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Isn't it opposite? If they finish with the same number of wins as another team they will pick lower because they have a slightly higher winning percentage because they played one fewer game. They can't mess up and win the game, but they also do not get to go to a tie breaker if they finish with the same number of wins.

FG updated their draft rankings for 2019, 2020, and 2021, though the last two are smaller updates. They also got a nifty new prospect-centric page at fangraphs.com/prospects https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fall-equinox-draft-board-update/ https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft They have Rutschman as the lone 55 FV right now, but they have 11 other 50 FV guys right now. It seems like the two HS hitters they are highest on are CJ Abrams and Corbin Carroll. I said earlier I thought we would take Abrams, but I could see us taking Carroll because he has been good all summer but he is a little undersized.

What about LaMarre? He hasn't been horrible since we acquired him and his splits against lefties are really solid.

Cease had decent walk numbers, but from what it sounds like he still is only at a level of command where he can make sure he fills up the strike zone, but he doesn't have enough control to continually hit his spots. It is something that probably won't show up in the stats at AA because he still has good enough stuff to blow past most guys, but it might get him in trouble at AAA and the majors. I will say though that it does sound like he improves every time there is a new scouting report on him, so there might still be some questions on the command, but by the time he reaches the majors those might be smaller.

Apparently there is a decently strong correlation between stats in the upper minors (think AA and AAA) and major league performance, but there is almost no relation between performance at the lower levels and at the majors. This makes sense and kind of fits with the general narrative that AA is really the make-or-break level. So when taking into account only performance, we will probably look worse because so many of our high level guys are still in the low minors where stats matter less. Also, do they take into account league factors because any hitters in the PCL or Appy League are going to look a lot better than their tools actually are if they don't.

Actually I think it does. Here is the relevant quote from a 2013 Tribune article: And a couple more relevant ones from the article: What is really interesting about that last one is that Berlin ended up selling and buying into the Cubs when he bought the South Bend team that became the Cubs affiliate, so I would assume JR bought those shares from Berlin further consolidating his stake though Berlin could still be an option for buying the whole team because he stated he wants to be a majority owner of a team. I guess what could happen is that they sell the team and the other owners still want to stick around so they buy in as part of the group with the new majority owner.

The FG guys in general are higher than most on smaller, speedy, middle infielders with great hit tools and good defense while they are really low on "stuff" pitchers that aren't big or have control issues (and Cease fits both categories). I think both of them still think Cease will be a reliever, so its really not that bad of a ranking with that in mind.

Yeah, I think you're right. I was thinking burning getting the seventh year and not a full year. Good catch.

Check my math here to see if I'm wrong somewhere: 2018 - service year 1 2019 - service year 2 2020 - service year 2 - keep him down for ~1.5 months (this september + regular 2 weeks needed) and he won't have enough for a full year of service 2021 - service year 3 2022 - service year 4 2023 - service year 5 2024 - service year 6

It will. I think the same thing (like even the September call up) happened with Reyes for the Cardinals. In other news whiskey sales on the South Side shot up 2354% during the evening rush

The biggest questions now should be how this impacts our offseason plan and if there is any way for us to get back some of that time that he is going to lose. I think any chance of us contending next year is probably gone now with some guys not taking the steps forward that we would have wanted and this leaving a spot in the top of the rotation open. I would not be surprised to see us sell off and try to push back our window a little further. Rodon looks great, but who knows if he will sign an extension and if we would even want to with how injured he has been. We should look what the landscape if like for him and weigh keeping him with the downside of another injury versus the risks of even more prospects. Abreu and Avi should probably be traded, but after their respective season I can't see that happening in the offseason, so we might have to go into next year with them and hope for a bounce back. If Castillo plays well this last month of the season he should attract some trade interest and he might be expendable with how good Narvaez has looked offensively and the catchers we have coming up through the system needing spots. Going into next year expecting to rebuild would also allow us to keep trotting Palka and Engel out there to see what they can become with even more major league experience. As for Kopech, assuming he is not healthy for all of next season, we may be able to justify sending him down to start 2020 so he can get back up to speed against lesser competition which would also give us a chance to gain an extra year of control which will make the pain of losing all of next year hurt less. If my math is right that would give us control through 2024 versus 2023.

Especially because he said it never progressed to pain but was just like normal soreness.

This is also the same team that DEVELOPED Chris Sale and attempted to help him pitch in a way that kept his arm healthy throughout the whole year as opposed to what is happening with the Red Sox where he misses a month with shoulder inflammation.

So can we agree Kopech's nickname is Rainmaker?

Looks like he is another guy that is rule 5 eligible.

Burr is rule 5 eligible this year.

Vaughn looks quite a bit different though (he is only 5'11"). The redeeming thing for him is that he might actually be able to play a corner outfield, especially for the Sox who seem to be much more lenient in defensive projection. My guy who I think will be available at our pick is CJ Abrams. I feel like he is very similar to Royce Lewis from a few years ago. His only weakness seems to be strength, but he has the frame to project more. He might be iffy at short right now, but give him time and he can probably clean it up and if not he would most likely easily be a plus defender in center with his speed. Witt seems more similar to Brendan Rodgers in that he has good speed that might slow down once he adds more weight, good power especially for short but a questionable hit tool that makes the whole profile volatile. I bet he still goes in the top 3 though because some team will fall in love with his upside, so he will likely be gone before the Sox pick if we keep winning at our recent pace.

I feel like he is the type of guy that wouldn't respond well to being kept down just for another year of control. It would probably hurt any chance we had of keeping him after the control as well as his mentality towards the team overall. I think Eloy might be different where he understands it more and would be more likely to agree to an early extension anyway, so I want to keep him down for the extra year.

And now he doesn't wear them. I really hope he didn't give up on them after one strikeout.

I have been saying that for a while. Vision is one of, if not the most important physical tools necessary to be a MLB hitter. On top of that, do you really want to be taking advice from Timmy who has struggled with strikeouts and making contact throughout his career? Moncada has put in a good game tonight so far and I am interested to see if he can keep it up with the glasses. Maybe if he does it will also convince TA to give them another shot and see if they can help him.

Burdi would be the easy pick for me if he stayed healthy, but after he TJS and coming back throwing more than 5mph slower so far, I want to see him performing at AAA again before I pick him, so my pick is Hamilton.

Yeah, I was thinking of Luke Shilling. Someone brought up in the AAP thread that if memory serves correctly Caranza was the guy that had the weird signing were we heard he was signed, but then he wasn't on the list the Sox released, but then he did sign later. That could have been because of this popping up on medicals and needing to renegotiate the bonus amount. If that is the case, what is interesting is that him being injured and being forced to take a lower bonus could be what allowed us to get Bryce Bush signed if Carranza's first agreed bonus was much bigger.

Didn't it happen in like his first game with us?

Not worthy of the Hall of Fame, but definitely worthy of the Hall of Niceeeeeeeeee