold. I'm more concerned about the pitcher injuries. The sox had a relatively good pitcher health stretch in the early to mid 2010s but in the last years it got quite bad with lots of injuries. I don't think the sox training staff is bad but maybe it is not Completely top of the line? Then again I'm not sure if this is even a puzzle that can be resolved. The Yankees hired "super guru" Eric cressey and so far there is not a huge effect an Yankees still get injured all the time. Maybe @ptatc can say what the state of the art is and if there even is a solution for that or whether baseball players just get injured?

Depends what you mean with quality prospects but I'm sure at least two outfielders younger than 32 (marte,Polanco, maybe even pederson when the cubs continue to suck) that are not washed up will be traded this deadline without costing a 50 or better FV prospect.

I agree, no team can cover that. Still I think it was a mistake to not get at least one guy after the eloy injury because you could not have assumed that Vaughn is acceptable out there. Vaughn could have flopped defensively and then you would have needed another guy anyway. The roster was quite imbalanced to begin with due to all the 1b/DH guys and really the outfield was Robert, Eaton, a utility infielder and a very slow first baseman. That is not a good recipe. Regarding Robert I'm sure he will come back strong.

Is that so? Imo prices are not created by need but with what the second highest bidder wants to pay. Hahn has proven several times that he is willing to do nothing when the price is not right (last deadline the sox definitely would have needed a RF and a DH and Hahn did nothing) so if the teams want prospects they need to take what they can get. Modern baseball owners Don't "need" to win, they will invest a certain amount and if it is not enough they just accept that they will lose. Jerry would love to win a WS but he is not willing to go into the red for that and in the end that means teams are not bidding against themselves. Maybe that was different 20 years ago when teams like the Yankees wanted to win at all cost but nowadays even the Yankees and dodgers are money conscious and only willing to go so far (see luxury tax). Generally all teams are now very stingy with prospects and won't pay much more than surplus value and the second highest bidder dictate. I mean what are the pirates going to do if Hahn is willing to walk away with nothing and nobody bids higher?

Is that so? Tauchman was super cheap. I feel position players over age 27 with two or less years of control tend to be super cheap when it comes to prospects unless they are absolute elite and even elite rental position players don't tend to yield a big haul (see what the dodgers paid for Machado). I don't know a name but isn't there some decent 29-31 year old who is going to be a free agent after this season who is decent but won't cost a ton (let's Say a 45fv and a 35+ lotto ticket) ? There are so many tanking teams looking to unload for prospects.

Hahn definitely did a great job in the rebuild. Drafting was OK but not great but the Cuban signings and especially the selling deals were great. His free agent deal record is a bit mixed though and I feel he was not agressive enough in "buy" trades considering how good the buying market is due to high prospect valuation. Don't get me wrong, I like that he kept the top prospects but I feel he let some of the second tier guys just rot in the minors until they had no value anymore while teams like the As and Rays sell well too but they also aggressively ship away their older non elite prospects before they get rule 5ed. I wonder if Hahn is a bit gunshy in dealing prospects due to the tatis deal and thus hoarding prospects a little sometimes until they lose all value (sheets and Rutherford for example). Hope he gets a bit more aggressive with dealing non top prospects (especially those 22-23yo and older) , Milb depth is nice but at some point prospects lose their value.