Dominikk85

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 07:28 AM) I get the risks, but how do you expect to develop a legit #1 starter without Kopech? Maybe Hansen can get there, but the key to building a quality pitching staff from top to bottom is having lots of talented arms throughout the system. I think people are starting to get carried away with this TINSTAAPP crap when they completely ignore roster contruction and are afraid to hold onto one of the best pitching prospects in the game. Unlike the Cubs, we can’t go out and sign a Jon Lester to anchor our rotation, which makes developing on our TOR starters even more critical. the TINSTAAPP Thing is not totally wrong. pitching prospects are more risky (mostly due to injuries though) and the writers now tend to give the pitchers a slight bump down (also in the Surplus value lists) but going all in on hitting isn't really working anymore. it worked for the cubs because as you said they could buy pitching and also got a Little lucky with Hendricks and arrieta but a lot of Teams have preferred hitting prospects in the last years which inflated the Price of pitching and dropped the value of hitters (especially the classic high on base Corner slugger). there is more Attrition with pitchers but as an acquiring Team you have to pay that Price in trades. even the cubs paid a huge Price for chapman, Quintana and other guys. ideally you would have hitting prospects but you still eventually Need the pitching and if you have to buy it it is going to be expensive.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 11, 2017 -> 07:51 AM) I agree with your general premise, but no way in hell would I trade Kopech for Frazier. Kopech is probably the best pitching prospect in baseball and our best chance at developing a cost-controlled ace. You deal him and the entire complexion of our future pitching staff changes (for the worse). he could be Randy Johnson but there is also a significant reliever risk with him. now the good Thing is that that "risk" could still mean the next chapman/miller/kimbrel so this is not so bad but I could see why one would trade a top30 hitting prospect for him. but of course there are also good arguements for keeping him. but I think it is closer than People here think, frazier probably would be the 3rd to 4th best sox prospect right now.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 06:20 PM) When drafting a high school outfielder that high, I would be very reluctant to select a player in the top five unless I really felt they could profile as a center fielder. Players need a hell of a bat to profile as an mlb corner regular, giving you far less margin for error. Problem with HS Corner bats is the high range of outcomes. even an advanced HS bat has a pretty big range of outcomes. if the Player hits the 90th percentile outcome he will be usefull everywhere but at a Corner basically only 75th plus percentile outcomes Play at all. so while the bat is not super risky he has to hit really well to make an Impact. if the same Player Plays up the middle he might only Need to hit his 50th percentile outcome (numbers are made up- don't know the actual numbers) and still is a productive Player. when you have a bat like harper that doesn't matter but few HS bats are so good that you say his median outcome will Play at a Corner. that is why Teams prefer up the middle Talent from hs picks in the top10

frazier has some contact issues but so does moncada and many other prospects. frazier still has a top30 prospect last year. I would not trade eloy or moncada for him of course but kopech and almost any other sox prospect I would probably do in a 1 for 1 trade since especially kopech and other pitchers are a really big risk too. using just ops to judge prospects also isn't a good way. Tyler White (astros dude) has produced a 900 OPS at every Level and he still rightfully never was a top100 prospect. results are important but top prospects have Tools and he has a lot of them and it isnt like he never hit at all.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 10, 2017 -> 09:13 PM) Unless the Cubs/Astros are running the rebuilds...or you have the Dodgers/Red Sox/Yankees' ability to invest in the farm system, international youngsters and outbid pretty much everyone on the FA market when you choose to dip your toes into the water. IMO, the real test will be how long the Indians and Astros can keep their cores together. KC, it only lasted two years, but they made two World Series and almost won both. The Cubs have made 3 consecutive NL Championship Series, and might still have 3-4 more in them. At any rate, it's an extremely interesting time in baseball. Taking the "middle route" like the Mariners have been on (and the White Sox attempted for a decade) just doesn't work anymore because the margin of error is razor thin. We shall see if the White Sox/Padres approach can work this time around. It's also fascinating because the Cardinals' Way (despite doing everything the "right" way) has its limits (couldn't attract Heyward, David Price, Luis Robert, now Stanton). most Windows for non big market Teams are open like 3-4 years. technically you have 6 years of control and often 6.5 when you manage Service time smartly but usually not everyone arrives or Peaks at the same time plus many Teams have to trade starts with 1 to 1.5 years left to get back some value and Keep the Thing going. to Keep a 5+ year window you either Need to make some clever extensions (like the sox did with sale), have some luck with the farm and produce good Players despite low draft picks and Talent traded to stuff holes or you have a huge payroll to extend guys. extensions like sale will be harder to get by though- at least for the top guys (guys like anderson will continue to sign them and not take their Chance) as the Players and agents have realized how bad those are for the Players. there is of course the injury risk and getting nothing but stars also have other means to make Money (advertisements...).

