Dominikk85

Rutschman is a sure bet at one, at fangraphs they even said he is like the best number 1 in years. The witt, Vaughn, abrams, bleday group is good too but at fg they said they see them behind mize who was first last year and rutschman clearly ahead so there really is a whole tier between rutschman and the other 4-5. Because of this I don't think rutschman slips and if he slips the royals will take him even though they love witt.

Anyone was suprised how little power madrigal has shown so far. All the prospect guys saw him as a 10-12 homer guy who might grow into 20 hr power like altuve did. That would be a star player with his hit tool. Nobody expected him to only hit one homer in his first 350 plate appearances. Hopefully he can turn it on this summer and hits 7-8 homers the rest of the way. As a confirmation here is longenhagen talking about him as first overall pick and predicting 12-15 homers per year. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/could-a-5-foot-8-second-baseman-be-drafted-first-overall/ Nobody in the industry saw madrigal as an overdraft at 4.

Abreu has little trade value because he is 33 and quite expensive. If abreu was 24 and cost controlled he would have a pretty good trade value. And if Vaughn would become as good as abreu that would be an excellent outcome. Abreu has hit 293 averaging 32 homers that is pretty much a best case scenario for Vaughn and a top5 1b in the AL.

I agree, good day. The Performance of monacada, Anderson, giolito, eloy and lopez is the only perfomance of guys on the big club I care about,everyone else is just keeping the seat warm for the minor leaguers. Of course I wouldn't mind a breakout of a fringe prospect but if I have to choose I would pick the top talents performing even if the team loses more games.

Alonso is massively unlucky. He has a good walk to K ratio, above average exit velo, good groundball rate but the hits are not coming. wOBA: .269 xWOBA: .330 (league average is .316) Babip: .195 This should improve a lot in the second half

This is actually not quite true. A bunt can increase the chance to score a run what it does is decreasing the total run expectancy in that inning. This has been established already in the 80s by early sabermetrics guys like bill James with the bases outs matrix. bunting uaually is bad, exceptions are a super terrible hitter like an nl pitcher or situations were only one run counts (home game, tied game last inning i.e a walkoff situation.

I would be fine with vaughn. Sure there is a risk he only becomes a CJ cron instead of a paul goldschmidt (like kiley said in the chat) but if you really get a new paul konerko for the next decade that would be great. Sure Abrams could get to more power and become a 5 war shortstop and that is likely better than vaughn but there is no guatantee it works out. I'm fine either way, either you get a pretty sure bet to have an above average regular 1b or you get a guy with a really high ceiling. In the end it is probably a good thing that the 2-5 guys are projected to be so similar, in the end it will also be about luck who will be the best.

We don't hear about rutschman because he is basically the consensus number 1 pick and not likely to get past the first overall pick. Fg basically sees rutschman a whole grade above anyone else and then 4 -5 guys about the same (vaughn, witt, Abrams, bleday). This doesn't mean rutschman ist guaranteed to be the best player of the draft but with the current information he seems to be in a tier of his own.

All those injuries are a danger for the success of the rebuild. Some injuries happen but this is just too much.

Have the prospect guys been right to not rank him in the top100 after his big year? Was he just a 22 yo advanced college bat dominating A ball? So far he is doing very bad this year. Interestingly his k to bb rate is virtually the same, it is just his power and babip being down. Now babip should come back up and power too to some degree but the 354 from last year still probably weren't sustainable. If he is a 300 hitter with a 190 ISO he is a good prospect but if it is 270 with a 150 ISO it is not so great. I still think he at least can become a 4th outfielder but last years performance was probably at the limit.

