Dominikk85

who hits 3 to 5 homers in these days? I agree altuve is an exception and we should be happy if he becomes howie kendrick but last year 216 hitters had 400+ PAs and just 4 of them hit below 5 homers and only 25 hitters hit single digit homers. I mean there is a chance mardigal is dee gordon but most scouts think he will hit 8-12. during his college career he hit 7 in 550 ABs. he might lose a little moving to wood (albeit the new BBCOR metal bat aren't much hotter than wood) but he probably will also add 10-15 pounds. I think 8 homers is about his "floor" (which means like 25th percentile outcome or so of course as I'm not saying there is zero chance he hits less). I would guess 8 homers is like 25th percentile outcome, 12 is like average and like 17 is the 75th percentile with an outside shot at more (numbers just guessed of course). I think 10 homers is a pretty conservative guess.

I think to be special he needs to be more of a 15-18 homer guy. Eaton had a 360 babip that year, he became really good when he became a 15 homer guy. If madrigal hits 12 homers he basically is Howie Kendrick. If he hits 15 he is Dustin Pedroia and with 20 he could be Ian kinsler. I'm sure he will hit 10+ homers, everyone can do that with the new ball. He isn't a slugger but not a pure slapper either.

the good thing is that the power for madrigal is more of a bonus. obviously it is bad if he hits for zero power (say 5 homers a year) but most scouts have him at 12-15 homers which is like 40 power, if he hits 290 with a 360 on base and 12 homers that is nice (essentially howie kendrick as I said before) and if it is 15-18 homers you get more than that.

BTW would it make sense to keep eloy and kopech down all year? most of the top prosects will arrive around 2020/2021. Maybe the team should do everything to maximize the 2021-2027 window. Now I get moncada, giolito and rodon don't really fit that timeline but I think the eloy, robert, madrigal, kopech, collins and hopefully also burger, hansen, rutherford could be the more important wave of prospects. if needed you could even trade one of moncada/rodon if they raise their value. hopefully rodon gets healthy again he actually did produce 2 and 2.6 WAR his first two seasons which is good but then went downhill.

on the other hand the sox have one of the lowest payrolls and won't sign anyone next off season, so they don't really need financial flexibility yet. I would trade him if I get anything and not pull the option but the salary hardly matters in this situation

Using fangraphs scouting grades: 4. madrigal (55FV) 12-18 range walker steele (high 40) 12-18 range Konnor pilkington (high 40) after 25 lency delgado (35), stiever (35), andrew perez (35) Of course those are current projections if they develope "normally". with a great performance they could rise (and of course it could also go the other way if they do badly). the first 3 picks definitely help the system. madrigal is a new high end guy after some graduations and steele and pilkington are a nice boost for the second half of the systems top10.

Yes it was Friedman.I think he would do it but not sure the dodgers owner will allow that.

I actually think it is more likely that a team with no fans in the first place like the As or rays get him. Those two franchises are well known to chase value regardless of what media and fans think. The rays have a history of taking crooks on a discount, most notably Matt Bush (multiple DUI and DUI crash with physical harm)

I like madrigal, I think he is the second best player of this draft. I think he probably becomes a howie Kendrick type of hitter but there is a chance for more. Will be interesting what they get the rest of the draft, unfortunately the really good HS and college talent is gone due to KC and cleveland having multiple picks making deals less likely but they should get some decent guys. Good decision though to not go under slot in hindsight after seeing how Kc, cleveland and San diego killed it in the comp round.

I think madrigal is the right guy. Mize probably was the best player but once he is gone it is madrigal, even over bohm and maybe even bart. Others have more upside but I think there is a very good chance madrigal becomes a 290 hitter with 12-15 homers and solid defense (think Howie kendrick) and there is a chance for a little more pop too.

I wouldn't take a reliever in the first round but there is a really big drop off after the top10 of the first round. The average supplemental pick is about a 40 to 45 (1-1.5 war) player and hindsight analysis shows the same. Basically you can say that after pick 20 or so any positive big league value you get is good even if it is just a good reliever. I wouldn't draft a reliever in the first two rounds but teams should probably draft more relievers in rounds 3-5 than they do now because the average production in those rounds is so much lower than in the first round. If you draft a good butvnotvgreat reliever who posts 1.5 war in his prime years in the third round that is a big success.

Is 30 and 300 really that rare? sure it is really good but Jose abreu averaged .301 and 32 homers in his career so far and while he is good I wouldn't call him a once in a decade player.

Problem is that this year college position players are bad. I don't see anyone of them being really good. Most have projected hit tools of 50 (260) at best except for madrigal. There isn't a single hitter who projects to be a .300 with 30 bombs hitter. Sure one of the high ceiling guys could turn into this but that will mean they have really stretched their ceiling. So if singer is a 3 starter that is really not worse than bohm becoming a 250 hitter with 25 bombs and bad defense.

