Dominikk85

Don't think he will be a 14% walk guy but if he can keep it at 10-11% and the Ks around 30 while hitting the ball hard in the air he can be a solid player.

Actually a 4-5 year window is pretty long, 6 years is great unless you can spend 200+m. However I disagree that the window will be closed after 2023. Moncada is a free agent in 24 but kopech, robert, eloy, Hanson, cease, Rutherford, burger, Collins and whoever makes it are all not even starting their clock. Most of the rebuild pieces are still in the minors. I think the window will be more like 2021 to 2026 or so.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Apr 11, 2018 -> 10:40 AM) Davidson talked about how his walks were way down last year. This year, and it's been 10 games, he has had a huge increase. That's great to see even in the short term. If he's a one trick pony with power he probably bounces around the league getting signed in February every year. If he's a power guy with a 10-15% BB rate he's a very capable player. Yeah he is going to whiff a lot and hit for a low average but if he hits 230 with 80 walks and 35 bombs that is not bad, basically Chris Carter before he became really bad. Those types tend to decline early (like dunn) because they lose all their contact skill at some point but can be productive in their mid to late 20s.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 28, 2018 -> 12:23 AM) Still rooting for Gorman (Kelenic if Gorman has been drafted) as our 1st RD pick, Beer or Gray Jr as our 2nd RD pick. I think kelenic would be a little too high, solid across the board but no special tool. Gorman would be nice, although I read the tigers want him at 1 ( makes sense, their system lacks power bats). I think one of the two HS shortstops or a pitcher would be most likely.

Also likely a couple of the starting prospects might end up in the pen if they dont quite develope the command to start. Many great relievers have been pretty good SP prospects. Obviously we hope kopech can start but if his command doesn't come around (I.e. Bb/9 Is 4+) then he could be the next Chapman or Miller. Not ideal outcome but not a bad fall back plan either.

Gorman is very good but I wouldn't read too much into high school stats and neither will the teams. The average HS pitcher throws 75 and draftable athletes are way too much for them. Even tim Tebow hit .500 in high school, that is pretty normal for an elite athlete. So if Gorman hits .600 in high school, that won't give him huge helium, most drafted high schoolers do that, even if 10th rounders. More interesting will be how he hits in elite national level showcases facing 90+. That is not to talk him down, he is good, but it is pretty much expected that a first round draftee destroys high school pitching and teams won't get overly exited over high school stats. Obviously you don't want him to suck but generally stats are less important for high schoolers than college players, they are more evaluated by tools. High schoolers don't get helium by dominating, they get helium by making a physical jump (say when a pitcher goes from 6"1 and 88 to 6"4 and 95). Since Gorman is physically already pretty mature and already has big power and is projected to go top5-10 there isn't much room for helium. He likely already has about his max value now and can't do much more to increase it. The helium will apply more to college performers and physically late blooming high schoolers who grow physically, a physically mature high schooler who already has performed usually won't increase or lose his value in his senior year unless he gets hurt.

I'm a believer in Giolito's curve and also the slider but not sure I believe into his fastball. Maybe he can get it back into the mid 90s which would be good but they still say it is a flat pitch without a ton of movement. I think at 94 it is ok even if not really good but at 91 it could be really batting practice. Maybe he can be a pitcher type like kluber who also doesn't have a good FB but uses a great curve like a third of the time (although kluber does have a pretty solid cutter he uses as his second fastball). Maybe something like 40% FB 20% slider, 25% curve, 15% change can work for him.

Btw according to fangrqphs last years draft (after they played short season): 1. McKay 60fv (22) 2. hiura 55fv (24) 3. Wright 55 (26) 4. Gore 55 (33) 5. Lewis 55 (38) 6. Greene 55 (42) 7. Addel 50 (66) 8. Lutz 50 (68) So I think at 5 the sox should probably be able to get a 55 or so, definitely a top100 prospect right away or after a good short season.

