Dominikk85

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jan 4, 2018 -> 07:57 PM) They'll be a little better than last year: 72-75 wins. Avi will have a good year and they'll sell him in July. Hopefully Soria too. No need to grovel for a top 5 pick. 5-12 is fine. So fangrpaphs projections are too low by 10+ games?

Good that he is getting fitter albeit I hate the swing. Don't love the arm bar albeit todd frazier and others made it work. But I really hate how his upper body gets forward and the bat path gets down to the ball in the last second rather than the modern get on plane early. I think the swing needs a lot of work. Would start with keeping head more over rear hip as he strides and swings (look where Bellingers head is here at front foot strike https://youtu.be/7geVbyC9Doo) and then work at keeping the hands higher and level rather than down to the ball that much. If he keeps his axis tilted back a little he can elevate the ball better, you can see why he hit 50% grounders last year.

What do you think? Fangraphs actually projects them for only 61 wins. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?...ition=Standings You would expect moncada to improve but most prospects won't make the majors until September (eloy, kopech) or 2018. I think they have a real shot at 100 losses. They lost their 4th, 5th,6th, 9th war players (quintana, frazier, kahnle, swarzak) and there is a shot they trade more. I would actually prefer them selling abreu and avi to build the best farm in history, get a first overall pick, delay eloy and kopech until may 2019 in the minors to put everything into the 2020-2026 window to win a ws or two. No reason to try to get incrementally better, build a super team for that first half of the 2020s time frame.

Don't care for the trade either way. No cost except money which the sox have plenty available due to the low payroll but also no real gain. Yeah you could say they need relievers but honestly they are already projected to be a last place team next year, so why not lose 95+ and get another top3 pick (which might happen anyway fangraphs actually projects them as the worst team of the majors)

Let's do the math. 3 years of control for 102 m. Projected for around 27 wins for a value of 241m at 9m per win, that leaves a surplus value of 139m. What is that worth? According to this list a 70 and a 55 hitter or two 60 hitters and a 50 pitcher. Or 3 55 hitters and a 50 pitcher or about 7 50 hitters (or 13 45 hitters:)). https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the...-100-prospects/ I think trout may be traded in mid 2020 for 3 top 100 guys but then not a 70 but rather a 60 and two 50s. Right now the price is just too ridiculous and also with their recent additions they likely want to compete.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 06:47 PM) White Sox had 5 of the first 59 in 2004, and 7 of the first 89, and the only one the drafted worth a damn was Gio Gonzalez. Actually josh fields was a top100 prospects a few times topping out around 50. Ultimately he busted but he was a good prospect and a good choice at the time.

I like eric with carson. Eric is obviously a very straightforward kind of person who is kind of different from most of their writers but with Carson he actually has some funny moments. If I was eric I would hate that they got Kiley back. Obviously Kiley is good but eric did a good job and I can't imagine two people doing it together. I hope kiley will do some other stuff and leave eric alone with the prospect stuff or eric probably won't be there too long.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 02:37 AM) The Royals will have 5 picks before we pick for a 2nd time. That probably means no capspace games with the first pick and just get the first pick available at 4.

any Kind of mlb value you get from the rule 5 draft is a great result. sure occasionallly there is an odubel Herrera who becomes a 4 win Player but most don't stick at all. if you get a middle reliever or bench bat which is competent to Play in the Majors for some time that is a good result.

wasn't AJ pretty much hated by most in mlb?

