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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Oct 4, 2017 -> 02:18 PM) These 2 for sure. Yeah, definitely, I just went through and looked at guys in our top 30 and guys in AAA because those seem like the most likely players to poach and they fit the criteria.

QUOTE (Sleepy Harold @ Oct 4, 2017 -> 02:03 PM) James Fegan @JRFegan Replying to @JRFegan Sox need to protect Eloy Jimenez, Casey Gillaspie, Ryan Cordell from Rule 5 eligibility, case to be made for Jake Peter, Brian Clark, Jordan Guerrero...Micker Adolfo, Tito Polo. This frees up some space In addition, I believe that Luis Basabe, Ian Clarkin, Connor Walsh, Al Alburquerque, & Cody Asche are rule 5 eligible. I think we're going to leave a fair number of these unprotected.

QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Oct 4, 2017 -> 11:58 AM) Stanton is tough to value. There's really no excess value on that contract, but I have a hard time seeing MIA just dumping him after this past season unless they get something in return. I'd consider giving up Rutherford and a couple lower level guys for him. I don't see us outbidding others for a Harper, Machado, etc. in free agency. This is exactly why I would want us to get Stanton if the prospect cost isn't prohibitive. Everyone is saying they would rather have one of the other three guys, but what are the odds we actually get one of them? Not only would we have to match the offers from teams that have far greater financial resources, we would have to convince him to come to the south side, and when have we ever done that with top tier domestic free agents? Stanton may not provide as much value as some of the other guys, but he does give us certainty of having that top tier player whereas going after the other guys presents a risk of us missing out on all of them.

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 4, 2017 -> 11:06 AM) Past few years seems like there has been a disconnect with the Draft writers rising college talent up the boards and the actual draft picks. Think Kyle Wright, whose strong finish had writers putting him in 1-1 conversation. McKay too. I think the writers see the college kids more and have a slight (not big) disconnect on how the teams are valuing the HS kids. Fair point, but I think its also true that because college players generally play against better competition during the season, they have more time to have their stock rise for both draft writers and team scouts.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Oct 4, 2017 -> 09:38 AM) I'm thinking the Sox look to a premium position high school player with #4 overall, although it's obviously early to tell. You don't reach when picking in the top 5, you need to end up with the best talent available. Yeah, I think they have to go up-the-middle talent with the first pick. I think as of right now there are three premium up-the-middle talents at the top of the draft with Turang, De Sedas, and Kelenic. There doesn't seem to be any up-the-middle college guys that could go that high right now, but I was listeing to the BA podcast and they made the point that usually high school players are generally ranked as high as they are going to get after the summer, while college guys tend to rise during the season. So I would not be suprised if the Sox were on those three right now, and wait and see which college guys pop up during the year.

QUOTE (Quin @ Oct 3, 2017 -> 01:54 PM) But at the same time, it harms teams that might have had cap space back then but not now. This a real sticky situation. What's the punishment for giving draft picks illegal incentives. I feel like the minimum should be counting the incentive towards their bonus pool and giving the penalty that goes with it. This article has a rundown of the penalties, and you would have to think it would put them in the 5-10% or 10-15% overages which result in a lost first round pick and a lost second round pick for the higher group. If they went over 15%, its lost first round picks for the next two years, so that would be crazy bad. No matter which penalty, they should get the appropriate one and also void the contract so teams don't try to do this kind of thing and make sure they're just in the lowest group and hope they don't get caught, but lessen the damage if they do.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Oct 3, 2017 -> 02:26 PM) Oh yeah. Blocked that one from my mind. What year was that? It's been at least 4-5 years. Edit: Got off the lazy train and looked it up. Since 2000. It's been Honel 2001, Gonzalez in 2004 and Hawkins and Barnum (sandwich) in 2012. It doesn't happen often and doesn't turn out well. Yeah, we don't have a good history, but aren't all of those from the old draft structure where you could spend as much as you wanted, so we went cheap and didn't want to pay for any actually good players, so we just took athletes who couldn't even play baseball. This is a new system and we have a new man in charge and almost everyone agrees that to get those superstar players, you gotta get them out of high school. Would I rather take a less risky college player if all things were equal? Hell yeah. But all things are not equal because there are fewer colleges players with the cielings of these high school players, and it doesn't appear to be one in this draft yet.

