Dominikk85

Definitely. There is still blocking and controlling the running game but if framing is out I think we will see mike napoli types catching again.

sanchez wasn't a lottery ticket though, he was super highly rated and one of the most expensive J2 signings. that is basically the same as a top10 draft pick.

bryce harper also was drafted as a catcher as was josh donaldson. the big issue is staying at catcher . the requirements of catching are so tough that many if not most guys who are drafted as catchers can't play there in the bigs (many because of the bat and others because of defense). you just don't have enough data from amateur ball and scouting can only tell you so much. also many good catchers are now international guys. this is a trend in mlb. the "easy" positions like first base and outfield are played by american players and the skill positions like middle IF and catcher are played by international guys. it seems like those countries are better at developing those skills.

A problem is also that the requirements for catchers have changed because of framing stats. 10 years ago teams would let good hitting bat first catchers like napoli, Vmart or carlos santana catch because they tought the positional gain would outweigh the loss on defense but then came framing stats and said that this has a huge effect. because of that teams now rather play an 85 wRC+ catcher than a 115 wRC+ catcher who sucks defensively. 10 years ago collins probably would have caught but now the reuqirements have changed.

You have to consider aging curves. players decline about 0.5 WAR per year from age 30-35. if we assume he is now a true talent 3.5 war player you would expect to get like 3, 2.5, 2 and 1.5 war or 9 WAR in 4 years. that is not bad and likely a bit better than what you would get from collins/burger/palka/davidson and it is actually worth around 80M but on the other hand you can get 1.5-2 WAR or so per year for about the minimum in the corner bat heavy sox system. that is only like 2-3 war less over 4 years but it frees a lot of ressources. abreu is good but he probably has seen his peak and trading him wouldn't be a bad idea. He could be solid the next 4 years but I would spend the ressources on maybe extending moncada or signing a new pitcher or a stud bat.

a 50 FV is pretty good for a 1b/DH prospect. 50 FV means league average player in their prime and with 1B you have to hit above average (around a 110-115 wRC+ to be a league average player due to the positional adjustment. If collins hits .250/350/450 with 25 homers that would be about a 110-115 wRC+ which should make him a league average 1B with average defense. if he could play a decent catcher that could change the outlook of course. maybe they could occasionally catch him and play him mostly at 1B/DH

kopech has some reliever risk too but his stuff is so dominant that it could play with less than ideal control (say like Yu darvish) plus also his relief floor (unless he gets hurt) is elite closer which still is like a 50-55 FV. cease had more injury problems and he could become a very good reliever too but probably not chapman/kimbrel good which kopech could be if starting doesn't work.

Also almost all of his pitches are terrible. We knew his FB is bad if it is under 95 (straight and mediocre spin) and his change isn't the greatest but his CB which was highly touted also has negative pitch value on FG. the only pitch with a positive value is his slider. that is a good thing and maybe he should ramp it's usage up but then again it is just one good pitch. maybe this at least gives him a reliever floor because one solid pitch obviously isn't getting it done twice or thrice through the lineup.

unless it is a cheap extension. he is a risk for getting injured again but if he signed something cheap like 3/35 or so his contract could turn into a bargain (like quintana and sale) if he is healthy and dealing and in case he busts it is a sunk cost. giving him a triple digit extension would indeed be foolish, especially because he under contract through 2021. I would actually like such an extension. In case he has career ending injury (shoulder is always risky) he is set for life and if he gets healthy and good sox have him through most of their window of contention.

trade every reliever. the elite ones are gone (unless jones comes back strong and healthy) but you still might get a return plus it helps to get another top3 pick if you have a couple bullpen implosions:). would also trade abreu if the offer is right (a top100 or non top100 50 and a filler).

who said they won't produce? it is just not super likely that one outproduces abreu's 70 hit tool and 65 power which is really rare among prospects. that doesn't mean the rebuild is a bad idea. It is very likely that the top3 in WAR of the 2022 sox won't match the combined WAR of sale, quintana and abreu of the 2014 sox but the team still will be better because of much better depth. depth is super important in the modern game and that is what the rebuild is about, not about improving the top3-4 players.

I agree. I would be open to trade him for a good package due to his age and contract situation but don't assume that every prospect just because it is on a top100 hits better than he does because the vast majority of top prospects does not. In fact I would be thrilled if any sox top prospect including eloy would hit like abreu in their prime. abreu had one not so good season but he still produced a 120 wRC+ that year. in his career he had a 138 wRC+ which ranks 7th among 1Bs during that time. if you look at the last 3 years (actually 2.5) he also is 7th at a 130 wRC+ (and pretty close to 4th-6th). that is not frank thomas level of course but definitely elite. now his defense is bad but he still is 7th in WAR since 2016 and 6th since 2014. Sox fans should be thrilled if the next sox 1B is as good as he is. that doesn't mean it can't happen but it is not guaranteed or even likely by any stretch.

It was a moto cycling accident and being hit by a ball on the hand, not sure if you should call that breaking down. However of course we don't know the long term implications of the bike accident, maybe it has weakened his shoulder.

