Dominikk85

Os gambled and lost it seems. They might be higher on kjerstadt but they can't have him at 2 with his strikeout to walk ratio (looks like a low obp slugger) and westburg is about neutral at his spot. This means they need to do a ton of damage on day two with their saved money.

The majority of good players are from warm weather states. There are occasionally good cold weather guys too of course but statistically much less often than from warm states.

The sox must give crochet at least a 30-40% chance to start to pick him there. If he is a closer that would be good too but as a ceiling that is not enough at 11 as there is also downside, Miller and hader were SP prospects at some point too.

Although longenhagen thinks it will be hassell

Probably veen to SD now

Kjerstadt to orioles. That could mean they are trying to get bitsko on a deal to their second pick.

It is not just first round 1Bs but 1Bs in general. Only one full time 1B was in the top30 in war last year (alonso). You could count muncy as a second one but he only played a third of his game at first. The bar to be a 5 war player as a 1b is super high, alonso hit 50 bombs and had 4.8 or so. If you are pujols or miggy that doesn't matter but few people are. But in the last years I think a few more high performance 1bs were drafted high, probably because they are seen as a pretty safe bet for 2-3 war if they are a 120 wrc+ guy.

Vaughn might be a slightly better hitter than tork but his is a bit undersized at 6 ft and his raw power is ok but not spectacular for a 1b (last year his top ev was 111 mph which would have ranked 100th+ in mlb last year). He still probably has the chance to hit 30+ Homers but he doesn't have the classic plus plus raw for a 1b but more above average power that plays up due to his good bat. That a 6 ft 1b with 55-60 raw is selected third overall shows how highly the industry rates his bat.

Nick gonzalez swing imo is fantastic, Short swing, good plane. It reminds me a bit of trout with the rapid deceleration of the turn and steep bat angle (bathed pointing down which is the modern style swing) Doesn't mean he will be great but the swing is really good.

Abel definitely would be risky pick, there are so many failed first round HS pitchers. However of course this is also how you get a kershaw, greinke or Bumgarner (I think they all were drafted like in the 7-10 range overall of the draft) so if it works it also could be really good.

Everyone wants BPA, the question is who that is.

Meyer would be great but there is really almost no chance he is around back then, his floor is probably 7 or 8 and more likely 5 or 6. If he falls to 11 he would be a no brainer over everyone left at this spot (assuming Tork, lacy, Martin, Gonzalez and veen are gone).

At 11 you are not getting the complete package anyway. With hitters you either have high ops college performers with position issues (burger, collins), polished hitters with limited upside or high potential hitters with swing, contact or chase issues. And with pitchers you either get good stuff with injury or command issues or polished pitchers with less upside. You have to pick one

Usually that comes with a velo bump. Shane bieber was like that, polished guy with great control and all of a sudden he threw 94 instead of 90 and became a star. Nola also increased his velo. I think you can only take detmers there if you believe he has more velo in the tank. If he could add 2-3 mph with stuff like weighted balls (not sure if sox pitching dev does driveline) he could be a different guy. But if he sticks at low 90s or even regresses a little which sometimes happens under the tougher pro schedule it could also just be a 5 or even long relief.

Honestly not a big fan of the hassel profile (advanced HS bat with good swing but RF profile but ok but not plus power). Sure that player could work but even an advanced HS bat is still more risky than a college bat and if you dont get the extra tools why take that risk? I mean if the bat takes a little step back there is not much left (see Mickey moniak who was exactly that type). Not saying there is no ceiling but the bat is the most volatile thing to project from HS guy and corner profile combined with ok but not special pop is not enough for me, I can get that safer from a college bat. I would prefer either a clear up the middle profile or potential plus power from a HS guy.

I Think most of the top2 round HS guys will sign and they guys who can't go to juco or college. Sure it is tougher this year but the 21 (due to juco hs guys and good college seniors who rather get their degree than take 20k) and 23 draft (hs guys going 4 yrs college) are going to be absolutely loaded in talent so there is a lot of competition and many might take 80 cents on the dollar now. Obviously no serious hs prospect is going to sign for 20k.

The problem is that behind veen who likely is gone this is a rather weak HS class unlike last year which was very strong. Howard is not bad but the swing needs some work, especially the lower body. Crow Armstrong is not bad either but probably not a top15 talent.

New Longenhagen Chat https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-6-5-2020/

Elias and sig have done this a few times already with the Astros, for example 2012 when they got McCullers with their second pick or when they got bregman and tucker.

Why is he doing that? Even if he is sure to go to college why not just dangle a super high number out there and if you don't get it just don't sign? What can he gain by removing himself from the draft? He could also hint by his agent 3.5m or bust and if he doesn't get it just not sign.

Yeah, there are many mlb players with an arm bar but usually they tend to be 240 hitters with power like frazier. Griffey obviously was an exception but I would prefer no arm bar. It is also not an easy thing to change, I have been working with a HS kid and he has a hard time correcting that despite working on it a lot.

I think longenhagen sees him as more of a DH.

Are you worried about that diabetes thing with Mitchell?

Yes. Back then you could punt the 4 to 5 pick and still get legitimate prospects in the 6th and 7th round but with 5 rounds you want 5 legitimate prospects because you don't know who you can get later for 20k

Interesting that most mocks now have the sox taking a college hitter when many speculations where they would go pitcher. But the speculation is that the attractive pitchers (and HS bats) are already gone so a college hitter which is the strength of this draft could be best value. If one of the top pitchers or hs bats falls that could change of course but it seems the sox don't view the remaining pitchers and HS bats at 11 as very attractive.