Dominikk85

Doug was the director of sox scouting and the last years had more of an advisory role. He drafted some great players like sale, anderson and rodon but also a lot of big failures. Apparently this also was his last year and he will go into retirement this winter. He seems to be a good guy but there also was some stuff that was pretty shocking -he has heard about spin rate and EV and isn't totally opposed to it but he basically said he doesn't need the numbers and can see it with his eyes already. He also has very rudimentary and vague understanding of those analytical concepts -he said numbers guys always want to be right and if they are wrong they will later pull out a number that they still were right. -he said he needs to only see a player once and in fact often even not that saying usually seeing him walk and move in warm up is enough in many cases. On the good side he seems to be a great guy and you can also sense he has a big wealth of baseball knowledge but you can sense why the sox are behind if you listen to that, it seems to be very traditional and feel based. There seem to be numbers guys in the org but they don't necessarily have the final say in many cases.

I heard that there has been some friction between the astros owner and dusty (and also the GM). https://abc13.com/houston-astros-dusty-baker-jim-crane-manager-james-click/12290974/ Maybe both click and dusty are available next year even if they win it all:)

I'm not against an experienced manager but please not an oldhead who had been out of the game for years. Girardi fits the latter mold, he is not as old as TLR and should be more mentally fit than him but still he had been a TV commentator the last couple years before he was with the phillies this year. Of course there have been cases recently where it worked (baker, showalter) but overall I think the risk is pretty high, just like it is with young rookie managers too who often struggle the first 1 or two seasons before getting better (like gabe kapler for example in philly before he was very successful in SF). This is an experienced team about at the mid point of its competitive window so I think ideal would be an experienced manager who is not super old, ideally a guy under 55 with 5+ years experience of managing at the mlb level.

Ah I forgot that. Would suck to lose him with no compensation but priority should be keeping Eloy and Vaughn who have a better long term outlook. But of course that 120-130 wrc+ bat would need to be replaced if you just lose Jose and keep Eloy and Vaughn the lineup is weaker. But of course they could also get a really good outfield defender with a 110 wrc+, weaker lineup but same war effect as you get Eloy and Vaughn out of the outfield more

I think they should keep both eloy and vaughn. Abreu still was good and had a career high walk rate but power was at a career low and at some point he will decline. He might have one good year left but it could also go downhill fast like with konerko in his last year. One year abreu might have a bad April like he always does but unlike the other years never turn it around. Eloy of course is a risk but his value is at an all time low. If you want to trade him it would need to be after at least a somewhat healthy season (130 games) or you don't get enough. And vaughn has been a good hitter despite some flaws and might still get better if he lowers his chase rates and pulls the ball more. Btw does the qualifying offer still exist w the new cba? If it does I hope hahn Doesn't make the same mistake like he did with rodon and gives him the QO. At a 1 year deal abreu is still attractive and if he doesn't take it you get a pick.

The teams you mentioned do not have a manager opening.

Jerry is definitely a turn off for high performers but I think overall the sox are still an attractive destination as they have issues but they still have a good core in a very winnable divison and in the end that is what matters for a manager, if you win it will help your career. I don't think many other open destinations will be as attractive as the sox. Sure the rangers have a solid farm system but they are also in a division with the astros and the recently emerged mariners and they still lack pitching, getting past third will be hard in that division. And the tigers are just a mess in every regard, their new gm in scott harris might be good but fixing all the mess will probably take a couple years and maybe even a second tear down where they trade the young guys (probably not next season but if 2023 fails too they might). Not a great situation there either for a good manager who wants to win now.

The abreu decision is a tough one. He was the sox best player in 2022 but at some point he probably will start to decline plus vaughn in left was so bad that despite a solid 115 wrc+ he had 0 fWAR so he basically loses everything he gains with the bat with his glove. On the other hand losing abreu and plugging vaughn at first means you weaken the offense because even if vaughn can replicate most of abreus value at first you have to fill that LF spot with a productive player. Maybe colas could be that player but there is risk with him too (he is an extreme free swinger like many sox players).

I think hahn deserves another chance. Yeah some stuff didn't go well but he also had a lot of stuff going against him 1. A manager asleep at the wheel. A good manager alone should be able to add 1-3 wins 2. Bad health by the core hitters. If they can get 130+ games instead of 80-100 out of robert, tim, eloy moncada and grandal (plus better performance out of the latter two) that could add another 5-7 wins or so if not more. A new hitting coach maybe could add another 1-2 wins. I'm not saying everything went well but if you add let's say 8-12 wins that team would still be in the mix.