His defense isn't good but he has an .883 career OPS with a .300 average and like 30 bombs per year. overall he is definitely one of the better first basemen and there is no guarantee that any of the prospects who replace him will be nearly as good with the bat, that is basically a 70 bat (albeit probably plays more like a 65 due to the low walk rates) and 65 power, which not many pospects project for. I still see the value in trading him as he is a FA in 2020 and might start to decline soon at age 31. But only do it for a real return, if you only get a 45 and a 40 prospect you can just as well keep him as a buddy for moncada and robert and get the comp pick in 2020. but if someone offers you a top100 prospect and a filler I would probably do it and trade him because a comp pick only projects as a 40 or so on average and a top100 is clearly better than that, especially if you get that 40 as a secondary guy too.

yeah but to be fair he only played 18 games and at least half of them probably were trying to play through injury. His first 9 games he hit .300, then the next 9 he hit .100, this probably can be attributed to the injury already. He did overperform last year and was due to a regression but this years sample was probably mostly related to injury. He probably when healthy is a 105-110 wRC+ hitter which is above average but not the level he did last year fueled by a .390 babip

I'm one of the guys who think madrigal will hit 10-15 homers but is has to be noted that biggio and altuve are much stockier than madrigal. now madrigal could add some weight but many believe (for example longenhagen )he doesn't have the frame to add a lot of weight without getting less agile and fast. madrigal isn't really just short but "small" while altuve is build like a little tank. altuve has always hit the ball pretty hard even at age 21 the homers came just by elevating the ball more.

I don't think he will be a shortstop, but maybe they want to make him a flexible player who can play ss in a pinch, similar to ben zobrist. scouts say he can play SS but you have to consider that there are not many shortstops who are good defenders in college anyway because the top athletes tend to get drafted out of HS. even many college shortstops move from short and thus I think it is a stretch to play madrigal who moved because of a teammate there. however I do think he can play there occasionally without being terrible and that flexibility is good.

btw I'm sceptical about the prep guys mentioned. at the start of the season it is always prep guys mocking high. Before last year anyone talked about hunter greene and this draft it was turang and de sedas. Teams increasingly shy away from prep guys, especially prep pitchers because you have more data and the bust risk is lower and teams nowadays often look more at floor than ceiling. Unless it is an exceptional prep guy (like harper) prep guys are usually falling late in the process while college performers rise. Maybe witt is such a guy but in the end teams will probably again think "we like him but he played against crappy competition and we will take the guy who performed in SEC against top pitching" and this is if he hits well his final year - if he doesn't he could also drop like de sedas. At 4-5 the top prep guys could be in play again but at the top3 it might be all college guys again.

the sox are bad but this year there are a lot of bad teams and many will get worse at the deadline. sox could get to first but teams like the tigers and padres still have some good players to trade left and could really implode in the second half after trading some guys, especially in the bullpen. really anything from first to 6th pick is possible next draft: sox, padres, marlins, royals and tigers (despite their soldi start) are all really bad. Cincy is bad too but while their pitching is maybe the worst their hitting really underperformed the first month and should get better so that they will be in the run for the top picks too but maybe not that bad. maybe texas or baltimore implodes and trades a few guys but I think those mentioned six should be the top candidates. mlb is really crowded in sucking again this year.

Regading walks this is also related to power. Scouts say he has a pretty solid approach at the plate but because he is not a power threat yet pitchers will throw the ball over the plate because they don't want to put him on first but are also not that afraid of contact creating homers. Chase rate and approach is important for walks but so is zone rate by the pitchers. adam dunn had a great eye but he also walked a lot because pitchers didn't want to give up homers. If madrigal becomes a 10 homer guy I think it would be good if he walks 7-8% (like altuve also does), it is rare that low power guys walk a lot (joe mauer is an exception). what is important is more that he doesn't "not walk", if it is 4-5% or lower that would be bad. but I don't expect that, I think his walk rate will be slightly below average which is fine if he hits 290.

who hits 3 to 5 homers in these days? I agree altuve is an exception and we should be happy if he becomes howie kendrick but last year 216 hitters had 400+ PAs and just 4 of them hit below 5 homers and only 25 hitters hit single digit homers. I mean there is a chance mardigal is dee gordon but most scouts think he will hit 8-12. during his college career he hit 7 in 550 ABs. he might lose a little moving to wood (albeit the new BBCOR metal bat aren't much hotter than wood) but he probably will also add 10-15 pounds. I think 8 homers is about his "floor" (which means like 25th percentile outcome or so of course as I'm not saying there is zero chance he hits less). I would guess 8 homers is like 25th percentile outcome, 12 is like average and like 17 is the 75th percentile with an outside shot at more (numbers just guessed of course). I think 10 homers is a pretty conservative guess.

I think to be special he needs to be more of a 15-18 homer guy. Eaton had a 360 babip that year, he became really good when he became a 15 homer guy. If madrigal hits 12 homers he basically is Howie Kendrick. If he hits 15 he is Dustin Pedroia and with 20 he could be Ian kinsler. I'm sure he will hit 10+ homers, everyone can do that with the new ball. He isn't a slugger but not a pure slapper either.

the good thing is that the power for madrigal is more of a bonus. obviously it is bad if he hits for zero power (say 5 homers a year) but most scouts have him at 12-15 homers which is like 40 power, if he hits 290 with a 360 on base and 12 homers that is nice (essentially howie kendrick as I said before) and if it is 15-18 homers you get more than that.

BTW would it make sense to keep eloy and kopech down all year? most of the top prosects will arrive around 2020/2021. Maybe the team should do everything to maximize the 2021-2027 window. Now I get moncada, giolito and rodon don't really fit that timeline but I think the eloy, robert, madrigal, kopech, collins and hopefully also burger, hansen, rutherford could be the more important wave of prospects. if needed you could even trade one of moncada/rodon if they raise their value. hopefully rodon gets healthy again he actually did produce 2 and 2.6 WAR his first two seasons which is good but then went downhill.

on the other hand the sox have one of the lowest payrolls and won't sign anyone next off season, so they don't really need financial flexibility yet. I would trade him if I get anything and not pull the option but the salary hardly matters in this situation