Dominikk85

I don't think the sox are a fit here. They won't be willing to part with their mlb ready top3 (vaughn, kopech, crochet) and the rest of the system of the sox is just not high upside enough as a centerpiece. If the rockies don't get one of the top3 they at least need some very high upside young guys and they sox don't have much of that. I doubt the rockies want 22+yo to 40s and 45s.

Salary dump. To really rebuild they need to trade marquez and story too who can generate a haul

I don't think he will be a 3% walk guy going forward but more like 6-7%. Ichiro in his prime might be a ceiling for him. Ichiro didn't walk much but he had a good eye (mid 20s o swing in his prime) so he walked like 6% or so and hit about 8 homers a year. I don't think Nick will hit 350 like young ichiro (who had the advantage of being a lefty which allowed for quicker home to first times) but if madrigal could repeat the homer and walk rates of prime ichiro with maybe a 300-320 avg that would be very nice.

You can't give them much not only because of the contract but also the opt Outs. The opt outs mean if he is great he might opt out and if not you are stuck with the contract so you only get the downside of the big contract

But batting average is a skill and it is always going to be a big part of OBP. Ideally he should walk more but still about 70% of on base events are hits and a good BA is a good foundation for a high OBP. I mean joey gallo walks a ton but his obp still is sub 330 because of his BA. Madrigal will never walk a ton but I think he can be like a 6% walk guy and regularly post 360+ obps with an above 300 BA as a strong foundation.

It is good that Sets himself high Goals, even if he ends up at 2500 that is better than wanting to reach 1000 and get to 1500. Yeah it is unlikely he makes it to 3k (almost impossible to make it to 3k hits or 500 homers as a college player unless you are good until almost 40) but it is good that he tries to be the best player he can be.

I definitely could see a 5 win season for vaughn but I think it will be hard to get there consistently because votto and even moreso goldschmidt (who often is listed as a ceiling for vaughn) had been pretty good defenders and baserunners for a 1b while the reports on vaughn are essentially good instincts but like a 30 grade athlete. This means to get to Goldschmidts level he probably has to hit quite a bit better. Thus I see vaughn usually around in a 3 war range with a peak season or two at 5 war. I can see madrigal doing the same too though. Obviously not if he stays a 2 homer guy but I still see him developing into a 10 homer guy with excellent defense and that way he also could be like a 3 war guy peaking at 5.

I think their ceiling is pretty similar, both could be about 3.5 war players best case, they will just do it in a very different way.

I do not quite understand the criteria of law. He likes some high floor guys (vaughn) and others not (Madrigal). And when it comes to risky high ceiling guys he likes some and others not so much. Generally he seems to be against risky pitchers but then again he liked giolito when most saw him as a bust. Not sure what his criteria are, he is really much more intransperant then say longenhagen.

Even If crochet only has a 20% chance to start he is still a top100 because he has the potential to be an ace closer who produces like 2 war annually (which would be a 50fv but is more rated as a 60 by the industry due to the leverage and post season factor). Still him being a reliever is not an ideal outcome and you gotta try to make him a starter but that possiblity to be an hader/miller type of relief ace really raises his floor. Obviously that is not his absolute floor as he could get hurt but the ace reliever ceiling is definitely a nice bonus over guys like say stiever who can't pump a hundred and an 80 grade slider in relief.

Matz was terrible the last years.

I'm not sure that is a good idea. Imo the best thing for him is to become the best most powerful hitter he can be and then hope to get traded. Sheets was hurt tremendously by losing last milb season to covid and now he is almost 25 and the time is ticking. Had sheets hit .280 with 25 bombs in AAA last year he could probably be a starting 1b in a rebuilding team after a trade. But losing 2020 he now is an almost 25 yo 1b/DH type who hasn't played in a year and also hasn't played above AA. That he wasn't invited to the complex didn't help either but sox simply had too many 1b/DH types stacked there already (Collins, yermin, vaughn, even burger) so there was no room for him. Sheets really needs a huge season with 25-30 homers to bring himself back to the radar. But I'm not sure it makes sense to try becoming a below average LF, I think the smarter thing would have been to just try to develope as much power as possible and then get traded. Obviously if the weight loss doesn't hurt his power that is fine but if he hits 17 homers or less this year he is a non prospect. But overall the situation just sucks for him, he did everything right and finally developed some power in 2019 and then everything fell apart with covid.