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Dec 9, 2017 -> 10:18 AM) I just wonder why everyone assumes that a kid is as fast as they are ever going to be when they are 18? When people talk about high school football recruits they say how they will add muscle and get faster, but for every baseball player the consensus is that they will add muscle and slow down. With his current run times he could probably stay in CF if he just maintains his speed. because almost all baseball players who add muscle mass do slow down. especially when they are already like 200 lb like kelenic. it doesn't always has to be like that but often it is. longenhagen has turang and gorman ahead of him and said kelenic is well rounded but no elite tools. he is a good prospect but not sure I would take him over de sedas or turang

question with kelenic is whether he can play CF with an additional 20 pounds of muscle mass. trout can obviously but he also had speed in spades. when he hits like trout that obiously doesn't matter but trout really is a 99th percentile outcome. I think chance is that if kelenic is seen as a CF he is a top5 pick, if they think he is a corner OF with 20 pounds more he is a top15-20 pick.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 7, 2017 -> 05:18 PM) Actually it is funny...Trout was never billed as this overly athletic/toolsy guy. He just flat out wasn't. I remember at the time of the draft, Trout was just more of a guy who was likely to be solid but probably not a "star". trout has an uber athlete coming into the draft. he also wasn't really all that raw but he played in a cold weather state against weak competition so some Scouts doubted whether he would hit against good pitching. most prospects are from warm weather states because you can Play year round against good competition there (travel ball) and many Teams are a Little biased against cold weather state Players (which in some cases makes sense but also can be a mistake at times). trout did hit as an Amateur but some Scouts assumed he couldnt due to the Level of competition. he did develope more power than People thought though, when he was in the minors People thought he would be like a 15-20 HR guy with great Speed but then he developed 30+ HR power (also added quite a bit of muscle mass).

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 5, 2017 -> 12:40 PM) Scouts think he has the ability to play SS, just hasn't to be a good team player. I'd be okay with him becoming the 2014 or 2015 version of Jose Altuve or a 2007-2009 Dustin Pedroia. There's also the chance that, like Altuve, he suddenly develops power in his prime. I'd be happy with he, De Sedas, one of the LHSPs, or Gorman if the scouting staff thinks highly enough of him to take him that high. yes, especially with the mlb ball he could develope some Pop and hit 15+ bombs per year eventually. however with his size there is a Chance the power doesn't come and while some think he can Play SS there are not a lot of college SS playing short in the Majors anyway and especially not if they played another Position (most MLB SSs are HS or international Players since the top athletic talents who can Play short and hit usually don't make the Majors). that could drop him out of the top5, although I could see a Team taking him early because there is a low bust potential. the pitchers going high might be a good Thing for the sox who really Need a shortstop prospect since one of turang or de sedas will likely still be on the board when they pick. now they could go with another Player and even a pitcher if they think he is clearly BPA, but if several are perceived similar I think they could go with the organisational Need at SS.

New mlb.com list http://m.mlb.com/news/article/262831302/ml...prospects-list/ Surprised they have it so pitching heavy, they don't seem to love the hitters of the class. I don't think that 4 out of the top5 go pitching though, even if the hitters are not super exciting. Especially surprised no college Bat in top10. I get it is not a super exciting class for college bats but while they may have less upside the bust risk is also much lower than high school hitters or pitchers. I'm sure some teams in the top10 will consider that and prefer lower risk (and faster ETA) bumping up some of the college bats who have a good year late.

