Dominikk85

But only if you get the good genes, otherwise you might get Nick's power and mercedes speed:)

The Problem is whether you believe Mercedes can play catcher (even as a backup) or any other position than DH. Mercedes is likely a better hitter than some guys on the sox roster but is his bat good enough to play at DH when they already have EE, abreu, Collins and probably vaughn in the summer to fall? Even with 26 men you might not want to carry a second or third DH. I do think mercdes could post like a 100-105 wRC+ which is better than several guys on the roster but for a DH that is pretty meh.

Probably laziness by the writers who weren't willing to dig in deeper into the non top10 guys and just listed some guys from last year's list to full the back parts of the list.

Madrigal also has some mechanical reserves in his swing. He has very little load in his swing for example. Most mlb hitters coil the hips and shoulders in a couple degrees as they stride but nick basically just lifts his knee and goes straight forward. This is part of his contact ability probably as the swing is very direct and quick and a big coiling up can cost you some contact but a little bit of coiling up could give him a bit more batspeed and pop.

The power is a concern but yolmer has a 13% k-bb rate and madrigal had a -6% k-bb rate. He won't walk 9% but if he strikes out 7% and walks 6% in the majors which I think is realistic that is still a huge difference to yolmer and hamiltom who strike out a lot more. K-bb rate makes a big difference. Still power is important but he only needs a 300 babip to hit 300 while yolmer needs a 340 babip to hit 300. I also think he can add some strength and become a 10-12 hr guy or so and then he is like a 110 wrc+ guy but even if he is a 4 homer guy he still is like a 90 wrc+ guy I think.

Pop up rate, line drive rate and exit velocity plays a role too. And also running speed a little.

Overall career, can't predict the rest

I think that can be a fun little game we can dig out in 10 years in case this forum or the world still exists then. My guesses: Giolito: 30 Moncada: 50 Robert: 60 Vaughn: 30 Madrigal: 25 Anderson: 30 Kopech:20

Does anyone know if madrigal tried to add a couple pounds this off season? He doesn't have the frame to carry that much extra weight well but 10-15 pounds more than last season would probably help him.

Not every top100 is created equal. That is the beauty of the FV system. 10 years ago anyone hoped any top100 must become a star but now we can differentiate that better. For a top15 prospect (60 fv) 17 career war is a disappointment but for a 70-100 ranked guy 17 war is a decent result. Basically you expect a 50 fv to average 2 war in his prime years (with sone fluctuation of course) while you expect a top15 prospect to be a star and average like 4 war in their prime.

Everyone is important and anything can happen and the floor for any Pitcher is TJ and season end but IMO the biggest thing is giolito repeating. He has tremendous upside but don't forget that he was the worst starter in baseball in 2018 so there is some risk for regression. If he proves that the changes he made stick and he is a 5+ WAR ace (or at least 4) that would be huge for the sox. They also need Keuchel to be good but really with him 190 innings with a 4 era would be fine with that offense. A lopez breakout would be a nice bonus that could make them a division winner but giolito is really a key who alone could make the difference between post season and no post season.

I Think he definitely is a very good hitter but I don't think he has huge power. His max EV according to fangraphs last year was 111 which is ok but not outstanding (ranked about 110th in mlb last year). I still think he can hit 30+ bombs due to his bat control but he is not the classic 80 raw 1b like pete alonso or joey gallo.

Btw telling a bad pitch recognition thing to be more patient is the worst thing you can do, bad pitch recognition guys need to swing more to get the zone swing minus outside zone swing gap as large as possible. If you tell a bad eye hitter to be patient he will take just as many meatballs as balls. The cubs tried that with baez and it failed and he got better when he decided to swing more. Of course good plate disciple is better but only if actual pitch recognition gets better.

Walks are not really an approach thing and it actually is good not trying to walk. In the 2000s many teams tried to teach patience and going deep into the count and it failed. Now we know walks have nothing to do with patience. No player above little league tries to chase balls and even many little league coaches tell their kids to wait for a fat one with less than two strikes, this is nothing advanced. It is all about pitch recognition, a player has to decide about halfway home to swing so it is about extrapolating the pitch flight. TA doesn't not walk because of his approach but because but because he is bad at extrapolating pitch flight. It absolutely makes no sense to change his approach, he knows it is better to hit fat pitches. What you would need to do is change his pitch recognition. There are electronic systems for this (pitch is shown on a screen and blacks out halfway home and then you need to say pitch type and ball or strike ) but this is in an infant stage and success of it is still unclear. Can't hurt to try it though.

Where are those numbers from?

How is that true? Injury issue: Burger never had injury issues in college,you can't blame the sox at all for not knowing Offensive performance: Burger hit 325+ every year of his college career. His final year he hit 328 with 22 homers and more walks than Ks, bottom line was a 1100 ops. He clearly was considered one of the best and most advanced college hitters. Evan white and pavin smith were highly drafted 1b men that year and burger hit better than them in college. Position and defense: This one is a legit concern. However his bat would have projected to play at first too, maybe not at a star level but at an average regular level. You can blame the sox for drafting so many defensively limited guys (basically 3 1b/DH guys in a row with burger, collins and Vaughn) but you absolutely can't blame the sox for not predicting his injuries and there was nothing wrong with his projection as a hitter either.

Definitely a good thing they are catching up albeit 2 years earlier when the system was at it's highest point would have been better of course. But better late than never.

I would take his steamer projection (.279/.328/.519 with 33 homers) albeit I think he could hit a few more bombs.

Yankees are way to low at 9 too. Imo they are only behind the astros and dodgers. Twins are too low to and sox should be top10.

I have no problem with a woman there but I think the double role with the mets is problematic as she is biased there. If she was just an advisor it might be ok, but as I understand she works there more like in a full time capacity.

Also senzel is extremely injury prone. Guy can never stay healthy and that might limit his value.

Sox definitely have a good chance. Twins have a monster line up but sox lineup is pretty good too and rotation should be better. There is uncertainty in the sox rotation but even more in the twins rotation

70 is better than all star. Fg has a 65 as an all star, 70 is a guy Who averages 5 war in their Prime. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/ There are many guys who can get to 5 war but AVERAGING 5 war over 4-5 years is quite rare. To be a true 70 you need to have at least like 22 war in 5 years (a bad year is ok but most years must be 5 or close on average).

Vlad and Franco also got 70 fv grades. Fangraphs is a bit stingier with 70s and grades in general but I like that about them. Sure fans prefer hype but it is good they are a bit more critical even if they are a bit low on some (for example 65 on acuna). Robert could be a 70 but that 20% k-bb% is a certain risk. He still will be good due to defense and power but is he a 70 when he has a 310 opb or so? Of course robert could tighten up that plate skill a little too and then he is super good but there is at least some risk. I think the 55 is too low though but 70 imo is a bit high.

70 individual tool grades or overall fv grade? Fangraphs has given 70 fv grades but it is rare of course.