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This is so interesting to me. It seems like this might be the international path that so many want to see happen in basketball. If MLB players are getting paid very little for their best years, maybe some of the HS guys decide to forgo college and just go straight to Japan, make real money for 5 or 6 years, and then come over to MLB when they reach international free agency at 25. Or maybe they have an agreement to post him in a few years when he is still under the bonus pool rules but is closer to the majors so he doesn't have to spend as much time in the shitty living conditions of the minors while still getting the same amount of money he wanted from the draft.

It might be a matter of semantics, but I disagree that its always good to have a high contact rate. Like its been said, it could lead to low percentage contact. Its good to have great barrel control and a low swing and miss rate, but to me that is different than just a high contact rate.

This video along with the baseball rebellion swing analysis gives me hope for him. It seems like he naturally has a swing to drive the ball in the air, but trying to take everything the opposite way has him waiting on pitches which results in him being on top of them and putting them on the ground. At the HS level that works because of the bad defense and his speed, but I feel like if he simply gets rid of that approach and tries pulling more balls you are going to see a lot more liners and fly balls. Maybe in athletic profile, but not really as a hitter. While Timmy has too much swing and miss, Abrams apparently rarely swings and misses, which is actually to his detriment a bit because he puts everything in play instead of waiting for something to drive.

Just listened to Effectively Wild and they had Longenhagen on. There is starting to be buzz that its a sure thing Rutschman goes #1. Basically he is too good for Elias to do his preferred thing of going underslot.

Also says the Marlins would potentially take Abrams, so we might not be able to get him as underslot as we thought. If anything, Vaughn might actually have more of a chance to fall a bit.

Listening to the FG podcast now and here are some of the relevant draft notes: -- Again compared Vaughn to Konerko, though stated a scout said that might be light. Brought up the point that it seems like some of Vaughn's "struggles" (compared to last year) are because his lineup is so weak that he is getting pitched around so he is changing his approach just to try and help his team win. Might be a 55 FV. -- Abrams got a comp to Kenny Lofton; similar swing, 80 runner, sneaky power that is currently a gap guy. 55 raw now with probable 60 future when he fills out, but not the swing or approach to tap into it currently. Probably projects to 60 hit, 40 power, but because he is more raw than Witt there is more room for changes and adjustments. Some scouts said he is an 80 runner with 60 power, which basically doesn't exist in the minors outside of Jordyn Adams who projects to 60 power. Is kind of like Xavier Edwards from last years draft, but just more of everything (explosiveness, size, power). High variance where he goes in the top 10. -- Witt comped to Trevor Story. Enough hit to get to the big power in game, good defensive short, good athlete. 60 now power, 65 future with the swing and approach to tap into it. -- Bleday has a traditional right field profile with a little more feel to hit than that. Fast moving college hitter. More quick notes on other guys in the top half of the first that I don't think we really need to know about. About draft strategies and rumors: -- It seems like Witt is the pick at #2. -- If true, the O's could use it to leverage Vaughn or Rutschman into underslot because otherwise they would fall to #3. (If people want craziness, they should hope Vaughn is willing to go underslot more than Rutschman and the O's take him #1, Royals stick to Witt #2, and the we get Rutschman.) -- D-backs are everywhere. No idea if they are going prep or college heavy or just preparing for everything. -- The last final month is when you can really tell who teams are on with personnel at games, so expect more of that.

The Braves basically have to take a signable college guy with that pick. I'm pretty sure that they don't get compensation if they can't sign a guy again, so that gives more leverage to whoever they pick, so taking a bit of a reach to ensure they sign might not be the worst idea.

Apparently the Marlins are interested in Yiddi Cappe. https://pelotacubanablog.com/2019/05/09/segun-mlb-pipeline-yiddi-cappe-es-el-prospecto-cubano-1-para-el-2-de-julio/

Another cuban who is ~25 was just declared a free agent. Raico Santos. High OBP, speedy CF, leadoff type.

I'm going to guess they still have us taking Vaughn, but will include the info in the write up. Its probably the same Abrams love we heard earlier.

I have a bad feeling about this

The hit tool is fine and is probably one of his strong points. The way FG does the current ratings is to kind of have a base case for the level and then put 5 (or rarely 10) above or below that level. For HS hitters, a 25 current hit means its a plus tool because the base for high level prospects is a 20. If its someone who they have questions on the hit, they will have a current 20 and then a below 50 future. For college players the base is a 30 with most being at most 5 above or below that. When you take all of that into consideration you can better understand their ratings. For example, Vaughn only has a 40 current hit which you would think is low, but its actually the best because its two levels (10 total) above the base of 30. It is also reflected in his higher future rating. On the other hand, Bishop and Abrams both have a 25 current hit, but Abrams hit is considered a strength while Bishop's is considered a weakness. That is because Abrams is above the usual for HS guys while Bishop is below the usual for college guys.

If this is true and he heard them, I wonder if the other sites will start connecting us to him too.

This is a bad year to take a lesser talent just to try to float a guy. There is a very clear top 3 players so we shouldn't skip on that third guy to risk floating a guy when the Diamondbacks have more pool money and 4 picks between our picks. On top of the risk that floating him doesn't work, you are also doing it for a high school righty, basically the most risky demographic in the draft. So we would just be compounding risk upon risk if that is our plan.

Comp I saw from two different places was Paul Konerko. No joke.

Witt ahead of Abrams seems to fit with what the BA guys were saying on their last podcast. They basically said everyone they talked to had Rutchman a clear #1 and then Vaughn and Witt as tier two with a few guys adding a third name to that list. Just based on those top 100 numbers you can see where the tiers are. At this point with 5 weeks still left, I really hope we just take whichever of the top 3 guys falls to us.

I've had a similar sprain and I can't even remember which ankle it was on.

I want Crow-Armstrong or Veen, but we'll probably end up taking Daniel Cabrera.

Jesse Sanchez is confirming the deal. Also there is this bit of scouting on him: https://www.mlb.com/news/white-sox-and-elijah-tatis-agree-to-deal?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

I just saw a tweet that I lost now but I DMed the guy asking for confirmation. From looking through their instagrams, it looks like I might have misunderstood the translation though because I only see the two. I'll update my post if/when the guy gets back to me. Edit: looks like there is another brother, though he looks too young to really know if he is good or not. https://www.instagram.com/p/BtKjMFQBoaq/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

It sounds like there is a third Tatis brother that might be the best of all of them. Hopefully that family goodwill actually pays off this time.

Is it though? He is already 17 so he is eligible, we are just agreeing to it for next period. That seems different than agreeing to a deal with someone who isn't even eligible yet.

Article says for 2019-2020 signing period. EDIT: Weirdly, it also says this: I am going to guess that is just a case of something being lost in translation and it actually meaning an agreement instead of an actual signing.

If something is up with his arm or shoulder, then whoever did the physical for his extension should be pretty nervous.