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https://sodomojo.com/2018/11/11/seattle-mariners-3-more-suitors-james-paxton/ The package they have for Paxton from the Sox is Dunning and Collins.

So we can cross the Phillies off the list of possibilities.

That Burdi report is so heartening considering the last I heard on him was him sitting around 94. As for Adams, I don't really care one way or the other. If we have an extra spot, might as well try him out but I don't think anyone is saving a spot in the rotation for him.

Mods feel free to delete if this is too speculative, but I believe the town that he is from (Aventura) is part of Debbie Wasserman Schultz' district which might explain why he put her name as the return address on all of the packages.

Recent video of him taking some swings: Another one from a couple years ago: His swing looks pretty simple and flat planed. He is pretty small compared to Eloy and his father, so hopefully he has another growth spurt in him.

If we're competing against KBO and NPB teams then it should be pretty minimal. From a quick search the it looks like highest salary in the NPB is less than $5,000,000 and only 38 players have salaries over $2,000,000. However I don't know how the posting works with the CPBL compared to the new agreement with the NPB and KBO. If it follows those systems he might be included in the international amateur pool because he hasn't played 6 years yet. If that is the case, I don't think we'd be able to get him for $300,000 when so many other teams have pool money to blow and not many targets left.

So far as I can tell from this listing of all team personnel, there really are only 2 analytically focused people with a third who is somewhat focused on it. Matt Koenig Emily Blady Devin Pickett If this really is all that we have (and it does appear that way), that is really extremely disappointing to me. I understand having a balance between analytics and traditional means, but this isn't even anywhere near balance. Having a strong enough analytics staff to not only keep up with the game, but find advantages that others don't is how teams that don't have the resources of the Yankees and Red Sox are supposed to compete, yet we are even passed up by the Red Sox and Dombrowski who seems to be about as traditional in scouting and strategy as is acceptable in today's game.

So what gate do we put the Tony Wolters statue by?

One guy I like now is CJ Abrams. He very much reminds me of Royce Lewis in that he is an extremely athletic guy who is playing SS but many think he will end up in center, but like Royce he could end up being a really solid SS once he specializes more. From my looks at him and from scouting reports it seems like he has a great hit tool for his age and near top of the scale speed, but might be missing some of the power, but if I have to take a guy with power and hope he grows into a hit tool (Witt) or a guy with a good hit tool and hope he grows into power (Abrams), I am taking the second guy all day especially with the juiced ball and small guys like Mookie hitting 30 homers a year.

I'm of two minds on this. One says that internet sleuths were able to figure out the date this supposedly happened in like 10 minutes so the FBI should be able to do some real digging with subpeona power, but on the other hand they probably will not be able to find any real conclusive evidence because it was so long ago so it might come down to whether his friends can hold up and are willing to lie to the FBI for him because then it will become a case of conflicting testimony and at that point I don't think it will be enough for two Republicans to vote no.

They just said Murkowski was in contact with him before the vote and wanted the same thing. There are the two you needed to make sure he doesn't get confirmed on the floor.

If he were the only one to cross party lines it would be 50-50 and then Pence would be the deciding vote. What him doing this likely signals is that there were others who were going to vote no or at least wanted this investigation also.

So it seems what is happening is they basically passed his through the judiciary committee but Flake proposes letting the FBI investigate for up to one week. Why pass him through the committee before the investigation seems to be the big question. I think it is because it puts the Republicans in a better position to quickly act after the investigation and the Dems couldn't really stop that in the first place but not pressing him on it shows they are more interested in the investigation than just delaying the vote as long as possible. The next question seems to be how do we know the investigation is definitely going to happen? The answer is we don't because they didn't vote on it and the whole senate will have to vote to start it I believe. However, with Flake saying he wants an investigation and will vote NO without it, it kind of forces McConnell's hand because he could still try to push it through but it lets Murkowski and Collins (and Flake) vote NO for it because they can tell their constituents that an investigation was on the table and they could not vote YES while that was still an option. So McConnell can risk it if he thinks they have enough votes, but considering there was talk they didn't have enough votes even before this Flake thing it would be too risky for him to do that and likely have Kavanaugh voted down. If he really thinks the allegations are false (or that the truth can't be uncovered in one week) it would make much more sense to allow the investigation.

I mean if he got DFA'ed he would still get his money and then another player that wasn't on the roster would also get more money

I agree

I think there is some question about the younger brother. No one really knows how good he is or what kind of money he will be commanding. It is possible he could be had for $300K, but its likely even if he is only worth that much one of the teams with money left might swoop in and offer like $350K just to eliminate the penalized teams. I think there is also a question about Gaston. He is a teenager that can sit high 90s and has touched 100, but has absolutely zero control. He was supposed to sign for over one million with the Marlins but I think they delayed that to see if they can get Mesa, but now that he is doing a showcase he might be back on the market though it may be similar to the younger Mesa in that even if he is only worth $300K he will probably he offered more. So I guess its unlikely we get any of them, but I will be keeping an eye out for reports on the younger Mesa bro and Gaston.

I think Lexington, which was the Royals affiliate, is still available too for class A.

Isn't it opposite? If they finish with the same number of wins as another team they will pick lower because they have a slightly higher winning percentage because they played one fewer game. They can't mess up and win the game, but they also do not get to go to a tie breaker if they finish with the same number of wins.

FG updated their draft rankings for 2019, 2020, and 2021, though the last two are smaller updates. They also got a nifty new prospect-centric page at fangraphs.com/prospects https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fall-equinox-draft-board-update/ https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft They have Rutschman as the lone 55 FV right now, but they have 11 other 50 FV guys right now. It seems like the two HS hitters they are highest on are CJ Abrams and Corbin Carroll. I said earlier I thought we would take Abrams, but I could see us taking Carroll because he has been good all summer but he is a little undersized.

What about LaMarre? He hasn't been horrible since we acquired him and his splits against lefties are really solid.

Cease had decent walk numbers, but from what it sounds like he still is only at a level of command where he can make sure he fills up the strike zone, but he doesn't have enough control to continually hit his spots. It is something that probably won't show up in the stats at AA because he still has good enough stuff to blow past most guys, but it might get him in trouble at AAA and the majors. I will say though that it does sound like he improves every time there is a new scouting report on him, so there might still be some questions on the command, but by the time he reaches the majors those might be smaller.

Apparently there is a decently strong correlation between stats in the upper minors (think AA and AAA) and major league performance, but there is almost no relation between performance at the lower levels and at the majors. This makes sense and kind of fits with the general narrative that AA is really the make-or-break level. So when taking into account only performance, we will probably look worse because so many of our high level guys are still in the low minors where stats matter less. Also, do they take into account league factors because any hitters in the PCL or Appy League are going to look a lot better than their tools actually are if they don't.

Actually I think it does. Here is the relevant quote from a 2013 Tribune article: And a couple more relevant ones from the article: What is really interesting about that last one is that Berlin ended up selling and buying into the Cubs when he bought the South Bend team that became the Cubs affiliate, so I would assume JR bought those shares from Berlin further consolidating his stake though Berlin could still be an option for buying the whole team because he stated he wants to be a majority owner of a team. I guess what could happen is that they sell the team and the other owners still want to stick around so they buy in as part of the group with the new majority owner.

The FG guys in general are higher than most on smaller, speedy, middle infielders with great hit tools and good defense while they are really low on "stuff" pitchers that aren't big or have control issues (and Cease fits both categories). I think both of them still think Cease will be a reliever, so its really not that bad of a ranking with that in mind.

Yeah, I think you're right. I was thinking burning getting the seventh year and not a full year. Good catch.