Dominikk85

Yeah I agree, I can understand if you don't want to rank madrigal top25 due to upside concerns but not ranking him is quite crazy. Really for an 80-100 ranked player you are glad if he becomes a 2 war player. For example here are the 2014 fg top100. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2014-top-100-prospects/ There are some solid players ranked 80-100 and even a few good ones (berrios, odorizzi, wong, colome) but most of them did not even become multi year regulars.

Yeah they have lots of pitching but pitching prospects can evaporate quickly (like it happened with many sox P prospects too). Their position player side of prospects is still pretty weak apart from witt who is very far away.

I don't think the royals will be very good, I think they bought low on benintendi after his bad last year and hope he can bounce back so they can flip him for a better prospect at the deadline. I think it is a good trade. Lee has some tools but also a massive K problem and not much developed game power so maybe it was time to cash in for him.

I think Jose also benefited from having no April to mid may or so. He doesn't like the cold weather and usually isn't as good the first 6 or so weeks of the season. Career ops by month April 836 May 806 June 848 July 830 August 987 September 884 Overall 870. So last year he started with hot weather right away. Even that he was quite bad the first two weeks (maybe it is not just the weather but also some time to warm up) but in August and September he really raked. I think the better shape also played a role as playing for a contender motivated him more but some regression certainly will be coming. I would gladly take 3 war and a 130 wRC+ from him this year.

That is Strange, fan graphs depth charts has them at 88 wins (1 behind the twins and with only one AL team projected for 90+). I think 83 is way to low, and I think even 88 is quite conservative, I would guess more like 90 as median outcome.

I don't think it will change because once covid bans are lifted there won't be that many DHs anymore. Reason they are needed now is the shortened season and make up games due to covid postponements. For a couple DHs a year you don't need to change the rule.

So to have a baseline here are the stats: wRC+: 113 Starter ERA: 3.85 Bullpen ERA: 3.76 I think the pen could get better. Some guys like foster might regress some but hendricks is a addition. The starters is a little complicated. The ERA might not be much lower but the Sox also had some big time luck last year (4.6 fip vs 3.8 era). So the underlying skills will be better and also the innings which then helps the pen. Lineup I think might be about the same or slightly worse. DH and RF should be a lot better but some guys are also due to some decline. But overall a 113 wrc+ could be attainable again. So pitching definitely should be better albeit luck last year covered quite a bit so results might not be dramatically different

Counts as a GC shutout but not as a PG https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/seven-inning-doubleheaders-no-hitter-rules.html

I like the 7 inning DH and I might even like 7 innings period. Yeah it would be a big change but with starters only going like 5 do we really need to see 4 innings of relief pitching every night? But of course we don't know whether with 7 inning games starters would be lowered to 4 or so.

Yeah I think he wants to do that late career michael jordan thing where would just sign one year contracts. But of course the injury risk in pitching is much higher. But of course bauer already has made like 35m and is almost guaranteed that 100m plus he can now do that circus several times and hype up his "brand"

Yes it was a good fit, especially since the contract would have been over before the core gets expensive. However jerry also never was going to pay 40m AAV even for just two years I hope the sox spend a bit more but I don't think you can blame him for not spending one of the highest AAVs ever.

Kopech almost certainly will be on an innings limit coming back from TJ (technically he already came back last year but after skipping the season I don't see more than 110 innings for him this season). Also there could be an injury and it is unclear how much cease improved. It could work without another starter but it would be quite some risk

I'm ok with not signing a DH. I think there is a good chance that vaughn is decent enough with a chance that he is good. And even if he is just a 95 wrc+ guy as an absolute floor for his first year the lineup can take that. Yeah the lineup is still a bit too right handed but with enough elite right handed hitters that is ok (kinda like the 2015 blue jays). Much more important is getting another starter as even if cease takes a step forward there still is no depth and one injury could be quite a problem.

Essentially the contract is a two year contract with a safety cushion player option. Bauer will certainly take the 85m in the first two years but the 17m he will only take if he is very bad or very hurt. So most likely he will opt out after year two which the dodgers are probably planning for in their payroll structure.

They could offer him now 7/120. This would buy out the 3 arb years (maybe 35m or so combined) and then give them 4 more years which would make him a FA at age 32 and gives him another chance for a good payday.

Collins has an 840 career ops in the minors which is very solid for a catcher (or better yet good, in the majors 840 is about a 120 wrc+). Yeah he was bad in the majors but we are talking about 120 PAs which is absolutely nothing, you can't really say anything before a player at least has like 700 career PAs. Maybe he can't catch but he has absolutely hit in the minors (even with a bit untraditional profile with higher K and BB rates). Not giving Collins 400+ PAs in 2019 when the sox still were tanking was a huge mistake.

Yeah but he didn't strike out a lot of guys so he does need some batted balls falling in his favor. He does have the skill to induce weak contact his whole career but still obviously with contact something can always happen and you would prefer a high K guy who doesn't even allow contact even though he maybe walks some guys

He doesn't have massive power for a 1b but he did hit a lot of bombs in college. His statcast numbers in the minors point to like 55 grade raw power but the ability to get to all of it due to his hit tool. Scouts do expect him to hit like 30 bombs. He probably is not a nelson cruz who hits 45 bombs at his peak but 30 bombs with a 290 average and 370 obp is really nice. It will also be interesting what approach he chooses. If he goes for power and pulls the ball a lot he will hit some more homers but take a babip hit and hit probably more like 270 (basically what konerko did). But he could also use an all field approach and maybe hit high 20s homers with a 300+ average.

Colome was great last year but there was some luck involved too. Obviously this is a pattern with him (3.54 career fip and 2.95 career ERA) but I still see him more as a good setup man than a top team closer.

Yeah obviously. Even a Player statistically worth .1 win could be worth two wins in two if he gets two timely RBI hits. However that also is true the other day, Mike trout can hit .100 for two weeks and yolmer sanchez can hit .400 during that span. That value is just an average

Would they give up a year of service time for two weeks though? I calculated in another thread that two weeks of a sub replacement DH vs a solid one costs about .2 wins for two weeks. Is .2 wins worth a year?

The shine of the astros also has come off a bit.they were the hottest shit in player dev and analytics but their farm system got a lot weaker recently with only 1 top100. Sure they also traded and graduated quite a few guys but also many people in the industry believe they overdid the new school stuff, especially the cancellation of scouting.

I think we also need to consider the possibility that there is nothing close to a full minor league season. With no fans and corona prevention measures milb might become financially even less profitable and if milb starts in August or so maybe mlb is the only viable option

Not a fan of this either. Multi inning relief is better than just set up guy but still that is not a good environment to develope his third pitch. If you work on a third pitch in milb you just throw it a lot in all counts until it works in games even if that means you give up a couple bombs. But in MLB you are probably not throwing that with runners on when you are not 100% confident as you don't want to give up a granny and then tell your teammates "sorry I was working on something". Obviously you can still work on stuff on your side sessions but it is not the same as in games. Also relieving doesn't provide a regular schedule. If they really want to do something like this I would prefer them using him as an extended opener for the 5th starter. Let crochet go about 3 innings and then bring in the 5th starter as a follower for another 4 or so. That is not ideal either but better than a totally irregular schedule. But best would be developing in the minors so he can work on everything instead of worrying about results.

Good write up. Middle IF is really a weak spot of the system, especially true SS prospects.