Dominikk85

The indians didn't have any success drafting position players since 2013, they were actually much worse than the white Sox in that regard. They were better in drafting pitchers but much of that probably was their great pitching development. Where they have the sox beat is international non cuban signings, Sox have been extremely bad internationally except for the cuban players.

I'm still curious about the thought process of trading madrigal. Obviously they wanted kimbrel to help them to win now but hahn is not an idiot, if he thought madrigal was a cost controlled annual 3 war second baseman he wouldn't have made that trade. I think for some reason they must be very down on madrigal, maybe they think his medicals indicate his injury struggles will continue and he never will be a guy who regularly plays 145+ games a year.

After the first 10 picks or so there is a massive drop of in average value. http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/06/draft_picks_and.php Basically for a second rounder you expect less than 5 war, so basically a guy who is a utility guy for a couple years. You hope for more of course and some second rounders do become good players or even stars but the average outcome of a second rounder is probably danny mendick or adam engel. Hansen obviously was less than that, you would have at least expected that he makes it as a middle reliever to the majors for a couple years as a "floor" but it isn't a super unexpected outcome either, if the average second rounder has 4 war over his 6 control years and some are much better than some also have to be much worse.

I'm not sure burger will be able to play 2b full time but for his playing time it would be good if he became good enough at 2b so that he could play there occasionally. If he could play 1st, 3rd, second and maybe left field in a pinch (and of course DH) you could carry him kinda as a super utility guy albeit of course ideally you want your util guy to play short in a pinch too which definitely wouldn't work with burger. But generally more flexibility is better

The owners don't care about what he says and how popular he is. His job is to make the owners money. Yeah in theory you could say he hurts long term growth but owners are mostly old men who care about the value of their club in the next 5 years and not about the fans of 2040. That's why they all opted for contracting the minors, that move will cost the game some long term fans but brings money short term. However I do think there is a chance Manfred gets fired but that is only if owners a) lose money by having a lockout very long into the season b) are forced to sign a very player friendly cba to start the season. As long an owner friendly cba is signed to start the season in time his job is safe.

The results the last two years weren't ideal in the end but you have to admit the rebuilt went pretty quickly, just 3 years without playoffs (17,18,19) with only two of them being worst team in baseball type of years. That sucks too of course but if you compare it with the Orioles, pirates or Phillies a couple years ago who were tanking like 6 years before it got better (Orioles and pirates still not there yet) it could have been worse. Obviously having cost controlled assets like sale, quintana and Eaton made a big difference in jump starting the rebuild over the other teams who had nothing to trade but still in the end it went pretty well. Still a WS appearance is missing so far but considering the Sox were a mid 70s win team before the rebuild the cost of the rebuild wasn't that high.

Yeah he was good and as long he is producing a good bottom line his opb and lack of plate discipline doesn't matter, 4 war is 4 war no matter how you do it. However both his walk and strikeout rate is alarming and those players can fall of a cliff like Adam dunn did because their swing and miss can go from bad to intolereable pretty quickly. If a guy who strikes out 20% of the time adds a few points of k rate it doesn't hurt much but if you are already in the 30s it is getting very dangerous, especially if you don't walk at all like baez. A 10 to 1 k to bb usually doesn't age well. Most important is he keeps up his defense and power production, as long he hits 25 homers with good defense up the middle a 290 opb will do the job but if he has to shift to a corner he is basically useless.

I would give sheets a chance, if they get a lefty bat I want a real outfielder and not a corner of/DH type like schwarber

Scott kingery got a private guy named schenck. He is a pool hall owner who made himself known by insulting everyone on Twitter and in internet forums which all banned him. That guy had success with Aaron Judge but most guys who worked with him strike out a ton (judge too but he has enough power and patience to make it worse). He claims to be the only guy who understands a magic elite swing pattern and fights with everyone who disagrees with him and he has a little cult of followers. They basically teach extreme lean back over the rear leg and then turn the handle of the bat straight down which means they can hit pitches down well but nothing in the upper half Jason ochart from the Phillies said that mlb teams try to prevent their guys from working with him because of that but he had success with judge so that attracts some guys who want to hit for more power. Most end up like kingery or happ though unless they have extreme power and plate discipline to make that approach work

The thing with the dodgers is that 1)they are much better at the other defensive positions than the Sox 2)they are very good at shifting to migitate muncy's limited range. The Sox don't shift much (could be changed) and are pretty bad at many other defensive positions too (hard to change)

