Dominikk85

Isnt clevinger out for the year? But otherwise they certainly have a good rotation and really any rotation is volatile and injury prone, pitchers just get hurt, let the yankees lose cole or the sox lose giolito and they miss the playoffs too (unless they make a big trade including two of their top 4 prospects). This could happen to the padres but to any other team too.

I think the Sox could have gotten it done but it probably would have been more costly. Cubs are really collecting shortstops and the sox have mostly DHs and pitchers in their system. Still I doubt cubs would not have said no to cease and madrigal or so but that would have been a big overpay.

Offer giolito like 7/100 Offer vaughn something like the Evan white deal. Obviously if you leave him down 3 weeks he is 30 anyway at free agency and not super expensive to extend then but first basemen tend to get overpaid in arbitration because their traditional numbers are better than their war.

The padres really used the bad market for sellers. Yeah they gave up a lot of good talent but they really only gave up one of their top6 prospects to get two top pitchers. Sure one of the young guys they gave up could be the next tatis but they didn't give up a package like the sox got for sale or even just quintana but they really gave up one 60fv and a couple 40s to 45s albeit young ones with upside. This is really a good market to buy in trades because teams are willing to sell low to get rid of salary. Maybe the sox can also spin a trade without giving up madrigal, vaughn, kopech and crochet when they make a more quantity based package.

Davies was very good but he also is unlikely to sustain that, projections have Him at a high 4s era. I Think that is too pessimistic and he is a decent 5 starter but still era+ is not super telling in 60 games.

The Sox could have gotten darvish but darvish is 34 and has 3 years and like 60 mil left on his contract, that is some risk. Still a good get by the padres, also carratini who is a solid backup. Padres gave up a lot of depth in trades in the last 12 months but except for patino they kept the real top guys like Gore, campusamo and abrams. The system is thinner now of course but they got a stacked roster now and still some top prospects. The Sox are in a great position too though and the lynn trade really helped with that.

I think he would be. Obviously not a super cheap one (like 5/45 or so) but at a decent price he should want to do it because he still has some years to go to free agency and could get hurt. Offer him some semi Team friendly extension like 7/110 and he might be willing to take it

To be fair his fWAR is quite a bit higher,last 3 years 2.2, 3.3 and 1 (2.7 over full season). That is a 2.7 average over the last 3 seasons. It depends on how much you believe his fip underperformance is systemic (last 3 years 4.23 era and 3.7 fip). There is probably some skill involved but the pirates also were a pretty bad team defensively so that might have inflated his era a little too compared to his fip.

Not sure about that. Don't forget that darvish was very good but he also is 34 and has lots of years and millions left on the contract, that contract has big time negative surplus value. Cubs might be pretty happy to unload that contract because even if darvish is good next year his last years could get really ugly.

The question is whether the rays can teach meija to catch. His bat hasn't performed well either but it was a short sample and I guess it should be ok if he can catch. However at 3B or corner OF his bat doesn't really play due to his bad plate discipline. Recently some teams had success to teach receiving though especially since meija in contrast to Collins is a good athlete (with a cannon arm). Contreras and narvaez had been bad framers and now they are above average, so it can be possible to teach this especially to good athletes and the rays could be a team that has the player dev staff to teach receiving.

Meija was an absolute top Prospect but similar to Collins he now isn't really seen as a catcher anymore. There still is pop in the bad but k to bb rate is horrific and if he can't catch that is not so special. But maybe the rays believe they can teach him better receiving as unlike Collins he is an excellent athlete. If the rays can make meija a catcher they probably win that trade big time and if meija is a DH the deal is probably fair value.

Package is about like kopech or vaughn plus stiever. Sox could have matched that of course but sox don't really need to do that due to the lynn move. This is why I like the lynn move, might be a slight overpay but saves top prospects so kopech or cease have a year to emerge.

