Dominikk85

Yes it was a good fit, especially since the contract would have been over before the core gets expensive. However jerry also never was going to pay 40m AAV even for just two years I hope the sox spend a bit more but I don't think you can blame him for not spending one of the highest AAVs ever.

Kopech almost certainly will be on an innings limit coming back from TJ (technically he already came back last year but after skipping the season I don't see more than 110 innings for him this season). Also there could be an injury and it is unclear how much cease improved. It could work without another starter but it would be quite some risk

I'm ok with not signing a DH. I think there is a good chance that vaughn is decent enough with a chance that he is good. And even if he is just a 95 wrc+ guy as an absolute floor for his first year the lineup can take that. Yeah the lineup is still a bit too right handed but with enough elite right handed hitters that is ok (kinda like the 2015 blue jays). Much more important is getting another starter as even if cease takes a step forward there still is no depth and one injury could be quite a problem.

Essentially the contract is a two year contract with a safety cushion player option. Bauer will certainly take the 85m in the first two years but the 17m he will only take if he is very bad or very hurt. So most likely he will opt out after year two which the dodgers are probably planning for in their payroll structure.

They could offer him now 7/120. This would buy out the 3 arb years (maybe 35m or so combined) and then give them 4 more years which would make him a FA at age 32 and gives him another chance for a good payday.

Collins has an 840 career ops in the minors which is very solid for a catcher (or better yet good, in the majors 840 is about a 120 wrc+). Yeah he was bad in the majors but we are talking about 120 PAs which is absolutely nothing, you can't really say anything before a player at least has like 700 career PAs. Maybe he can't catch but he has absolutely hit in the minors (even with a bit untraditional profile with higher K and BB rates). Not giving Collins 400+ PAs in 2019 when the sox still were tanking was a huge mistake.

Yeah but he didn't strike out a lot of guys so he does need some batted balls falling in his favor. He does have the skill to induce weak contact his whole career but still obviously with contact something can always happen and you would prefer a high K guy who doesn't even allow contact even though he maybe walks some guys

He doesn't have massive power for a 1b but he did hit a lot of bombs in college. His statcast numbers in the minors point to like 55 grade raw power but the ability to get to all of it due to his hit tool. Scouts do expect him to hit like 30 bombs. He probably is not a nelson cruz who hits 45 bombs at his peak but 30 bombs with a 290 average and 370 obp is really nice. It will also be interesting what approach he chooses. If he goes for power and pulls the ball a lot he will hit some more homers but take a babip hit and hit probably more like 270 (basically what konerko did). But he could also use an all field approach and maybe hit high 20s homers with a 300+ average.

Colome was great last year but there was some luck involved too. Obviously this is a pattern with him (3.54 career fip and 2.95 career ERA) but I still see him more as a good setup man than a top team closer.

Yeah obviously. Even a Player statistically worth .1 win could be worth two wins in two if he gets two timely RBI hits. However that also is true the other day, Mike trout can hit .100 for two weeks and yolmer sanchez can hit .400 during that span. That value is just an average

Would they give up a year of service time for two weeks though? I calculated in another thread that two weeks of a sub replacement DH vs a solid one costs about .2 wins for two weeks. Is .2 wins worth a year?

The shine of the astros also has come off a bit.they were the hottest shit in player dev and analytics but their farm system got a lot weaker recently with only 1 top100. Sure they also traded and graduated quite a few guys but also many people in the industry believe they overdid the new school stuff, especially the cancellation of scouting.

I think we also need to consider the possibility that there is nothing close to a full minor league season. With no fans and corona prevention measures milb might become financially even less profitable and if milb starts in August or so maybe mlb is the only viable option

Not a fan of this either. Multi inning relief is better than just set up guy but still that is not a good environment to develope his third pitch. If you work on a third pitch in milb you just throw it a lot in all counts until it works in games even if that means you give up a couple bombs. But in MLB you are probably not throwing that with runners on when you are not 100% confident as you don't want to give up a granny and then tell your teammates "sorry I was working on something". Obviously you can still work on stuff on your side sessions but it is not the same as in games. Also relieving doesn't provide a regular schedule. If they really want to do something like this I would prefer them using him as an extended opener for the 5th starter. Let crochet go about 3 innings and then bring in the 5th starter as a follower for another 4 or so. That is not ideal either but better than a totally irregular schedule. But best would be developing in the minors so he can work on everything instead of worrying about results.

