Dominikk85

Asked McDaniel from fg about vaughns future and current raw power. Says both is a 60 which is not spectacular for a 1b but he has a good chance to get to 60 game power which is good.

No. There was never a college first baseman switching to third in pro ball. In fact most college 3b can't play third in the majors. Most college 1B did play other positions in HS. He is a solid glove 1B which is fine.

I would prefer rutschmann too but if you don't get him vaughn has a very high floor. He likely isn't going to be a 5+ war player but he is very likely at least an average everyday 1b with a good chance for more. Abreu with a better glove is basically a 4.5 win player (using the average abreu season) so that is a very decent ceiling.

He is a first baseman and he is also short (5"11) and right handed but he can really hit. Not huge raw power but enough to hit 25-30 bombs. I think he would be a slight stretch at 3 but his ceiling basically is jose abreu with a better glove which is intriguing.

I think kiley mc daniel said he thinks white sox are about middle of the pack now. Not on par with Houston, rays or dodgers but not super old school either. They certainly do believe in analytics now.

Yes. They bumb down pitching prospects half a grade now due to risk but there are still plenty on the top100 and if there is a super prospect like strasburg he still will get a 70fv.

Do you think carter Stewart could fall to the sox second pick? I wouldn't go Stewart at 3 because of the arm risk but if you can spin a deal with the third pick maybe you can maybe get Stewart on an overslot deal. In the second round he definitely would be worth the risk but not sure he falls that far. If he falls past 15 the chance is good he falls into the overslot second pick range.

Yes, college is much more generous about defense. Almost no college players play up a position in pro ball and in fact many college 3b move to first. He is a first baseman. I would watch him very closely this year against the good starters. To draft him 3rd overall you at least have to project the bat as a 70 which is a big thing. But if he continues to hit 400 with 20 bombs and not much worse against top starters I would be open to take him. I would be careful though if he batted 500 against weak starters and 290 against the good ones.

I definitely can see him succeeding but he is a college first baseman and even for a college 1b drafted that high his profile is not really standard, you would a tall projectable athlete like hosmer there. Now I'm not saying he can't succeed but that is a lot of betting on his polish when facing better pitching with wood. Watch him closely and especially how he does against weekend starters of good teams and not just overall stat line.

I'm not sure I love a 5"11 first baseman at 3rd overall. Not totally against it but the typical elite first baseman is 6"2 plus. Now he did perform in both power and average and his swing doesn't look bad But I'm not sure it is elite batspeed and at 5"11, 210 he is really physically maxed out. Also right handed hitting first baseman which some don't like. I agree he could be an elite hitter and then I don't care he is a 5"11 first but if the power backs up a little with wood which sounds reasonable given his maxed out frame and his good but not huge raw power 3rd might be a slight reach. Watch his final season closely, if he hits even better than last year I might take a shot but if he backs up only a little I might prefer a higher upside player. Question is if he really is a 70/70 hitter or more of a 60 hit/60 power which is still great but not at 3 for his position.

It is partially true, however starting pitchers on average are the highest draft picks out of all players. In short: any pitcher can fail but it is rare that a non prospect becomes a good starter, late round pitching successes are usually relievers. Pitcher attrition is real and hitting prospects are safer but the market knows that which is why prices of starting pitching has exploded while prices of corner bats have dropped. Yeah it sucks to have your SP prospect hurt but it sucks more to have a 250M free agent ace hurt. The idea to concentrate on developing hitters is nice but only if you can pay 80M per year on your rotation.

Tons of injuries too.

Longenhagen has doubts wether Witt will hit ( no pun inteded). He said plus fielder with good power but has shown contact trouble against better fastballs missing some fastballs over the plate and might ultimately be a 240 hitter. If that is true I would like the Orioles who have hired a relative of witt to overdraft him. I'm not against HS hitters but I don't like getting a HS guy with question marks about the hit tool. I'm not ruling him out but HS competition is very weak and how he does against the average 76 mph HS starter doesn't tell much, watch very closely how he does against 90+ in the big showcases. IF he hits 450 in HS but shifts a ton in showcases I would stay away.

I think the obp will be similar to Eckstein but madrigal will have more power. Eckstein averaged like 6 homers a year. Madrigal has shown little power but most scouts still think he will grow into 10-15 homer power. Eckstein was a 350/350 hitter and I think madrigal will be more like 350/420 (opb/slg)

The question is whether he really got better or is just seeing more September call up dickshots. Moncada was always pretty decent at making contact near the middle of the plate, he simply couldn't touch anything that was near any of the zone edges. https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=17232&position=2B&ss=&se=&hand=&count=&pitch=&season=&data=&blur=&grid=&view=&type=3 Here it looks like it indeed got a little better. Still big hole down but more coverage on the inside from the left side. Zone looks a little bigger. https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=17232&position=2B&ss=2018-09-01&se=2018-09-22&type=3&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=&season=all&data=

Schwarber is a 35+ homer guy though. 30% Ks can work if you have a good walk rate (which moncada has) and plus power (which he has hinted at but not shown consistently). If moncada could become a 35+ homer hitter with 12% walks and a 250 BA he is essentially adam dunn (not the washed up one that played for the sox) which would be fine.

