Dominikk85

To be fair if you discount for his all time bad 2011 dunn wasn't that bad. 2011: 60 2012: 115 2013: 107 2014: 114 Still of course not what you expected from the contract but 12-14 he was not terrible, if vaughn does that in his first year it would be fine.

I think vaughn has a bit less power than robert but he has better plate discipline and will strike out less. Best case could be a rookie season like rhys hoskins.

How good do you think vaughn can be in 2021 if he comes up rather early? Depth charts only has him for a 76 wrc+ (which is understandable considering he is soon 23, has never played above high A and did solid but but great there) but I think in this case we can trust traditional scouting more than the stats. But I also think we shouldn't be too optimistic, he won't need as much adjustment as some other hitters as his approach is very mature, but some struggles in the first season can happen. Is a 110 wRC+ a realistic goal for the first year? Would you go over or under with that? I would be fine with a 110 wRC+ but he also could have a big rookie season or struggle a bit more.

I think overall the team can be better as young guys will emerge or improve plus you have the additions of lynn and hendricks but I think you also shouldn't underrate the regression potential of abreu, anderson and keuchel. "A little" regression is probably an understatement, abreu likely won't be bad but he is in his mid 30s and a 120 wRC+ wouldn't be bad (but a huge drop against the 160+ this year). Anderson still has a very bad k to bb rate and is quite BABIP dependent and projections have him for a 20 point wRC+ drop. Maybe projection systems still underrate his babip skill and his power improved too but a 380 babip might still not stick. Projections also drop eloy about 10 points (depth charts has him for 40 homers but drops his babip from 340 to 328). Also projections have keuchel to more than double his ERA. Even if you are optimistic and have jose only for a 20 point regression instead of 40, Tim for 10 points and keuchel for 1.5 runs (3.5 instead of 2) you would still need a very big improvement to compensate for that. Not saying it is impossible, it could certainly happen but there is some stuff that needs to go right. In the rotation I think even 2 runs decline by keuchel could easily be compensated but if the projections for the hitters come true and Tim and jose lose 60 points combined that would essentially eat up all the gains from DH, RF and more.

I think that the sox overall are a better team than in 2020 but there are also some regression candidates. 2020 stats/2021 depth Charts projection Hitters wRC+ 1b jose 166/114 2b madrigal 114/97 ss Anderson 142/103 Of eloy 140/128 Pitcher era Keuchel 1.99/4.x That is some serious regression potential. On the other hand RF and DH should be much improved, moncada should be better and lynn is a big upgrade. In the pen heuer and marshall will probably regress some but hendricks is a big upgrade. Overall the offense will probably slightly worse because just everything clicked in 2020 for many guys and the upgrades in RF, DH and 3b are probably not quite enough to offset regressions of jose and Tim but it shouldn't be much worse. the pen I expect about the same to slightly better and the back end of the rotation should be a lot better.

The difference that vaughn and crochet also have the upside to be 3.5 war players while dunning is more considered like an average guy for the back of the rotation so it was consolidating depth for upside. The viability of this move obviously depends on how the sox pitching prospects are developing. The dunning move was banking on that behind him higher upside players like kopech, crochet, cease need some more time to develope but will eventually overtake him and make him the 6th guy and thus somewhat expendable. Now obviously if those guys all fail it could turn into a bad move but obviously we hope at least one of them becomes a regular, reliable starter and hopefully more than 1.

It is an older video but here you see Collins receiving. It doesn't look bad but it is pretty old school "stick" type of framing Compared to that here is the modern way where you start the glove below/outside the target and then catch it on the move back towards the center of the zone https://twitter.com/Elite_Catching/status/1163458821005684737?s=19

This is definitely something where the sox analytics/player dev is behind. They have not been very good at teaching guys to receive and on top of that omar narvaez was one of the worst framers and was turned into a plus framer after leaving the sox which is of course always a bad look. Couple years ago framing and receiving seemed intrinsic but it seems some teams did learn to teach framing with use of modern tech and analytics (cubs too with Contreras) and others did not. That definitely is something the sox need to get more modern and up to date with.

Yeah but the roster is also getting more expensive once players hit arb, so some buffer probably will be a good thing.

So should they trade away every cost controlled player? You have to find a happy medium between creating the strongest team for this year and keeping enough bullets for the years after that. Once you compete every year is big and you need to maximize it because you got 5-6 years at best usually but if you maximize the first 2 years and then run out of steam you need to be very lucky to win it right away.