I would also stay away from prep pitchers even though prep pitchers are likely the most talented group of the draft. You could get the next Kershaw or bumgarner but more likely a complete bust. The hitters and college arms of the draft might not have a super high ceiling but you have a much better chance to get at least like an average player in his prime (50 to 55 fv).

enjoy https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...ld-be-anything/

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 05:52 PM) 100% agree and have been arguing this for a while. Each incremental WAR should be worth more given there are a finite amount of spots on the field and the scarcity of stars in the game. I get the idea but it isn't really true. There is a finite amount of spots but the amount of spots is much larger than for example in basketball and every team has some bad players. Real world analysis shows that war is indeed linear and that it doesn't make a difference whether a team has more star players or more depth as long as overall war of the team is the same. Teams also value war linearly in contracts according to almost all available resources.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 31, 2018 -> 08:43 PM) For now. The scouting world is divided on whether he sticks there or not. Obviously, his father filled out and played 3B for most of his major league career, mostly with the Expos and Cardinals. There is a chance that Burger doesn't stick at third but I still would prefer a shortstop. you can still slide a shortstop to third if needed but you can't put the third baseman in the middle if.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 03:28 PM) That's weird. Most 100m track athletes don't start winning until their mid-20's. But they train for speed while many baseball players gain weight in their early 20s to get more power which hurts the speed. There are certainly some baseball players who keep their speed into their 30s if they don't put on too much mass.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 10:39 AM) I've heard people say that, but outside of Singer (who I can't see falling to us) and occasionally Rolison, I never hear anyone mentioning any names as top-of-the-draft talents. Maybe McClanahan is that guy -- this is honestly the first time I've even heard his name. I think it's possible that there's a ton of college pitching depth in the first round overall, but I don't know if that talent exists in the top 5 picks. Hankins definitely needs to be mentioned too. But overall college pitching is not that good either. I think the best of the class is HS pitching, then HS hitting, then college pitching and clearly the weakness of the class is college hitting. Some college hitters will move up late as always though because college hitters have the least bust potential out of the 4 groups (Would rank the "safety" 1. College hitting then college P, then HS hitting and clearly the highest risk in hs pitching)

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 12, 2018 -> 02:33 PM) I think there are just too many good positional guys this year to even consider a pitcher outside of Singer/Hankins, IMO. You're guaranteed to get one of Gorman, De Sedas, Kelenic, Turang, Madrigal, etc. at #4. I actually think it might be the other way round. The strength of this draft is clearly pitching, most of the hitting prospects have some warts ( like madrigal's size, turangs power or we sedas ability to stay at short). Sure if you get a hitter you like do it but as longenhagen says the strength of the 2018 draft is clearly prep pitching. For hitting it is pretty mediocre and there isn't really top of the chart talent. Gorman is I think a good guy but he again is a corner guy. Sure if he hits like vlad jr that doesn't matter but if it is 50 hit and 60 power instead of 60 hit and 70 power that is pretty pedestrian. Kelenic isn't bad but I think he is more of a 15-20 guy and getting him at 5 would be an overdraft. I think if they get a hitter at that position it has to be an up the middle guy without real elite bats in the draft. I'm pretty sure 3 pitchers will go in the top 5 so one of de sedas or turang should definitely be available.

QUOTE (maxjusttyped @ Feb 8, 2018 -> 03:16 PM) For all the talk about the Sox changing their draft philosophy, it's interesting that the top prospects they've acquired via trade have been players with better tools profiles rather than statistical ones. That is why they got him.if you trade sale or Q you get performance and tools but many of the other guys were high tools guys with performance issues that they bought low on. They could have also gotten undertooled high performers but they chose to go for the potential. The system already was very good so they can take some high variance guys with upside.

They also still have many low minors players. Katoh will take some time before it believes in it, AA and AAA success is weighed more heavily. Some of the guys will rise, especially eloy who has only played a few games at AA ball so far.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 2, 2018 -> 07:39 AM) Seems like it was wrote by a dodgers fan. Front? Really? Try again. Also if you aren't getting back someone in the top 50 plus another intriguing prospect outside the top 100 you better be getting back a bunch of intriguing prospects. For example the guy I'd want in their system would be Alvarez. If not Alvarez it would have to be something like Ruiz, Heredia, Brito and Marinan. Top 50 AND another interesting prospect is unrealistic but I agree about font.jeff loves him for some reason. I think a real (but fringy) top100 and a filler would be a realistic return, don't want a 27 year old who dominated AAA. Must be a real prospect. Alvarez would be perfect but then you absolute don't get any second guy of course.

