Dominikk85

Latest longenhagen chat https://www.jotcast.com/chat/eric-longenhagen-chat-4-5-19-5024.html

Btw I think the BPA thing in principle is right but also gets overblown. Sure if a player is clearly better you take him but you also need a balance in the system and if 2-3 guys are very similar in expected outcome teams often take a guy in which the system is lacking because they don't love to trade away top prospects because in every trade the opponent has a little more information on your target than you have (medical stuff, knowledge of work ethic...). You would never take a clearly inferior player in the top10 but if 2-3 guys are essentially considered a wash it does play a role what you need.

I don't think it will be prospect for prospect, nobody likes to do that. Kiley once explained that saying it would alienate the player dev and scouting department because they tend to think they have the better guys, not sure if that is true though. I think it will be more for young major leaguers with 3-4 years of control.

I agree. Bishop is fast for his size but that doesn't tend to age well, most guys that are fast into their late 20s are slimmer guys. I don't think bishop is a CF for long if he is a CF at all.

The biggest issue is really that everyone got hurt or took long to develope. Sure the sox system is not as strong anymore as it was a yes ago but considering they graduated a ton of guys already it is still plenty strong. Imo you need to look at prospects plus young major leaguers, not just prospects and there the sox are still around the top. I mean which team can graduate 4-5 top100 guys and will still have like 6 left after this year? Just look at the cubs system after all their graduations and trades. But problem is the young major leaguers all took quite a bit and many prospects got hurt. They don't have a Soto,acuna, Hoskins, Torres that became a 4 win player immediately. If giolito and moncada hit right away, kopech stayed healthy and Roberts played full seasons the sox situation would look totally different. They just need guys to step up, at least moncada and giolito had a good start, hopefully they can keep it up.

I agree. The FS guys Know more about the sox prospect but what they lack is comparison to other teams prospects. The value the real scouts and guys that travel a lot like eric and kiley have is that they have seen 1000s of guys so they rank it better. The FS have a lot of specific knowledge but I'm not sure they can really say what is a 50 hit tool or a 60 arm if they see it. They also might be a little too positive on some guys because they are obviously also fans albeit they try to be objective.

Of course moncada would sign an extension, but probably not a 5/40 type of team friendly extension.

So they are biased against about anyone in the sox system ( madrigal, robert, gonzalez, cease...)?

Repeating mechanics is very important for him. The new motion is a good sign but only if he sticks with it. He has been a tinkerer in the past who is probably smart but overanalyzing things. He needs to stick with one motion and not start experimenting again the next time he has a bad start or two.

I will mostly look at his K-BB rate. A low era would be nice but the biggest issue was he had hardly more Ks than walks. Good pitchers have at least twice better 3 times as many Ks as walks. His first start looks promising in this regard but we need to wait and see.

I think offensively anderson is what he is, a low on base guy with some pop. He might be able to improve some defensively as he is a good athlete.

You also have to consider he is a switch hitter so he has to develope two swings. Maybe that means it takes him a little longer to develope than some one side hitters. Beltran also wasn't that good his first 3 years and took off in the 4th.

But moncada is really extreme in that regard. No hitters covers all 4 edges and everyone hits down the pipe better but good hitters usually have at least one of the 4 edges were they can hammer a borderline strike. For moncada the hot zone is basically just middle. https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=17232&position=2B&ss=2018-03-28&se=2018-09-30&type=5&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=&season=all&data= If you look at for example goldschmidt he dominates middle but also pitches slightly above the zone https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=9218&position=1B&ss=2018-03-29&se=2018-09-30&hand=all&count=all&pitch=&season=all&data=&blur=1&grid=10&view=bat&type=5 For trout it is middle and anything just below the zone and a big part of the inside edge (except high) https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&ss=2018-03-28&se=2018-09-30&type=5&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=&season=all&data= I'm not saying trout and goldy live on bad pitches, they certainly feast on mistakes but they just have a larger hot zone and also at least one edge were a perfect on the black strike is not enough. I mean even trout has a hole up in the zone but he compensates for it by being able to destroy a "perfect" just below the zone strike. Moncada doesn't have that, too far off the middle no matter to what edge and he can't do much with it. Moncada is a smart hitter who knows his strengths but he needs to make his hot zone a little larger and become good at dominating as least one of the edges (down, up, in or out) to become a little tougher out. Moncada has a good approach but he has fallen behind too often in the past.

Definitely encouraging start but i would wait until he faces some better pitchers, September, spring and royals pitchers aren't great:). Moncada seems to be a bit of a mistake hitter, i would like to see him getting a little better at hitting good pitches. But i do think there is some progress.

...imo is the development of moncada, eloy, giolito and reylo. Wins are nice but honestly those 4 and maybe Anderson are the only ones currently on the 25 who will be an important piece of the next good team. If at least 3 out of the 4 turn out good the sox are in a good spot. But if 3 of them fail it will be tough unless the remaining prospects all hit. Imo thus this year i mostly follow those 4. More wins are better but i would prefer those 4 taking a big step forward and 69 wins rather than 3 of them stagnating, fringe guys like palka, sanchez and cordell stepping up and the sox winning 80.

I don't think there is a big risk bishop goes the murray route, that was a once in a million situation were all the dices fell the wrong way for the As. Still think bishop at 3 would be an overdraft, his bat improved tremendously but arm and range aren't really true CF quality. Most sources have him like 8-12 now.

The average college guy certainly is older than 23 at the debut and probably older than 24. However if you look at top100 prospects that might change. Also you have to consider Gonzalez likely will be close to 25 when he debuts and not 23 because he first has to make it through AA and maybe AAA. 25 is not an unusual debut age but old for a top100 prospect.

Gonzalez isn't 22, he is 23.5 years old which is old for an A ball prospect. It isn't much above average but most of the older ones aren't real prospects but roster fillers. He will be 24 in AAA ball. Still can become a top100 but then he absolutely needs to destroy AA and AAA.

I agree. While i understand the argument that he is an advanced college bat and not young he can still finish the season in high A, start 2020 in AA and be ready for 2021 if he is good enough. Maybe even a 2020 late call up but then he has to rake.

I agree. He is either league average or slightly below, definitely a nice place holder for madrigal and not the problem of the sox. He won't become a plus player but for now he is ok. I mean there are so many sub 1 and even negative war players on the sox roster...

Can't see it with the season he is having. So far he hit even better than vaughn. He might not quite keep this up but he would need a major slump or get hurt to not go 1 1 at this point.

A history of the tatis trade https://theathletic.com/884960/2019/03/25/everybody-was-surprised-but-here-we-are-an-oral-history-of-how-the-padres-acquired-fernando-tatis-jr/ Basically it was preller was watching him for years and was higher than about anyone else on him.

I agree. He is in a bit of a slump maybe but he has a 2.5 year track record of doing this. Also of course the season start pace was not his true talent level, he is a very good hitter but nobody is a .500 hitter in a top d1 conference. Overall his ops is still 1.300 which is what he did last year, I still think he is the best or second best college hitter of the draft. Maybe it is even good if he "only" finishes with a 1.200 or so ops because that means it increases the chance the royals don't take him at two.

I think Arm strength isn't relative to position. So 40 arm isn't 40 for CF but overall. Trout doesn't have a good arm for a cf but it still wasn't bad. Here is a scouting report http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/10/12/mike-trout-scouting-report Range is more important but a 40 arm doesn't play cf I think

I think eloy will be a better hitter but the reports on the body are not great, many now see him more as a DH who can fill in at a corner rather than as a true OF.