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 09:36 AM) I don't really there is significant reliever risk with Kopech anymore. He's the best pitching prospect in baseball. He dominated AA last year and should be in the big leagues shortly. His floor is high leverage power reliever sure but I don't think the risk is significant anymore. He's a freaking ace. there definitely is a reliever risk. last year in AA he walked 4.5 batters per 9, the year before that it was 5. he only walked 3 in AAA but it was just 15 innings so that is not really telling. most ace Starters are under 2.5. now he is still Young and can improve, other great Starters have been wild but there is a risk that never Comes around.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 07:28 AM) I get the risks, but how do you expect to develop a legit #1 starter without Kopech? Maybe Hansen can get there, but the key to building a quality pitching staff from top to bottom is having lots of talented arms throughout the system. I think people are starting to get carried away with this TINSTAAPP crap when they completely ignore roster contruction and are afraid to hold onto one of the best pitching prospects in the game. Unlike the Cubs, we can’t go out and sign a Jon Lester to anchor our rotation, which makes developing on our TOR starters even more critical. the TINSTAAPP Thing is not totally wrong. pitching prospects are more risky (mostly due to injuries though) and the writers now tend to give the pitchers a slight bump down (also in the Surplus value lists) but going all in on hitting isn't really working anymore. it worked for the cubs because as you said they could buy pitching and also got a Little lucky with Hendricks and arrieta but a lot of Teams have preferred hitting prospects in the last years which inflated the Price of pitching and dropped the value of hitters (especially the classic high on base Corner slugger). there is more Attrition with pitchers but as an acquiring Team you have to pay that Price in trades. even the cubs paid a huge Price for chapman, Quintana and other guys. ideally you would have hitting prospects but you still eventually Need the pitching and if you have to buy it it is going to be expensive.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 07:51 AM) I agree with your general premise, but no way in hell would I trade Kopech for Frazier. Kopech is probably the best pitching prospect in baseball and our best chance at developing a cost-controlled ace. You deal him and the entire complexion of our future pitching staff changes (for the worse). he could be Randy Johnson but there is also a significant reliever risk with him. now the good Thing is that that "risk" could still mean the next chapman/miller/kimbrel so this is not so bad but I could see why one would trade a top30 hitting prospect for him. but of course there are also good arguements for keeping him. but I think it is closer than People here think, frazier probably would be the 3rd to 4th best sox prospect right now.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 06:20 PM) When drafting a high school outfielder that high, I would be very reluctant to select a player in the top five unless I really felt they could profile as a center fielder. Players need a hell of a bat to profile as an mlb corner regular, giving you far less margin for error. Problem with HS Corner bats is the high range of outcomes. even an advanced HS bat has a pretty big range of outcomes. if the Player hits the 90th percentile outcome he will be usefull everywhere but at a Corner basically only 75th plus percentile outcomes Play at all. so while the bat is not super risky he has to hit really well to make an Impact. if the same Player Plays up the middle he might only Need to hit his 50th percentile outcome (numbers are made up- don't know the actual numbers) and still is a productive Player. when you have a bat like harper that doesn't matter but few HS bats are so good that you say his median outcome will Play at a Corner. that is why Teams prefer up the middle Talent from hs picks in the top10

frazier has some contact issues but so does moncada and many other prospects. frazier still has a top30 prospect last year. I would not trade eloy or moncada for him of course but kopech and almost any other sox prospect I would probably do in a 1 for 1 trade since especially kopech and other pitchers are a really big risk too. using just ops to judge prospects also isn't a good way. Tyler White (astros dude) has produced a 900 OPS at every Level and he still rightfully never was a top100 prospect. results are important but top prospects have Tools and he has a lot of them and it isnt like he never hit at all.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 10, 2017 -> 09:13 PM) Unless the Cubs/Astros are running the rebuilds...or you have the Dodgers/Red Sox/Yankees' ability to invest in the farm system, international youngsters and outbid pretty much everyone on the FA market when you choose to dip your toes into the water. IMO, the real test will be how long the Indians and Astros can keep their cores together. KC, it only lasted two years, but they made two World Series and almost won both. The Cubs have made 3 consecutive NL Championship Series, and might still have 3-4 more in them. At any rate, it's an extremely interesting time in baseball. Taking the "middle route" like the Mariners have been on (and the White Sox attempted for a decade) just doesn't work anymore because the margin of error is razor thin. We shall see if the White Sox/Padres approach can work this time around. It's also fascinating because the Cardinals' Way (despite doing everything the "right" way) has its limits (couldn't attract Heyward, David Price, Luis Robert, now Stanton). most Windows for non big market Teams are open like 3-4 years. technically you have 6 years of control and often 6.5 when you manage Service time smartly but usually not everyone arrives or Peaks at the same time plus many Teams have to trade starts with 1 to 1.5 years left to get back some value and Keep the Thing going. to Keep a 5+ year window you either Need to make some clever extensions (like the sox did with sale), have some luck with the farm and produce good Players despite low draft picks and Talent traded to stuff holes or you have a huge payroll to extend guys. extensions like sale will be harder to get by though- at least for the top guys (guys like anderson will continue to sign them and not take their Chance) as the Players and agents have realized how bad those are for the Players. there is of course the injury risk and getting nothing but stars also have other means to make Money (advertisements...).

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 10:18 AM) I just wonder why everyone assumes that a kid is as fast as they are ever going to be when they are 18? When people talk about high school football recruits they say how they will add muscle and get faster, but for every baseball player the consensus is that they will add muscle and slow down. With his current run times he could probably stay in CF if he just maintains his speed. because almost all baseball players who add muscle mass do slow down. especially when they are already like 200 lb like kelenic. it doesn't always has to be like that but often it is. longenhagen has turang and gorman ahead of him and said kelenic is well rounded but no elite tools. he is a good prospect but not sure I would take him over de sedas or turang

