Dominikk85

Yeah a lot of Good starters are high draft picks. It is hard to find starters late because so many things need to come together to be a starter (body, pitch mix, delivery, stamina, command). Even many top sp prospects end up in the pen because their 3rd pitch doesn't progress or command is not enough. Because of this tinstaap only works one direction: any SP prospect can fail but rarely a non SP prospect becomes one. So it does exist but you still need ways to acquire starters.

A lot of talk about prospects but I think equally important is how the young guys progress. Who do you see taking a step forward? And who do think is maxed out? Most important candidates are of course moncada, giolito and lopez. All 3 have shown glimpses of hope but also very deep and long slumps. I'm more optimistic about moncada and lopez than about giolito.

I like analytics but I don't like the bullpenning trend. Too many pitching changes per game. Could adress that with rules.

I think they could mean that he has less tasks to do at 3b than 2b. 2b has to think a little more on the field

What I like about Vaughn and rutschmann is that they are so polished. They might not get much better than they are now but it also means less chance for sox player dev to mess up. I don't trust them with hs hitters.

Everything being equal being a little above 6 is probably ideal but the hit tool is still key. If you can hit you can hit whether you are altuve or judge. Baseball isn't football, athleticism helps but some bad athletes just can hit and vice versa. Tony gwynn wasn't the greatest athlete but he could square up a ball.

Drafting high floor relievers late in the first round was a trend 3-4 years ago. Teams went away from it though because many of those relievers tended to not hit their projected floor. The idea was nice because a high level reliever is worth 1.5 to 2 war and a late round position player projects about for the same but the problem is not many relievers become that good. Generally the outcome of a late round first rounder isn't all that good. Some become good but many just end up as bench pieces and there isn't an easy solution around that.

Fangraphs has Collins as the 1 first base prospect, they basically decided themselves he is not a catcher.

The Strike Zone Advantage doesn't really exist for short hitters. They get helped in the bottom but hurt up https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-jose-altuve-strike-zone/ Generally most great hitters tend to be medium size like 6 to 6"3. Above 6"3 it helps power but I think it hurts contact. The really huge power guys are tall but they also whiff a lot (judge, stanton)

But the 60 is raw power not game power. Most have higher game power than raw power. Examples (fangraphs) Vlad jr 80 raw, 70 power Eloy 80 raw, 70 game Tatis 70 raw, 60 game In most cases 60 raw means 55 or lower game power but Vaughns bat is so good that he could be a rare case were game power and raw match. Don't get me wrong, 60 raw isn't bad it is just not impressive compared to other 1b prospects. For example fangraphs has 70 on Zack Collins raw, so do they have on Peter alonso and josh Naylor. Basically all top 50 rated 1b prospects have 70 or higher raw. Don't get me wrong I love the hit tool but he definitely is an unusual top 1b prospect who tend to be taller and with more raw power. Now if he does become a 290 hitter with 25-30 homers that would basically be Jose abreu and I would be fine with that at 3 but I could also see why one would like more upside.

60 means 23-27 Homers on average. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/ Most 1b drafted in the top10 will have 70+ power. But of course Vaughn projects also for like a 70 bat which is not that common.

Asked McDaniel from fg about vaughns future and current raw power. Says both is a 60 which is not spectacular for a 1b but he has a good chance to get to 60 game power which is good.

No. There was never a college first baseman switching to third in pro ball. In fact most college 3b can't play third in the majors. Most college 1B did play other positions in HS. He is a solid glove 1B which is fine.

I would prefer rutschmann too but if you don't get him vaughn has a very high floor. He likely isn't going to be a 5+ war player but he is very likely at least an average everyday 1b with a good chance for more. Abreu with a better glove is basically a 4.5 win player (using the average abreu season) so that is a very decent ceiling.

He is a first baseman and he is also short (5"11) and right handed but he can really hit. Not huge raw power but enough to hit 25-30 bombs. I think he would be a slight stretch at 3 but his ceiling basically is jose abreu with a better glove which is intriguing.

I think kiley mc daniel said he thinks white sox are about middle of the pack now. Not on par with Houston, rays or dodgers but not super old school either. They certainly do believe in analytics now.

Yes. They bumb down pitching prospects half a grade now due to risk but there are still plenty on the top100 and if there is a super prospect like strasburg he still will get a 70fv.

Do you think carter Stewart could fall to the sox second pick? I wouldn't go Stewart at 3 because of the arm risk but if you can spin a deal with the third pick maybe you can maybe get Stewart on an overslot deal. In the second round he definitely would be worth the risk but not sure he falls that far. If he falls past 15 the chance is good he falls into the overslot second pick range.

Yes, college is much more generous about defense. Almost no college players play up a position in pro ball and in fact many college 3b move to first. He is a first baseman. I would watch him very closely this year against the good starters. To draft him 3rd overall you at least have to project the bat as a 70 which is a big thing. But if he continues to hit 400 with 20 bombs and not much worse against top starters I would be open to take him. I would be careful though if he batted 500 against weak starters and 290 against the good ones.

I definitely can see him succeeding but he is a college first baseman and even for a college 1b drafted that high his profile is not really standard, you would a tall projectable athlete like hosmer there. Now I'm not saying he can't succeed but that is a lot of betting on his polish when facing better pitching with wood. Watch him closely and especially how he does against weekend starters of good teams and not just overall stat line.

I'm not sure I love a 5"11 first baseman at 3rd overall. Not totally against it but the typical elite first baseman is 6"2 plus. Now he did perform in both power and average and his swing doesn't look bad But I'm not sure it is elite batspeed and at 5"11, 210 he is really physically maxed out. Also right handed hitting first baseman which some don't like. I agree he could be an elite hitter and then I don't care he is a 5"11 first but if the power backs up a little with wood which sounds reasonable given his maxed out frame and his good but not huge raw power 3rd might be a slight reach. Watch his final season closely, if he hits even better than last year I might take a shot but if he backs up only a little I might prefer a higher upside player. Question is if he really is a 70/70 hitter or more of a 60 hit/60 power which is still great but not at 3 for his position.

It is partially true, however starting pitchers on average are the highest draft picks out of all players. In short: any pitcher can fail but it is rare that a non prospect becomes a good starter, late round pitching successes are usually relievers. Pitcher attrition is real and hitting prospects are safer but the market knows that which is why prices of starting pitching has exploded while prices of corner bats have dropped. Yeah it sucks to have your SP prospect hurt but it sucks more to have a 250M free agent ace hurt. The idea to concentrate on developing hitters is nice but only if you can pay 80M per year on your rotation.

Tons of injuries too.

Longenhagen has doubts wether Witt will hit ( no pun inteded). He said plus fielder with good power but has shown contact trouble against better fastballs missing some fastballs over the plate and might ultimately be a 240 hitter. If that is true I would like the Orioles who have hired a relative of witt to overdraft him. I'm not against HS hitters but I don't like getting a HS guy with question marks about the hit tool. I'm not ruling him out but HS competition is very weak and how he does against the average 76 mph HS starter doesn't tell much, watch very closely how he does against 90+ in the big showcases. IF he hits 450 in HS but shifts a ton in showcases I would stay away.

I think the obp will be similar to Eckstein but madrigal will have more power. Eckstein averaged like 6 homers a year. Madrigal has shown little power but most scouts still think he will grow into 10-15 homer power. Eckstein was a 350/350 hitter and I think madrigal will be more like 350/420 (opb/slg)