I'm sure there will be guys having a better career even than madrigal and mize but you have to consider ceiling and floor. A guy like carter stewart has A higher ceiling than probably anyone of the top 4 but he could also bust. The draft is not about finding the best player but about getting the best result if you would repeat the same draft x times. If you had to draft 10 times at 4 it would be better to get 6 3 war players , one 4 war, one 1 war and two busts then one 7 war, one 3 war, two 1 war and 6 busts. Hindsight best player is not a good way to evaluate players in hindsight taking Stephen Strasburg over mike trout was still the right decision even if it turned out differently.

Longenhagen now has them taking singer. I don't think that is bad and singer could also add 2-3 mph and become really good but I think that madrigal and mize are now pretty clearly the two best choices. If madrigal is available they should take him. However if madrigal is gone I don't have a problem taking singer over bats like bohm, India, kelenic, Gorman and swaggerty because I think they are not that special either. I think BPA is 1. Mize 2. Madrigal . . . And then singer and the bats are pretty much pretty similar considering ceiling and floor. So I would be disappointed if they leave madrigal (or even mize) on the board but if they are gone it is pretty much a wash who they take. Others like Gorman or carter steward have a higher ceiling but also higher bust potential.

Really nice tool here https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all&team=all Grades Mize 55 fv (2.5 war), 60 fb, 50 sl, 50 command, 60 cutter Madrigal 55 fv 70 hit, 45-50 power, 55 field Bart 50 fv, 45 hit, 55-60 power, 55 field Swaggerty 50 fv, 50/50 Bohm 50 hit (260 average), 50 power (20 hr) ... Fangraphs has 2 guys as 55s, then 10 more as 50s (average regular) and then a lot of 45s until about the start of round 2

Nobody in the majors has 20 power (except for Billy hamilton and dee gordon), the 20 is probably a present grade. Scouts always had him at 10-12 homers which is 40. What his proponents hope is that the juiced mlb ball and maybe 10 pounds of muscle turn him into a 15-20 homer guy which could make him a star like pedroia.

I think the college bat options are pretty lame after madrigal. A lot of power guys but not a ton of hitters. India and bohm are interesting but india doesn't have the track record and not sure bohm hits for average (same for swaggerty) or stays at third. If bart and madrigal both are gone I wouldn't want a college bat which is a weakness of this draft.

I don't like that really. The draft is deep but not like 2 full rounds deep. Now if the sox had their second pick in the early 20s I would be totally on board with the deal but the sox second pick is at 46 and the royals and rays will have multiple comp picks before the sox pick second. Those two teams will really dominate the early second round and at 46 not much talent might be left especially since it seems to get rarer that top talent slides than it was 10 years ago. In their situation the sox should definitely go BPA and not spin a deal and hope that the royals and rays don't completely dominate the signability guys market.

Nice article. The swing is not bad. As a hitting coach working with kids I see one thing though. He is losing his posture a little, the head dives slightly forward and down. This shifts his rotation axis forward and costs him some loft. Most sluggers keep the head more over the rear hip during the turn. There are some guys who succeed with the head forward though. Arenado come to mind but he as a very vertical bat path were the bat head goes down steeply and then turns up like a ferris wheel while really getting the front elbow up. For comparison here is Bryant who keeps the head back and stays behind the axis Both can work but when you lose that axis it gets a little tougher and you need some workarounds.

I think it is a good thing that this draft is pretty deep. No standout talent but between Bart, mize, singer, Boehm, madrigal there likely isn't a large talent gap. You can likely just pick one or even go by organisational need as there isn't really a consensus best player available.

I think he might never hit for average but he walks a ton. If he can improve his power and contact rate a little bit he maybe could become a Carlos Santana although he likely won't be as good of a contact hitter and thus more a 240 instead of 270 hitter. But if he hits 240/350/460 that would be pretty nice but the question is whether he can catch.

Madrigal could also play the outfield or maybe even third. He likely doesn't have the prototypical corner of/3b power but if he hits 320 with 15 homers I can live with him there. He is pretty fast so he probably could be a good outfielder. Or you could put moncada in the outfield.

I don't see any bat wrap with him, basically a classic "knob to catchers feet" launch position when he lands on his stride foot. I wouldn't mind madrigal. Seems to be a polished hitter, decent defender at second who could play short in a pinch (albeit not really every day probably) and with the mlb ball and some more pounds he probably could hit 15-20 hr. There might be higher upside guys but he is probably the safest guy and there also is an outside chance he become kinda like altuve.

I don't think he will be a good fielder or even average but I see him being an ok left fielder. Maybe he will cost you 5 runs per season there but his bat easily should make up for this.