I think that would be stupid. That would make the sox better in 2021 but the Sox really have to think about the next 5 years and those moves would cost a lot of money that would be missing for resigning giolito or extending other guys. The sox really need to maximize the next 5 years and trading away cost controlled almost mlb ready performers is probably not the smartest way, especially considering the limited budget the sox are likely going to have (the payroll will increase but probably not past like 10th to 12th in mlb or so).

I think a big package around crochet also could get it done. On the other hand kopech doesn't make that much sense for the rockies because he only has like one year of control more than marquez. The rockies really need full 6 years of control guys.

Tanking makes sense for the rockies also because the padres and dodgers are going to be very good the next 3-4 years. Thus it might make sense to go for prospects who are a couple years away.

It Depends on if they keep churning out aces. They traded so many pitchers (bauer, kluber, carrasco) and still had a strong rotation. Their pitching dev is certainly top notch, but still there might be some regression at some point.

I would Like to see more but the team is fine as long they add at least a decent innings eater to the back of the rotation to account for kopech innings limit and possible inconsistency

I don't think the sox are a fit here. They won't be willing to part with their mlb ready top3 (vaughn, kopech, crochet) and the rest of the system of the sox is just not high upside enough as a centerpiece. If the rockies don't get one of the top3 they at least need some very high upside young guys and they sox don't have much of that. I doubt the rockies want 22+yo to 40s and 45s.

Salary dump. To really rebuild they need to trade marquez and story too who can generate a haul

I don't think he will be a 3% walk guy going forward but more like 6-7%. Ichiro in his prime might be a ceiling for him. Ichiro didn't walk much but he had a good eye (mid 20s o swing in his prime) so he walked like 6% or so and hit about 8 homers a year. I don't think Nick will hit 350 like young ichiro (who had the advantage of being a lefty which allowed for quicker home to first times) but if madrigal could repeat the homer and walk rates of prime ichiro with maybe a 300-320 avg that would be very nice.

You can't give them much not only because of the contract but also the opt Outs. The opt outs mean if he is great he might opt out and if not you are stuck with the contract so you only get the downside of the big contract

But batting average is a skill and it is always going to be a big part of OBP. Ideally he should walk more but still about 70% of on base events are hits and a good BA is a good foundation for a high OBP. I mean joey gallo walks a ton but his obp still is sub 330 because of his BA. Madrigal will never walk a ton but I think he can be like a 6% walk guy and regularly post 360+ obps with an above 300 BA as a strong foundation.

It is good that Sets himself high Goals, even if he ends up at 2500 that is better than wanting to reach 1000 and get to 1500. Yeah it is unlikely he makes it to 3k (almost impossible to make it to 3k hits or 500 homers as a college player unless you are good until almost 40) but it is good that he tries to be the best player he can be.

I definitely could see a 5 win season for vaughn but I think it will be hard to get there consistently because votto and even moreso goldschmidt (who often is listed as a ceiling for vaughn) had been pretty good defenders and baserunners for a 1b while the reports on vaughn are essentially good instincts but like a 30 grade athlete. This means to get to Goldschmidts level he probably has to hit quite a bit better. Thus I see vaughn usually around in a 3 war range with a peak season or two at 5 war. I can see madrigal doing the same too though. Obviously not if he stays a 2 homer guy but I still see him developing into a 10 homer guy with excellent defense and that way he also could be like a 3 war guy peaking at 5.

I think their ceiling is pretty similar, both could be about 3.5 war players best case, they will just do it in a very different way.

I do not quite understand the criteria of law. He likes some high floor guys (vaughn) and others not (Madrigal). And when it comes to risky high ceiling guys he likes some and others not so much. Generally he seems to be against risky pitchers but then again he liked giolito when most saw him as a bust. Not sure what his criteria are, he is really much more intransperant then say longenhagen.

Even If crochet only has a 20% chance to start he is still a top100 because he has the potential to be an ace closer who produces like 2 war annually (which would be a 50fv but is more rated as a 60 by the industry due to the leverage and post season factor). Still him being a reliever is not an ideal outcome and you gotta try to make him a starter but that possiblity to be an hader/miller type of relief ace really raises his floor. Obviously that is not his absolute floor as he could get hurt but the ace reliever ceiling is definitely a nice bonus over guys like say stiever who can't pump a hundred and an 80 grade slider in relief.