I agree he could play there a few games but not every day. Imo he should be traded. Using him as a utility player between 3rd, 1st, DH, lf and 2b could work but there is issues with that 1) he is below average at most of those positions and the Sox are a very bad defensive team anyway which hurts the pitchers. If you Carry all those bad defenders like eloy, Vaughn, abreu you want a defensive improvement coming from the bench, not a downgrade 2) he can't play short which means you have to carry another utility bat 3) he is right handed and Sox are super right handed anyway

Depends a lot on how much salary the Sox are eating. If the Sox eat nothing they don't get much but if the Sox eat some salary there could be a nice return

I think those ivy league guys have pretty strong networks, so that owner who went to Harvard has an old friend who has a son who just graduated in business analytics and wants to work in baseball for a few years before he enters the "real world". That is the other issue for Diversity in baseball, there is some straight discrimination but the other reason is entry level analytics jobs are very badly paid or even unpaid internships but still seeking out highly qualified persons who can do like machine learning etc. This works for the rich white kid who gets paid his student loans by dad and maybe even getting some extra money. That dad is telling his kid "you can do that job as an adventure for 3 years and I will send you some extra money to cover but then you either need to move up in baseball and get paid or you have to move the real world". Owners abuse this to suppress salaries, analytics people will work for 30-50% of what they would get in the business world just for the dream of working in baseball. POC (and lower class white guys) can't always afford that even if they have the education because they have to pay student loans and maybe even already a family so they just can't afford to work well under market rate. But as long there are enough rich family ivy league kids who are willing to work for low salary for a couple years just so they can later brag and say they worked for the Yankees owners have no reason to pay market rate for Entry level analytics jobs.

A lot of this low diversity hirings happen unconsciously. People say "the best guys rise to the top" but business owners are people too and they have biases. Some of those owners might be racist but even those who are not really racist still have biases and when in doubt they will subconsciously trust people that are like them too. That applies to race, gender and even just socioeconomic background (a white man from a "bad family" or poor background is unlikely to make it either). This is what diversity is about. It is about race but also about opening up for just people from a different background, many business owners do limit themselves by always picking people that are like themselves. There are even some studies suggesting diversity will improve decisions because by bringing in people from different racial, gender and social backgrounds you will get a greater diversity of ideas too. Not every of those ideas will be good and those non diverse hires are good at their job too but their similar background limits the kind of life experiences they have and in turn often their ideas and solutions will be similar.

Keith law ranted about that topic in a podcast recently. The Sabermetric movement actually made the situation for POC front office personnel worse. It was always a white world in front offices but at least there were a few black guys like Michael Hill, Dave Stewart etc because back then front offices were recruited from baseball lifers and usually former players. The ivy league movement decreased diversity because now every new GM is a young white Ivy league graduate. Obviously there are also qualified black ivy league graduates but those people are not chosen, the only way for black personnel to make it into baseball jobs is being a former pro player. There are rules for Diversity but Apparently teams circumvent that By inviting some former black GMs like Michael Hill to interviews with no intention of signing them.

I'm not a fan of Japanese power hitters. The pitchers there throw 89 and the parks are very small, usually the power doesn't translate. Basically only ohtani and Matsui succeeded as Japanese power hitters in mlb. Yoshi tsutsugo had a 900+ ops and averaged over 30 bombs from 17-19 and so far in in mlb career he has barely hit over 200. Suzuki has better plate discipline than tsutsugo and his average should play better but I'm sceptical that he will be a 30 Homer guy in mlb.

They didn't let him sign it, they gave him a player option when they extended him in 2018 that Blackmon exercised now. Still a bad contract albeit the rockies owner probably doesn't care, as long they are around 500, they are selling tickets

I think they deserve their own thread, they start to approach Mets "lol-ness". After not trading story and gray because they preferred getting a comp pick (which is stupid because the return for a top rental is at least twice the value of a comp pick - which is about a 45fv prospect). For Story they did that which is bad enough but it gets even worse, after reportedly failing to sign gray to a multi year deal they decided to not offer gray the QO which means they don't receive a prospect at all. That is an Amazing level of incompetence and not a Good way to achieve competitiveness in that tough division anytime soon. Interestingly the rockies still were top10 in attendance in the majors, it seems that for the rockies owner sucess doesn't matter much for his financial well Being which might explain the lack of urgency. If I was a rockies fan I would be super pissed

Yes mullins would cost a ton. Basically a top 10 overall prospect plus another top100 which the Sox don't have so you would have to give up mlb roster talent which defeats the purpose. The Sox FO must be really low on madrigal when they traded him without anything in the minors to replace him, maybe they are down on his health outlook

Yes, I think the formula would need to accommodate for signing age. Maybe 7 years for college, 9 years for HS and 10 for international. That would make anyone a free agent around 27-28. That would really devalue older prospects though who haven't yet broken out (like sheets and burger), because a 25-26 yo rookie wouldn't have much control left.

