Dominikk85

I agree. Using the word yourself is different. Many fat people for example make fat jokes about themselves to take away the power of mobbers. Still I'm no fan of this strategy of for example fat or disabled people to use that strategy. It works of course but you also marginalize yourself a little doing it. I understand the intention of taking away the power of racists but the n word is a white racist creation and it would be better if it dissapears altogether.

Theo is a good GM but the last 3 years his free agent signings had been an utter disaster. First years were pretty good (lester, zobrist) but the last years had been terrible: -heyward: 184M, has been one of the worst hitters in the majors since -darvish: 126M, injured, terrible -chatwood: 38m, utter disaster -morrow: 21m, injured all the time I would say this is almost worse than the 40 busted small signings of the sox who were not expected to do much anyway. I'm not saying theo did a bad job, he always will be the guy who brought a WS to the cubs but this is 350m wasted on 4 players who barely produced anything. That the cubs are still good despite wasting 350m shows how good their core is but this is still hunting them nowadays, they might win their division again but they went from a juggernaut to a team projected for 86 wins. The Cubs are still very good and even might win another WS but they went from an all time great dynasty to a merely quite good team mostly due to whiffing on those two huge contracts.

Pretty terrible start to the season. In two starts he has more walks than Ks and gave up a boatload of homers. I still think there is K upside though. His slider actually has a good swing and miss rate and if he ramped it up it could cause more Ks albeit probably won't lower the walks. But of course at his age I understand they want to develope him into a complete pitcher and not into a 40% slider guy like corbin although ultimately that might be his future even if it limits him to be a 5 inning guy.

I agree, nobody doubts his power. If he was a 45 power guy maybe you could doubt him but all the publications have him at like 70 power. His K rate is currently a bit high at 32% (compensated by an unsustainable babip) but that is normal when you first face mlb pitching, he was always 17-20% in the minors and should be about 20-22 in the majors after some adjustment.

I love lodolo's motion and his stats are great but just like with bishop I don't like that he only broke out this year. His freshman and soph year he wasn't bad but really not that special. Are those gains sustainable?

I think you can risk drafting a pitcher that high but only if he is a top talent. No issue taking a guy like mize this year at 3 because the ceiling for a pitcher is worth the extra risk. But lodolo while a good prospect probably only has like a realistic ceiling of a 3 starter. Now vaughn doesn't have a much higher ceiling but doesn't come with the same risk. Imo extra risk needs to be balanced by an extra high ceiling. For example I don't like to take a polished HS hitter with middling tools, if you want that take a college guy because the risk is lower for the same upside. Same applies IMO to a pitcher, if you take a pitcher top3 the upside needs to be off the charts.

Interestingly he still had 9 Ks in his loss.

It was only two starts but so far he has been insane. 32% Ks vs just 4% walks. Interestingly he has massively ramped up his slider usage to 40%, basically Corbin style. This is probably not quite sustainable but the slider is a very good pitch. Just hope he can stay healthy. Should the sox try to trade him due to his injury risk? Or can he become the staff ace they need?

Also something that can be corrected. I know player development wasn't a strength but lisle should be able to fix that.

I think a pitcher would fit the Sox well but a third overall pick is too valuable to waste it on a non elite pitching prospect. I'm not against a pitcher and if a guy like mize was out there this year I would say go for it but there is a reason at this draft the top10 of most lists are almost all hitters. Fangraphs only gives one pitcher even a 50fv this draft. My opinion is in the draft only take a pitcher top5 overall if he is half a grade better than the best available hitter. I mean it would be stupid to take a 55 hitter over a Stephen strasburg in the draft first overall just because he is "safer". But if the best pitcher has the same or even a lower grade than the best hitter I don't think you can do it just because you need a pitcher.

Hitting the other way isn't super hard with the right mechanics but it isn't for everyone. It helps babip but it is also tougher to hit homers to center or oppo than to pull. Some guys need to be pull hitters to hit for power. That is also one of the effects of the shift, it forces many hitters to make a decision between obp and slugging. Ideally you have true oppo power but for many hitters trying to go the other way would mean less power.

I agree. But he also wasn't going to he a 1.600 ops guy, his true talent is probably in between. I still think he is probably the best college bat. Bishop has been crazy but track record matters too, I think you need to be careful with guys having one huge breakout year. Sure players develope but it could also be a huge career year and some regression following. Vaughn has done it for 3 years, he still is the safest pick, even rutschman "only" was good for two years after a bad freshman year.

Second giolito start was more the old gio. On the positive side 4ks in 4 innings isn't terrible but those walks of course were way too much. How was his velo?

Latest longenhagen chat https://www.jotcast.com/chat/eric-longenhagen-chat-4-5-19-5024.html

Btw I think the BPA thing in principle is right but also gets overblown. Sure if a player is clearly better you take him but you also need a balance in the system and if 2-3 guys are very similar in expected outcome teams often take a guy in which the system is lacking because they don't love to trade away top prospects because in every trade the opponent has a little more information on your target than you have (medical stuff, knowledge of work ethic...). You would never take a clearly inferior player in the top10 but if 2-3 guys are essentially considered a wash it does play a role what you need.

I don't think it will be prospect for prospect, nobody likes to do that. Kiley once explained that saying it would alienate the player dev and scouting department because they tend to think they have the better guys, not sure if that is true though. I think it will be more for young major leaguers with 3-4 years of control.

I agree. Bishop is fast for his size but that doesn't tend to age well, most guys that are fast into their late 20s are slimmer guys. I don't think bishop is a CF for long if he is a CF at all.

The biggest issue is really that everyone got hurt or took long to develope. Sure the sox system is not as strong anymore as it was a yes ago but considering they graduated a ton of guys already it is still plenty strong. Imo you need to look at prospects plus young major leaguers, not just prospects and there the sox are still around the top. I mean which team can graduate 4-5 top100 guys and will still have like 6 left after this year? Just look at the cubs system after all their graduations and trades. But problem is the young major leaguers all took quite a bit and many prospects got hurt. They don't have a Soto,acuna, Hoskins, Torres that became a 4 win player immediately. If giolito and moncada hit right away, kopech stayed healthy and Roberts played full seasons the sox situation would look totally different. They just need guys to step up, at least moncada and giolito had a good start, hopefully they can keep it up.

I agree. The FS guys Know more about the sox prospect but what they lack is comparison to other teams prospects. The value the real scouts and guys that travel a lot like eric and kiley have is that they have seen 1000s of guys so they rank it better. The FS have a lot of specific knowledge but I'm not sure they can really say what is a 50 hit tool or a 60 arm if they see it. They also might be a little too positive on some guys because they are obviously also fans albeit they try to be objective.

Of course moncada would sign an extension, but probably not a 5/40 type of team friendly extension.

So they are biased against about anyone in the sox system ( madrigal, robert, gonzalez, cease...)?

Repeating mechanics is very important for him. The new motion is a good sign but only if he sticks with it. He has been a tinkerer in the past who is probably smart but overanalyzing things. He needs to stick with one motion and not start experimenting again the next time he has a bad start or two.

I will mostly look at his K-BB rate. A low era would be nice but the biggest issue was he had hardly more Ks than walks. Good pitchers have at least twice better 3 times as many Ks as walks. His first start looks promising in this regard but we need to wait and see.

I think offensively anderson is what he is, a low on base guy with some pop. He might be able to improve some defensively as he is a good athlete.