Dominikk85

I would be extremely happy if eloy posted a 298/355/519 line with 30 homers like abreu did over his career. Wouldn't rule it out but it is not guaranteed either.

Well he is also over 30 years old and has just two years left and he isn't super cheap either. Regarding the 1b are easy to find this is also partly true albeit abreu is a 70 hitter (playing more like a 65 due to low walks) while most of the cheap sluggers are 40 to 45 bats (240-250, sometimes worse). But he still of course is a 31 yo bad glove first baseman with two years of contract even though his bat is elite (current abreu bat is probably the ceiling of top sox prospects eloy and robert). Getting a top100 and a nice filler would be good.

I think you can get a 50 fv guy (whether he is ranked 57 or 110 on the top100 doesn't make that much of a difference but you won't get a 55+ (and certainly no 60+) for abreu. Not all 50s are totally equal of course but the difference between the 10th and 30th prospect is much bigger than the difference between 50 and 90. A 50 and a strong 40 would be a good return for him.

Well good stuff basically means swing and misses regardless of velo. When a guy has elite stuff he gets swings and misses on chases but also within the zone. It is good to get chases a few inches off or on a high fastball but when you watch guys like scherzer they will get some misses on pretty fat pitches. That doesn't mean he can survive throwing dickshots all the time, he needs to locate too but it helps if you fall behind to be able to throw a slightly elevated fastball middle in and still get a miss or foul. Zone contact% is a good indicator. League average is around 85%. If it is 80 it is great, approaching high 80s is worrisome (can find z con on fangraphs player page under plate discipline).

I was just saying that with elite swing and miss stuff command doesn't need to be perfect. Johnson of course is a 99.99th percentile outcome, nobody is as good as him. However of course 5+ bb/9 is not going to cut it for kopech, he either would get shellacked or alternatively if he didn't give in be maybe could make it through 4 and then he has to be pulled with 100 pitches. His command doesn't need to be perfect but 5+ walks clearly won't work and he needs more time unless it is a one inning reliever role.

moncada doesn't really suck. He has a K problem and needs to tap into more power to compensate for that but he actually did a step in the right direction this year so far lowering his ground ball rate to under 40%. Overall he was about a league average to slightly below hitter playing about average defense in the infield. he hasn't been a star yet and might never be but he is on pace for like 2.5 WAR. If moncada improves his K rate and power a little more to maybe 30% Ks and a .220 ISO while keeping his solid 9-10% walk rates which is not unreasonable he could be a 110 wRC+ hitter with like 3.5 WAR per year. 3.5 WAR is a 60FV in prospect terms. Now people hoped he could become a 280 hitter with 35+ bombs and that might never happen but if he becomes a 240/330/450 hitter with solid defense that wouldn't be terrible and that outcome is still very possible and wouldn't require a huge performance jump. Giolito is a different case tough, he still is very young but he flat out sucked so far. problem with him is that so far there are little positive signs. with pitcher you want at least one of strikeouts and walks to be solid. if giolito would have a 7 ERA by giving up a ton of walks and homers but striking out a lot of guys that wouldn't be nice but at least there was hope. but very low Ks and very high walks isn't a bad combination. now he might find a whiff pitch he can lean on and improve his control but at this point it is defintely a big hill to climb. now many guys at his age are still in the minors but if you don't have swing and miss stuff AND bad control that isn't a good sign, there isn't even a clear elite reliever path for him due to the lack of a single wipeout pitch which most relievers have at least one (of course he could maybe throw 96 for one inning out of the pen but a straight 96 isn't that special anymore for a reliever if there is not a good breaking ball) . I'm not writing him off yet but I'm sceptical.

His command has improved but around 4.5-5 walks per 9 is still too high. Good mlb starters usually walk around 2 per 9. With elite stuff like kopech has you can get away with 3 but 4+ is reliever territory. He doesn't need elite command (Randy Johnson never had elite command either and walked like 3 most of his career) but he needs to keep it in check a little more.

I am for keeping kopech and eloy down this year. sucks for the players but half a year in the minors doesn't make anyone worse and too many prospects won't be up until 2020. need to syncronize the prospects.

some of the starting prospects will also probably end up in the pen. You try to make everyone a starter but for some the control or third pitch might not quite get good enough and then they will be tried in the pen

Yes. Often this is sign of the UCL giving out again. If the UCL gives out the pronator flexor muscles try to take over for the UCL and are overloaded subsequently and then you get a strain.

they could also not draft a catcher and package 3 of their prospects for a really good catcher like realmuto or so.

Definitely. There is still blocking and controlling the running game but if framing is out I think we will see mike napoli types catching again.

sanchez wasn't a lottery ticket though, he was super highly rated and one of the most expensive J2 signings. that is basically the same as a top10 draft pick.

bryce harper also was drafted as a catcher as was josh donaldson. the big issue is staying at catcher . the requirements of catching are so tough that many if not most guys who are drafted as catchers can't play there in the bigs (many because of the bat and others because of defense). you just don't have enough data from amateur ball and scouting can only tell you so much. also many good catchers are now international guys. this is a trend in mlb. the "easy" positions like first base and outfield are played by american players and the skill positions like middle IF and catcher are played by international guys. it seems like those countries are better at developing those skills.

