Dominikk85

Essentially they are regressing BIP luck based on some batted ball data. Basically a bit like FIP, if someone for example has a super low babip or a huge amount of doubles they will regress it to a more normal rate to make it more predictive.

Not a huge fan of Crawford. Even before his call up his high minors numbers tailed off. In the low minors he walked a ton but never had much power and it wasn't good contact either (tons of pop ups). His power has improved a bit but still is below average. His k rate also increased. Still a good defender but probably a 45-50 bat with 40 power. Now if the rumor is true that the second guy is sixto Sanchez that would of course change the outlook a lot, he is one of the best pitching prospects currently.

I like the trade for the mets. They are going to suck anyway in 4 years and kelenic and Dunn don't really fit their timeline. Diaz for 2 50fvs is fair value and the money the Mariners eat make the deal almost cash neutral albeit probably not quite. Decent trade for both teams. The last 1-2 years might not be pretty for the mets but if they have a window it is now. Only works if pitchers stay healthy though.

I think grandal is a bit of a mistake hitter. He has great plate discipline and waits for a fat pitch to crush but against tough pitchers who can locate with velo he is in trouble. Still is a good defender, not the best blocker but great at framing.

I like it for the mets. Yeah the future will be tough but they have a decent core now and in a couple years they are bad anyway. Try to win the next 2-3 years with Alonso, McNeil, cano, comforto, degrom and Diaz and worry about the future later as they will need a rebuild anyway.

Narvaez is a decent hitter for his position (although last year isn't his true talent level) but it seems the Sox don't believe in his defense enough to at least make him a backup. Framing is king in these days and if the team thinks you can't help the pitchers behind the plate you are gone quickly.

I could see Vaughn falling to 10-12 if he "only" hits 320 instead of 400 but not much lower. To hold the top5 he needs to repeat last year.

Fangraphs still has Vaughn at 6 https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&team=

Yes. According to fangraphs one 60fv (top10 overall) is worth 2 50s (50-100 on top100) or about 10 45s (org 8-15). You would need 20 40s (worth 3m) to match one 60 in projected dollar value. That is why the quantity packages that fans love to suggest usually don't work to get a top target, teams want the top prospect rather than big quantity.

Thomas was a better hitter by a little bit due to the walks comparing their prime but don't forget that young Pujols was a great defender and base runner. Pujols would get 2-3 war from defense and base running compared to the average 1b. Thomas on the other hand was really bad in the field which is why he topped out at 7 war and Pujols at 10.

I think his true talent is hitting around 260-270 with around 15 Homers.

Yeah, I wonder why they didn't try some stuff in the rebuild like the rays did with the opener. The six seem to be rather conservative and only follow trends if they are sure that it will work and others do it already.

You can't keep him on the 40 really as he is nowhere ready. Problem is that last year even his control - supposedly his strength wasn't good with 4 bb/9 which is essentially the same as cease and kopech last year with the difference that they have stuff and don't need command like Kershaw to make it work while clarkin needs to walks less than 2 to be a big league option even as a spot starter/rescue relief innings eater. Now clarkin probably still has better command than kopech and part of the walks was him avoiding the zone and trying to get batters to chase but this is because his over the plate stuff gets shelled and he has to live essentially on the "black". Against big league hitters that will be worse even because they will just wait for him to throw over the plate and crush it. Now if he really developes 70 command he could be a mediocre back end innings eater but he isn't there yet.

Don't quite get it. Winter ball makes sense if you miss two months with injury to get a few more reps. I think eloy was on the dl last year but it only was a short stint and he did have 500 PAs. He doesn't need the extra rest.

podcast https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-white-sox-top-mlb-prospects-podcast/ They explain the ranking. They comped eloy to be jd Martinez (offensively and defensively). Put walker in the top10 due to amateur record and said he had an oblique strain at the end of his amateur career which might have caused him not hitting at all in the pro debut.

The only thing that could turn it into a playoff team is 3-4 young guys taking a big step forward and several rookies making an immediate impact. Not impossible but unlikely.

Good Move by the braves who have a top30 prospect waiting in Austin riley but probably not quite ready.

Cleveland could use Avi. He still is projected for a 106 wrc+ and 1.5 WAR next year. Eat half the money and get an ok prospect back.

Nice, thanks

Btw you have to expect to make considerably less than in normal business if you do coding in baseball. Teams are abusing that many want to do it just to work in pro sports.

Maybe the I want to stay at short thing was to get a better contract. In the end his defense became a little better because the Dodgers positioned him better. Still this could of course be a red flag as the Dodgers great analytics crew might have hidden his lack of range a little. But I could see him being ok to stay at third once he has the big contract in his pocket. Could be wrong of course.

Btw I don't see a fit here. Sox are not a real contender unless something braves happens and several rookies have 3 plus war seasons and others overperform and at some point Cruz is going to decline. Cruz value is that he likely still mashes in 2019. Btw I don't think Cruz is wanting to do that either, this is likely his final two years of play and he wants to make money but also probably play some playoffs. He probably would much rather play for the Astros or so who are bad at 1b/DH and could need him.

The upside is he has a good April and May and then gets traded for a decent prospect. Apparently the Astros were offering a real prospect until they knew his physical condition. Yeah he costs 10m but it only is a year and even if the sox somehow manage to sign machado for 35m per year their 2019 payroll will be barely over 100m for 2019 so it is not they need financial flexibility for 2019. Play him 2019, hope he bounces back so you get a good 45 fv prospect for him and if not you can still release him in late may to make room for eloy when he comes up.

Also the union doesn't like players giving hometown discounts. The other players don't look favorably at you if you don't take the highest bid because you hurt the market (the same happens among owners, if an owner decided to pay minor leaguers better the other owners would hate him). Of course they don't burn you at stake but there is a pressure to take the highest you can get because the players already feel getting ripped off and nobody wants to give away even more ground to the owners for no reason. So if machado signed a 7 year, 200M deal because he likes the city instead if taking 10/350 with two opt outs the others will that see as the owners winning another fight.

The idea is nice but most of those people were probably privileged people who had their parents pay for college and of course they were very successful making 150+ k per year. For a normal person making 50-70 k a year, having student debt and having kids this will be almost impossible to do. This is really a thing for a very small, mostly white elite and not something the average person will do. Definitely interesting but more of a curiosity rather than a life model for the future. Also even for those elite guys it could crash if economy is cooling off.