Suggestion on fangraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-market-...spect/#comments The white sox don't have unlimited money but the next 2-3 years the payroll is so low that they could take on 20-30m per year the next 2 years and still have one of the lower payrolls. Several teams like the yankees, dodgers, giants and red sox are approaching the tax threshold and might like to stay under the tax. You are not getting a top50 prospect probably, but a lower level top100 prospect (maybe an older one or one with some risk) might very well be possible. So why not take on matt kemps contract and get back a 50fv and maybe a 40 on top as a bonus?

High K with low power doesn't really work. I don't think last years 34% are his real talent level but even his mid 20s from the minors is not low enough for a 120 ISO. Last year in AAA he did show some pop in limited sample size but not sure if that was a real improvement or just the environment. He actually is a fly ball hitter (unfortunately also with an extremely high pop up rate) so that might already be about maxed out.

Sox should take the best player no matter what position. Ideal would be a shortstop but a tor starter would also be nice.

I don't really know about alonso, but could very well be true.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jan 28, 2018 -> 11:44 PM) I didn't mean intentionally putting hitches into their swing, I meant working with kinesologists with backgrounds in biomechanics to build their swings, or for teams, hiring them as hitting coaches. I can believe the line of thinking that most hitting coaches are awful, but if some players and teams have found the right people that can help them work with their swing mechanics and make their swing effective, why aren't players and teams flocking to these people? It doesn't work for every guy of course but I think it is no coincidence that we see more late breakout players and almost all of them have gotten input from sources outside the game. Here is s list of guys of that mold -justin Turner -daniel Murphy -josh Donaldson -chris Taylor -aaron judge (he recently credited a guy I know from the internet for his success - the the dude is a giant asshole who insults anyone and got banned from about every forum but apparently he worked with judge, kingery and ian happ who all had great years) Sure it is no guarantee that it works, but conventional hitting coaching basically has a play it save and don't ruin the top guys philosophy.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 18, 2018 -> 10:27 AM) My only question is whether he's a catcher. If he is, he's an All Star in my opinion. He spent the offseason straightening out the hitch in his swing. The knocks were the strikeout rate and batting average. This player is good though: 2017 Winston-Salem: .223/.365/.443 118K, 76BB, 17 homers 130 wRC+ and .367 wOBA 2017 Birmingham (small sample): .235/.422/.471 .414 wOBA and 166 wRC+. 2016: .885 OPS after his college season. I don't really have a problem with a hitch. Many great hitters had a hitch, josh Donaldson and Barry bonds among them (If you mean a pre swing hands drop). Issue with the hitch is the timing, a hand drop and bat tip can be a great loading mechanism. You just need to do it early enough to give the hands time to work back and up. Donaldson explains the hitch thing here at 6:45 he says the hands need to go down at the foot is lifted so the hands go back as the foot goes down. A hitch is bad when it is so late that you still move the hands back up when you should start. Donaldson (who is a great hitting expert by the way) is a big opponent of quieting things down. Is is an easy fix done by many mlb orgs and it can improve some things but it can also kill athleticsm and power. So if I hear batting coaches want to simplify things , eliminate movement and such stuff I'm very scared.great hitters don't eliminate movement but control it. Most of the time those simplified swings kill the upside of players. Sure a hitch is not for anyone and many are great without it and maybe no hitch is really better for Collins but I'm always wary if teams talk about quieting things down and simplify stuff. Some it can help but many are ruined. Problem is that most pro hitting coaches suck. Donaldson literally said he told them to GTFO and did his own thing (he worked with my loose internet friend Bobby tewksbary), in fact many good players have now private coaches who intensively studied kinesiology and biomechanics while most team batting coaches are still ex players with little biomechanics understanding. The Astros have actually hired such an expert (Jeff Albert) and more teams will do so, but most still give away their hitting coach jobs based on merit as a player and clubhouse connections.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 23, 2018 -> 10:36 PM) I actually thought his write-up on Hansen was very favorable. What were we expecting here? He's a top 55-60 prospect in the game. Could be a TOR starter. What's the issue? Yes, ranking him in the top50 and saying he could be an above average starter is definitely not underranking him. He could also be better than that but he could also be worse.