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You will get none of them and you will like it!

I have been trying to think about second round options, but I have come to the conclusion its much too soon to do that now. Any player who was ranked in that range is likely either doing well so they are rising above our pick or they are doing poorly so they are falling below our pick. In reality our pick is likely to either be someone that is currently in the 4th round area who keeps rising or someone who is in the first round area who keeps slipping.

I gotta say, I really love our position in the draft. Yeah, it would be nicer to be #1, but we are going to end up with either a crazy college bat, a really good bat that is also a really good catcher, or a HS SS with huge upside.

MLB owners suck.

Not really. If you are going to use a reliever a few times a week anyway, why not use him in the first instead of the seventh or eighth? Yeah, I think you are thinking of something else. This isn't a bullpen game like you might see in the playoffs. The idea behind an opener is that you use a reliever who can concentrate on only getting a few guys out open the game so that the starter doesn't have to come out against the other team's best players right away. It is a better matchup, and if you are going to use a reliever to get through those guys when they come up a third time, why not just use them the first time so that the starter gets to face them one fewer time. The whole idea revolves around two facts: pitchers give up more runs each time through the order and pitchers are worse in the first inning compared to the second inning. The second part of this is likely due to the fact that in the first inning it is guaranteed the pitcher is facing the top of the order who are likely the best hitters. In games where you do not have a TOR starter on the mound that can get these guys out, why not start out with a reliever who is more likely to be successful, and then instead of having the starter go innings 1-6 and then relievers 7,8,9, you can go with a reliever in the first inning and then the starter for the same 6 inning amount but now those innings are 2-7 with relievers in 8 & 9. You are using the same number of pitchers, but putting them in an order which is more likely to limit run production.

One reason I don't think it will happen is because Zimmerman has a NTC. I feel like the only way a trade works is if its a three way with him going to another contender or if we agree to release him right away so he can sign on somewhere else.

I just keep having this thought that the Orioles end up passing on all the college talent. They are obviously at the start of what seems like it will be a long rebuild. If the new FO feels secure in their jobs, I could see them opting for the HS talent over the college guys because he is a more premium position, higher upside, and is less likely to burn through years of control and years of their prime (plus years of health for a catcher) than the college players who could be in the majors in two years.

Yeah, I agree. Especially with him being 6'3" there is probably some amount of him still learning to fully control his body. I think its very much a Royce Lewis situation where once you get him in a baseball program and concentrating on one position full time then he will advance quickly. Plus, worst case he would probably be plus at second or center.

From a Longenhagen chat: Normally, speed guys are supposed to be good defenders. What keeps a guy like CJ Abrams at a 50 FV as a fielder? Eric A Longenhagen: We have Abrams evaluated at SS right now but he has issues throwing from those weird athletic platforms that shortstops need to be able to throw from to be really good there. So he has elite range, his hands are fine, his windup/max effort arm strength is good, but he still may not be all that great at short because he can’t make these types of throws

Classic mix up. They like each other, but Harper doesn't like like Kenny like that.

Its funny. Last year I was super embarrassed whenever they showed stats about how bad our attendance was or they showed our empty stadium. Now I am going to revel in it. I hope to have the worst attendance in the history of the team. Maybe that will embarrass or scare the FO.

One of the things you leave out though is the availability of viable replacements. You do need people who can play first, but if there are 25 good ones in the league, its less expensive to get one. On the other hand, catchers that can hit are extremely rare, so having a guy who will be at least an average bat there while also being a good defender is really hard to replace and as such would be incredibly expensive.

Maybe if he thinks the Sox are actually willing to be one of the higher bidders he doesn't want to piss them off and make them less receptive to negotiations. Plus, right now there are enough other teams being thrown around to increase the price that he doesn't need to bring the Sox up. Once things get closer to finished he can leak it for that last few million, but no need to do that yet.

His track record is of wild inconsistency. Plus, one more leg injury and he might be a 1B only. At that point, his offensive output might not be nearly enough to justify the cost. Because then we also get the upside if he is outperforming his deal. With a three year opt out, we take a huge amount of downside risk and we don't also get the upside. Its really an asymmetric payoff especially when we are not supposed to contend for at least 1/3 of the upside portion of the deal.

The problem is the risk that if he sucks that he won't opt out. So we are taking on ~$200m of risk for 1 year of contention. That risk might be small, but that sum is very large.

I don't think we should worry too much about that. There are too many other teams with multiple picks before our second pick for us to pinch pennies to try to float someone down. I mean if all things are equal, then we should take the cheaper one, but I doubt there would be a clear split like that.

But another part of it has to be how useful he will be in the pre-opt out years. If we were in the middle of our window of contention then you are willing to take those risks, but when maybe 2 years and likely really only 1 year are going to be when we are competing, the FO (and JR) might not see it as worth that risk.

I don't think you can just take off two years at the AAV. You are expecting Machado to outperform his AAV on the front end to justify overpaying his performance on the back end. So those two years Machado has on Arenado should be at more than the AAV, which means it will be about what he is offered now. Plus, with that two year difference he could still make some amount of money on another contract. If I were him I might try to get a little more, maybe adding on some deferred money, but otherwise I would probably take it.

Are you sure its not more of a door-sized window?

How much have you been able to watch him? I haven't seen him yet, but I was wondering if you had any insight as to why they have his hit tool so low. I would think with how good he is doing that his hit tool would be at least average and if not then there must be something obviously wrong with it.

They now have Abrams at 2 and Misner at 9 with the added info that the Sox have him on their short list already.

Well I mean they could still go after him. What, would the Phillies complain to the league that we broke their illegal agreement?

I was thinking about changes that could be reasonable already. The most plausible scenario I could come up with yet is that the Orioles opt for a high school player because they know their rebuild is going to take a while so they don't want to waste any years of control from a college player. Then the Royals would have both Vaughn and Adley available. I could see them taking Adley because he is the best player, but I could also see them taking Vaughn because he is a much better bat and the Royals already have a pretty good catching prospect they like. Then we would have our pick of Adley or whatever top HS prospect the Orioles didn't take.

From all accounts from scouts, its first base only.

I don't think so. Pretty sure JR was found to be involved in the collusion last time too. I think last time they allowed the players effected to look for new contracts but also keep their current ones if they couldn't find better offers and the owners also had to pay the players association some amount of money which they could split up.