The sox situation is different though, they could of course use a two but a good 4 would be ok too as their top 3 are not extremely dominant but definitely above average. I mean giolito, Lynn, keuchel, musgrove/Quintana and cease/kopech would definitely be one of the better rotations in baseball. Not dodgers level of course but probably top 5 in the majors.

Musgrove is way better than lopez. Lopez good 2018 was fueled by massive babip luck. Musgrove has a 4.2 career fip (3.7 over the last 3 seasons) while musgrove has a 4.9 career fip (5 over the last 3). Lopez does have some upside and a good arm but apart from control issues he also doesn't really have a great pitch, by pVal at fangraphs really no pitch is positive. Obviously with better command and some axis adjustment that could change but the time is ticking for him.

Even with only a 100 wrc+ madrigal could be a 2.5 to 3 war guy. In 2018 for example ozzie albies had a 101 wrc+ and was worth 3.5 war. Albies was very good with the glove but not andrelton simmons level either (third in the league at 3b). So if madrigal can be a top3 defender at his position he could be a 3 war player at 2b or a 2.5 war if his defense is more middle of the pack. I still also could see him becoming like a 10 homer guy and producing a 110 wrc+

Stiever and rutherford would be a great price. Longenhagen has stiever a 40+ and rutherford a 40. I think he is a little too low on stiever and it should be more like 45 but still that would be a great price for a 28yo guy projected for like 3 war next season and 2022. The sox would immediately do that trade but I think it would require a better headliner. Madrigal would be too good though, I think it should be a 50 and a young higher upside 40+ or so. His surplus value would come out at about 40m or so which would require a 50 and a 45 as return for him but madrigal as a 55 alone would be worth about 45m so that would be too much.

Musgrove ist certainly way better than replacement level, last 3 years he was 2.2, 3 3 and 1 (2.7 full season) war which makes him a 3/4. However I wouldn't want to give up madrigal either for him as it would be similar player quality but only a third of the control years.

Even using that calculation average war still was 2.7 over the last 3 years. 1.3+4.8+(0.7*2.7)=8.2 8.2/3=2.7

Does this account for the shortened season? Moncada was worth 1.6 fWAR last year but prorated that would have been 4.2 war for a full season. Using that moncada averaged 4 war the last 3 seasons.

He ist also very injury Prone. But for a two year deal he would be a pretty good get, he doesn't strike out much, walks quite a bit and also has gotten a bit of pop recently. Could definitely be done, slow cook vaughn a little and platoon him a little with outfield and infield and you can find ABs for him.

I think he means moose actually would be a negative compensation. He still can hit but overall his contract has negative value so including him would add salary to the package and thus lower the prospect price.

Yeah longenhagen did believe that madrigal would eventually grow into about 15 homer power which might not be in play anymore. But otoh if madrigal becomes an elite defender and baserunner he might be a 3 win player even with a 95-100 wrc+ bat.

Isnt 30 mil a bit light on madrigal? Longenhagen has him a 55 which is worth about 40-45m. The 30m would put him at more like a 50.

I guess how cheap castillo comes in prospects depends on how much salary you are willing to take on. I already said usually it would require a 60 tv and a 50fv to get castillo however you might get him for a very light package (say a 50fv and two 45s) if you are willing to take on 25-30 mil of salary. Math is a 60fv is worth about 60m and a 50 about 25m and a 45 about 7m. This means the 60 and 50 package is worth 85m and the 50,45,45 is worth about 40m. This means some difference has to be paid because obviously castillo is worth more than 40m.

This was asked in a fangraphs chat and they said the owners would make sure this would get punished very tough. This is also why that braves GM and the braves got punished more than the astros, owners are very strict against any rule violation that increases player player earnings because they don't want a precedent to be set that could cost owners money. The owners simply don't want an under the table bidding war. This is not about integrity and level playing field but about controlling owner expenses which is extremely important to owners. So if a team did it the owners would demand manfred to punish this.