Dominikk85

The question is whether he really got better or is just seeing more September call up dickshots. Moncada was always pretty decent at making contact near the middle of the plate, he simply couldn't touch anything that was near any of the zone edges. https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=17232&position=2B&ss=&se=&hand=&count=&pitch=&season=&data=&blur=&grid=&view=&type=3 Here it looks like it indeed got a little better. Still big hole down but more coverage on the inside from the left side. Zone looks a little bigger. https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=17232&position=2B&ss=2018-09-01&se=2018-09-22&type=3&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=bat&pitch=&season=all&data=

Schwarber is a 35+ homer guy though. 30% Ks can work if you have a good walk rate (which moncada has) and plus power (which he has hinted at but not shown consistently). If moncada could become a 35+ homer hitter with 12% walks and a 250 BA he is essentially adam dunn (not the washed up one that played for the sox) which would be fine.

I prefer davidson slightly because he has improved his plate discipline. Both whiff a lot and have power but MD takes walks. Palka is more like 2017 MD before the plate discipline spike. Now palka has shown a little more power but unless he has a similar approach adjustment like MD I don't buy in.

I think fangraphs changed their rating a little overall in that they now give all pitchers a slight risk tax for being a pitcher and they now follow a bit more the cubs model of "building through hitting" simply because hitters flame out less often due to injuries. They just have 4 pitchers in the top20 now, it is basically now every pitcher gets half a grade discount to their FV just for being a pitcher. Statistically this is probably the right thing to do because so many pitchers get hurt.

It is a good sign but you have to consider it is shitty September pitching. Still better but we need to see if he can sustain this

As a hitting coach in amateur ball here is what I would do (of course the real hitting coaches should know better than me but I will give my opinion anyway): Work on one of the weaknesses during the winter. You cant correct everything at once and even some great hitters have one bad edge so I would work hard on pitches either up or down all winter. The middle he can handle anyway and if he than also can handle one of the other boundaries this leaves less room for the pitchers to attack him. Ideally he should master at least two of the 4 edges (down-in, down-away, up-in, up-away). So for example he could work all winter on inside pitches and low pitches, middle he can handle anyway. If he can master this he would be much more dangerous. What makes it more complicated is that he is a switch hitter, that is two swings to maintain. I'm not a fan of bad switch hitters. If you are good like lindor that is great but if you have severe holes to stuff that becomes much harder when switch hitting. Maybe it even could be a consideration to give up on his righty swing at some point but for now that is probably not an option.

No he doesn't swing at them because he is a smart guy and knows he can't hit them. His heat map when he swings is also down the pipe. This is actually a good thing because heat and swing map should match somewhat but it becomes a problem once pitchers realize what you are looking for. He simply needs to cover more of the zone. Especially low in the zone his contact rate is super low while in the middle it is ok

Btw here is his distribution by statcast. Called strike 3s: Clearly in zone: 22 Slightly outside but on edge: 47 Way outside the zone: 3 Yeah he does get screwed some but he also takes a lot of strikes and borderline pitches. Against those 3 way outside he shouldn't swing but certainly at the 22 inside and probably at a lot of the 47 on the edges. He just takes a huge amount of pitches on the edges in and out of the zone. He probably got screwed some on borderline pitches but even votto who has the best reputation in baseball got rung up 28 times on borderline pitches slightly outside. But we can do the comparison: Edge two strike pitches: Moncada -ball 67 -strike 47 41% called strike Votto -ball 57 -strike 28 33% You can see that moncada got screwed some but this is compared to the guy with the best reputation in baseball. Compared to votto that cost him 10 looking Ks which is a lot but compared to the average player it is probably more like 4-5 which is still significant but not as big. You can see he does get screwed some but it is not like he is rung up on pitches way outside a ton, it happened a handful of times but mostly he got rung up on strikes and close balls.

It is not good but it probably also means that he takes a lot of borderline pitches and even strikes with two strikes. He is generally a rather passive hitter at 60% zone swing although he also does have a very good eye (23% Chase rate). Thus he probably got a reputation of being willing to take called strikes leading to close calls against him. I would prefer robot umps too but so far it is not coming and umps don't appreciate players taking 2 strike pitches half an inch outside. You don't need to chase but general understanding is that with two strikes you don't let the umpire decide on pitches that are 1-2 inches outside the zone. Imo moncada should be more aggressive within the zone. He should keep his Chase rate down but 60% zone swing is too low (league average is high 60s). For example votto is also very patient but he has a z swing rate of 68%, this means more hittable pitches going through. But moncada also needs to increase his real strike zone he can handle. If you look at his heatmap you see he basically only hits down the pipe well https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=17232&position=2B&ss=&se=&hand=&count=&pitch=&season=&data=&blur=&grid=&view=&type=5 Having one hole is ok, but if you can just hit down the pipe that works in the minors but not in the majors. His swing rates reflect that, he basically only swings a lot down the pipe and takes more than half of the strikes at all 4 edges. This is a good adjustment to make if you can't hit those pitches but as soon pitchers recognize that and locate there it becomes a losing strategy. Moncada needs to hit pitches that are not down the pipe better, at least on two of the 4 eďges. I know you shouldn't make that comparison but here is trouts map. Trout also has a hole (up) but he covers all of the lower edge (actually beyond the zone), inside (except up and in which nobody covers well) and like most the outer half. https://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&ss=&se=&hand=&count=&pitch=&season=&data=&blur=&grid=&view=&type=5 Such a pattern is much harder to pitch to than moncada who can be attacked down, up or in. At this point moncada is basically a patient mistake crusher which has some value but limits his hit tool especially against good pitchers.

