Dominikk85

But you will also be hard pressed to find someone who maintains an era half a run worse than his FIP. Musgrove has thrown less than 500 innings in his career. There are systemic fip under and overperformers but they are rather rare and you can't say that with certainty until you have 1000+ innings. I would put way more stock into his FIP and k-bb rate than into era over an arbitrary amount of starts. In fact the highest negative FIP to era gap among active starters with 1000+ innings is Strasburg at .22. This likely means Musgroves .4 FIP to era gap is likely an artifact due to sample size and his FIP is a lot more predictive than his era.

Longenhagen said he completely discards information on prospects by teams as propaganda especially if those teams had a non public summer camp.

Yeah but 100m Is a nice payday already and he is still 3 years away from free agency and could get hurt. He might want to take the 100m guaranteed in the current economical climate plus at age 32 he could still get another good contract. Obviously if everything goes well it would be better to test free agency and get 250m but for this to happen he needs health and performance. He might prefer 100m guaranteed with a chance to make another 60m or so later. That way he loses 90m compared to best case but also makes 90+ m more compared to worst case.

Almost every pitcher has an injury history though. I mean just looking at the sox giolito, cease, kopech and lynn all had TJ. Which team doesn't have at least two starters who had TJ?

5.5 runs would bei by far the worst pitcher in Baseball. So who would You get then?

The question is what are the alternatives? With giolito, lynn, keuchel and cease plus kopech on an innings limit the sox need at least one starter and might need another one in case of injury. So the options are free agents bauer, paxton, quintana and tanaka and on the trade market musgrove, maybe someone from the cubs (hendricks?) And who else is there?

Isnt clevinger out for the year? But otherwise they certainly have a good rotation and really any rotation is volatile and injury prone, pitchers just get hurt, let the yankees lose cole or the sox lose giolito and they miss the playoffs too (unless they make a big trade including two of their top 4 prospects). This could happen to the padres but to any other team too.

I think the Sox could have gotten it done but it probably would have been more costly. Cubs are really collecting shortstops and the sox have mostly DHs and pitchers in their system. Still I doubt cubs would not have said no to cease and madrigal or so but that would have been a big overpay.

Offer giolito like 7/100 Offer vaughn something like the Evan white deal. Obviously if you leave him down 3 weeks he is 30 anyway at free agency and not super expensive to extend then but first basemen tend to get overpaid in arbitration because their traditional numbers are better than their war.

The padres really used the bad market for sellers. Yeah they gave up a lot of good talent but they really only gave up one of their top6 prospects to get two top pitchers. Sure one of the young guys they gave up could be the next tatis but they didn't give up a package like the sox got for sale or even just quintana but they really gave up one 60fv and a couple 40s to 45s albeit young ones with upside. This is really a good market to buy in trades because teams are willing to sell low to get rid of salary. Maybe the sox can also spin a trade without giving up madrigal, vaughn, kopech and crochet when they make a more quantity based package.

Davies was very good but he also is unlikely to sustain that, projections have Him at a high 4s era. I Think that is too pessimistic and he is a decent 5 starter but still era+ is not super telling in 60 games.

The Sox could have gotten darvish but darvish is 34 and has 3 years and like 60 mil left on his contract, that is some risk. Still a good get by the padres, also carratini who is a solid backup. Padres gave up a lot of depth in trades in the last 12 months but except for patino they kept the real top guys like Gore, campusamo and abrams. The system is thinner now of course but they got a stacked roster now and still some top prospects. The Sox are in a great position too though and the lynn trade really helped with that.

I think he would be. Obviously not a super cheap one (like 5/45 or so) but at a decent price he should want to do it because he still has some years to go to free agency and could get hurt. Offer him some semi Team friendly extension like 7/110 and he might be willing to take it

To be fair his fWAR is quite a bit higher,last 3 years 2.2, 3.3 and 1 (2.7 over full season). That is a 2.7 average over the last 3 seasons. It depends on how much you believe his fip underperformance is systemic (last 3 years 4.23 era and 3.7 fip). There is probably some skill involved but the pirates also were a pretty bad team defensively so that might have inflated his era a little too compared to his fip.

Not sure about that. Don't forget that darvish was very good but he also is 34 and has lots of years and millions left on the contract, that contract has big time negative surplus value. Cubs might be pretty happy to unload that contract because even if darvish is good next year his last years could get really ugly.

The question is whether the rays can teach meija to catch. His bat hasn't performed well either but it was a short sample and I guess it should be ok if he can catch. However at 3B or corner OF his bat doesn't really play due to his bad plate discipline. Recently some teams had success to teach receiving though especially since meija in contrast to Collins is a good athlete (with a cannon arm). Contreras and narvaez had been bad framers and now they are above average, so it can be possible to teach this especially to good athletes and the rays could be a team that has the player dev staff to teach receiving.

Meija was an absolute top Prospect but similar to Collins he now isn't really seen as a catcher anymore. There still is pop in the bad but k to bb rate is horrific and if he can't catch that is not so special. But maybe the rays believe they can teach him better receiving as unlike Collins he is an excellent athlete. If the rays can make meija a catcher they probably win that trade big time and if meija is a DH the deal is probably fair value.

Package is about like kopech or vaughn plus stiever. Sox could have matched that of course but sox don't really need to do that due to the lynn move. This is why I like the lynn move, might be a slight overpay but saves top prospects so kopech or cease have a year to emerge.

The sox situation is different though, they could of course use a two but a good 4 would be ok too as their top 3 are not extremely dominant but definitely above average. I mean giolito, Lynn, keuchel, musgrove/Quintana and cease/kopech would definitely be one of the better rotations in baseball. Not dodgers level of course but probably top 5 in the majors.

Musgrove is way better than lopez. Lopez good 2018 was fueled by massive babip luck. Musgrove has a 4.2 career fip (3.7 over the last 3 seasons) while musgrove has a 4.9 career fip (5 over the last 3). Lopez does have some upside and a good arm but apart from control issues he also doesn't really have a great pitch, by pVal at fangraphs really no pitch is positive. Obviously with better command and some axis adjustment that could change but the time is ticking for him.

Even with only a 100 wrc+ madrigal could be a 2.5 to 3 war guy. In 2018 for example ozzie albies had a 101 wrc+ and was worth 3.5 war. Albies was very good with the glove but not andrelton simmons level either (third in the league at 3b). So if madrigal can be a top3 defender at his position he could be a 3 war player at 2b or a 2.5 war if his defense is more middle of the pack. I still also could see him becoming like a 10 homer guy and producing a 110 wrc+

Stiever and rutherford would be a great price. Longenhagen has stiever a 40+ and rutherford a 40. I think he is a little too low on stiever and it should be more like 45 but still that would be a great price for a 28yo guy projected for like 3 war next season and 2022. The sox would immediately do that trade but I think it would require a better headliner. Madrigal would be too good though, I think it should be a 50 and a young higher upside 40+ or so. His surplus value would come out at about 40m or so which would require a 50 and a 45 as return for him but madrigal as a 55 alone would be worth about 45m so that would be too much.

Musgrove ist certainly way better than replacement level, last 3 years he was 2.2, 3 3 and 1 (2.7 full season) war which makes him a 3/4. However I wouldn't want to give up madrigal either for him as it would be similar player quality but only a third of the control years.

Even using that calculation average war still was 2.7 over the last 3 years. 1.3+4.8+(0.7*2.7)=8.2 8.2/3=2.7

Does this account for the shortened season? Moncada was worth 1.6 fWAR last year but prorated that would have been 4.2 war for a full season. Using that moncada averaged 4 war the last 3 seasons.