Flaherty plus sierra have about a protected surplus value of 35m combined, that is like 3 time the surplus value of abreu. Not a Dave steward like overpay but still a great return even if neither becomes as good as Abreu.

I think you still have to include collins to that Group as some Scouts think he won't cut it defensively at catcher. of course neither of them is proven but you have to take some gambles in a rebuild. I mean if you wanted only proven Players you shouldnt have traded sale, q and eaton in the first place.

extending abreu doesn't really make sense. basically half of the sox hitting prospects are 1B , DH or fringy 3B that might have to shift to first. even if they never become as good as abreu (which probably is quite likely) still one of them should have more value down the road than abreu in a couple years if you consider decline and salary. of course they all could fail but honestly if you target Corner Players that much and neither of them makes it your rebuild won't work anyway. some dices just Need to fall your way for a successfull rebuild. the sox Need one or two of those Corner guys to become at least 2-3 win (ideally of course 3+) Players so they can spend Money on Areas that might Need an upgrade down the road (SS, C, maybe a pitcher or two or CF).

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 08:03 AM) Top 3 payrolls in baseball coming into the 2017 season. Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox. Must be nice to spend $230 million on payroll and have spending money not be part of your strategy. The fact is these teams are all loaded with guys they pay a lot of money. It will be interesting when the Astros guys get all extremely expensive at around the same time. Adding guys like a Verlander may not be possible. payrolls absolutely do help but only if you have a somewhat decent home grown core. the 2000s Yankees had williams, Mo, jeter and Posada all coming up from their own farm and then of course they bought some big guys. but even they did a Little rebuild 2 years ago when they sold Chapman, miller and some other minor guys because they couldn't win with an aging droup anymore, any Team at least has to do a Little retool after 6-7 years of competing. and the dodgers and cubs of Course have spectacular home grown cores. now of course it does help to extend the window if you can sign a lester or heyward or you can extend some of your home grown guys. A pure home grown Team can win too but usually only for 3-4 years before another sell-off Needs to happen. to win over a longer time (6-7 years) you Need both a good home grown core but also some high Level signings.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 08:03 AM) Yeah. How many teams need 1B exactly? Teams could sign Santana, Hosmer, and even Morrison and Bruce just for money. And that doesn't even count the teams that could potentially convert corner outfielders to 1B and sign another outfielder. I've thought all season that it's more likely Abreu signs an extension for about 4-5 years buying out his last 2 arbitration years than the Sox getting a haul for him. maybe if the sox eat 10-15M that could improve the package. the value of sluggers is a Little down due to the HR surge but I think last year was somewhat an aberation. I think the value will remain a Little down but EE and bautista who are often named as examples also were older sluggers. Hosmer will probably still get 150M for example and he isn't really a slugger. there still will be a Need for sluggers albeit the time when sluggers were given 200+M contracts might be over. Also a Team might prefer 2 years of abreu vs having to commit for 7 years to hosmer or 4 years to Santana. I think there is a market for abreu but it is limited of course.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 08:30 AM) It wasn't a long season at all, he played 89 games after missing the first month due to injury, I see no issue with him playing in the DWL. then it makes sense. I did not think that he had missed that many games, with only 89 games of course it makes sense to get some extra reps.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 06:44 AM) Where the hell does a 4.5 WAR projection come from exactly? He’s put up 14.5 WAR over four seasons (3.6 avg). He’s coming off a 4.1 WAR season and has exactly one season below 3.2. To expect him to suddenly drop to a 2.2 WAR in his age 31 & 32 seasons is crazy to me. I would question any projection system that is predicting that type of fall off. To me, I don’t see how anything below 6 WAR makes any sense and I would expect him to be closer to a 7 WAR player. So combine that surplus value with the draft pick he’ll get you when/if he leaves in free agency and he should be plenty valuable. fangraphs. after Age 31 the projections subtract about 0.5 WAR per year (and I think like 0.8 or so after Age 35). the projection says 2.8 for 2018 (291/349/520 line with a 129 wRC+ and 145 games played), so minus 0.5 that leaves 2.3 for 2019. BTW I just realized my math was wrong, of course it is 5.1 WAR. however I think my salary estimation was also low, the expecation is around 17 and 20M, so the value is 46M vs a value of 37M. so there is some Surplus value but not a ton. I could actually see the projections being a Little low, so maybe I would give him 6 WAR which means a Surplus value of around 17M (at 9 M per win). here is an article what prospects are worth https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the...-100-prospects/ abreu should give you a top 100 but not really much more, maybe a top100 and one or two Lotto tickets with some warts.