I'm not sure that is a good idea by the Padres. Ozzie has a big personality and the trend is to hire younger managers who just say yes to the analytics and front office suggestions. I can't really imagine Ozzie listening to a data nerd who hasn't played past little league on baseball tactics. Yeah I realize two very old managers currently play in the WS but I'm not sure with Ozzie that will go as smoothly as it seems to go with dusty who apparently is listening to Sabermetrics and is not doing his old running pitchers into the ground like he did with some guys with the cubs back then

The biggest return would obviously come from trading Vaughn but he also is likely the player with the most future value so by trading him you would lose value that his trade return would need to bring back. I also agree that depth is good and injuries do happen but having Vaughn, Jose, sheets and burger on the same 25 man roster is costing the team in other areas and while sheets and burger have options they are too old and advanced to be stached in the minors, if they are 27-28 in 2 years their value is zero. That means some decisions likely have to be made. I don't think the sox should trade Vaughn, I think Vaughn can be similarly good as konerko and Jose at first and we don't know what the Sox have with sheets and burger

Vaughn was very bad in the OF. The first half he was about average but he also got very lucky that he basically didn't get any 3 and 4 star catch opportunities, he mostly got 1 and 2s which admittedly he did do well. However in the second half his lack of speed was exposed. Overall he was at - 4 in statcast outs above average in the OF (98th out of 125). In lf he was 28th out of 41. Don't get me wrong, he is playable there but he is a distinctly below average defender and probably better suited for first or DH. I'd like him to keep playing some OF but if he is playing full time in left the Sox need a plus defender in right especially since the Sox pitching staff is a fly ball pitcher staff (6th highest FB rate in a 2021). With that many FB pitchers (which isn't bad, fly balls cause homers but are also caused by the high 4 seamers and big breakers which are creating Ks) you simply need a better OF and leury certainly isn't the answer either (albeit despite a few blunders leury still is a way better OF than Vaughn - +1 oaa for leury vs - 4 for Vaughn, but you don't want his bat there)

The Sox have basically a logjam of those 4 bat first guys who probably should only play DH or first. Out of those Vaughn was clearly the worst (94 wrc+), however he also is the highest regarded guy of those other than Jose plus he has actually shown in spurts what he is capable of (134 wrc+ in July). He also was struggling with some stuff like pitches on the outer half and righties in general but in spurts he showed that he could do better against them so he probably was still learning the game as skipping the high minors probably did show with him. Vaughn was basically learning on the job what he should have learned in AA and AAA and considering that he did OK. Thus I think Vaughn does have the most upside and Should be given a run from the start next season. That leaves us with 3. Jose had some inconsistencies but overall a solid season at a 126 wrc+. He also kept his k rate and posted a career high 9% walk rate and his statcast metrics were solid too. On the flip side he is getting older and could fall of a cliff but I don't see the Sox not giving him another run. After 2022 it could be over though for him. Sheets and burger both did really well in majors and minors (both each like a 120-130 wrc+ at both levels). Obviously in the majors they were put in favorable spots and a full time run could have exposed weaknesses but still their overall work was solid. What should the Sox do with them? Both are in their mid 20s and shouldn't be in the minors any longer. I think they should keep sheets as he is a lefty and the roster is very right handed and trade burger. I wonder what his value is though, he did very well and teams might not want a 26 yo corner bat with two Achilles tears. So if it comes to getting something back maybe trading someone else might make more sense.

I don't think TLR managed the series perfectly at all but in the end they would not have had a chance anyway the way the key bullpen pitchers performed. Maybe he should have pulled some starters a little earlier and used a different reliever here and there but with kopech, hendricks and kimbrel all pitching badly there just wasn't enough bullpen quality to get through the games with starters being gone after 4-5. The Sox would have needed either their starters going 6+ or kopech, Hendricks and and kimbrel all performing at a peak level and probably in multi inning roles. Sox starters went: 3.2, 4.1, 1.2, 2.2 innings, they Sox didn't have enough quality relievers to get through that many relief innings. If anything maybe he should have pushed the starters a little more but they were getting hit pretty hard and with the Sox not doing much with RISP apart from the game they won that probably wouldn't have worked out anyway. Starters not getting deep, hitters stranding a lot of runners and the back end pen arms not performing was probably too much to overcome.