Dominikk85

I think the sox don't really need to make a big trade at the moment. They can sign an older number 5 starter in February on the cheap who is still looking for a contract, it doesn't make sense to ship out top prospects now. That is really a big advantage of the lynn deal, the sox are now in a position to wait.

Springer would have been nice to have but he wasn't really a need for the sox and the price was just too high. The sox can use that money better elsewhere (arb raises, extensions, other signings).

I agree. The Internet isn't a legal vacuum. People believe they can harass, threaten or sexually harass people just because it is the internet but you wouldn't just whip your dick out on a street and you also wouldn't tell a person to kill himself face to face. So why do people think in the internet this is covered by "freedom of speech"? I know it is relatively common today among young people who meet on tinder to send dick picks and vag picks but it is something else to send them later in a process of starting a casual sex relationship when it is clear that both sides are interested in such a relationship than sending them unsolicited after a few messages or sometimes even as a first message.

I'm fine with just a 4th starter now, a lefty bat would be a decent bonus.

Yeah totally. Sox fans are obsessed with the padres due to the tatis trade but the chance that the white sox and padres face off in the WS is probably more like 10%. Playoffs are a crap shoot and it could just as well be the dodgers, Mets or braves making the WS plus the sox need to make it there too. Sox fans should be way more worried about winning their division and then making it to the WS then about some NL team that they might or might not face.

When was the last time they didn't use the whole amount of bonus money ?

The DH is a bargaining chip, mlb doesn't want to give them the DH for free but they want the union to give something to get the DH.

I think long term kopech can still be a front line starter but the first year pitching in actual games after TJ command is often a bit rough creating HR and walk issues and thus less performance. I think thus he might be more of a 5th to 6th starter in 2021 and then maybe take a step forward in 22. It could also be better than that but that should be seen as a bonus and not expected as the first year after TJ is often not easy.

At some Point cruz will come down but people already said that in 2017, 2018,2019 and 2020, I think at a 1 yr deal it would be worth a gamble. That being said I would prefer a left handed bat who can also play another position. The sox have vaughn coming up and eloy needing some days at DH, thus I think they could use a bit of flexibility.

You can certainly criticise reinsdorf for what he did in the last 10 years but so far the sox have been the most active team in the majors so and only the padres and Mets only came anywhere near them in activity. Obviously it is easier from a lower starting point and the sox should be active but no reason to complain about this off season.

I would rather give Collins a chance until vaughn is up then using williams who has some pop but about a 5 to 1 k/bb ratio in his career. Williams has a bit of pop but his hit tool is terrible. Collins at least walks a lot even though his hit tool isn't great either.

Yes. Making the playoffs multiple years is the best way. Even the best team in baseball only has like a 25% chance to win the WS. Sometimes it can take a while like the dodgers or even the Nats (who had multiple first round losses) but eventually there is a good chance to win one if you make the playoffs 6 times in a 7 year window (not guaranteed either like you see with the yankees though who made the playoffs 5 times in 6 years and made no WS). There is of course also the other side when a fluky team immediately makes it or the giants who usually lost the division to the dodgers but still managed 3 WS. But generally the best approach is trying to have a 5-7 year window and hope that you get lucky once or twice I you are really lucky. Statistically a team who has a strong 6 year window should win about 1 WS (if you consider all 6 division winners have about the same chance to win the WS). The sox will also need to make some trades for injury replacement so it is good to keep some trade capital. I think the sox only need a 4th starter now and they are good to go. Sure getting laStella would be a nice luxury and bauer would make them a super team on par with the dodgers but they are already favored to win the division.

Yeah, that was just an extreme calculation. I think more realistic for him would be like -0.5 war. In 2019 miguel cabrera had -0.3 war with a 96 wrc+ and khris davis -1 with an 81 wrc+. Leury likely would be somewhere around that (90 wrc+ or so).