The fg guys compared witt with Trevor story. Lots of Ks and Lowish average but very good pop and some walks too

Meant 280 Why does my name show my email? I used to have a different nickname (germansock)

He is having a good season with a .280 average and 8 homers so far. Only is a rental but could help a contender, if he is healthy he is still an elite 1b hitter. I think the sox should try to trade him and get a return, ideally eating a few mil of his salary to get a better return. They can still resign him to a 2 or 3 year deal if they trade him just like the yanks did with chapman trading him to the cubs for torres and then resigning him. Of course the sox would not get a comp pick like that but they also don't risk him taking the QO and they should get at least a similar return to a QO pick (about a 45 fv prospect).

It is still too many walks but the uptick in Ks is encouraging, his k-bb rate improved from an abysmal sub 5% to an above average 17%. He doesn't have to have super low walks but under 10% would be nice.

Maybe madrigal can become a player like jeff McNeil. Ideally of course he improves power and patience and becomes a ben zobrist type.

Depends on whether he finally can play 100+ games. If he plays 120 games and performs he likely will be at least top15 if not top10. But if he has another sub 60 game season with injuries it is hard to rank him that high. Really all about health for him.

To be fair that probably is a 95th percentile outcome. Using the 60 hit 60 power from fangraphs he would project for about a 120 ops+ or so in his prime. That is very good of course but Donaldson was an mvp level hitter. If vaughn turns out into a 120-130 ops+ hitter with slightly below average defense he would be a top10 1b in the majors and that is fine. Anything more than that can happen but should be seen as a bonus.

There are plenty good sub 6 foot players. It is just a little unusual for a 1b, most 1b players are 6"2+. Top war 1b last year 1. Freeman 6"5 2. goldy 6"3 3. Carpenter 6"3 4. Bellinger 6"4 5.votto 6"2 However just because the normal 1b prospect is 6"3 he doesn't have to fail. Prince fielder is the same size and he was really good before he was hurt.

Doing much better this year batting 365 with 17% Ks this year. No homers yet but still a nice line. Longenhagen kinda predicted that saying he is an advanced college hitter who had that terrible start last year due to injury and thus gave him a 40+ rating. Good choice to let him repeat A ball imo but I think they should soon call him up to AA since he is already turning 23 this summer and seems to handle A ball now which of course is not a huge challenge for a good, polished college bat. I think 2-3 more good weeks at A ball and he should be up in AA.

The cubs did a great job building their team the last years but their public relations the last 3 years have been a disaster: -trading for abuser Chapman -nazi grampa emails -the Russell situation and its handling Can't take away from wit they did on the field but they need to control their public relations a bit better.

I agree witt is more than two years away but moniak is not the same prospect as witt is. Moniak was quite a surprise and there were always questions about his power and tools. Reason he was so high he was supposed to have a very advanced hit tool for a hs guy and had a chance to stay at center. I'm not a fan of picking an advanced, polished hs bat with middling tools, if you want that you can just as well pick a college guy giving you more data and certainty on the player.

Cubs were quite solid with hitters (albeit their real success stories were mostly high picks) but absolutely dismal with pitchers. Cubs pitcher dev in the last 5 years was right up there with the red sox and orioles in badness.

K rate basically doesn't matter, a K is just an out. However more Ks mean you need to produce more with the remaining batted balls because a K is not only a missed chance for a groundout but also for a single, double, walk or homer. League average K rate is a little over 20% in these days but 30% can work too if you hit 35 homers. I developed a formula using K, BB rate and ISO to judge players. https://community.fangraphs.com/introducing-k-bb-iso/ Basically it means the higher your iso and walk rate is the more Ks you can afford. Lower to medium powered guys with a sub 170 iso better have a K-bb rate of under 12 or so while guys with a 250 iso can be productive with a high teens % K-bb. Above 20% it is getting tricky unless you have true 80 grade game power, in that case even 30 homers might not be enough to be a much about league average hitter.

Kiley said if one of Vaughn or rutschman is available the sox will take them but if they go 1,2 lodolo could be in play. I think the sox are not keen to take a HS guy.

But i can also understand mlb of wanting a zero tolerance policy for the word so a white player can't see this as an encouragement.