I don't think core players will or should be traded. The core is still good but depth is bad and only a little help underway from the minors (colas should be ready) so really what you have to hope for that you get more than 80-100 games (and a performance bounce back for some too) from the core hitters Robert, anderson, eloy, grandal, moncada. The rotation is still good, you just need enough production from the core hitters.

I think you give grandal another offseason and spring to get more healthy, he still has elite plate discipline and if his legs get healthy he might be able to drive the ball again. Sure it also could be the end but not reason to not give him the offseason and evaluate again next may or so. If he sucks in spring and the first 6 weeks of the season you can still release him but a good catcher isn't easy to find.

Not all injuries are equal, the guys I mentioned are basically all among the top 10 players on the roster. I know other teams have more injuries but who cares about the injury to a middle reliever or 6th starter? Sox as I mentioned lost 5 of their top7 hitters for 40-50% of the season and two of their top3 starters also for significant time. I don't care if the sox rosterspots 18-25 stayed more healthy than other teams, what matters is losing so much playing time that all their best hitters except for jose stayed below 100 games and two war. What's true is that the sox pen and back of the rotation stayed pretty healthy but the lineup was a mess.

Sox only have 3 hitters qualified for the batting title and so far that is the game count of some of the stars (probably not more than 4-5 will be added at max): Robert 98 Eloy 77 Tim 79 Moncada 97 (and reduced performance) Grandal 94 (and reduced performance) That's 5 of their projected top 7 hitters missing a huge chunk of time (40-50% of the season). Also injuries to giolito and lynn missing significant innings (both about 30 less than last season) but that is something you have to expect from pitchers of course. But the hitters should all have significantly more playing time next year, maybe not 145+ plus games but at least more than 130 or so (and maybe one of them missing 50 plus games).

Sure, some of them are injury prone, older or both but still they got injured more often than expected. You have to expect anderson, robert and some others to have a DL stint but not 3 or 4 stints or even more. Maybe you shouldn't project them for more than 130 games but if you only get 80-100 (and some of them like grandal with reduced performance due to injury too) that is almost impossible to compensate, no matter how good your depth is. Even the astros,braves or yankees would have struggled if 4 of their top 9 hitters miss more than 60 games, only the dodgers are able to cover such a loss.

There definitely have been mistakes: -not great on field management and coaching (TLR, menechino) -free agent signings and trade acquisitions not all working well (for example pollock) -general lack of activity by front office in off season and deadline -lack of minor league development showing up in organizational depth However still even with TLR, menechino and the lack of activity this team likely would have won 90 games in that weak ass division if not for dozens of DL stints to key players like lynn, Anderson, robert, moncada, grandal, eloy and others as the sox are a top heavy team who needs it's stars on the field (but even a team with better depth would have had a tough time with that many injuries). That means next season definitely should be better, especially if TLR will really retire like those rumors are saying. Sure, parts of the core are aging and at some point it will get tough due to the lack of minor league development (albeit it seems to get a little better, at least Montgomery looks like a future star) but I expect more health by those core players and the sox competing for the division again next year even without changes to the front office and huge new player acquisitions.

The question is how much a new GM could actually do. Kyle boddy wrote about that a lot on twitter, the challenge is not to hire a biomechanics or an analytics guy but to force the old school baseball lifers to listen to them, old school guys are actively fighting that stuff and sometimes delete emails by analytics without reading them. So the key is to force the coaches to use that stuff and if needed fire them. So if you hire a new GM and he wants to force the coaches to use more modern development and analytics stuff and they say no and run to jerry and then jerry supports those tenured guys over the new GM then that GM can't do much. This is an issue in many companies. A CEO has more power than an individual employee but if the middle management collaborates against a new CEO and says "this is how we always did it and we will continue like that" then often the new CEO can't do much and there won't be change. I have experienced that in a company and the newly brought in ceo quit after half a year because the middle management refused to change.

Btw madrigal had more power in college than kwan Kwan 0.089 iso, 3 career homerd Madrigal 0.141 iso, 8 career homers Madrigal was seen as a higher quality bat (30 points higher BA than kwan) with more impact potential.