I would do that trade in a heart beat. His contract might not be great right now, but in a few years when all of our guys are reaching their big arb years, the contract may look relatively normal. I also think that with his new approach at the plate he can sustain this level of production, though not this many home runs. Plus, giving up Dunning and Adolfo doesn't leave leave any holes because both of those are really positions of strength in our system.

If he were declared a free agent, I'm assuming teams would sign him to minor league free agent deals, but how do those deals work? Is it the same as an international contract where all the money is in bonuses and he gets the league minimum when he comes up?

Based on the individual trades and other acquisitions, I'd give it an 8 because I didn't like the Yankees trade and I think we might have gotten a few too many older guys that might put us in a 40 man roster crunch really soon. However, when I look back over the past year and see the sheer number of good prospects we got and how it looks like this rebuild will only really take 2 years for us to be competitive again while other teams are floundering around for years, I have to give it a 10. The goal of the rebuild was to put us in position to win a World Series and be competitive for a long time, and I think after this year we are well on our way.

QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 3, 2017 -> 09:01 AM) The benefit to Maitan is it does not need to be the same bonus structure, so people could spread cost out more easily. There's just going to be very little constraints on teams. I couldn't even put a number on it. I'd say at very least we are past jose abreu territory. I did not even think about this. If this is the case, I completely take back my predicition and can confidently say I have no idea how much he is going to get.

QUOTE (Palehosefan @ Oct 2, 2017 -> 09:21 PM) When you combine the wood bat problems with the defensive issues, you can see why teams are scared off. He will put up another big year with metal bats, but teams will be thinking "so what? why can't he hit with wood bats?" Something interesting about the defensive questions I saw was one scout or analyst said they thought he actually had a chance to stick in the outfield and play passable defense. I can't for the life of me remember where I saw that though. But his profile, even with the question marks, looks a lot better and less risky if he can play outfield.

It will be a really interesting case study in how much the draft limits contract size if he becomes an unrestricted free agent. He's ranked lower and is younger and therefore more risky than Luis Robert, so it should be below the $25 mil he recieved, but it would probably be above the highest draft bonus. Wild guess, it would end up being around $10-12 mil.

QUOTE (GermanSock @ Oct 2, 2017 -> 05:25 PM) The market is bullish on corner bats but rooker fell because he was old for a draftee (either senior or redshirt junior, I don't remember) on top of being a corner guy and not the greatest athlete. If a corner guy is clearly the best bat in the draft he usually won't go top3 but usually top10-12 at least because one team will take the chance. But rooker also was 22.5 years old when drafted which probably was too much for the teams to take him first. If beer has a good final year (1000 plus ops) he will go top8 or so. I think the recent reports are overreacting a little. Now if he has a really mediocre final year he might drop to the second round but even then some team with a comp pick will take their chance in the 30s or so. I think one of the big things dragging Beer down right now is his bad history with wood bats. This was his second summer playing with wood bats and he looked bad both times. That will be hard to make up for during the college season, but it really just takes one team that is willing to risk it for him to go high, so I think he'll get drafted higher than his projections, but his projections will be low.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Oct 2, 2017 -> 12:51 PM) Nander de Sedas and RHP Ethan Hankins are my two favorite players in the class. I think they'll be in 1-1 discussion come June. For those of you that don't have a BA subscription: 1. Tigers: Brady Singer RHP Florida 2. Giants: Ethan Hankins RHP HS GA 3. Phillies: Brice Turang SS HS CA 4. White Sox: Nander de Sedas SS HS FL 5. Reds: Nolan Gorman 3B HS AZ 6. Mets: Shane McClanahan LHP South Florida 7. Padres: Casey Mize RHP Auburn 8. Braves: Kumar Rocker RHP HS GA 9. Athletics: Nick Madrigal SS/2B Oregon State 10. Pirates: Matthew Liberatore LHP HS AZ 12. Toronto: Greyson Jenista 1B Wichita State 13. Marlins: Jarred Kelenic OF HS WI 23. Yankees: Triston Casas IB HS FL 25 DBacks: Travis Swaggerty OF South Alabama I've been following a lot of the draft stuff but it seems like there isn't much talk about De Sedas. In a very sincere way, what makes you think he will be in consideration for 1-1? I saw that he just lost out to Gorman at the UA home run derby and that he is a good athlete, but I couldn't find much more about him even though he is ranked so high.