I think it is not a bad deal. Grandal was cheaper but he also was 1.5 years older when he signed which of course is priced in. Both are really excellent catcher. Realmuto's profile is maybe a little sexier to fans because it is more BA and less walks but overall they are pretty comparable.

While I also think that schilling should get in as there are plenty of racists in the hall I wouldn't just call that political views, schilling is very right wing and has expressed especially intolerant views of trans people and called people who object gay slurs as "snowflakes". For many that has crossed some red lines.

I would put schilling in. Yeah he is an ass and his views of society are stupid and stuck in the 18th century but really there are tons of racists, wife beaters and general assholes in the HOF and schilling did neither commit a legal crime like murdering someone nor did he cheat on the field or gamble on baseball.

The Jays have a Monster offense but I wonder why they didn't upgrade SP more.

I think there could be big upside to have a well over 100 wins season. Obviously for this a lot has to Go right. The SP is not super deep and they can't really afford either of giolito and lynn go down. However the upside is really big. The lineup was one of the best in the AL last year and it could get even better with upgrades at DH (vaughn at some point) and RF. The pen also has the potential to be really good and the rotation is lacking depth but if everyone is healthy the top3 are quite good and if kopech can contribute 110 good innings and one of cease or lopez steps up this really could be a good rotation. I think this team does have the potential to have a season like the 2016 cubs. Obviously there is downside too (especially in the rotation if there is injury) and I would take 92 wins and the division but if everything clicks this could be a monster team.

I don't see AAA starting before MLB. They just assume mlb starts on time here and if mlb gets delayed AAA gets delayed accordingly.

Actually the trend is college rather than HS. In 1999 15 HS kids were drafted in the top 30 and 15 college kids. 2019 it was 10 HS and 20 college. Even more extreme is this in the first half of the first. 2019 5 out of the top15 were HS kids, 1999 10 of the top15 were HS kids. This of course fluctuates a little year to year but overall the trend is clearly going college in the top half of the first round and then going HS in the comp and second round.

I think the pirates this time want to go full tank. The last round they went for more mlb ready pieces like musgrove and moran to do kind of a quick retooling but it didn't work and now they go for younger, higher variance, higher upside guys because they Don't have a core to build around anymore and they can't afford to sign stars. Sheets and adolfo could contribute soon but they are older and don't have the upside the pirates really need now. Pirates are going through a long rebuild.

Voit was really good the last 3 years (186 ops+ in 18, 123 in 19 and 156 in 20). Abreu was better in 20 but only a solid but not spectacular 117-118 the years before. Voit is also 4 years younger so it is reasonable to believe he is a bit better in true talent at this point especially when weighing a shortened season less. Abreu is very good but I think when you consider the last 3 years and the projection for next season you can justify having voit ahead.

I think the main movements of the list are graduations and the draft except for the guys who got mlb time. You can't really consider reports from alternate site because teams varied a lot in their openness for the public and also it is not clear how much performance at the alternate site at all. I think the only way you should consider alternate site reports as in conjunction with next year, i.e if a player got positive reviews and he shows that in milb this season you might be inclined to believe the changes more quickly. This especially applies to Kelley. He got very good reviews from the alternate site but he needs to show that he can do it in games. But if he does it you might move him up quicker than you would if he had not shown it. So if Kelley is good next year in A ball he could be a top100 rather quickly.

Thanks. Many of them will graduate soon but Kelley and maybe also some other young guys could make the list by the end of the year if they perform in the minors.

Does anyone have the subscription to see were the sox players have landed? https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2021-top-100-prospects/

I can see the brewers trying to compete and then do a mini sell off at the deadline like the yankees did when they traded miller and chapman for torres, frazier and some others. I don't see them going in full rebuild, especially with yelichs contract going like 7 more years but I can see them trading hader and someone else for a couple close to ready mlb prospects