Scouting misjudged madrigals potential to add power (or the sox to develope it). Eric longenhagen ultimately thought madrigal would be a high on base guy who would eventually hit 15 bombs but that never happened. Cleveland is also pretty good in developing some power. Their hitters still have below average power but their game is basically taking high contact no power guys and then optimizing their launch angle and batspeed so they hit like 10-15 homers (basically turning 30 grade power guys into 40 to 45s). The sox on the other hand don't change that much usually , their hitters essentially stay what they are in college.

Pythagorean record now 68-71 so at least they have not gotten unlucky. Of course now would be a good time for the offense to play up to their talent, last couple days looked encouraging.

I wonder if that is kinda a fake illness so that TLR has a graceful way out. The season is not entirely his fault as anderson, grandal, eloy and robert missed big parts of the season and the org has no offensive depth but maybe even jerry saw that tony doesn't have it anymore.

Eaton deal definitely was great even though giolito is struggling. Eaton produced 4 war in his first 2 years after the trade (and negative war since then) and giolito produced 12 war so far and dunning got them lance lynn who had been mostly good. The eaton deal was one of the greatest trades ever probably. The sale deal you can question but really you get a starter im kopech plus moncada had been an above average player until he fell apart unexpectedly. I think at the time that was a great return. The one thing I would hold against hahn was that he didn't trade away some guys before they became zero value guys. Maybe he overestimated the quality of the sox player dev and hoped they would get better but he probably could have traded guys like basabe, Rutherford and others for something (even if it is only a relief arm) before they lost all value. But on the other hand that also meant he kept the good guys like vaughn instead of trading them when their value was lower so I guess that is a good thing. The big issue was that the sox system produced so little depth outside the blue chip guys, they never really developed a 100k international guy or a 5th rounder into something so hahn didn't really have much to work with. But to his credit he did keep the right guys even if it meant keeping many of the wrong guys who then went on to zero value.

A lot of negative talk about hahn about his free agent signings and inaction but I think a positive thing have been his trades. He obviously did great in the selling trades for prospects during the rebuild and while some of the guys he traded for flopped none of the guys he gave up (after tatis) really seems to become a big league factor. Some examples: Lynn trade:dunning is not doing terrible at a 4 era but his fb velo is down to 89 and his k rate a lame 20%, he doesn't seem to be much and weems has a 5 era in AA. Mazara trade: Mazara failed but steele walker was DFAed twice since then Kimbrel trade: madrigal continued to get injured and doubled his k rate while still hitting for no power. Cesar hernandez trade: pilkington is looking pretty mediocre so far, maybe he is a 5th starter

Sure hahn is definitely to blame there too, if he believes he can do a better job in an org without jerry he should try to get out of the contract in chicago and try to find a job somewhere else, just giving up and doing the minimum isn't a great option either. On the other hand it is good money, a lot of job security and he is close to his hometown, maybe he is fine with the situation as it is, kinda like I would like to change some things but other places won't offer me the same security in case of non performance. Jerry has flaws but he is also loyal if you don't screw up totally so many sox employees might actually like that vs other orgs where you are quickly fired if stuff goes south.

I wonder if hahn has kinda given up a little because he is frustrated by Jerry. I'm sure hahn hated it when jerry hired larussa and also didn't give him much money to work with. Maybe hahn went to jerry in may to fire larussa and menechino and jerry said no and then hahn kinda lost motivation and just did nothing at the deadline. That does happen sometimes with employees when they face a frustrating situation in their company that they can't chance, they kinda emotionally detach themselves from the job and only do the absolute minimum to keep the job until they find another job opportunity. Hahn is a smart person, I'm sure he did want to have a smart modern manager, an improved analytics department and a modern data driven player dev but he probably faced too much resistance in the "bro company" and when jerry didn't support him in cleaning house and remove the guys who resist modernisation he probably just gave up and kinda only did the minimum as he saw his efforts as futile.

Eno sarris said that it is not easy to install a more new school data driven player dev and stat department because old school baseball people are going to fight back. Eno said basically you need to clean house if you do it and fire several guys who are resisting basically telling them my way or highway. Sox also tried to install some more modern coaches like this lisle guy a couple years ago but it didn't work, probably because he wasn't able to get through the old school coaches. If you want to install a more modern structure you can't just add a couple smart brains, there is going to be resistance and there needs to be a gm who supports the new guys and cleans house if necessary, basically telling the old guys to do it the new way or leave.