Dominikk85

Not Sure about this, the Padres really sold a lot at the deadline, they are now a much worse team than in the first half. However I think draft position should be only a secondary consideration here, service time is the bigger reason.

I think they need to keep him down longer. I think it won't be april but next super two. Btw I don't think this will be a problem. Yeah he will hate that but those top10 overall prospects don't sign extension anyway, they wait for free agency and then take the best offer no matter what happened before. The guys you can extend are the guys who are good out of nowhere like odubel Herrera, adam eaton or jose ramirez.

Some teams did try to draft relievers in the late first round hoping they would arrive quickly. I'm not a fan of this. However 3rd to 5th round it isn't bad, there are not many college pitchers who make good mlb starters past round 2. So why not draft a reliever in round 4 instead of a potential bench bat?

The sox need prospects to make an impact. The cubs had bryant, Russell, schwarber, hendricks all being above average to star instantly, only baez took some time. The sox need eloy, kopech to do the same and moncada and one of lopez/giolito making a step forward like baez did.if that happens they can compete quickly.

I think a top5 pick should be pretty sure but I don't quite see top3. The padres and orioles just gave up much more at the deadline and should falter even more. Marlins also have the potential to get much worse when they trade some relievers or realmuto. I could see the sox "beating out" the royals or tigers but not a sure thing either.

When the rebuild started the system was heavy on pitchers and some sox fans wondered why Hahn wasn't more like Theo and invested on hitters. But now it seems to be almost vice versa, the strength of the system is hitting (mostly outfield) and the pitching side doesn't look that great. Giolito and lopez werent good in the majors so far and fulmer had to be relegated to the pen. Kopech seems to be good (although walks are a little high) but who will be the guys behind him? Hopefully it can be rendon but there are concerns. Should the sox change minor league pitching coaching?

Maybe it was a bias against Ks. Back then many coaches considered you a better hitter if you struck out a lot, even if there was power. Back then Ks were considered a disgrace and players were evaluated by average and not OPS. They probably thought with the Ks he couldn't hit for average in the majors. Btw his first 3 years he was pretty good in the majors averaging like 30 bombs although the average was around 230.

Btw is abreu Hurt? April and May he basically was normal abreu but June he had a 600 ops and July even under 500. With a normal slump it is almost impossible to be that bad.

Good for both teams.meija is a very good prospect but the Indians clearly think he is not able to catch well in the big leagues evidenced by them giving him reps at third and the OF. Meija has a great arm but his framing is supposed to be weak. 10 years ago anyone would have loved him at catcher but the evaluation of catchers has clearly changed due to framing.

I read somewhere that his dad worked in construction.

The problem is never approach or patience, every single hitter in mlb, milb, college or HS knows it is bad to swing at balls. The issue is pitch recognition which is tough to do because hitters have to decide roughly when the pitch is a little past halfway home. This is not easy to teach, but some modern franchises like the Astros have invented vision and tracking drills. For example some teams like the dbacks have worked with pitch tunnels (basically imagining a zone halfway home the pitch has to pass through as a swing trigger). This isn't 100% bullet proof though as tunnels can make you more susceptible to certain FB breaking ball sequences but There are things you can do. Still doesn't work with everyone of course, some never learn to recognize pitches, because it is damn hard to decide 25 feet away wether a 95 mph throw will be a strike or not.

This is definitely not the expectation. The goal should be to compete for 5-6 years and make the postseason at least 3-4 times during that window. Hopefully it culminates with a WS appearance but you can't plan that. The ideal outcome of the rebuild would be what the nats did 2012-17 but with a few more playoff series wins:).

GMs are not allowed to be honest in that regard due to marketing and ticket sales. Even Epstein said stuff like this ("every season is scared"...). But everyone still knows what is happening.

Btw the sox could also consider eating 7-8 m of his salary to make him more attractive. Abreu is currently in a slump but still more analytic teams who look projections and not justvatcrecent batting line might take a chance.

I would be extremely happy if eloy posted a 298/355/519 line with 30 homers like abreu did over his career. Wouldn't rule it out but it is not guaranteed either.

