Dominikk85

Trading avi or abreu could make sense but only if the market gets better. I wouldn't trade them for a pair of 40 prospects or so. Problem is that the market for bats currently is not good, maybe it gets better next year. If they get a real top100 prospect and a solid depth piece either is gone but I'm not sure a team is going to pay that.

QUOTE (Wanne @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 12:25 PM) Oh I disagree...it's really a crap shoot with any of these guys. But having Singer, Turang, Kelenic, Rocker, Gray, Beer, Hankins, Kowar? Would I rather pick 2nd or 3rd...sure. But it's not the end of the world. Honestly...I'd rather see this group of guys finish the season having great success and carrying it over into next year...than wallow to the finish line. But honestly...the remaining schedule after Detroit is no picnic. Sox will be fine... Here is the stats. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changin...of-draft-picks/ 7 or 11 is not a big difference but after the first 2-3 there is the biggest drop off. After 10 or so the level drops of quite gradually. Btw very important loss today. A loss against Detroit basically counts twice.

It would really suck to fall back to 4 or even 5, there often is a big drop off in quality after the top3 picks and the bonus money also gets worse. Really 4 or 10 isn't that big of a difference, the biggest gaps in talent you find at the top. Doesn't mean you cant find a star at 4 but generally the expectation shifts from star to average regular when you go back to the mid part of the top10.

I think the no HS pitcher first overall is also a bit of a tradition thing. Hs pitchers are far away an might be higher risk but it is also that no scout wants to get fired because his first overall pick busts so they don't go against the convention. The last two years the consensus best player available according to most scosts was a hs pitcher (groome and green) and both fell some albeit groome a lot more. Also many teams now like college picks because they get to the show earlier, if you want a hs pick it has to be a fast athletic guy who can play center or shortstop. Maybe that even is a market inefficiency but at a top3 pick everyone wants to play it safe.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Sep 10, 2017 -> 06:23 AM) Those are interesting comments from Hahn, which I had not seen. Thanks for the link. Well, perhaps Hahn is going to try to assemble a core of almost exclusively kids. If that is his plan, then the Sox probably will not be contenders until 2020, or 2021. I had hoped for 2019. BTW abreu would already have gone if not for two reasons: 1. The market for corner bats is really low, they currently don't have a lot of value unless they hit like David Ortiz. 2. He might be kept kind of as a buddy for the Cubans who haven't always had the easiest time integrating in the past. I think point 2 is the more minor one but it might give abreu some extra points. If there was a real offer he would be gone but not for a handful of fringy prospects.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 9, 2017 -> 04:54 PM) Just to stress - "Low walks" did not describe Davidson when he was in the minors. It's genuinely surprising that he's walking so few times right now as that wasn't him before he came up. Hopefully this is a step in his development. Problem is that he chases a lot, 35% outside the zone swing rate. He needs to lower that number preferably to under 30%.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 8, 2017 -> 12:58 PM) Trading Jose in any way to "make room" for Delmonico and Davidson would be a very stupid move. If the right deal is there sure, make it. You don't even consider Delmonico or Davidson's playing time in the equation. For a guy that is essentially bad Adam Dunn, Davidson gets way too much f***ing love here. Cool, he hits HR. He's also a butcher in the field and has an .280 OBP. There is more to baseball than HR. I agree. I would trade abreu for a really good offer but davidson doesn't have a good profile. Plus power but unlike adam dunn he doesn't just strike out but he doesn't walk. Low walks and high Ks just don't work in almost all cases. I wouldn't write davidson off but he dramatically needs to improve either plate discipline or contact ability. You can't chase pitches and also miss pitches over the plate at that level.

Not worried about his mlb stats, trout just had a 87 wRC+ his first 135 mlb PAs. However I'm a little worried that he hasn't really lowered his K rate in AAA this year. He is still very young but I would like to see at least some improvement in that regard. Still if he can stay at 30% in the majors while keeping the walks up and hitting for some power he will be at least a solid player even if it is with a lowish average. And if he can lower it to 23-24% he can become a star. Bryant also struck out 30% in the minors and his first year and then improved to low 20s. That improvement is rare and most do not make it above A ball but it can happen.