Also no Luken Baker or Konor Pilkington, who other sites had rated very highly. On the HS side, no Alek Thomas, Joe Gray Jr, or Xavier Edwards. At this point, I would like any of those guys in the second round. If we do take De Sedas, I would like Pilkington, Gray, Thomas (in that order) to help balance the draft and what we already have in the system.

If we end up going pitcher or infielder in the first round, which it seems like we will, Thomas or Gray Jr. in the second round would be a nice high upside outfield talent to develop. Something else we have to consider for guys like Gray Jr though is whether they will sign if they aren't first round picks or if they think they can go to college and really help their stock.

QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 29, 2017 -> 09:12 AM) Reds at Cubs: Fri, 1:20 Stephenson vs Quintana Sat, 3:05 Stephens vs Lester Sun, 2:20 McGuire vs Arrieta Sox at Indians: Fri, 6:10 Pelfrey vs Bauer Sat, 6:10 Fulmer vs Kluber Sun, 2:10 Volstad vs Tomlin Hopefully the Cubs starters are just in there for 5 innings. The Sox magic number over the Reds is 3. Hey Q, I know we did you a solid by sending you to a playoff team, so could you do us one and just throw some lobs out there for the Reds? Please and thank you!

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2018-...yTJUTcBp41Ai.97 BA Hish School Top 50. Top 3 of Hankins, Turang, and Nolan Gorman. Kelenic checks in at #5. The Gorman ranking is interesting. I really like his bat, but I think most thought he couldn't stick at SS, so if he can I really like him. Other names of note: Triston Casas @ 14 Alek Thomas @ 20 Joe Gray Jr. @ 28

Considering some say Jenista and Bohm are both future 1B, Beer could be the fourth college 1B off the board if these rankings stood. That's quite a drop. But looking at the draft as a whole, usually a little more than half the picks before our second round pick are college players, and we will probably have a pick around 45, so college players that would be available would probably be in the mid-20s in these rankings.

Does anyone know approximately how many picks there are going to be betweem the first and second round? I'm trying to figure out where our second round pick is likely to be. From what I understand the competitive balance B picks from last year will be after the first and there were 8 of those last year, but I don't know if that changes from year to year. There are also picks for qualifying offer free agents that sign for more than $50mil guranteed for revenue sharing payee teams, but I don't know what teams those are or if they have any players that are likely to meet that number.

Mets won, so I think that means we are locked in to a top 5 pick. The Reds won as well, so magic number to secure #4 is 3 or 4 depending on the outcome of these extra innings.

QUOTE (Quin @ Sep 27, 2017 -> 11:22 AM) Lol if Turang or Singer is there at 4 if we pick there I don't know if its that simple. Apparently Turang has some question marks about his bat and Singer has medical questions. They obviously both have a ton of talent, but other guys might rise above them in the next year.

New Perfect Game 2018 Draft Top 150 Ranking Newly updated top 150 ranking needs a subscription, so if anyone has that and wants to share that would be awesome. The top 10 that they do show is interesting though. 1 Ethan Hankins RHP Forsyth Central (GA) 2 Jarred Kelenic OF Waukesha West (WI) 3 Ryan Rolison LHP Mississippi 4 Casey Mize RHP Auburn 5 Kumar Rocker RHP North Oconee (GA) 6 Jackson Kowar RHP Florida 7 Nick Madrigal 2B Oregon State 8 Brice Turang SS Santiago (CA) 9 Shane McClanahan LHP South Florida 10 Nander De Sedas SS Montverde Academy (FL) I think the big things that stick out to me are that Singer is not even in the top 10, Rolison is #3, and Turang all the way down at #8. It does make me feel better about how much I like Kelenic, but gets me scared that he won't be there when we pick. Hankins at #1 puts the question out there again if a HS RHP will ever go #1.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Sep 22, 2017 -> 02:00 PM) The being bad with wood bats is highly concerning with him. Me too, but if he falls to our second pick, is it worth the risk then?