Btw do you think his reduced velo in his mlb starts already were caused by the injury? The media narrative was he intentionally took something off and preferred strikes at 95-96 over a wild 100+ and the results were solid (except for his last start) despite lower than normal k rates for him because he didn't walk many guys but maybe this already was a sign of his injury.

Yes, if you send him down you stop the clock but you don't get the lost time back. You can send him down as often as you want as long he has minor league options. After that you can send him down too but then other teams could pick him up so you wouldn't do that with top players.

Getting donaldson on the cheap wouldn't be bad but only if the contract reflects both a risk of diminished performance and lost playing time. Can't bank on him for more than 130 games anymore. But if you get him for 3/40 or so it would be interesting even if it is just to trade him later.

I could see several things happening next year. Losing kopech hurts and probably costs them like 3 wins but if moncada peogresses, the young starters keep progressing and eloy has a huge rookie year like acuna plus the pen holds up they could win mid 80s. But of course the opposite could happen too, anderson, davidson and rondon regress, abreu declines, moncada doesn't get better and eloy is solid but not great and they lose 90 games again. Imo winning 80 next year and having the young guys progress would be a big success.

Actually the white sox have had one of the lower injury rates in the majors the last 6-7 years.

Actually it was probably good. Ucl tears don't happen at once but are usually weakened over time due to repetive stress. Maybe it would have recovered over the off season but more likely it would have torn anyway like next spring so his comeback would have been pushed back another 5-6 months. Still sucks but recovery rate from tj is quite good. Bad thing is that it hurts the chance of a surprise breakout like the braves had. But the timing is much better than spring which basically means almost 2 full missed seasons while he has a good chance to be back in the first half of 2020 with average recovery time being like 18 months.

I would not extend abreu either but I don't buy Davidson either. The walks are a good improvement but he is 27 and has a 119 wrc+ with a .327 babip. Give him a 300 babip and he is a .215 hitter. With 12% walks and 35 homers that still has value (Chris carter style) but it is probably only an average bat at first/dh. Btw regarding abreu I'm pretty sure he was hurt. He was good in April and May, then hit like a pitcher in June July and was good again in August. Overall he still has a 119 season wRC+. They should try to trade him next season as soon as possible when he is healthy and performing because I don't think his health will hold well into his mid 30s.

The sox are "Hurt" by playing in a terrible division, in the AL east they probably would have lost 100 games.

It is a good sign, especially the velo and Ks but he had stretches like this before and then cratered again. Maybe he finally figured it out but I'm not holding my breath until he shows he can do it consistently.

Actually the trend is going away from chasing ceiling. In the early to mid 00s teams tried to find the player with the highest upside (99-05 just one college player went first overall), but percentage of prep first rounders has been falling and teams pick more based on floor compared to 10-15 years ago. Maybe this trend will roll back some time in the future but right now it is how it is. Teams are not totally against prep talent but you only take them first if you are sure about them. If there is any doubt about a HS player (position, bat to ball skill, health) the player will drop very quickly. Most only take high schoolers first overall if they believe he is a generational talent.

Well all people in the industry had madrigal near the top. Also many people believe he can turn into a 15-20 homer guy with a couple pounds more and a slight change to the swing path. Longenhagen had madrigal and mize as the two best guys. Now if madrigal really turns out to be a 5 homer guy that wouldn't be good but most scouts see him at least at 10-15

Interesting podcast with sporer. Fantasy focused but still very interesting talking about the pitch arsenal and peripherals of kopech, giolito and others. https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/category/podcast/

The idea is nice but wrong. People use false logic here (also in the draft), yes there are late successes and early busts but stats really show that the high picks perform much better statistically. Yes first overall picks have busted and pujols was a 13th rounder but the vast majority of 10+ round picks and 10k signings never make it past A ball. You just don't have a glass ball to look into thethe future.

Very different hitter though. Ramirez was a high contact low power guy who developed huge power suddenly (anyone suspicious?) while moncada always had power but also contact issues.

He needs to elevate the ball more. He doesn't need to be a launch angle guy but over 50% grounders is too much. Low to mid 40s would be better. However this is his first crack at this level of pitching. Maybe he needs to adjust his bat path or maybe the pitches just get on him a little quickly as his pull rate is very low too. Sometimes hitters just need to time velo better and catch it more out front.

A lot can change until next year. At this stage usually HS guys are at the top (two years ago Greene, last year de sedas) but the weeks before the draft the HS guys fall and college performers raise. The fact that a college guy leads the pack increases his chance to stay there vs a HS pick (change of guys like witt falling is much higher) but he still needs to perform and stay healthy or he could drop a lot. But yeah if he performs (300+ with 15 homers) he has a great chance of staying at the top but he needs to do that first.