Well he is also over 30 years old and has just two years left and he isn't super cheap either. Regarding the 1b are easy to find this is also partly true albeit abreu is a 70 hitter (playing more like a 65 due to low walks) while most of the cheap sluggers are 40 to 45 bats (240-250, sometimes worse). But he still of course is a 31 yo bad glove first baseman with two years of contract even though his bat is elite (current abreu bat is probably the ceiling of top sox prospects eloy and robert). Getting a top100 and a nice filler would be good.

I think you can get a 50 fv guy (whether he is ranked 57 or 110 on the top100 doesn't make that much of a difference but you won't get a 55+ (and certainly no 60+) for abreu. Not all 50s are totally equal of course but the difference between the 10th and 30th prospect is much bigger than the difference between 50 and 90. A 50 and a strong 40 would be a good return for him.

Well good stuff basically means swing and misses regardless of velo. When a guy has elite stuff he gets swings and misses on chases but also within the zone. It is good to get chases a few inches off or on a high fastball but when you watch guys like scherzer they will get some misses on pretty fat pitches. That doesn't mean he can survive throwing dickshots all the time, he needs to locate too but it helps if you fall behind to be able to throw a slightly elevated fastball middle in and still get a miss or foul. Zone contact% is a good indicator. League average is around 85%. If it is 80 it is great, approaching high 80s is worrisome (can find z con on fangraphs player page under plate discipline).

I was just saying that with elite swing and miss stuff command doesn't need to be perfect. Johnson of course is a 99.99th percentile outcome, nobody is as good as him. However of course 5+ bb/9 is not going to cut it for kopech, he either would get shellacked or alternatively if he didn't give in be maybe could make it through 4 and then he has to be pulled with 100 pitches. His command doesn't need to be perfect but 5+ walks clearly won't work and he needs more time unless it is a one inning reliever role.

moncada doesn't really suck. He has a K problem and needs to tap into more power to compensate for that but he actually did a step in the right direction this year so far lowering his ground ball rate to under 40%. Overall he was about a league average to slightly below hitter playing about average defense in the infield. he hasn't been a star yet and might never be but he is on pace for like 2.5 WAR. If moncada improves his K rate and power a little more to maybe 30% Ks and a .220 ISO while keeping his solid 9-10% walk rates which is not unreasonable he could be a 110 wRC+ hitter with like 3.5 WAR per year. 3.5 WAR is a 60FV in prospect terms. Now people hoped he could become a 280 hitter with 35+ bombs and that might never happen but if he becomes a 240/330/450 hitter with solid defense that wouldn't be terrible and that outcome is still very possible and wouldn't require a huge performance jump. Giolito is a different case tough, he still is very young but he flat out sucked so far. problem with him is that so far there are little positive signs. with pitcher you want at least one of strikeouts and walks to be solid. if giolito would have a 7 ERA by giving up a ton of walks and homers but striking out a lot of guys that wouldn't be nice but at least there was hope. but very low Ks and very high walks isn't a bad combination. now he might find a whiff pitch he can lean on and improve his control but at this point it is defintely a big hill to climb. now many guys at his age are still in the minors but if you don't have swing and miss stuff AND bad control that isn't a good sign, there isn't even a clear elite reliever path for him due to the lack of a single wipeout pitch which most relievers have at least one (of course he could maybe throw 96 for one inning out of the pen but a straight 96 isn't that special anymore for a reliever if there is not a good breaking ball) . I'm not writing him off yet but I'm sceptical.

His command has improved but around 4.5-5 walks per 9 is still too high. Good mlb starters usually walk around 2 per 9. With elite stuff like kopech has you can get away with 3 but 4+ is reliever territory. He doesn't need elite command (Randy Johnson never had elite command either and walked like 3 most of his career) but he needs to keep it in check a little more.

I am for keeping kopech and eloy down this year. sucks for the players but half a year in the minors doesn't make anyone worse and too many prospects won't be up until 2020. need to syncronize the prospects.

some of the starting prospects will also probably end up in the pen. You try to make everyone a starter but for some the control or third pitch might not quite get good enough and then they will be tried in the pen

Yes. Often this is sign of the UCL giving out again. If the UCL gives out the pronator flexor muscles try to take over for the UCL and are overloaded subsequently and then you get a strain.

they could also not draft a catcher and package 3 of their prospects for a really good catcher like realmuto or so.