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Yeah, Hahn is helping his good friend Jon Daniels try to get Rendon so they can compete.

I would still only put the o/u at 5.5 of that lineup having over a 100 wRC+

Once again this FO thinks they can take a post hype prospect and turn them around. It still hasn't worked yet. We bought high on Rutherford and he hasn't done anything. We bought high on Casey Gillaspie and now he is in indy ball. And now we buy high on Mazara who is probably going to end up being nontendered going into next year. Maybe the 57th time is the charm, or maybe this organization should actually invest in player development.

IIRC, he basically pulls the ball on the ground and sprays it in the air which is basically the exact opposite of what you want. The ground ball pull tendency makes infield shifts easy and effective while hitters usually have their best power to pull side so he isn't getting that as often. In that regard, it seems like he might be a swing change candidate, so I can see him being good in the right organization, I just don't know if that's us.

Well yeah, but the point is the pipeline to trade from likely won't develop because we no longer will be picking at the top of the draft or trading useful major leaguers away.

But that requires development and as that Driveline study last year showed, we were far and away the worst organization at developing players.

There are better options, we just didn't even try for them. We went after the second tier and still got beat.

I could go back and listen, but I think that was the point. Other guys who had similar numbers over small samples all ended up doing well outside of one person who got injured.

The Statcast podcast had a good segment on him. It's worth the listen, but the general point was that very few people who put up numbers like he did end up being bad. So while it might be a smaller sample, he might actually be less volatile than other relievers.

They better bring a better team to the next qualifying event. It will be embarrassing if we don't even make the Olympics.

They have the next 8 months to spend the money. J2 doesn't mealy July is the only time you can sign people. The window remains open until mid-June. If they want to sign any amateurs that pop up between now and then (and there are a lot with the Cuban defections), they need this money.

Fuck Jerry Reinsdorf and everyone he has hired to run this organization into the ground so he can make a buck

I don't know if he will be 2020 or if he will be cleared and sign in this current period, but Pedro Manuel Leon has left Cuba. IMO, he was one of the top 2 or 3 best players left. Hopefully we have enough money to make a run at him whichever period he decides to sign in.

I think what you have to do is ask the Red Sox if they are willing to trade him, and if they are then ask if you can first contact Mookie's agent. You don't need to agree to a deal, just to see what kind of number he would need to see to forego free agency and see if you are comfortable going to that number for him. At least to me, this isn't the same as agreeing to a trade contingent upon an extension, so we should only have to pay the price for one year of control and not the many more from the extension. Once we get him we then negotiate for the extension knowing it is going to be close to market rate. You take the number he said he wanted and basically offer that and make him turn you down and risk playing a whole year just to maybe get a little more. That said, I don't see us doing it. I think its much more likely they try to sign him to an extension and let JDM walk when he tries to add a year or two to his deal. And even if they do put Mookie on the market, I think some other team will be willing to pay him enough to agree to an extension and the Red Sox will let the team negotiate so they can get a better package in return. At that point I think we are better off avoiding it because it would simultaneously limit our payroll flexibility and greatly reduce our prospect capital.

I looked at his statcast page and there are a lot of blue boxes. Hopefully that means there are things he can work on and not that he is just untalented. One of the questions I have is will he have the same ability as Giolito to work on stuff in the offseason? If he has to go back to the DR, do they have the same type of analytics based training that they do here at places like driveline? Or will he be able to stay or come back to work on that stuff? Just from looking at his numbers, I would wonder if he tries to add a cutter. His slider gets pretty good results from an xwoba perspective even though its flatter than normal. On the other hand, his four seamer get hit around even though it has above average horizontal break. Maybe by adding a cutter between those two there are no longer two distinct pitches batters can recognize, but one pitch which looks like another which looks like another. Three different speeds, two directions of break, and two degrees of break in the same direction. I would also call up James Shields and get him to coach him up on the changeup and see if he can get some more vertical break to it. A four pitch mix of 4 seam, cutter, slider, change with the occasional curve thrown in could probably be more effective than he was this year. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player-scroll?player_id=625643#pitchTypes

This is what I don't think people get. They think the coverup is players doing steroids again when the real coverup is MLB saying they didn't change the ball on purpose. When we look back on this in a decade, people are going to be asking how no one noticed that MLB changed the ball when it was so obvious and the answer will be that people did, just not the people who were looking for steroids again.

Well pitchers now have a better understanding of pitch movement and pitch tunneling/sequencing than ever before. But also, IIRC the laces aren't as low this year but the leather is different. They are using a new one designed to prevent the blistering issues pitchers were having and apparently it is more aerodynamic than the previous leather. In that case the break over a shorter distance would likely still be there, but over a longer distance the drag would still probably be lower than a non-juiced ball.

I don't think there is any real debate that it is the ball. With all the technology at the games now they can literally show that the ball is traveling further for any given velocity and launch angle. They have also tracked that the ball doesn't slow down as much between coming out of the pitcher's hand and crossing the plate. Then there are all the numbers with the AAA leagues using the MLB ball instead of the MiLB ball and how the home run rates skyrocketed. The most important thing to note with regards to the AAA ball change is how players hit for more home runs in AAA than they did in AA in the same season, which would rule out any effects of steroids unless you believe all these players only started taking steroids once they got to AAA. On top of all of that statistical evidence, there is also the anecdotal evidence of all the pitchers who say the ball feels different this year and it effects how they pitch.

Why? Apparently attendance and viewership numbers are up this year which seemingly would mean revenues are also up. They are already seeking season ticket renewals which would give them every reason to pump up hopes again. Sure, KW and Hahn took some heat, but in the end nothing bad actually happened after that died down. And these guys aren't as big of names as those guys so it would likely get even less blow back from common fans when we miss but it would provide hope for those that know them.

Interestingly, in 2016 the Browns hired Paul DePodesta who was one of the original moneyball guys. In fact, he was who Jonah Hill's character in the Moneyball movie was based on. Apparently the Browns are kind of on the cutting edge of the analytics revolution in football. So a few years from now we might look back at the Browns like the Astros when they sucked but then came to rule the league with analytics.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=30&stats=bat&qual=y&type=1&team=&season=2019&seasonEnd=2019&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=18,1&pagenum=0 Laureano and Bailey finished 8 and 10, respectively, in the DSL in wRC+ among qualified hitters. If you lower the required ABs, then Reuben Benavides also is on the list and is even higher than Laureano and Bailey.

I feel like I just woke up from some weird fever dream

Yeah, I think anything in the top 10 should get us a good player. It sounds like this draft has a deeper first tier, but that first tier isn't as impactful as this year when the top 2 or 3 were highly ranked in the top 100 right after they got drafted.

They aren't going to get anyone good and they aren't going to move. They are going to get some middling acquisition that will help us reach .500 and more people will show up because we have such low standards after seeing the shit product they have put out there that we will think a .500 team is amazing. And that is exactly why we won't move from Chicago. We have been abused by this franchise for most of its history that now any time we are not the worst team in the division people will be excited. So we are an easily excitable fanbase in a major metropolitan area which is basically an owner's dream.

I'm generally a pretty positive person, so I'm going to try to put a spin on this shit deadline. Maybe standing pat means Hahn is finally feeling the heat and knows he doesn't have much time left to actually produce a winning team. If that is the case, maybe we actually will spend some real money to get better this offseason.