A problem is also that the requirements for catchers have changed because of framing stats. 10 years ago teams would let good hitting bat first catchers like napoli, Vmart or carlos santana catch because they tought the positional gain would outweigh the loss on defense but then came framing stats and said that this has a huge effect. because of that teams now rather play an 85 wRC+ catcher than a 115 wRC+ catcher who sucks defensively. 10 years ago collins probably would have caught but now the reuqirements have changed.

You have to consider aging curves. players decline about 0.5 WAR per year from age 30-35. if we assume he is now a true talent 3.5 war player you would expect to get like 3, 2.5, 2 and 1.5 war or 9 WAR in 4 years. that is not bad and likely a bit better than what you would get from collins/burger/palka/davidson and it is actually worth around 80M but on the other hand you can get 1.5-2 WAR or so per year for about the minimum in the corner bat heavy sox system. that is only like 2-3 war less over 4 years but it frees a lot of ressources. abreu is good but he probably has seen his peak and trading him wouldn't be a bad idea. He could be solid the next 4 years but I would spend the ressources on maybe extending moncada or signing a new pitcher or a stud bat.

a 50 FV is pretty good for a 1b/DH prospect. 50 FV means league average player in their prime and with 1B you have to hit above average (around a 110-115 wRC+ to be a league average player due to the positional adjustment. If collins hits .250/350/450 with 25 homers that would be about a 110-115 wRC+ which should make him a league average 1B with average defense. if he could play a decent catcher that could change the outlook of course. maybe they could occasionally catch him and play him mostly at 1B/DH

kopech has some reliever risk too but his stuff is so dominant that it could play with less than ideal control (say like Yu darvish) plus also his relief floor (unless he gets hurt) is elite closer which still is like a 50-55 FV. cease had more injury problems and he could become a very good reliever too but probably not chapman/kimbrel good which kopech could be if starting doesn't work.

Also almost all of his pitches are terrible. We knew his FB is bad if it is under 95 (straight and mediocre spin) and his change isn't the greatest but his CB which was highly touted also has negative pitch value on FG. the only pitch with a positive value is his slider. that is a good thing and maybe he should ramp it's usage up but then again it is just one good pitch. maybe this at least gives him a reliever floor because one solid pitch obviously isn't getting it done twice or thrice through the lineup.

unless it is a cheap extension. he is a risk for getting injured again but if he signed something cheap like 3/35 or so his contract could turn into a bargain (like quintana and sale) if he is healthy and dealing and in case he busts it is a sunk cost. giving him a triple digit extension would indeed be foolish, especially because he under contract through 2021. I would actually like such an extension. In case he has career ending injury (shoulder is always risky) he is set for life and if he gets healthy and good sox have him through most of their window of contention.

trade every reliever. the elite ones are gone (unless jones comes back strong and healthy) but you still might get a return plus it helps to get another top3 pick if you have a couple bullpen implosions:). would also trade abreu if the offer is right (a top100 or non top100 50 and a filler).

who said they won't produce? it is just not super likely that one outproduces abreu's 70 hit tool and 65 power which is really rare among prospects. that doesn't mean the rebuild is a bad idea. It is very likely that the top3 in WAR of the 2022 sox won't match the combined WAR of sale, quintana and abreu of the 2014 sox but the team still will be better because of much better depth. depth is super important in the modern game and that is what the rebuild is about, not about improving the top3-4 players.

I agree. I would be open to trade him for a good package due to his age and contract situation but don't assume that every prospect just because it is on a top100 hits better than he does because the vast majority of top prospects does not. In fact I would be thrilled if any sox top prospect including eloy would hit like abreu in their prime. abreu had one not so good season but he still produced a 120 wRC+ that year. in his career he had a 138 wRC+ which ranks 7th among 1Bs during that time. if you look at the last 3 years (actually 2.5) he also is 7th at a 130 wRC+ (and pretty close to 4th-6th). that is not frank thomas level of course but definitely elite. now his defense is bad but he still is 7th in WAR since 2016 and 6th since 2014. Sox fans should be thrilled if the next sox 1B is as good as he is. that doesn't mean it can't happen but it is not guaranteed or even likely by any stretch.

It was a moto cycling accident and being hit by a ball on the hand, not sure if you should call that breaking down. However of course we don't know the long term implications of the bike accident, maybe it has weakened his shoulder.

His defense isn't good but he has an .883 career OPS with a .300 average and like 30 bombs per year. overall he is definitely one of the better first basemen and there is no guarantee that any of the prospects who replace him will be nearly as good with the bat, that is basically a 70 bat (albeit probably plays more like a 65 due to the low walk rates) and 65 power, which not many pospects project for. I still see the value in trading him as he is a FA in 2020 and might start to decline soon at age 31. But only do it for a real return, if you only get a 45 and a 40 prospect you can just as well keep him as a buddy for moncada and robert and get the comp pick in 2020. but if someone offers you a top100 prospect and a filler I would probably do it and trade him because a comp pick only projects as a 40 or so on average and a top100 is clearly better than that, especially if you get that 40 as a secondary guy too.