Dominikk85

Any team who doesn't use all of the international pool is stupid. 5m is nothing and there is so much value. Can't leave that on the table.

At this point I would be fine with any contribution from him. When drafted you hoped for a starter of course but if he turns out to be a dominant reliever that would be ok too.

Jack cust has a career 123 wRC+. Didn't do it in a sexy way but if collins can do that at catcher that would be pretty good.

There are no mlb regulars with a sub 200 average. But there were plenty low to mid 200s guys who walked a lot. Maybe Collins can be jack cust.

Are you worried about erics assessment that eloy might be more of a DH/emergency corner OF than a capable outfield defender? Of course his bat will play at DH too if he hits his projection and becomes a 130-140 wrc+ hitter but if he is a DH or very negative OF he could be more of a 3.5 war rather than a 5 war guy.

Zavala is also striking out a lot, pretty similar to collins. He had some super high babips giving him a decent average but I'm not sure that will stick in the majors.

Collins is a much better hitter but can he catch?

I agree. He obviously knows baseball but i just don't believe he is putting in the same effort as the other guys. Making a top100 the right way is a boat load of work with a lot of talking to scouts and even seeing guys in person. Longenhagen for example has an insane work and travel schedule. I just don't think bowden puts in that effort, he probably parrots other lists and tweaks them a little by personal preference. fortunately the athletic has hired sickels who will probably make the next lists and has more credibility.

Yes, a pitcher averaging 6.5 war will be called an ace too it isn't a hard cut off. Basically it is about being a true talent 7 win guy. 7 win once or twice and you are not a 7 win guy. But if a guy put up 7,7,7, 2, 7 in 5 years he would still be a true talent 7 win guy who had an off year. The average is under 7 but still everyone would call him a 7 win guy.

Problem is the increased bp usage and decreased starter innings. 7 win seasons used to be more common but now it is hard to do. The ace starter who pitches 200+ every year with a low era is indeed becoming a unicorn. The only ones who reliably do that are scherzer, sale, kluber, verlander and Kershaw (might be over). The staff ace of the future probably will throw 170 with a low era and the 200 ip ace might die completely.

Eric mentioned in the chat the injury history and body type leaning to see him more as a DH rather than RF.

Imo burger should be moved off third now to lower the risk of injury. Let him play first and hopefully mash.

He has a calf strain and likely will miss the start of the season. If it aggrivates it could be even worse like with donaldson who missed most of the season with that injury.

What is dissapointing is the second prospect. Sanchez is far and away the best phillies prospect, no issue here. But the second pitcher is just a 40. I think they should have gotten at least garcia or haseley if not bohm.

I think it is more like Anderson, roberts, basabe

Seems like fan graphs auto ranks players at easier positions if they don't think they will stick, did the same with Collins.

Some stats: Top15 war 16-18 1. Trout, hs 26.1R 2.betts , 5R 3. Altuve int low bonus 4. Ramirez int 50k 5.lindor hs 8. 1R 6. Yelich hs 23. 1R 7. Rendon 6. 1R COLLEGE 8. Bryant 2nd 1R college 9. Arenado 10th 2R HS 10.freeman 14th 2R hS 11. Goldschmidt 15, 8R college 12. Votto 3rd, 2R HS 13. Machado 3rd 1R,Hs 14. Turner 9th, 7R college 15. Blackmon 26th, 2R college Some trends: -Hs stars tend to be first rounders generally pick 1-25 -college bats are top10 picks with the exception of corner bats who were often found in round 2 or even later. Generally very few college bats are playing premium positions -international stars have a variety of backgrounds

I can understand why Teams don't draft hs arms in the top15 anymore, can't bust away those picks. However I think the market has overcorrected in that legitimate top10-15 talents get dropped to the 35-60 range. My strategy would depend on the position of the second pick. If it is 25-35 take the highest upside available hs bat. But if your second pick is 35-50 It might make sense to get a super talented hs arm rather than "the rest" of the HS bats and many teams vulture on them in the comp round.

I wouldn't even be against first round hs pitchers but obviously not top5-10"overall. Hs pitchers bust often but they also a legitimate shot to get an ace past the first round while even the raw super talented hs bats go in mid to late first with the rare mature hs hitter with fully gown power (like harper who hit moonshots at at 15 yo go higher). At the college level you can find aces but after the first 1-2 college pitchers the talent dries up. Hitting is not as extreme but after pick 8 or so upside gets limited. Imo late first to third round can be a good time to pitch risky hs pitchers.

I would agree with that. Some pitchers did have a rocky start to their career and figured it out but so far giolito was dreadful and if he hadn't been a consensus top5 prospect in baseball he might have been in indy ball right now. The big issue is the stuff has rarely been there. I wouldn't care if he had given up tons of walks and homers with a 7 ERA but struck out 25% however his K rate for his career is 16% which is way below league average and of course his walk rate isn't low either. So far there is really nothing positive about his profile: -16% k -10% bb (6% k-bb!) -not an extreme groundball guy either at 45% (a tad above average) -not good at preventing hard contact either As look at ray said he needs to find a consistent set of mechanics and stop thinking and tinkering. I do think though that it is vital that he sits at 95 though, when he is at 91 he is not efficient because it isn't plus command either. Most disappointing is imo that his curve is bad too, it was advertised as plus to double plus.

I think law is quite anal about the prospects he likes and often a bit biased. He doesn't like underpowered guys but if they are toolsy but too raw (like hitters with shady K/BB numbers or pitchers with stuff who cant locate) he doesn't like them either.

Miller had a promising start and of course this is way better than not performing but I wouldn't get too excited about a top5 round advanced college bat doing well in A ball. For college players the real test at AA because they are physically and mechanically ahead of many A ball prospects who are often HS or very young international prospects. A 22 yo college player should be ahead of a 19 yo international or HS guy. Also Miller is a 3b which now is a power position in mlb. At 2b there are still hit over power guys who hit 12 homers with decent obp but at 3b they expect you to hit 25+ in these days. Miller doesn't seem to be a power hitter either and at age 22 there isn't much room to grow the power. If he was able to play MIF that would be different but a 3b who can hit 12 homers isn't good to use as utility/bench guy because he can only play 3rd, 1st and maybe LF, all positions were the bat doesn't play well. If he can play MIF with 12 homers and decent obp that would be a nice bench bat though but for a 3b to play with 40-45 power it basically needs to be 70 hit which is probably a stretch for him.

Yeah he is a decent prospect. Not a great fielder at short but great k to bb ratio and not zero pop either. Can probably hit 15 homers with decent obp in his prime, might move to second or third later

The good thing is that the reds mostly traded for players at the right side of 30. If the whole thing fails they can sell those pieces for prospects again which makes it a pretty low risk move. Preller did the same with the Padres, traded a lot of prospects away but when it didn't work quickly re sold and still had a monster system.

I think it is more that mlb.com wants every team to have some top100 prospects on the list so fringy top 100 guys will be pushed up in thin farm systems like the cubs while the fringy top100 guys of the systems who already have 6-7 guys on the list will get pushed out. It is simply better for traffic if every team has 2-3 guys on the list while sox or padres fans won't care whether they have 8 or 9 guys.