Good write up. Middle IF is really a weak spot of the system, especially true SS prospects.

I think the alternate site thing is the better the more raw a prospect is. A more raw player with mechanical and approach issues can benefit more from that kind of guided instruction where you can kinda mix up classic work on mechanics and stuff like that with live ABs. A more polished player like vaughn will benefit less from that but still it obviously is better to have that than just hitting in the cage and lifting weights.

Yeah I agree. More people are reporting it and teams nowadays fire guys pretty quickly. Still probably many women won't come out because they fear a "double punishment" where their story is believed and action is taken (which is better than previously where nothing was done) but still their job is made harder because teams are reluctant to let them work with them for the fear of similar stories getting out. That is kinda like canseco after he made those steroid accusations. That stuff proved to be true but he still was tremendously hated for "snitching", especially because he did it himself (which he admitted of course but "dragged" other colleagues into it. This kind of unofficial punishment is a big problem that gets ignored too. Even if a female journalist keeps her job and they do believe her story and fire the predator that is a good thing but it doesn't mean her job won't be harder after that. They might still allow her into the clubhouse but be a bit more tight lipped (because she is viewed as a risk and "trouble maker") when providing information which affects her ability to write good articles. This stuff will take much longer to be resolved. People now say "what do you want? since me too companies are actually firing predators" but while that is good and true there are still unofficial repercussions that will make your job harder even if you "won", like for example your boss who was friends with the fired guy now being tougher or colleagues shunning you. This stuff needs to change too and it is much harder to do because that stuff happens so subtly that it is hard to enforce legally. Good companies now have anti retaliation policies but in many cases it is hard to prove.

That is how those guys operate, they make a lot of predictions and if the hit they hype it and the misses they just don't talk about.

I'm pretty confident that the sox at least have 4 more years, possibly 5-6. Sure giolito is only there through 23 but I could see them extending him. And most of the good young position players are there at least through 25. They need more pitching after keuchel and lynn are gone but hopefully kopech, Kelley and crochet can fill that void.

Maybe the sox can get marquez cheap if the add 20 millions:)

I wouldn't rule it out that he is the best hitter. Jose could regress to about a 120 wRC+ and anderson could Regress some too. I wouldn't project him for that but I wouldn't rule out a big rookie season either. Pete alonso was a lesser prospect and he started with a huge first season. Now vaughn obviously won't club 50 bombs but I wouldn't be surprised if he had a .280 BA and .360 OBP with 25 homers or so. Obviously I would hope that vaughn is not their best hitter which because that likely means Tim and Jose didn't regress much and robert and moncada improved. But I wouldn't complain about a 130 by vaughn either.

Keuchel had a .28 hr/9 rate. I do believe he can stay under 1 which is great these days but .3 is probably not attainable in a full season. I would be ok with a low 4s for keuchel, I think 4.4 is a bit high, maybe more like 4.1 or so.

I also think anderson is too low. He is a regression candidate but depth charts has him at .774 (from 886), 730 is just too low. Also I think lynn and giolito are too low, I'm thinking high 3s for lynn and mid 3s or even lower for giolito. Keuchel sounds about right but moncada I'm hoping for like low 800s.

How do those guys think they are getting away with that? An old saying is "the internet never forgets" so if they had any brain they would know this will come out at some point, especially if you send explicit stuff. Now in the past often women would shut up because if you talked you were blackmailed out of the game but in days of Me too more women come out fortunately. Those guys who abuse their power need to be weeded out.

He didn't take a year off but it is not clear how this alternate site thing affects players. On the one hand you face better pitchers than in the minors but you face the same pitchers again and again and also they might be less willing to for example throw a hitter inside because you don't want to break your teammates hand. I would not be against starting him in AA for 2 months (added benefit is super two status) and then bring him up if he rakes but I could also see him holding his own right away. The question of course is whether there is AA ball at all this year or when does it start, if milb doesn't start on time you almost have to bring him up quickly (i.e after 2 weeks to get the extra year) for his development