I prefer davidson slightly because he has improved his plate discipline. Both whiff a lot and have power but MD takes walks. Palka is more like 2017 MD before the plate discipline spike. Now palka has shown a little more power but unless he has a similar approach adjustment like MD I don't buy in.

I think fangraphs changed their rating a little overall in that they now give all pitchers a slight risk tax for being a pitcher and they now follow a bit more the cubs model of "building through hitting" simply because hitters flame out less often due to injuries. They just have 4 pitchers in the top20 now, it is basically now every pitcher gets half a grade discount to their FV just for being a pitcher. Statistically this is probably the right thing to do because so many pitchers get hurt.

It is a good sign but you have to consider it is shitty September pitching. Still better but we need to see if he can sustain this

As a hitting coach in amateur ball here is what I would do (of course the real hitting coaches should know better than me but I will give my opinion anyway): Work on one of the weaknesses during the winter. You cant correct everything at once and even some great hitters have one bad edge so I would work hard on pitches either up or down all winter. The middle he can handle anyway and if he than also can handle one of the other boundaries this leaves less room for the pitchers to attack him. Ideally he should master at least two of the 4 edges (down-in, down-away, up-in, up-away). So for example he could work all winter on inside pitches and low pitches, middle he can handle anyway. If he can master this he would be much more dangerous. What makes it more complicated is that he is a switch hitter, that is two swings to maintain. I'm not a fan of bad switch hitters. If you are good like lindor that is great but if you have severe holes to stuff that becomes much harder when switch hitting. Maybe it even could be a consideration to give up on his righty swing at some point but for now that is probably not an option.

No he doesn't swing at them because he is a smart guy and knows he can't hit them. His heat map when he swings is also down the pipe. This is actually a good thing because heat and swing map should match somewhat but it becomes a problem once pitchers realize what you are looking for. He simply needs to cover more of the zone. Especially low in the zone his contact rate is super low while in the middle it is ok

Btw here is his distribution by statcast. Called strike 3s: Clearly in zone: 22 Slightly outside but on edge: 47 Way outside the zone: 3 Yeah he does get screwed some but he also takes a lot of strikes and borderline pitches. Against those 3 way outside he shouldn't swing but certainly at the 22 inside and probably at a lot of the 47 on the edges. He just takes a huge amount of pitches on the edges in and out of the zone. He probably got screwed some on borderline pitches but even votto who has the best reputation in baseball got rung up 28 times on borderline pitches slightly outside. But we can do the comparison: Edge two strike pitches: Moncada -ball 67 -strike 47 41% called strike Votto -ball 57 -strike 28 33% You can see that moncada got screwed some but this is compared to the guy with the best reputation in baseball. Compared to votto that cost him 10 looking Ks which is a lot but compared to the average player it is probably more like 4-5 which is still significant but not as big. You can see he does get screwed some but it is not like he is rung up on pitches way outside a ton, it happened a handful of times but mostly he got rung up on strikes and close balls.

It is not good but it probably also means that he takes a lot of borderline pitches and even strikes with two strikes. He is generally a rather passive hitter at 60% zone swing although he also does have a very good eye (23% Chase rate). Thus he probably got a reputation of being willing to take called strikes leading to close calls against him. I would prefer robot umps too but so far it is not coming and umps don't appreciate players taking 2 strike pitches half an inch outside. You don't need to chase but general understanding is that with two strikes you don't let the umpire decide on pitches that are 1-2 inches outside the zone. Imo moncada should be more aggressive within the zone. He should keep his Chase rate down but 60% zone swing is too low (league average is high 60s). For example votto is also very patient but he has a z swing rate of 68%, this means more hittable pitches going through. But moncada also needs to increase his real strike zone he can handle. If you look at his heatmap you see he basically only hits down the pipe well https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=17232&position=2B&ss=&se=&hand=&count=&pitch=&season=&data=&blur=&grid=&view=&type=5 Having one hole is ok, but if you can just hit down the pipe that works in the minors but not in the majors. His swing rates reflect that, he basically only swings a lot down the pipe and takes more than half of the strikes at all 4 edges. This is a good adjustment to make if you can't hit those pitches but as soon pitchers recognize that and locate there it becomes a losing strategy. Moncada needs to hit pitches that are not down the pipe better, at least on two of the 4 eďges. I know you shouldn't make that comparison but here is trouts map. Trout also has a hole (up) but he covers all of the lower edge (actually beyond the zone), inside (except up and in which nobody covers well) and like most the outer half. https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&ss=&se=&hand=&count=&pitch=&season=&data=&blur=&grid=&view=&type=5 Such a pattern is much harder to pitch to than moncada who can be attacked down, up or in. At this point moncada is basically a patient mistake crusher which has some value but limits his hit tool especially against good pitchers.

Btw do you think his reduced velo in his mlb starts already were caused by the injury? The media narrative was he intentionally took something off and preferred strikes at 95-96 over a wild 100+ and the results were solid (except for his last start) despite lower than normal k rates for him because he didn't walk many guys but maybe this already was a sign of his injury.

Yes, if you send him down you stop the clock but you don't get the lost time back. You can send him down as often as you want as long he has minor league options. After that you can send him down too but then other teams could pick him up so you wouldn't do that with top players.