I think it Comes down to the Price. if Hahn gets a haul abreu will be gone, no doubt about that. but if they only get a marginal package they might just as well Keep him around to make moncada and Robert happy. but if you get a really good package you Need to trade him, Team chemistry is important but most important is Talent.

QUOTE (Quin @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 01:44 AM) I didn't like parting with Q (Eloy made it good in retrospect), but I would absolutely loathe losing Abreu. Sadly, it makes sense if they get their price. But Jose is just a wonderful presence. I'd need following packages, if we're asking arm and both legs. Red Sox: Groome, Chavis + Flier - Groome helps balance the lack of LHP, Chavis shores up 3rd. Cardinals: Kelly, Perez ++ Rockies: Dahl, Pint + Flier Really have no clue who the fourth interested team is. I would love those but abreu is projected for about 4.5 WAR in two years of control which is worth roughly 40M on the open market. his projected salary is like 30M for those two years if not a Little more so he doesn't have a ton of Surplus value. there is some upside with abreu but I don't think he has more than like 15M of Surplus value(and that is extremely optimistic). that is roughly the value of one grade 50 (bottom of top100) prospect. now you might find a Team overpay some but not much. also if you want JBJ for abreu you don't get any additional pieces expect maybe a throw in guy. JBJ has a lot more suplus value than abreu, if anything the sox would Need to add. now the red sox Need a slugger so I might see them overpay some but still we are mostly talking a one for one swap here. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dont-trade-...for-jose-abreu/ maybe if the sox throw in some cash they can get a better prospect. if they don't eat cash getting groome or kelly straight up would be a great deal.

I don't think baserunning is a factor either way in his value. He is neither really good nor bad.

why did he Play there at all? He had a Long season with full season minor league ball and the AFL. winter ball is for Players who missed a large chunk of the offseason, he would have been better off resting 2-3 weeks and then starting Lifting and other Fitness Training for the off season. don't want to wear down that Body, especially because he already had some injury Problems in the past.

I would sell high on him now. he has made some really improvements (physically and Approach) but still he was quite lucky last year and still is a bad Defender so that isn't a Bonus if his hitting Comes down. his BABIP was 392 which lead the Majors I think. he always was a high BABIP guy but 330 is more realisitic than 390. his xwOBA was 40 Points higher than his wOBA and his projections have him at a 110 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR next year. that is a useful MLB Player but still basically average, he won't repeat the 4 WAR, 137 wRC+ unless he increases his power (without losing much on average).

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Nov 24, 2017 -> 01:18 PM) This is a good idea. When I think of Appel, Archie Bradley comes to mind. Maybe Appel, like Bradley, would thrive in the pen. Worth a shot IMHO. Appell is more of a project though. Bradley had trouble finding the zone and avoiding walks be he mostly had good K rates. Appell has high walk rates but also isn't missing bats. He would need to find another pitch to miss bats which at almost 26 isn't easy to do. That is different from the wild stuff guy who just needs to find the zone. He is very much a long shot right now. Still worth a try probably if you get him for free or almost free.

Mark Appel, former first Overall pick has been DFAed by the phillies. he was absolutely terrible the last years but I think he still has a good arm. maybe the sox should pick him up for nothing and see if their pitching coaches can at least make a reliever out of him.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 23, 2017 -> 08:52 AM) It was more how his body filled out than his numbers. at least that part of the miggy comparisons worked out pretty fast:D.