question with kelenic is whether he can play CF with an additional 20 pounds of muscle mass. trout can obviously but he also had speed in spades. when he hits like trout that obiously doesn't matter but trout really is a 99th percentile outcome. I think chance is that if kelenic is seen as a CF he is a top5 pick, if they think he is a corner OF with 20 pounds more he is a top15-20 pick.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 7, 2017 -> 05:18 PM) Actually it is funny...Trout was never billed as this overly athletic/toolsy guy. He just flat out wasn't. I remember at the time of the draft, Trout was just more of a guy who was likely to be solid but probably not a "star". trout has an uber athlete coming into the draft. he also wasn't really all that raw but he played in a cold weather state against weak competition so some Scouts doubted whether he would hit against good pitching. most prospects are from warm weather states because you can Play year round against good competition there (travel ball) and many Teams are a Little biased against cold weather state Players (which in some cases makes sense but also can be a mistake at times). trout did hit as an Amateur but some Scouts assumed he couldnt due to the Level of competition. he did develope more power than People thought though, when he was in the minors People thought he would be like a 15-20 HR guy with great Speed but then he developed 30+ HR power (also added quite a bit of muscle mass).

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 5, 2017 -> 12:40 PM) Scouts think he has the ability to play SS, just hasn't to be a good team player. I'd be okay with him becoming the 2014 or 2015 version of Jose Altuve or a 2007-2009 Dustin Pedroia. There's also the chance that, like Altuve, he suddenly develops power in his prime. I'd be happy with he, De Sedas, one of the LHSPs, or Gorman if the scouting staff thinks highly enough of him to take him that high. yes, especially with the mlb ball he could develope some Pop and hit 15+ bombs per year eventually. however with his size there is a Chance the power doesn't come and while some think he can Play SS there are not a lot of college SS playing short in the Majors anyway and especially not if they played another Position (most MLB SSs are HS or international Players since the top athletic talents who can Play short and hit usually don't make the Majors). that could drop him out of the top5, although I could see a Team taking him early because there is a low bust potential. the pitchers going high might be a good Thing for the sox who really Need a shortstop prospect since one of turang or de sedas will likely still be on the board when they pick. now they could go with another Player and even a pitcher if they think he is clearly BPA, but if several are perceived similar I think they could go with the organisational Need at SS.

New mlb.com list http://m.mlb.com/news/article/262831302/ml...prospects-list/ Surprised they have it so pitching heavy, they don't seem to love the hitters of the class. I don't think that 4 out of the top5 go pitching though, even if the hitters are not super exciting. Especially surprised no college Bat in top10. I get it is not a super exciting class for college bats but while they may have less upside the bust risk is also much lower than high school hitters or pitchers. I'm sure some teams in the top10 will consider that and prefer lower risk (and faster ETA) bumping up some of the college bats who have a good year late.

Flaherty plus sierra have about a protected surplus value of 35m combined, that is like 3 time the surplus value of abreu. Not a Dave steward like overpay but still a great return even if neither becomes as good as Abreu.

I think you still have to include collins to that Group as some Scouts think he won't cut it defensively at catcher. of course neither of them is proven but you have to take some gambles in a rebuild. I mean if you wanted only proven Players you shouldnt have traded sale, q and eaton in the first place.

extending abreu doesn't really make sense. basically half of the sox hitting prospects are 1B , DH or fringy 3B that might have to shift to first. even if they never become as good as abreu (which probably is quite likely) still one of them should have more value down the road than abreu in a couple years if you consider decline and salary. of course they all could fail but honestly if you target Corner Players that much and neither of them makes it your rebuild won't work anyway. some dices just Need to fall your way for a successfull rebuild. the sox Need one or two of those Corner guys to become at least 2-3 win (ideally of course 3+) Players so they can spend Money on Areas that might Need an upgrade down the road (SS, C, maybe a pitcher or two or CF).

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 08:03 AM) Top 3 payrolls in baseball coming into the 2017 season. Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox. Must be nice to spend $230 million on payroll and have spending money not be part of your strategy. The fact is these teams are all loaded with guys they pay a lot of money. It will be interesting when the Astros guys get all extremely expensive at around the same time. Adding guys like a Verlander may not be possible. payrolls absolutely do help but only if you have a somewhat decent home grown core. the 2000s Yankees had williams, Mo, jeter and Posada all coming up from their own farm and then of course they bought some big guys. but even they did a Little rebuild 2 years ago when they sold Chapman, miller and some other minor guys because they couldn't win with an aging droup anymore, any Team at least has to do a Little retool after 6-7 years of competing. and the dodgers and cubs of Course have spectacular home grown cores. now of course it does help to extend the window if you can sign a lester or heyward or you can extend some of your home grown guys. A pure home grown Team can win too but usually only for 3-4 years before another sell-off Needs to happen. to win over a longer time (6-7 years) you Need both a good home grown core but also some high Level signings.