If otani is really coming over next year he isn't doing it for the money and could just as well take 300k instead of 10m. I think the most important thing for him is finding a team in mlb that gives him a chance to hit at least semi full time (400+ PAs or so). For a player like him 10m is really a chump change. If he was in for the money he would wait 2 years and get a 250+M contract.

Heyward is a plus plus defender at a corner and can also play cf if you need to while garcia is really bad with the glove. It is true that avi right now has about a peak heyward season with the bat but it is his first of that caliber and aided by a high babip. But even if he was a better hitter than heyward there still would be that massive defensive gap. Team now consider outfield defense a lot and the time when you only cared about the bat of corner outfield is over. Still the deal looks bad now but only because heyward declined from a 110 ops+ hitter to a replacement level hitter.

QUOTE (turnin' two @ Aug 24, 2017 -> 09:43 PM) Wouldn't you be absolutely thrilled with a draft pick that results in a Paul Konerko like player? Absolutely, if you are sure seth beer becomes Paul konerko you take him. The problem is that if a corner bat just turns out to be a little bit less but still solid there isn't any other value outside of the bat and a first baseman with a 105 wRC+ is almost a replacement level hitter even though his bat has developed quite good (but not great). That means the bar for such a bat is very high which is why most try to avoid it with a top5 pick. You only take beer top3 if you are really sure that he is by far the best bat in the draft by some margin.

I think the one pick is gone to the Phillies. Now just make sure the A's or reds don't overtake you. 2 or 3 is a very nice pick but it would suck to fall to 4 or 5 because then the options and also the bonus pool money gets quite a bit worse.

Otani would be stupid to come over, financially that would be a terrible decision. Not only he only gets a dime for signing but the worst thing is that he is under control for 6 years meaning at least 4 years of s***ty pay. Actually he makes now in japan as much per year as he would make in his first 3 years combined in mlb. If he has any brain or his agent has he stays two more years in japan and then signs a 300m deal. Of course he could get injured but don't forget he makes more in japan now than the mlb minimum so even in that case he would be better off staying in japan.

If there is a semi decent offer he will be traded.however of course the market for corner type players is terrible currently so I doubt it will be a top100 prospect. I would be ok with a 45 prospect (maybe a high velo future relief arm) and maybe a long shot lotto ticket.

To me I think he needs to hit the ball more in the air. He does take his walks but with his strikeouts he hits too many grounders and thus doesn't get enough to his raw power although it leads to high babips. I think he will improve his Ks some but not under like 27-28%. For that profile to work best I think he should have a profile like adam dunn. That sounds scary as a sox fan becausebut you know the old dunn but prime dunn regularly had an ops of over 900 with a high 20s K rate. More fly balls might mean a slightly lower average but if he hits 40 hr with 100 walks and a 250 average like prime dunn that would be a great hitter. So I think the best for him would be to get the ball more off the ground (low 40s% instead of high 40s)

Why not? The sox leaned on bats the last two drafts and rightfully so but still they could use another tor prospect as some of their top guys are talented but risky. I would prefer a highly talented up the middle guy but if you only have the choice between another unathletic masher and a high profile pitcher I might even prefer the pitcher. Don't get me wrong, it was good to get some save, polished bats into the system because the sox were lacking that but now they probably need other types.

I don't think the return is that good but then again there wasn't really a market for Gonzalez. At least the guy has physical tools evidenced by his second round selection even though he has not hit in pro ball. Still I don't expect him to make the majors, his k to bb rate is really bad and while he has some raw pop it hasn't translated to game power. Problem is is that he hits too many grounders (50%), he needs to elevate more to maybe become a poor mans roughned odor.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Aug 11, 2017 -> 03:41 PM) I suppose this is as good a place as any, to get a clarification on a question I have: Using MLB.com's "Pipeline," I don't understand how they derive some of these "overall" grades. For example, here is Alec Hansen's line: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50. How do they compute a 50 overall grade from those numbers? The overall grade is not computed from the single values but is how good you expect the pitcher to be. Basically an estimation of ERA factoring whether he will be a starter or reliever (relievers basically never get a grade above 50 no matter how good they are). 50 means future average regular, that is the grade low level top 100 prospects (75-100) get usually. 45 means like utility but for a reliever that is a solid grade.