It depends on how long vaughn stays down. If it is just the two weeks for service time I'm fine with leury/Collins/yermin. If it is really two months or so that wouldn't be good of course (albeit I still think that Collins will be ok against LHP but maybe it is not the right time to try). But for two weeks, who cares? I mean if we assume vaughn is a 2 war DH and leury a minus 2 war DH (about the worst you can be) then it is just a third of a win over 2 weeks. But yeah, if you plan to keep vaughn down until super two deadline and not just the two weeks (like late may) then they should do something.

I wouldn't call vaughn punting the position, after all vaughn is the top 1b prospect in baseball and a consensus top 30 prospect. Obviously even a high floor, advanced prospect can take some time to adjust to the majors (even some all stars have been bad their 1 or 2 first seasons) but I think with vaughn's advanced and safe profile you can bank On him at least producing a 100-105 wrc+ with a chance for more. That wouldn't be fantastic at DH but also not a huge loss since few teams have an ortiz or cruz these days. Imo the chance that vaughn totally struggles and produces an 80 wrc+ like EE last year is rather slim, so I take the decent floor with upside to be a top3-4 DH in the AL right away.

Yeah He Just needs to work on his defense for 12 games, then he is ready:)

Imo the sox shouldn't sign a DH only that then clogs the roster like EE did last year. Getting a lefty bat is fine but only if he also can play somewhere else because the sox already have vaughn and also eloy can use some DH days when he is banged up again.

I like it. It is expensive and those deals can go wrong but he is an elite talent and 3 years are managable in case it goes wrong. This should allow the sox to keep crochet in the minors especially if they keep heuer.

In terms of actual contribution to wins bWAR is better because for game results actual runs score matter and two pitchers with a 4.5 era (one with 3.5 fip and one with 5.5 fip) will be worth exactly the same. However for predicting the future fWAR is better unless you have a 1000 plus inning sample on fip to era trends. Btw Bref does also adjust for team defense, it is not simply RA9 WAR but still luck can happen. For example aaron nola had 10 bWAR in 2018 which would make it an all time great season because he had a low RA with very bad team defense, so he kinda got a double benefit as he had a low babip plus the defense adjustment.

Soccer leagues in Europe have Relegation, 3 Last Teams get relegated to AAA and top AAA teams get promoted to the majors. But leagues are organized a bit differently there, as the league is not an independent entity but there is one big league system that spans recreational ball and pro ball and in theory an adult Sunday league team could make the highest league if they win their league 7 times in a row (which never happens in practice because higher level teams have more money and can afford better players). That also means that relegation can be very threating to a soccer org as your team revenue is much lower in a lower league. Some teams never recovered from relegation and no play semi pro level.

Yeah, it is never enough. However it also could be zero WS, just ask the yankees who are always good since the middle of the decade but never went all the way since 09.

Trump's dollar per WAR is pretty high though:). Sorry couldn't resist.

Did player salary increase more than regular people salary? Ruth only got like 80k in 1930 but that was when the average rent for a flat was like 50 dollars a month and the average salary was maybe 1000 bucks a year. https://ny.curbed.com/2013/11/21/10172014/what-would-50-in-1940-rent-a-new-yorker-today

Great that he was able to see a dodgers WS win in his last year on earth. Happy for him and Vin that they still got to see another WS after a 30+ year drought.

Overall prospect returns have collapsed a bit because teams now all know surplus value and how valuable cost controlled young players are. This means real "fleecings" are rare now because every idiot now can look at surplus value tables. Top prospects only get traded in very rare cases for cost controlled young superstars in these days. On top of this also the success of the cubs and astros with tanking hard lead to many teams trying that leading to an oversupply of talent and an increased demand for prospects. Simply not a lot of teams try to compete and many try to trade for prospects and this makes it hard to get good returns. The sox really got lucky they sold before the teams got super stingy with their prospects plus they had those good contracts. I think it is a good thing that prospect prizes increased because that is an incentive against tanking which sucks for the game (still good the sox did it, it was the only way for them to get good again).