Dominikk85

Abel definitely would be risky pick, there are so many failed first round HS pitchers. However of course this is also how you get a kershaw, greinke or Bumgarner (I think they all were drafted like in the 7-10 range overall of the draft) so if it works it also could be really good.

Everyone wants BPA, the question is who that is.

Meyer would be great but there is really almost no chance he is around back then, his floor is probably 7 or 8 and more likely 5 or 6. If he falls to 11 he would be a no brainer over everyone left at this spot (assuming Tork, lacy, Martin, Gonzalez and veen are gone).

At 11 you are not getting the complete package anyway. With hitters you either have high ops college performers with position issues (burger, collins), polished hitters with limited upside or high potential hitters with swing, contact or chase issues. And with pitchers you either get good stuff with injury or command issues or polished pitchers with less upside. You have to pick one

Usually that comes with a velo bump. Shane bieber was like that, polished guy with great control and all of a sudden he threw 94 instead of 90 and became a star. Nola also increased his velo. I think you can only take detmers there if you believe he has more velo in the tank. If he could add 2-3 mph with stuff like weighted balls (not sure if sox pitching dev does driveline) he could be a different guy. But if he sticks at low 90s or even regresses a little which sometimes happens under the tougher pro schedule it could also just be a 5 or even long relief.

Honestly not a big fan of the hassel profile (advanced HS bat with good swing but RF profile but ok but not plus power). Sure that player could work but even an advanced HS bat is still more risky than a college bat and if you dont get the extra tools why take that risk? I mean if the bat takes a little step back there is not much left (see Mickey moniak who was exactly that type). Not saying there is no ceiling but the bat is the most volatile thing to project from HS guy and corner profile combined with ok but not special pop is not enough for me, I can get that safer from a college bat. I would prefer either a clear up the middle profile or potential plus power from a HS guy.

I Think most of the top2 round HS guys will sign and they guys who can't go to juco or college. Sure it is tougher this year but the 21 (due to juco hs guys and good college seniors who rather get their degree than take 20k) and 23 draft (hs guys going 4 yrs college) are going to be absolutely loaded in talent so there is a lot of competition and many might take 80 cents on the dollar now. Obviously no serious hs prospect is going to sign for 20k.

The problem is that behind veen who likely is gone this is a rather weak HS class unlike last year which was very strong. Howard is not bad but the swing needs some work, especially the lower body. Crow Armstrong is not bad either but probably not a top15 talent.

New Longenhagen Chat https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-chat-6-5-2020/

Elias and sig have done this a few times already with the Astros, for example 2012 when they got McCullers with their second pick or when they got bregman and tucker.

Why is he doing that? Even if he is sure to go to college why not just dangle a super high number out there and if you don't get it just don't sign? What can he gain by removing himself from the draft? He could also hint by his agent 3.5m or bust and if he doesn't get it just not sign.

Yeah, there are many mlb players with an arm bar but usually they tend to be 240 hitters with power like frazier. Griffey obviously was an exception but I would prefer no arm bar. It is also not an easy thing to change, I have been working with a HS kid and he has a hard time correcting that despite working on it a lot.

I think longenhagen sees him as more of a DH.

Are you worried about that diabetes thing with Mitchell?

Yes. Back then you could punt the 4 to 5 pick and still get legitimate prospects in the 6th and 7th round but with 5 rounds you want 5 legitimate prospects because you don't know who you can get later for 20k

Interesting that most mocks now have the sox taking a college hitter when many speculations where they would go pitcher. But the speculation is that the attractive pitchers (and HS bats) are already gone so a college hitter which is the strength of this draft could be best value. If one of the top pitchers or hs bats falls that could change of course but it seems the sox don't view the remaining pitchers and HS bats at 11 as very attractive.

Longenhagen mock draft https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-mock-draft-mach-one/ He has the sox getting Garrett Mitchell. Mitchell has hit for a very high average in college but not much game power. Longenhagen has noted though that he actually has big power but a swing which doesn't let him get to it in games and with a swing and approach change he could trade some average for power and hit for good game power. The sox don't have a great track record in changing swings but then again they did get more progressive the last years and hired guys like Johansson and lisle (who is gone again but that they tried showed the intention).

I'm fine with having Vaughn. He probably is not going to hit 45 Homers but probably hits 290 with 30 bombs a year, a bit like Goldschmidt (albeit with less speed on the bases and a bit worse defensively).

Crochet posted a video hitting 100 mph in a bullpen session. Probably doesn't mean much but at least his arm seems to be in good shape

Probably torkelson because he will go 1 and vaughn was 3. Longenhagen said vaughn has better contact ability and plate discipline though while torkelson clearly has more raw power.

He doesn't walk, has no power and strikes out quite a bit. Early to give up on a HS guy but he has shown absolutely nothing and they probably just don't see it.

Normally I would agree but does that make sense if there is no MILB this year? Where does he play then?

I think this is not the year to be smart in the draft, especially for a team like the sox who is improving in that regard but not elite in the analytics stuff like the Dodgers, Rays or astros. Just get the best players in the first two rounds and then see what you can get later.

Seniors have less leverage but the very top ones still get paid decently. Mark Appel still got 6m after going back to school after his jr year. Sure they lose some leverage but a 1M talent going in the 6th round would still get like 500k next year as a senior in a 20 round draft. The reason seniors don't get paid is partially the leverage but also that most of them are just not really good because if they could have gotten 500k after jr year they would have taken it. Here are some seniors who got decent bonuses: -mark appel 6M -kyle funkhouser 750k -andrew Suarez 1m

Yeah I agree. Having a good catcher is a plus but since a catcher usually can only catch for like 450 PAs his offensive impact is a bit limited and thus teams often just except bad catcher hitting, get some guys with good gloves and get offense elsewhere. Sure if you get a guy like Grandal or realmuto that is good but otherwise a good fielder with a 90 wrc+ is fine too.