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Aug 11, 2017 -> 01:40 PM) Not a big deal, but does it irk anyone else that the day a prospect "graduates," they are worth zero in these kinds of rankings? I get that they have become major leaguers, and that lists like this are just a snapshot in time, but I would love some kind of system that uses weights of some kind so players could still factor in in some form. It's not like a guy like Moncada is a prospect with X major league at bats and not a prospect with X+1 major league at bats. It'd be cool if there was room for scale or gradient. Actually not true. Players remain in the prospect list until they have have exceeded their rookie status (130 ab or 50 ip)

Both are excellent. The one thing atlanta has is that their prospects have performed, so the braves haven proven to be able to improve their prospects. The jury on that is still out for the sox. Doesn't mean it has to be bad. In the last years they did a solid job with pitching and not so much with hitting but then again they also didn't have prospects who were that talented. Really player developement will make the difference here.the sox basocally only acquired prospects and now they need to develope them. If they do well with that next year and lopez, giolito, rutherford, moncada and others take a step forward I believe they have the best raw talent and could overtake the braves. But if the prospects stagnate and the braves take another jump the braves will be the best.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 10, 2017 -> 05:17 PM) http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=m...itting/2017/ALL Tucker went from 9 to 18 homers (so far) this season but he's not exactly tearing up AA. 785 ops. Will be 21 at beginning of next year. He could of course develope power and many hs players take longer to get to their power and he is only in his second year. Trout also only hit 10 hr his second year. The reason for concern is more that Rutherford was old for a hs draftee so people expected the power to come quicker as most power growth tends to come from 18-20. However part of his lack of power is swing plane/launch angle so maybe there might be some free power there when developing his swing and decreasing his grounder rate.

I only consider beer Top3 when he truely has another monster year and is far and away the best college hitter. If he has another good year like last season (1000 ops) he is good but not top10 talent. But if he has a 1200 ops like in his first year his bat might be so good that position doesn't matter so much. But at a 1000 ops he is just another good college bat he might be a corner of best case and 1b/DH worst case. If I get beer with a 1000 ops and a shortstop with a little 950 ops the choice should be pretty easily against beer. But if he truely dominates and is heads and holders above any other college hitter he might be worth taking a shot.

Sox team (title too long) Obviously moncada, rodon and hopefully anderson but who else could play a role? I'm not just talking about starters but also guys who might only have a backup role (having a 1 WAR 25th man over a minus 1 win guy can be crucial too). Having negative war back end players was one of the problems of the Sox teams of the last years so finding those depth pieces on waivers, rule 5 or minor trades as well as the current roster is important too albeit of course the main focus is finding above average starters which should be around already in the minors to a large extent.

I think it was good that they got the sluggers because it means you at least likely get 2-3 mlb bats who can slug a little and get on base. Ideally you have those guys at premium positions but having them at the corners is better than nothing,those guys are relatively safe. But now it is really enough of those types, they say there is a spot for a guy that can hit but it gets a lot easier to find a spot for a premium athlete. Of course the athletes had their failures with athletes who can't hit and it was good they got polished hitters but at top3 overall I think they might be able to get a guy who is an athlete AND can hit already.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Aug 5, 2017 -> 07:33 AM) I personally think we get diminishing returns with more pitching. We already have a glut of starters in the pipeline and adding another high end one means someone like Hansen or Giolito loses a potential opportunity. Now, if Singer is hands down the best player, by all means take him, but if it's close I'd definitely lean position player. An elite SS prospect like Turang would be a huge get for the system and provide us with a potential impact player a few years into our competive window. I would also prefer a middle infielder but if there is not a high level one left I would prefer another TOR prospect over another corner type slugger. You can never have enough pitchers and middle infielders.