Dominikk85

Getting donaldson on the cheap wouldn't be bad but only if the contract reflects both a risk of diminished performance and lost playing time. Can't bank on him for more than 130 games anymore. But if you get him for 3/40 or so it would be interesting even if it is just to trade him later.

I could see several things happening next year. Losing kopech hurts and probably costs them like 3 wins but if moncada peogresses, the young starters keep progressing and eloy has a huge rookie year like acuna plus the pen holds up they could win mid 80s. But of course the opposite could happen too, anderson, davidson and rondon regress, abreu declines, moncada doesn't get better and eloy is solid but not great and they lose 90 games again. Imo winning 80 next year and having the young guys progress would be a big success.

Actually the white sox have had one of the lower injury rates in the majors the last 6-7 years.

Actually it was probably good. Ucl tears don't happen at once but are usually weakened over time due to repetive stress. Maybe it would have recovered over the off season but more likely it would have torn anyway like next spring so his comeback would have been pushed back another 5-6 months. Still sucks but recovery rate from tj is quite good. Bad thing is that it hurts the chance of a surprise breakout like the braves had. But the timing is much better than spring which basically means almost 2 full missed seasons while he has a good chance to be back in the first half of 2020 with average recovery time being like 18 months.

I would not extend abreu either but I don't buy Davidson either. The walks are a good improvement but he is 27 and has a 119 wrc+ with a .327 babip. Give him a 300 babip and he is a .215 hitter. With 12% walks and 35 homers that still has value (Chris carter style) but it is probably only an average bat at first/dh. Btw regarding abreu I'm pretty sure he was hurt. He was good in April and May, then hit like a pitcher in June July and was good again in August. Overall he still has a 119 season wRC+. They should try to trade him next season as soon as possible when he is healthy and performing because I don't think his health will hold well into his mid 30s.

The sox are "Hurt" by playing in a terrible division, in the AL east they probably would have lost 100 games.

It is a good sign, especially the velo and Ks but he had stretches like this before and then cratered again. Maybe he finally figured it out but I'm not holding my breath until he shows he can do it consistently.

Actually the trend is going away from chasing ceiling. In the early to mid 00s teams tried to find the player with the highest upside (99-05 just one college player went first overall), but percentage of prep first rounders has been falling and teams pick more based on floor compared to 10-15 years ago. Maybe this trend will roll back some time in the future but right now it is how it is. Teams are not totally against prep talent but you only take them first if you are sure about them. If there is any doubt about a HS player (position, bat to ball skill, health) the player will drop very quickly. Most only take high schoolers first overall if they believe he is a generational talent.

Well all people in the industry had madrigal near the top. Also many people believe he can turn into a 15-20 homer guy with a couple pounds more and a slight change to the swing path. Longenhagen had madrigal and mize as the two best guys. Now if madrigal really turns out to be a 5 homer guy that wouldn't be good but most scouts see him at least at 10-15

Interesting podcast with sporer. Fantasy focused but still very interesting talking about the pitch arsenal and peripherals of kopech, giolito and others. https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/category/podcast/

The idea is nice but wrong. People use false logic here (also in the draft), yes there are late successes and early busts but stats really show that the high picks perform much better statistically. Yes first overall picks have busted and pujols was a 13th rounder but the vast majority of 10+ round picks and 10k signings never make it past A ball. You just don't have a glass ball to look into thethe future.

Very different hitter though. Ramirez was a high contact low power guy who developed huge power suddenly (anyone suspicious?) while moncada always had power but also contact issues.

He needs to elevate the ball more. He doesn't need to be a launch angle guy but over 50% grounders is too much. Low to mid 40s would be better. However this is his first crack at this level of pitching. Maybe he needs to adjust his bat path or maybe the pitches just get on him a little quickly as his pull rate is very low too. Sometimes hitters just need to time velo better and catch it more out front.

A lot can change until next year. At this stage usually HS guys are at the top (two years ago Greene, last year de sedas) but the weeks before the draft the HS guys fall and college performers raise. The fact that a college guy leads the pack increases his chance to stay there vs a HS pick (change of guys like witt falling is much higher) but he still needs to perform and stay healthy or he could drop a lot. But yeah if he performs (300+ with 15 homers) he has a great chance of staying at the top but he needs to do that first.

Btw I could totally see madrigal putting on 15 pounds this offseason and hitting 12-15 next year. But of course gorman has more power and if his k rate is staying high (he could correct that though) he is going to need the power. For madrigal the power is a bonus he probably would be a league average hitter with 10 homers a year.

I think top 5 should be a pretty sure thing now, although the deadline depleted marlins and Padres are still dangerous. Should end somewhere between 3 and 5 unless they really go on a hot streak.

It depends on what you mean with best player. At draft day most people knew he wouldn't be the best player of the draft but he was the safest bet to be a 3-4 win player. Players like Gorman and some others always had a higher ceiling but also a very high bust chance. Gorman looks good now and could very well be a better player than madrigal but the bust risk is still higher than madrigal (after destroying rookie ball he currently is striking out 37% in A ball although admittedly in a small sample). Today many teams prefer avoiding busts over taking a shot in finding a superstar.

Kopech up. I don't really understand it. Eloy I even would have understood (although I prefer him staying down for service time reasons) as eloy is clearly getting bored in AAA and not learning anything but kopech while his stuff is mlb ready still needs to improve his control, as evidenced by his 4+ bb9. Putting the ball in box is a thing he can learn in AAA, he doesn't need to face mlb hitters to do that. Btw I don't think eloy is hurt by staying down more. Currently he is not developing at the level (maybe defensively) but with his k-bb rate I'm not worried about the jump, I could see him starting out like Soto or Hoskins. That is different from moncada who also dominated AAA ball but did it with high strikeouts and a super high babip.

They absolutely shouldn't be up until late April next year, why waste service time on a 90+ loss team?

He is fantastic but sox had to trade him because they were going to suck anyway the next years. They got a great return too with a then 70 fv prospect in moncada and a 55 in kopech. Basabe has turned into a 50 too so overall it was a great trade, hopefully moncada can turn into a 3+ win player at least.

His contact and hit for average ability is as advertised with an almost non existent K rate and a 300+ average. He also posted only a .070 iso with no homers, but I'm not worried about that, he will probably add 15 pounds to his small frame, lift some more balls and become a 15 hr hitter. I don't quite like his walk rate of about 5% so far,as a non elite power guy obp is really his calling card and while his average will probably keep his obp on a good level I would like to see a few more walks

I'm not saying the process isn't good, just that many prospects were either injured or have not progressed. Hahn did everything right, now the prospects need to step up.

The rebuild isn't going that well currently but I don't think Hahn can be blamed for everyone getting hurt. Maybe a small blame can be put on the minor league fitness coaching and medical staff but then again health was one of the few things that worked well for the sox in the 12-16 time frame. Maybe it was just bad luck. Health is a big issue for everyone in mlb and if the sox want to win this needs to get better.

I think sox will be 5th in the end. KC, SD, Miami and Baltimore just "improved " more at the deadline when it comes to losing because they had more talent to sell than the sox. Especially the relievers traded will really "help" those teams, there will be a .ot of blown leads. Top5 pick is fine though, although 3 of course would be better.

A lot of young players are up but not many have been really good. Also a lot of good prospects are still down. Which pieces of the current mlb players do you think will be significant pieces and who will be pushed out or relegated to a bench role?